It depends on how long they can maintain more hashing power than the rest of the combined bitcoin network.
If they are just tying to replace a single block, and can only maintain the high hash rate for 10 minutes or so, then you're right, the attack will fail at least as often as it succeeds.
The longer they can maintain more hashing power than the rest of the network (and the higher above 50% that they are), the higher the probability that they'll pull off a successful attack.