Topic: 80% of altcoins will fail. Optimum strategy: picking 3 coins. No more. No less. (Read 246 times)

Yes, man, the guy that left this post here is at least strange. The thought that 80% of the coins will die seems to be not right. There are many of the great alts nowadays. 3 of them? OK, Ethereum, NEO, and EOS.

Interesting take on things. I learned something new today.

If you had to pick only 3 coins I would bet my money on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and lastly, some NEO (because even if the price goes nowhere, at least you get free GAS).

Well everybody have his or her own strategy and what you just stated right now is your own strategy, though I agree with you that most altcoins will fail and die a natural death, But for me I have a strategy that before they die, I would have made my profit and exited the coin before thy die and invest in the next one. it depends on what works for you. I have what works for me already. 

I think if there's gonna be a bull run happen this year, it's going to be from the market caps of all the smaller altcoins moving over into the top 100 coins. I have big doubts that most altcoins out there are going to reach anywhere near their previous all time highs, ever.

The best strategy for me is to invest only in blockchains (EOS, FSN, ETH, Seele etc.). All of them have huge demand amoung investors and it's less possible that some of them will die. More of that, none of blockchains was ever traded below ICO price.

There is a chance of risk in every coin and in every business success and failure exist but altcoins is far way best investment at present times investing in safest coins we can protect our principal amount

nice description.
picking 3 coins for investment or trading is actually my strategy. having 20 or 10 coins are pointless for investment, unless you have certain purposes. I think it is a common strategy. no need to be afraid of failed altcoins, if you choose the right coins like ETH, XRP, LTC, NEO, EOS, Waves. Those are the prime altcoins with their own platform of blockchain. coins you choose depend on the fund you have. choose the cheap ones if the fund is lack.

I agree that back in the 2017-2018 period holding a variety of coins/tokens was the best strategy. I would've lost out big if I'd chosen only 3 back then. It was an explosion of speculation and we were all in the honey-moon phase with cryptocurrency and everyone was taking their first steps into the crypto-market, and no one could do any wrong. Every move was the right move.

But then time passes by, people cool down, crypto is no longer new and shiny, and we've seen how every cryptocurrency is capable of crashing hard.

I do not believe we're going to see the exact same thing happen again 2018-2019. Everyone is much more sober this time around, and I think the next phase coming will weed out the lesser coins. Using past behavior to predict the future is not the wisest strategy here. If anything, 2017-2018 showed us that past behavior is not an accurate indicator for future trends.

I disagree fundamentally with that. a minimum of 10 coins. just find the coin price statistics from the top 15, period 2017-2018 and you will change your point of view

Frankly, this is peasant mentality. These are not stocks and bonds, diversification will not protect you from the extreme volatility of cryptocurrencies. Unlike investing in stocks and bonds, these coins are in direct competition with each other. These coins want to eat each other alive. It's not like you're buying blue chip stocks to hedge yourself against real estate. The more you spread yourself out, the more exposed you become.

The probability of many coins/tokens succeeding long term is low. You're not diversifying to put yourself in a better position, you're diversifying to cover more numbers on the roulette table. And then you tell yourself the few magical coins/tokens you happen to land on will *HOPEFULLY* compensate for that... nay... they *MUST* compensate for that. That is dangerous thinking. Have you ever been to a roulette table and seen somebody placing small bets on every square? Or to take it to the extreme, you should buy many lottery tickets, and the few winning lottery tickets must compensate for the losing tickets.

You expose yourself to greater risk for a diminishing return that is landing on the lucky golden coin that will blow all the other coins out of the water.


where are you pulling those numbers from? Why do you find comfort in quantity over quality? Are you making your choices based on confidence, or doubt? It sounds like you might not confident in your selections or you're thinking emotionally.

I agree with you, I would also add to your list such coins as NEM and Waves - very good coins for a long time.

So, many altocoins often fail, but there are many coins that succeed. But I think that the number is 80% too large, I think this percentage is about 60% - 65%. I believe that you need to store more than three coins in order to succeed and make a profit.

I have nothing to say 

If to speak seriously - 3 is very small amount: the more coins you have, the better your diversification will be. Maybe some coins will be dumped in future, but other coins in your portfolio must compensate that.

Even if 80% of altcoins will fail, then there are still 20% of altcoins will be successful. All you need to do now is to choose 3 altcoins that you think it will be successful,yes, this is enough.

Experts are saying 93% of coins will fail, but you should still have scattered until they fail, usually if you are looking what is happening to coins, you can predict ups or downs, also you can predict if there will be a shutdown or not... But usually you should choose coins that a legit, not that coin existence is there only for money and nothing more, if you want to have only in XRP, bitcoincash, and lumen, or NEO, just go for it, NEO has a shutdown buttton and others are here only for money... the probabilities of fail, from these currencyes are allmost 100%, if you want I can give you some more examples for only cash streaming and ****ing with people that aren't in crypto world yet... but still, I think you should get more than only 3 cryptocurrencyes... why? There are a lot of interesting values arround, and still coming...

Your way of thinking isn't crazy. What you are describing is real and it could be applied to the cryptocurrencies as well.
Cryptos follow the same rules (more or less) with currencies and as we know there are about 180 different coins, some of them follow the price of USD but all of them co-exist. The cryptos can coexist too. If digital money will be successful in the future, we will see some thousands of them more but few of them will survive. 3 coins are not enough, If I were you, I would choose 5 to 10 coins.

In total, there are around 10,000 altcoins and tokens circulating right now. In the long-term, I don't expect anymore than 1% of them (around 100 currencies) to survive. You can decide on the number of coins to invest. But do your research before doing so, and remember that there is no fail-proof strategy available around.

word.

Depending on the choice of each, in fact many also netted entire altcoin to get some valuable coin. it's not easy but it's a powerful way. we must be smart to choose a good project in accordance with market demand

i agree with your idea of sticking to only 3 coins. i have some additional reasons for that such as the fact that it is easier to handle 3 coins instead of handling 50! unfortunately people these days love creating a long list of useless worthless crap and call it "portfolio"! in reality what they are doing is that they are making everything harder on themselves and also increase their risks.

but i disagree with calling it "optimum strategy". in this market based on my experience, the optimum strategy is when you stick to a handful of coins but not for a long time. you go in and run out just as fast. in this strategy you will be trying to enjoy the pumping part of the market and avoid the dumping part of it best way you can and also you will move on to another coin and do the same thing practically maximizing your profit.

the pareto principle would only be applied to your choices. We may very well boil down to less than 100 coins but your choices would be made within that 100. Nobody will hold on to the eliminated coins. Those 100 coins will represent the entire market cap, and whatever random selections you make theres a 20% chance you selected one of the 20 coins that hold 80% of the market cap.

The pareto principal is also a social phenomena. Human beings instinctively behave in a manner that favors pareto distributions. The cryptocurrency industry can be viewed as a living organism thats driven by the emotions of many investors, a superorganism that respirates and grows in response to our confidence and fear. Our dna evolved in alongside the success of the herd mentality, and cryptocurrencies will be an extention of what drives us on a primal level, a new level in the fractal pattern of nature itself. We will naturally rally to form a majority/minority relationship with each other, whether were sitting on opposite ends of trading terminals or villagers in a tribe.

You're thinking that the pareto principle applies to crypto and that's a really long shot, remember that 20% of the coins will be almost 500 coins will survive this madness, I don't think this number can be so high. I'm thinking more like a 100 so be careful and DYOR

you need some ICX in there bby

So I suggest you buy NEO,QTUM,ACT.
These three tokens are the tokens of the underlying technology, so they are worth holding for a long time.

picasso was considered crazy, but geniuses are rarely appreciated during their time

now im not sayin' i be a genius, but crazy might be just what we need in these troubling times

Well, that's your opinion. Most people here are risk taker including me, if i'm going to invest on ICO i will pick like 10 coins to hodl risky but surely. on that way i have a good chance to get back my capital.

You are a crazy person. Sure, most altcoins fail but you can still gain for some of them, i'm talking about doing bounties rather than participating in ICOs. I think this is better than participating since you really won't have to use your cash to earn. Therefore, there's low risk of loss. But you don't really know if the bounty you're into would be successful or not, here comes the picking of more than 3 coins enter. If you participate on more bounties, you may possibly outweigh the risk and gain more.

bump

there's at least 1000+ blockchain products available, I'm gonna hazard a guess that many are redundant to each other. And some dont even make sense. Dogecoin.

The Pareto Distribution is a pervasive phenomena observed in nature, and it describes the 80/20 rule where 80% of the women have sex with 20% of men. 80% of wealth belongs to 20% of the population. 80% of your results come from 20% of your activities

So my strategy for building a crypto portfolio is to put all my eggs into 3 baskets. My reasoning is if I spread out my investments over 10 different cryptos, 80% of them will fail, and I'm left with 20% of my principal. If I concentrate my investments into 3 highly regarded coins and 2 of them fail (80% of 3 rounded) I'm left with 33% of my principal.

You might say what if all 3 were duds? You're likely to pick 3 duds and be left with nothing, at least when you choose 10 one of them is bound to be the right choice. That's a combinatoric way of looking at things, like pulling out colored marbles from a bag. But cryptocurrencies are volatile and future events might alter the outcome. What you first pulled out as a red marble might change into a green marble. If the marbles change colors randomly the marbles you pick are identical to the marbles in the bag, and you'll always end up with the same distribution of colors. So what I'm trying to say is that I could pick 10 cryptos and all of them have an 80% chance of failing. I could also pick 3 cryptos and all of them have 80% chance of failing.

Why 3? Just because. I like the number 3 because 3 is a good number. I like how curvy the 3 is and I like the way 3 split 80/20 rounds out to a 1/2 split (50% ratio, 33% of principal), whereas 2 split 80/20 rounds out to 0/2 (0% ratio, 0% principal). Going higher than 3 worsens your outcomes, 4 split 80/20 is 1/3 (33% ratio, 25% principal). 5 split 80/20 is 1/4 (25% ratio, 20% principal). And of course 10 split 80/20 is 2/8 (25% ratio). Why do I round? because either a marble is or isn't a color. It can't be one portion red and another portion green. Either it's a 1 or a 0, and the sum of the split numbers must equal the original quantity.

it goes without saying you can improve the odds in your favor by gathering good data and doing thorough research


or am I a crazy person?