Topic: 77% into the next Bitcoin halving (Read 388 times)

I am not saying we should be pessimistic, we need to be optimistic because if history repeats itself, bitcoin hits a new ATH, the one who benefits is us and no one else. I mean, we also need to have a plan for the worst case scenario because if we don't have any preparation and when it happens, we will panic. Things constantly repeat themselves in the past, but I feel it was too easy this time, and everyone already knew what was going to happen, so maybe things will change. Don't forget the saying: Bitcoin is unpredictable.

Many experienced crypto folks are 100% aware that there's something good and the increase will be there after the halving. That's why those that have understood it are going here and there telling that everyone should buy Bitcoin before the halving happens. It's because we're basing on history and these patterns have been visible in every cycle that happens. No, I haven't thought about that because I am one of those people who 100% believe that an increase will happen prior to halving.

If the demand for bitcoin didn't increase, how would altcoin skyrocket in price then? For Altcoin to soar in price it needs to follow suit of bitcoin to do so. That's to say if bitcoin increases in price, altcoin does the same. If bitcoin didn't, altcoin won't. So, therefore the demand for bitcoin will always be more than that of altcoins.

It is certain that bitcoin will increase in price during the bull run season but in the case of altcoin, no one knows the exert altcoin that will give much return in the bull run compared to bitcoin.

No one actually knows if bitcoin price go down or up in this period. But I think this should be not the only target for bitcoin investment the target should be long term. If the price go up, people who invested in bitcoin for only halving they will sell their coins and many other will follow this and the result will be on the market. Bitcoin will struggle because of that sudden wave of people selling their coins. I think the target for bitcoin investment should always be long term.

The chart is very accurate. We are currently at the bear the bottom of the next pump. Anyone selling his/her Bitcoin now is going to be unpleasantly surprised and do what they always do and buy at the top, when the price starts drooping again.

The halving event (I call it the halvening - combination of having and happening ) gives Bitcoin a tangible and logical reason for why the price rises.  Especially if you consider the long term potential of price long after near the last Bitcoin has been mined. I think we will see prices that stretch beyond 10^6 figures before the end of this decade and the coming of the next.

It's 2023, I think it's a bit old to call Bitcoin price appreciations a bubble.
A bubble in economics is an irrational increase in the price of a product, far above its intrinsic value, after which it crashes down when the demand wanes. This happened with the the tulip mania and also the housing bubble.

Bitcoin was mis-characterised to be in a bubble during the 2017 bull run due to general ignorance around it, we're five years from that now and the current price is higher than the bubble price of that cycle.

No way any website can predict the actual day of Bitcoin Halving correctly, I made a thread earlier which had all the Halving Countdowns in one post.
All of them were showing different dates for the Bitcoin Halving. So it being on 77% according to this website, is not going to be the most accurate data as of now.

Maybe after Bitcoin Halving? sure. But not yet.

I see that the price situation of bitcoin in recent times has been relatively stable and has trended up gradually over the past week. But it's not going too fast, and it's likely to turn around if there's no breaking news. So with halving events, the block reward reduction can create a perception of scarcity and potentially drive prices up. However, it is also impossible to predict that it will happen according to the above-mentioned points of view, so it is important to be very deliberate and cautious about the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market.

We still don't know how big the next bull run though after the block halving. Of course everyone is banking that it will be huge and so we continue to stack sats, accumulate as much as we can. Hopefully though those who are doing this will not just sell all their bitcoin in the bull run. What I mean is that it will become so scarce in the future that maybe yeah, take your profits, but still put some in your bag for the future. And I think you can still continue to save even at the start of the halving and then sell them at the peak of the price in 2025.

I predict that the Bitcoin halving will bring us closer to ATH or even beyond it. But of course it's not instant after the halving, it's possible that this process will happen a few months after the halving and I'm pretty sure about this. And also I don't really hope that the halving can increase the price of Bitcoin significantly, because if you get your hopes up and then it doesn't happen you're usually going to be disappointed, thats why I'm only responding to this halving normally, but if it does happen I'll also be very grateful.

We may be 77% of the way to the next halving, but we're about 50% away from the next price bubble.  Do your stacking now while those cheap coins are still out there, because once that halving hits they will start to disappear.  It usually takes about a year to a year and a half before the market overshoots on the demand side and causes a bubble.  You don't want to be buying during that period, so make sure that you scoop all the Bitcoin you want to own in the next year, because after that things are going to get frothy and you're going to want to be on the sell side (if you can ignore the hype and stick to your trading plan).

As an investor it is always ideal to think about the good, the bad, and the ugly. Every Bitcoin investor believes that the first quarter of next year will be a time for investors to reap from their patience, doggedness, and confidence in Bitcoin. Everybody already knows the risk involved in Bitcoin investment that is why we have to invest what we can afford to lose. I have come across many threads in the forum where people have gone to the extreme of taking loans to invest and even encouraging their aged retiring parents to invest their gratuity in Bitcoin because they are expecting so much gain during the bull run next year. I will always advise them to calm down and invest wisely and not greedily.       


There is every reason to be optimistic because demand will rise and supply will be limited. Don't also forget that crypto skeptics always buy Bitcoin when the price is high. Many uninformed people are motivated to buy when the price is rising but they are always scared to buy when the price is falling because they don't believe that the price will rise again. So I am expecting more people to buy, with the decrease in supply the price will definitely rise.   

Yes, you mean a famous phrase on Wall Street that says: “Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed” This is very possible, but given the three times in the history of halving, a new summit is expected.

I know this is not necessarily always repeated, but I like to be optimistic.

The usual sentiment around bitcoin halving is generally optimistic. The general thinking is that, if the demand stays robust and the production decreases, the price is bound to go up. That's why people are staking up while the price is somewhat stable.

It's correct that no one knows which way the market is going to respond after halving. But the general sentiment is positive and the people will try to cash out from this opportunity.

But have you ever thought of the opposite scenario? I still think that the movement of the market is still not wholly dependent on supply and demand, the market is still manipulated by some underground forces. So when people expect a bull run after the halving, the opposite is most likely to happen. Bitcoin usually won't move according to the will of the crowd. You don't have to spread the word about the halving because most know it and all look forward to it, so that's what I'm worried about.

I perfectly understand OP's doubts. On one hand, we have the "Past performance does not guarantee future performance" rule (although it is not something that has been applied to date) and, on the other hand, the market is maturing.

That said, I'm one of those mentioned who are waiting for a new ATH after next halving, but, although I'm a strong believer in Bitcoin, I'd never invest more than I can afford to lose. I will probably regret not risking more, the way I have regretted it in the past, but if ever the cycle doesn't repeat I'll still be fine. To me, it's a good thing not to be too greedy.

 The next halving is around April or May 2024, Bitcoin halving event has historically impacted its price, it's important to recognize that market dynamics can be unpredictable. These individuals push the limit of their understanding of market trends to predict price movements. Also, participants often find themselves at the receiving end of price swings, which is sometimes devastating, and other times, financially fulfilling. Diversification and staying informed about market trends and news can help make more informed investment decisions.

CANT WAIT!!!!!

Speculating will only give a different view of the price that will be reached later, whether it will repeat or there are some differences the Halving will still happen and be looked forward to. We just need to be prepared.

Being mentally prepared and accumulating valuable crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, will be more beneficial.
We don't know what will happen or what drama occurs before or after the Halving.
The crypto market may repeat itself, but it will not be completely the same.

Prepare mentally, with assets and money to spare for things that may go beyond our predictions.

I say let bitcoin halving continue as it would. Whatever happens we will face that with our own guts and experience. There will not be nl use in speculating about what happens or how the bull market occurs.

What I have seen from halving is that before the event bull run starts and after the event dumping starts but this might not repeat and hence don't get it into your heads. Before that happens traders could accumulate coins as much as possible at lower price. But all in all the norm accumulation of Bitcoin that people do should continue as normal, halving will not change our outlook much.

I would not call you pessimistic, this is just the way any trader or investor should behave, the market can take any direction regardless of our wishes or our expectations, and as such we need to be ready for anything which may happen.

That being said it should be obvious I am expecting things to move in a more positive direction, and even if I doubt that it will a smooth ride I still expect for the market to present an upward movement during the next year once the halving takes place.

Of course, everything is possible. Possibilities are open in all negative and positive directions, but let us be optimistic because this is what usually happens historically after every halving.

Every time there was a big rise and new peaks after the halving, so why not this time as well? It is better to spread the positive news because that will really help, since everyone is optimistic everyone will rush to buy more and collect and this will of course drive up the prices.

Bitcoin halving as an event has no direct effect on crypto price. If you follow the historical data, you will notice that the price did not rise in an instant after a day/hour or even month after halving, and therefore your friends who buy bitcoin to sell it after the halving will need to wait more time.

After 6-24 months of halving, the markets will begin to move to achieve some gains, and here is the perfect moment to enter the market as the profit potential is high, the loss is low and the wait is not long, perhaps after a year from now we will only see 10% profits, but inevitably after two years we will see Profits at a higher rate, so if you have a better investment opportunity, invest it and wait until after the Bitcoin halving for a quick return investment.

Deeper thinking: In each cycle, the price increase takes longer, meaning that the hypothesis of 6 months after halving for new ATH is considered less likely compared to 12 months or 24 months.

Not all cycles are the same and with future halvings when block rewards become smaller and Bitcoin price becomes more expensive, effects on price from Bitcoin halvings would be smaller.

Parobolic curves will occur with each halving. Only the growth intensity will be different. Very big in the past and will be smaller in future, it is what I believe about effects of future halvings on Bitcoin price.

3.5x from a previous all time high, I don't know but it is if you look at it from a previous all time high. If you look at it from now, with price under $30,000 that is half of a current all time high. If in 2024 or 2025, Bitcoin rises to $120,000, it will be 3x from today price. I don't care about 3.x or 3.5x from $69k.

Honestly I don’t think anything in this world can shake a bull run so hard it never recovers. Typically, bull runs have always been kinda invincible..

Remember, halving means Bitcoin gets twice as hard to mine. It’s likely gonna surprise us all.

I am looking forward to seeing how the next post-halving cycle develops, as this one disappointed expectations, and based on what happens in the next one we can get an idea of what is to come in the subsequent ones.


Well, the parabolic of this cycle has only given 3.5x the maximum of the previous cycle, it has certainly been the least parabolic of all the cycles, so I want to see what happens in the next one, because if the maximum return is 3.5 or less we can already get an idea that we are not going to have parabolic returns in the future. Probably good returns, yes, but with lower volatility, which is not a bad thing at all.

We are in a calm period before a next halving and before a next parabolic curve. Reward Era Comparison can help you comparing some latest cycles and the on-going cycle.

Will the parabolic storm come back? It will do come back certainly.

With another view, you can Compare bull markets.

When price is in a bear market, Dollar Cost Averaging is best. https://dcabtc.com/. DCA is perfect when bottom is found and I think we already saw the bottom of 2022 and 2023 bear market.

Each time I look at the price of Bitcoin, with the way it keeps fluctuating around a stagnant price of $27k-28k for a long, I try as much to remind myself that better times are coming. It won't be long before we'll see it happen. What will be will be. It's just a matter of time before the halving season and the bull run will come knocking at the door of the crypto sphere. For now, let's diligently build up our bitcoin holdings and wait for that to materialize. Since the price of bitcoin always rises during bull runs, the price of bitcoin is expected to soar soon than the previous bull runs that have already happened

The 150% increase falls significantly short of Bitcoin's previous all-time high, leading me to believe that this estimation underestimates the potential price surge this time around. Various factors influencing the global economy, particularly within the United States, contribute to a sense of cautious optimism for the upcoming bull run.

Yes although the rise seen in Bitcoin recently is not something we should be too excited about and I would not relate this little rise to the coming Bitcoin halving happening next year, I also believe their would lots of even that would happen before next year.

The halving has started to create much trends now and we should be expecting more people to join in soon, I believe more users would start to buy and keep Bitcoin in anticipation for a bull run.

But how would it be if The Bitcoin halving doesn't bring forth a bull run, is this something that can never happen, I would love to hear the opinion of other on this possibility.

Your friends seem more optimistic to have started investing in bitcoin and so should be someone who has followed the history of the effect of bitcoin halving especially after during 6 months - 1 year. Before the past halvings, there has always been fud that tends to instill fear on investors but only the strong willed invest for the long run and afterwards benefit from it. For example during the 2016 halving, there was the China struggle announcing ban on ico and bitcoin transaction and that caused the fear then and bitcoin price fluctuated between $600 - $700 in 2016 and after one year in 2017, 17th December it got an ATH of $20,089.
Likewise we also remember the third halving was in 2020 which was characterized by COVID-19, despite all challenges of economic stagnation, it was believed that social distancing worked in favour of online digital marketing and advertising, that led to the growth of bitcoin to an ATH of $64k. The next halving is around April or May 2024 , with my experience so far I don't think fud stop bitcoin price from over taking its previous ATH before another halving.  So it is a choice to invest or stay out

With the current state of the Bitcoin market, there is reason to believe that the price will rise soon.

Regardless of market conditions, Bitcoin is always in control; thus, there is no competition between Bitcoin and Altcoin. Even though some individuals prefer to acquire altcoins because they believe they will make more money than Bitcoin, they still look up to Bitcoin because the price of other coins is determined by the price of Bitcoin.

I guess you are right but the massive anticipation has made most new investors who are eager to sell off due to the proposed rise in price during the halving filled with anxiousness of the good news that bitcoin is actually coming to a period where your saved coins could yeild huge profits but everyone is just forgetting the fact that there is still a possibility that this fact can still be influenced by many things in the crypto ecosystem so if I were them I would just rather stay neutral and see what the market brings during next run on the bitcoin market.

Bitcoin is not competing with other coins for investors. Bitcoin is the most safe cryptocurrency, everything else is a huge gamble with negative expected value. Altcoins to Bitcoin is what penny stocks are to Apple.

#1 reason why the bull run could be underwhelming is the fact that over 95% of the total supply is already mined, so further reduction of emission plays smaller and smaller role in forming market supply. The holders who missed their chance to dump at $60k+ the last time will do it now if the price will fail to skyrocket past that level.

Firstly I don’t think bitcoin is and will be threatened by the Alticoins. Bitcoin will certainly be in high demand towards the end of the year due to the upcoming halving, although alticoins will also follow suit since they also go bullish in direction proportion with bitcoin. But the demand for bitcoin will be higher because people will certainly be looking more into the safest and less risky option even if they are in for profit.

The only thing that would be the stumbling block for bitcoin not to go fully bullish will be stiff regulations by many countries against it. But certainly with the news from China, it doesn’t seems that things would head in that direction, although the Chinese are just one country. Another thing could be a sever recession before halving which would prompt people into selling off their holdings, and that is not coming too soon according to economists.

Investing in Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency involves inherent uncertainties. While the Bitcoin halving event has historically impacted its price, it's important to recognize that market dynamics can be unpredictable. Factors such as market competition, regulatory developments, and unforeseen events can influence the price of Bitcoin. It's crucial to approach investments with a balanced perspective, considering potential risks alongside potential rewards. Diversification and staying informed about market trends and news can help make more informed investment decisions.

Bitcoin appears to be relatively stable at the moment and is gradually increasing in value. However, the pace of its movement is quite slow. Assuming there isn't a barrage of negative news, Bitcoin's price is expected to rise further during the halving. Comparing Bitcoin to other altcoins is not something I agree with, as Bitcoin continues to exhibit higher demand than any other alternative cryptocurrencies. It's worth noting that the crypto market has become somewhat centralized due to the dominance of centralized exchanges. I don't anticipate any major incidents occurring prior to the halving, as such an event could potentially cause another market downturn.

Looks like we will achieve my target - 100k - next post halving bull run. Will need to make a hard decision to sell my btc at 100k as planned or not...

Fireworks & major parabolic upturn coming in the next 2 years incoming. Let’s hope we put the last 18 months behind us now & start a new bull run. Hopefully we don’t go into a deep recession or something because the last thing we need is to see the price suppressed like what I believe happened in 2021. Better times are coming, let’s sit back & enjoy the party.

Yeap halving must happen around mid-April 2024.
Unlike a lot of people, I'm not particularly looking forward to it. Block rewards are going to be halved, and I'd have been happy to keep 6.25 BTC of block reward for a few more years  I'm half-joking, it would obviously be contradictory to sincerely want that, I see every halving as being extremely positive for the deflationary aspect of Bitcoin, which is one of its essences after all.


I don't agree with that. Those who understand the market objectively understand very well that nothing can ever be taken for granted, and will be the opposite of thinking that the market is smooth and predictable. Nobody knows, only those who don't understand their investments are 100% sure of themselves. Even if the previous halvings and the following 12 months (especially) have produced great results in terms of FIAT value, we have no guarantee that this is a foregone conclusion.


1 BTC = 1 BTC, this is the only real answer, no matter what is happening. I am like you, I would like to see a BTC with a high usd value, but this is not the priority. The only priority is to have access to more freedom from a financial point of view. If BTC is high in terms of fiat value, great, we could be rich, if not, it wouldn't matter after all.

Because reality doesn't happen that way. There will always be people that will lose a trade even when talking about a long-term hold. Also taking note that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency markets are no-where near deserve to be called efficient or "smooth". It's one of the most inefficient markets out there due to how undervalued useful things are and how overvalued crappy things are.

Chart Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
Real time Bitcoin halving progress shows that we are already 77% into the next Bitcoin halving. My friends are excited and have already started stacking up more Bitcoin in optimistic anticipation that when the price increases as has been predicted already that they will be able to take profits or their return on investment would be 150%. But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price. No one knows if some crypto firm that is already over leveraged would declare bankruptcy within that time and then Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?