54% difficulty increase in 3 days | Bitcointalksearch.org

borito4

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Quote from: Jazkal on June 22, 2011, 04:03:27 PM

Quote from: borito4 on June 22, 2011, 11:37:13 AM

Im also mining in texas... and I have 0 AC costs. Running my cards in the garage yields ~5c higher temps than running them inside, only added cost is my 4 box fans @ 75w each. My 4 rigs @8.5c/KwH are using ~5.25 in cost per day, while putting out ~2.5g/hash. Each rig is pulling down around 500-750W, Unclocking the memory to ~340 helped cut the machine usage by almost 100W per box.

What is the temp in the garage? 100* F?

Yeah Around that. ~38c Ambient temp, and around 45c idle temp on the GPUs.
Full load all the cards are around ~79c

Mousepotato

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Seal Cub Clubbing Club

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 22, 2011, 02:05:07 PM

Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 22, 2011, 02:02:39 PM

Well that depends on mining hardware and electricity costs. But according to this it would still yield a profit even at 17$ a bitcoin! Try it!

$17/bitcoin yields a profit at 7M difficulty. But that doesn't factor in the hardware costs, right, only electrical costs? And profit of $0.0000000001 is really profit? Does that factor in the transaction costs for dwolla or mtgox? Is 'it is still profitable' a reasonable statement, with fees?

What about the investment in hardware?

It's a much nicer picture if you factor in a BTC value of $60 at 7M difficulty. I mean as long as we're playing Nostradamus here.

Jazkal

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Quote from: borito4 on June 22, 2011, 11:37:13 AM

Im also mining in texas... and I have 0 AC costs. Running my cards in the garage yields ~5c higher temps than running them inside, only added cost is my 4 box fans @ 75w each. My 4 rigs @8.5c/KwH are using ~5.25 in cost per day, while putting out ~2.5g/hash. Each rig is pulling down around 500-750W, Unclocking the memory to ~340 helped cut the machine usage by almost 100W per box.

What is the temp in the garage? 100* F?

Synaesthesia

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Quote from: [Coins!] on June 22, 2011, 03:41:10 PM

Kk. I am too. But I don't know if my 9 coins (expected total output at 330Mhash) will be worth much. Hope so : )

Economics is a social science, not an empirical science - thus hard to predict

When it comes to investment, I guess the value has to do with confidence in it - as we have seen with the Mt. Gox crash, but I have confidence in bitcoin, that's why I'm investing in it.

[Coins!]

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Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 22, 2011, 03:18:36 PM

@coins yeah that's true 3 x 6970 just not worth it right now, but why I would rather look to get 2nd hand 5830's and 5850's and sell them again. Also I'm looking at bitcoins as a long-term investment.

Kk. I am too. But I don't know if my 9 coins (expected total output at 330Mhash) will be worth much. Hope so : )

Synaesthesia

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@coins yeah that's true 3 x 6970 just not worth it right now, but why I would rather look to get 2nd hand 5830's and 5850's and sell them again. Also I'm looking at bitcoins as a long-term investment.

iopq

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 12:06:34 PM

I think the right answer is that there's a delay in reaction -- things don't happen instantaneously.

The Mt. Gox hack was only less than 3 days ago, for crying out loud! (I know, it seems like a LONG time ago...)

it feels like months ago

[Coins!]

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Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 22, 2011, 02:07:10 PM

Yes no transaction costs and no hardware costs taken into account. Sure it's not much profit. Remember you can sell hardware to recoup some cost Wink

So I would do that in September if the BTC price is still the same!

Ok so let's say we're mining 1.0Ghash (3 6970 cards at $300 ea). We get 9 bitcoins during the 9 days of 877k difficulty.

Then we hit 1.3-1.4M difficulty, it lasts 9 days and we get 6 btc.

Then we hit 1.9M difficulty, 9 days, we get 4 btc

Then we hit 3M difficulty, 9 days, 2.6 btc

Then we hit 4.4M difficulty, 9 days, mine up 1.7 btc

Then we hit 6.7M difficulty, 9 days, mine up 1.1 btc

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Grand total: 24.6 BTC. $17 ea = $418.00.

Initial investment: -$600 for 3 cards.

BTC value at $17: $418.

Cost to mine for 54 days: ($0.25/kwh)* (1.2kW system to pull 1.0Ghash) *24*54 = -$403.2

$418 -$600 -$403 = -$587

I am still not seeing any profit here.

To get profit, you'll need BTC to be worth about $40.75, and then you end up making $0.45 for 54 days of hashing, when factoring in the cost of just 3 cards and energy, not the CPU/Tower/Powersupply/Ram/Hdd/Etc.

45 cents is not profit. It pays for the hardware, and then maybe you could sell them used, for 50-75% of their value. But you still have to factor in the cost of CPU/RAM/Tower/Powersupply/HDD/Cables/Etc.

Synaesthesia

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Yes no transaction costs and no hardware costs taken into account. Sure it's not much profit. Remember you can sell hardware to recoup some cost Wink

So I would do that in September if the BTC price is still the same!

[Coins!]

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Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 22, 2011, 02:02:39 PM

Well that depends on mining hardware and electricity costs. But according to this it would still yield a profit even at 17$ a bitcoin! Try it!

$17/bitcoin yields a profit at 7M difficulty. But that doesn't factor in the hardware costs, right, only electrical costs? And profit of $0.0000000001 is really profit? Does that factor in the transaction costs for dwolla or mtgox? Is 'it is still profitable' a reasonable statement, with fees?

What about the investment in hardware?

Synaesthesia

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Quote from: bcpokey on June 22, 2011, 12:35:44 PM

it should be noted that for that to make any sense the quantity X needs to be a function of time, which it is not.

Sure it is. Total hashing rate changes with time. And here's a graph of it.

Quote from: [Coins!] on June 22, 2011, 01:03:32 PM

So, what does the price / profitability need to be at 7M difficulty, which it will hit in 6 more increases, given 50% difficulty-jumps per increase?

Well that depends on mining hardware and electricity costs. But according to this it would still yield a profit even at 17$ a bitcoin! Try it!

[Coins!]

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Quote from: goldbit on June 22, 2011, 12:26:04 PM

Here is my simplified model. Tongue

Let P be the bitcoin price or more preciously, the profitability at this moment.
Let X be the total machine power in the network.
v = dX/dt = the change in new machine power in the network, or the velocity.
a = dX^2/dt^2 = the change in velocity -- the acceleration, which I believe is a function of P.
Let f be the friction, which is a function of both P and difficulty level.

If we solve this 2nd order differential equation and set the boundary condition, we should be able to get a equation for X.

It should note that the a is a leading indicator, while X is a lagging indicator, meaning the surge in bitcoin price a few weeks ago increases a instantly, but the change in X reflects a couple weeks later. It is logical to think that when a surge in price, people will start investing in new machines, but the new machines take time to procure, ship, and assemble.

The change in difficulty level affect f, which is a feedback factor. It should adjust v and drive the profitability to zero in the long run when the system is in equilibrium.

So, what does the price / profitability need to be at 7M difficulty, which it will hit in 6 more increases, given 50% difficulty-jumps per increase?

AngelusWebDesign

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Wow, we DO have a few smart people in this sub-forum!

I must say, you stand out like a sore thumb... Wink

bcpokey

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it should be noted that for that to make any sense the quantity X needs to be a function of time, which it is not.

goldbit

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Here is my simplified model. Tongue

Let P be the bitcoin price or more preciously, the profitability at this moment.
Let X be the total machine power in the network.
v = dX/dt = the change in new machine power in the network, or the velocity.
a = dX^2/dt^2 = the change in velocity -- the acceleration, which I believe is a function of P.
Let f be the friction, which is a function of both P and difficulty level.

If we solve this 2nd order differential equation and set the boundary condition, we should be able to get a equation for X.

It should note that the a is a leading indicator, while X is a lagging indicator, meaning the surge in bitcoin price a few weeks ago increases a instantly, but the change in X reflects a couple weeks later. It is logical to think that when a surge in price, people will start investing in new machines, but the new machines take time to procure, ship, and assemble.

The change in difficulty level affect f, which is a feedback factor. It should adjust v and drive the profitability to zero in the long run when the system is in equilibrium.

AngelusWebDesign

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Quote from: [Coins!] on June 22, 2011, 12:19:36 PM

Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 22, 2011, 11:56:37 AM

Difficulty growth cannot continue indefinitely, because the network cannot be infinitely large.

Ok you are correct, but how many difficulties will it take before we reach an equilibrium?

Only 60,000 mtgox accounts in existence. There are 330,000,000 people in the USA alone.

I think there are plenty of unused GPU cycles out there, and the more media attention this garners, the more interested parties will fire up mining rigs. That doesn't even count the gaming systems for WoW or Secondlife or any of the millions of PC games that are out there that don't do anything all day while their owners are at work. All an owner needs to do is turn on guiminer and leave.

We're not anywhere near the saturation point of the network.

Yes, someday people will look back and consider US the early adopters.

cothoms

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I think we will see slightly decelerated growth even on the next increase, a few weeks from now... just enough time for the lag to start to kick in.

[Coins!]

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Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 22, 2011, 11:56:37 AM

Difficulty growth cannot continue indefinitely, because the network cannot be infinitely large.

Ok you are correct, but how many difficulties will it take before we reach an equilibrium?

Only 60,000 mtgox accounts in existence. There are 330,000,000 people in the USA alone.

I think there are plenty of unused GPU cycles out there, and the more media attention this garners, the more interested parties will fire up mining rigs. That doesn't even count the gaming systems for WoW or Secondlife or any of the millions of PC games that are out there that don't do anything all day while their owners are at work. All an owner needs to do is turn on guiminer and leave.

We're not anywhere near the saturation point of the network.

tsvekric

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Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 22, 2011, 12:04:39 PM

Wonder what difficulty we will eventually stabilize at? And sometime in the future payout will decrease to 25BTC per block too. You gotta think that it will just push up the value.

Yeah, it should push up the value (or rather, not push down on the value as much) because the supply of bitcoins will be increasing at a slower rate.
However, it's not like bitcoins will double over night on that day - yet mining will be (about) half as profitable. Difficulty will definitely fall (price determines difficulty)

AngelusWebDesign

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I think the right answer is that there's a delay in reaction -- things don't happen instantaneously.

The Mt. Gox hack was only less than 3 days ago, for crying out loud! (I know, it seems like a LONG time ago...)

Someone could have ordered more mining hardware on Saturday, and wouldn't even HAVE IT YET -- nevermind be able to decide what to do with it now (mine with it, sell it, return it, etc.)

There's a bit of inertia/delayed reaction involved here.

Synaesthesia

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Wonder what difficulty we will eventually stabilize at? And sometime in the future payout will decrease to 25BTC per block too. You gotta think that it will just push up the value.

Zman0101

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I agree. If the price of the coin goes up... Its an even balance but, who knows.

Synaesthesia

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Difficulty growth cannot continue indefinitely, because the network cannot be infinitely large.

Zman0101

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I'm doing 3200 mega hash and my rigs cost me $250 a month on electricity.

borito4

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 10:41:02 AM

Quote from: Chucksta on June 22, 2011, 02:01:54 AM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 12:54:04 AM

It's amazing that the mining hardware just keeps piling in --

Yes, but than again it is still profitable. I thought mining would be over by now, but it just does not want to give up.

My 8 miners acquired 3.5 BTC in the last 22 hours. Even at $10 per BTC, that is $35. My electricity max per box (4 PCs), is roughly $1 for the day, therefore $4 in total.

I reckon that a lot of the new miners are just people using equipment that they already had, maybe with a gfx card upgrade or two. They've watched and listened while someone they know has had their computers making money for them, and finally they have decided to give it a go. "Hell, even if it's just a few dollars, a few dollars a day pays for fuel

", they may reason.

I seem to have about the same mining income as you -- only I have 12 cards. All pretty efficient ones, too (5800 series). I run a pretty lean ship here. But my electricity cost is around 74 kW/h per day. I keep close tabs on my electricity usage. I regularly write down what the meter on the side of my house reads, so I'm familiar with my normal daily kW/h usage. I also own a Kill-a-Watt meter.

I'm including the cost of extra air conditioning. I live in Texas, where we haven't had a cloudy day in weeks, and the temp hits 105 some days.

I think some guys are reporting less cost, because they don't (or can't) count the cost of fans, A/C, etc.

Anyhow, 74 kW/h comes out to $6.51. And that's a 8.8c per kW/h, which is certainly average if not cheaper than most. And that figure is super-accurate as well. I took my electric bill, subtracted the Statement Fee ($15.00), and divided what was left by the number of kW/h I used -- which equaled 8.8 cents.

You're saying $1 each for 4 machines, which have enough graphics cards to produce 3.5 BTC/day? That's 3.3 GH/s.

I think everyone needs to go back to the drawing board and double check how much they're REALLY spending on mining. You might be surprised.

Matthew

Im also mining in texas... and I have 0 AC costs. Running my cards in the garage yields ~5c higher temps than running them inside, only added cost is my 4 box fans @ 75w each. My 4 rigs @8.5c/KwH are using ~5.25 in cost per day, while putting out ~2.5g/hash. Each rig is pulling down around 500-750W, Unclocking the memory to ~340 helped cut the machine usage by almost 100W per box.

rograz

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Quote from: jasonk on June 22, 2011, 03:55:27 AM

Yea totally not cool. I'm shocked that the network is growing at this rate considering the drop in coin prices + mt gox has been down....... INSANE!

Still delayed reaction to the surge up to 30$/BTC imo, we might see a decline in growth reflecting current events in about 2 weeks time.

AngelusWebDesign

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Quote from: Chucksta on June 22, 2011, 02:01:54 AM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 12:54:04 AM

It's amazing that the mining hardware just keeps piling in --

Yes, but than again it is still profitable. I thought mining would be over by now, but it just does not want to give up.

My 8 miners acquired 3.5 BTC in the last 22 hours. Even at $10 per BTC, that is $35. My electricity max per box (4 PCs), is roughly $1 for the day, therefore $4 in total.

I reckon that a lot of the new miners are just people using equipment that they already had, maybe with a gfx card upgrade or two. They've watched and listened while someone they know has had their computers making money for them, and finally they have decided to give it a go. "Hell, even if it's just a few dollars, a few dollars a day pays for fuel

", they may reason.

I seem to have about the same mining income as you -- only I have 12 cards. All pretty efficient ones, too (5800 series). I run a pretty lean ship here. But my electricity cost is around 74 kW/h per day. I keep close tabs on my electricity usage. I regularly write down what the meter on the side of my house reads, so I'm familiar with my normal daily kW/h usage. I also own a Kill-a-Watt meter.

I'm including the cost of extra air conditioning. I live in Texas, where we haven't had a cloudy day in weeks, and the temp hits 105 some days.

I think some guys are reporting less cost, because they don't (or can't) count the cost of fans, A/C, etc.

Anyhow, 74 kW/h comes out to $6.51. And that's a 8.8c per kW/h, which is certainly average if not cheaper than most. And that figure is super-accurate as well. I took my electric bill, subtracted the Statement Fee ($15.00), and divided what was left by the number of kW/h I used -- which equaled 8.8 cents.

You're saying $1 each for 4 machines, which have enough graphics cards to produce 3.5 BTC/day? That's 3.3 GH/s.

I think everyone needs to go back to the drawing board and double check how much they're REALLY spending on mining. You might be surprised.

Matthew

[Coins!]

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Quote from: Chucksta on June 22, 2011, 02:01:54 AM

Yes, but than again it is still profitable. I thought mining would be over by now, but it just does not want to give up.

My 8 miners acquired 3.5 BTC in the last 22 hours. Even at $10 per BTC, that is $35. My electricity max per box (4 PCs), is roughly $1 for the day, therefore $4 in total.

I reckon that a lot of the new miners are just people using equipment that they already had, maybe with a gfx card upgrade or two. They've watched and listened while someone they know has had their computers making money for them, and finally they have decided to give it a go. "Hell, even if it's just a few dollars, a few dollars a day pays for fuel

", they may reason.

Profitable compared to electricity, but... how much did those 8 miners cost you to set up? What is your ROI for the next 6 difficulty increases if they're all 50%, and all happen in 9-12 days?

Cluster2k

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Quote from: Chucksta on June 22, 2011, 02:01:54 AM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 12:54:04 AM

It's amazing that the mining hardware just keeps piling in --

Yes, but than again it is still profitable. I thought mining would be over by now, but it just does not want to give up.

My 8 miners acquired 3.5 BTC in the last 22 hours. Even at $10 per BTC, that is $35. My electricity max per box (4 PCs), is roughly $1 for the day, therefore $4 in total.

My stats are that I'm earning $17 a day (taking into account currency conversions and MtGox fees) but power costs $5 per day (measured, not just estimated from parts specs). Not everyone pays a few cents per kilowatt like US/Canadian citizens seem to do. With a 50% difficulty increase that'll be $12 per day but still burning $5 in power. Does it make sense to have $1000 of hardware producing less than $5 a day? (Don't forget taxes must be paid on income). Bitcoin's USD$ value did not increase at all in the last two difficulty increases, and there is no evidence this trend is about to change. MtGox's little adventure is unlikely to have a stimulating effect on speculators either.

I have a feeling many bitcoin users are piling in without giving regard to the cost of power (and the cost of cooling where required). Pretty soon they'll be thinking "free cash!" while spending $1.10 to make $1.

BtcNmcMiner

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Quote from: Chucksta on June 22, 2011, 02:01:54 AM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 12:54:04 AM

It's amazing that the mining hardware just keeps piling in --

I reckon that a lot of the new miners are just people using equipment that they already had, maybe with a gfx card upgrade or two. They've watched and listened while someone they know has had their computers making money for them, and finally they have decided to give it a go. "Hell, even if it's just a few dollars, a few dollars a day pays for fuel

", they may reason.

That's how I got into it. I'm mining on a PC that I built in February because my old one was about 3 years old and getting dated. The hardware was just sitting there running 24/7 anyways when I stumbled into bitcoins and I decided it was worth it to give it a go. So far my mining proceds have paid for an added video card so even if I stop now I'm still ahead.

no_alone

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Yahhh its crazy.
We still at stable 50% increase each difficulty jump.

jasonk

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Yea totally not cool. I'm shocked that the network is growing at this rate considering the drop in coin prices + mt gox has been down....... INSANE!

Fjordbit

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firstbits.com/1kznfw

Quote from: pennytrader on June 21, 2011, 11:46:06 PM

Are you ready? Just wondering what would be the difficulty jump after that...

How do you find this out?

I found this page, but it shows just a 43.3% increase

Chucksta

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 12:54:04 AM

It's amazing that the mining hardware just keeps piling in --

Yes, but than again it is still profitable. I thought mining would be over by now, but it just does not want to give up.

My 8 miners acquired 3.5 BTC in the last 22 hours. Even at $10 per BTC, that is $35. My electricity max per box (4 PCs), is roughly $1 for the day, therefore $4 in total.

I reckon that a lot of the new miners are just people using equipment that they already had, maybe with a gfx card upgrade or two. They've watched and listened while someone they know has had their computers making money for them, and finally they have decided to give it a go. "Hell, even if it's just a few dollars, a few dollars a day pays for fuel

", they may reason.

AngelusWebDesign

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It's amazing that the mining hardware just keeps piling in --

d.james

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Firstbits: 12pqwk

about 250% firm.

pennytrader

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Are you ready? Just wondering what would be the difficulty jump after that...

Topic: 54% difficulty increase in 3 days (Read 6732 times)