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Symmetrick

hero member

Activity: 517

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on April 17, 2022, 03:36:01 AM

There is a technical indicator that helps to set price targets above ATH. Its fibonacci retracements (1.618, 2.618 3.618 and 4.236 levels). Same with ATL.

If these indicators really worked, then many would already be in big profit. Just buy bitcoin, set an indicator showing the new ATH, place an order and wait. Profit.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on April 17, 2022, 03:36:01 AM

But for me the best indicator that helps to spot market top for bitcoin when we are above ATH is google trends. Simply how many people are searching phrases like "how to buy bitcoin" "what is bitcoin" or simple "bitcoin". If we are at historical high ... most likely we are at the market top too.

In fact, this is not a stable indicator for determining the price of bitcoin, just like the increase in the hash power of the bitcoin network. Let's take data on Google queries for the last 12 months:

As you can see, when Bitcoin reached the last ATH in November, the number of requests was low. They began to decline after the May events and never rose again. But the market first fell, and then returned back to the values at which it was in April and May, but the requests did not respond to this in any way. So this metric doesn't always work well.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Symmetrick on April 17, 2022, 04:20:21 AM

If these indicators really worked, then many would already be in big profit. Just buy bitcoin, set an indicator showing the new ATH, place an order and wait. Profit.

To be honest i think that not many people are looking at indicators around ATH. They are too focused on finding the best looking yacht that they will buy with their paper gains ...if we will do another X10

Quote from: Symmetrick on April 17, 2022, 04:20:21 AM

In fact, this is not a stable indicator for determining the price of bitcoin, just like the increase in the hash power of the bitcoin network. Let's take data on Google queries for the last 12 months:
[...]
As you can see, when Bitcoin reached the last ATH in November, the number of requests was low. They began to decline after the May events and never rose again. But the market first fell, and then returned back to the values at which it was in April and May, but the requests did not respond to this in any way. So this metric doesn't always work well.

We hit new ATH by few %. We were not hiting new high after high. It was only a bull trap. I'm talking about situation when whole market is on fire. Just like during 2017 bubble or Jan-May 2021. And this indicator was quite good:

Not the perfect indicator, I agree. But it helps to spot when massive wave of retail investors have just found out about bitcoin. Definitely helpful.

Tytanowy Janusz

legendary

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Quote from: R20231030 on April 11, 2022, 05:48:59 AM

Who has any thoughts on this?

There is a technical indicator that helps to set price targets above ATH. Its fibonacci retracements (1.618, 2.618 3.618 and 4.236 levels). Same with ATL. But for me the best indicator that helps to spot market top for bitcoin when we are above ATH is google trends. Simply how many people are searching phrases like "how to buy bitcoin" "what is bitcoin" or simple "bitcoin". If we are at historical high ... most likely we are at the market top too.

topman21

legendary

Activity: 1176

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The price of Bitcoin cannot be recharged in the future with such technical indicators.In the case of trading platforms, technical indicators may be used and some similarities may be found. But it is very difficult to say at what stage in the future.Bitcoin will be in a very good position by 2026 and will be very popular with everyone in the world.

hd49728

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Not your keys, not your coins!

I think it is better to consider Bitcoin as an investment asset for long term. So with this approach, technical indicators or predictive models are unnecessary or at least not important.

What do long term investors need? A strong belief in Bitcoin which should be based on their knowledge of Bitcoin. Knowledge should not be too technical. They just need to have fundamental knowledge on Bitcoin total supply, halving, future supply that all should be enough to strengthen their belief in Bitcoin and its future price.

Indicators and models can not predict the market movement 100% accurately. Furthermore, long term investors don't actually need to predict price with indicators or models.

Ararbermas

sr. member

Activity: 2016

Merit: 283

For me technical indicators can be use only on the history of the graph and it can help us to determine the growth rate if it still have potential to increase or not, or should i say the strength of the trend?
and there's no way you can make prediction above ATH if you will not basing on the current resistance, supply zone which is the level where the price always landing and making correction before continually increasing, and base on my experienced its more accurate than technical indicators.

jackg

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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

There are ways to use technical formations to determine where the price might go after a breakout of a long continuation (such as bull flags - using flag poles to get a predictor).

These aren't very accurate but they are probably the most accurate way you can do it when the price hasn't ventured there already (personally, this is all I'd use).

There's a good chance the s2f ratio has not fully been invalidated yet too, bitcoin broke up for a second time through the resistance of the last and ended a few $k higher - although I don't look at s2f much it could be their prediction thst broke.

R20231030

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