Topic: A break-out? (Read 4596 times)

Yeah, what do you guys think on a bearish divergences on 15 min chart (volume and RSI)? I semi-accidently sold around $582 (old forgotten order fulfilled ) and now hoping for retracement to buy back at that price. I am trading in market with very small liquidity so buying back even my very modest investment without raising the price is not easy. OTOH you have to buy back quickly in the bull market.

I've read somewhere that pumps happens on near end of the month then dump on the first to second week of the next month  

Big question is, what do you expect between now and then?

Bitcoin has experienced a huge rise, $440 - $630, without any meaningful retracement (yet). All my fav indicators are kind of maxed out and scary. RSI is showing negative divergence on shorter time frames, The OBV which you have brought my attention to is also for the first time in a while, showing that the recent $630 high is 'not confirmed'..........I am cashing out for now.

It's a bit worrying. I was expecting it to be much higher before the mtc-sentiment indicator switched! Makes it seem a bit bulltrappy.

I was quoted. Successful kid meme. More seriously. 600 dollar resistance didn't seem to stand a chance. Breakout was strong. I expect 700-710. My second target

http://www.babypips.com/school

Go read all of that and don't come back until you're done.
That goes for all the noob traders.

Don't know why would stoners care about 666, I think 420 is more like their thing Not saying its going to drop or anything, I believe 666 is much more likely, 3day chart ema just crossed and everything seems bullish.

wouldnt kill the market. just some cheap coins. gimme gimme, i'm buying.

All Specialists/Market makers/Whales dont wont to KILL the market just scare it many many times but not to teh point of killing it

Good book that explains it all while gioving you good VPA

http://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Volume-Price-Analysis-ebook/dp/B00DGA8LZC

Never ending bullshit about how he is right ALL the time

FAKE WALLS
LEAD BY CHINA
DANV SUB 300 prices
BIFINEX ARE SCAMMERS

Did i leave anything out

Remember your $460:$520 margin, I thought that was a good play, who knew we'd shot up to 585??  Eitherway brother that's still a great margin you made and at least you converted into FIAT profit.

I used to be concerned with just the # of Bitcoins I hold, but now I'm happier realizing the FIAT profit. We got a decent amount of Bitcoins in offline wallet (These I won't consider touching until if/when price index becomes >$7000/BTC, so that's probably gonna be a long time!) The rest have been flipping on Localbitcoins @ 7-14% margins near instantly buying them back - it's awesome. However my bank, previously cool via my business account, maybe having a different stance, meeting with them on Monday.

Not too sure about the next correction, don't think it'll be sub$600? I actually think if increasing personal BTC, you should be very careful June/July. If I can resolve my business bank account, we are going to reduce our transaction frequency and charge a >9% margin, just to be on the safe side. Seems the stability of price index whether it be via market manipulation or whatever is confirmed volatile right now.

Working on an actual BTC web project at the moment mate, we got a small team (2 ) software engineers working for us, so that'll keep me busy. Let you know how it goes 

And it's also very close to the target for the cup&handle pattern that was formed at $548.

We won't stay in this zone for long. Barring a large dump and recovery to 555, we will see the magical 666 soon. Not because it is popular with stoners, but because it fits the Rule of Thirds in both the 100s range and the 1000s range as well as being a lucky number.

I have been 'bullish' in terms of what I thought the prevailing trend was, since the break out at $460 and I will remain bullish (on the prevailing trend) until at least $750. This target hasn't changed since $400 range when it became apparent that Bitcoin wasn't going to take another dive, but spring upwards.

I base my $750 target on my suspicion that we are in a kind of a Wave B, other than a Wave 5, which the masses here seem to take for granted that we are in, insofar as many here even know what a 'Wave 5' is. How the volume behaves on the way up will give a lot of clues on whether we are in a Wave B, or the much more bullish proposition of a Wave 5.

Well, I have limited myself to around 50% of the margins that I might have had if I had just held from $460. But I got cold feet at $520. There was a big nasty 2K BTC wall at $530 which definitely had a role in my decision to sell. Similar to this disappearing and reappearing wall that this whale joker keeps goading the market with right now. That particular wall was taken down and kept down as buying pressure rolled over the $530 in much smaller volumes. My next buy in target was $540. But I was in my bed. Since then, I have been a bit hot n cold, a bit in and out. Not lost any money (yet), but was anticipating some kind of meaningful correction, but then the buying pressure (all fake no doubt) enticed me back in at $601.

So I am anxiously observing market to see what comes next. A proper correction must come. It is a question of when, as I have found out after leaving my perfectly timed $460 trade way way way too early.

Did i read that right? MatTheCat is bullish on bitcoin?

What's with all the $80.80's on there ?

Yeah it's a decent volume request - we're still $5 away being currently @$610.

I'm having to hold off trading for now (UK Business Banking issues to sort) but loving my ~$480 buy-in. Cheers for your past advise and stuff mate! How's your positioning?

Like it.

Bitcoin has encountered a few banana skins in its time and so having those on the radar should definitely mitigate future trading misery.

It's gone. Taken down as was no doubt always the intention.
...
...
...
...
Oh-HA! But what is this. It has returned!

Heads-up guys:

1394.4 BTC @ $615.00 on Bitstamp, possibly about to get filled.

Personally, I'm a big fan of Chaikin's banana flow index. If the banana curves upwards, we're going up, if the banana curves downwards, we're going down. Very simple, very reliable (5 sigma).

Here's the current view:

Wasn't the break out, when the 400$ wall fell?

I'm all ears.

Please post refined appraisal incorporating the "other indicators"  

If you're long term enough to not care about a 50% intermediate drop then you're long term enough to never want to trade in the first place anyway.

You're not getting around the fact that
a) 1w MACD is extremely lagging (example: During the 2013 correction it turned red around $100. You had precisely 4 weeks before the market turned around, and your best buying back point would have been ~62. If you would have trusted the weekly MACD to buy back, you would have paid a nice 25% premium for the privilege of sitting out the bear market
b) it's pure momentum. At any moment, it can fail you, whether it's on the 2 min chart or the monthly. From a frequentist point of view, sure, I agree: once the weekly MACD turns green, it is more likely we continue to go up than down in the long run, but it's far from some logical kind of certainty.

Which brings us back to the original point: you don't base your decisions on a single indicator. The end.

That doesn't matter because we're talking about long term trends.

If you're investing long term, you don't care if it goes down 50% as long as it comes back up again. That 1-Week MACD histogram doesn't guarantee that the price won't drop by 50%, but it does guarantee that such a move would be the equivalent of swimming against a very strong tide and is likely to be swept away by same tide in quite a short space of time.

I'm sure there will be $200 bitcoins waiting for you at the end of the rainbow.

You make lots of valid points, but.....


And in that time that it takes to turn and change course, Bitcoin could be down 50%.

It's not a lagging indicator.

Trading school books define it as such because the MACD algorithm uses historical data to calculate it's output, but the histogram in particular is not displaying a historical property of the market, it's displaying a current one, and the bigger the chart timescale the more current the indication. (i.e. the 5 minute MACD has a huge relative lag but the 1-week has almost none).

The indicator uses the fourth or fifth derivatives of the moving averages and the histogram shows the difference of these, so we are looking at semi-permanent, well established properties of the market (at least in the long range reports) that transcend particular positive or negative fundamentals. It most definitely is something that can be used to "pre-empt" trends.

I agree that waiting for confirmation is important, but even that is a hazy area. Classically it's where the lower and higher order derivitaves cross, but on such a long term chart that point becomes more of a formality. In that chart right there you've got ample confirmation of very fundamental slowing of selling momentum and increase in buying momentum over a sustained period and against a diversity of news both favourable and unfavourable. That kind of momentum isn't going to turn around anytime soon.

this is very true.

once you get good at it you can actually begin to read human emotion into the patterns.

yeah ,you are right with candlestick Patterns They are a very strong and reliable tool.
I am astonished you noticed this now and not earlier
Basic TA-knowledge

Hope everyone is enjoying the rise in BTC price index today.

Has anyone else noticed the buy orders on Bstamp?

If you check out Bitcoinwisdom and select 15min charts - The two successive buying amounts looks kind of suspicious?

(2175BTC then 1246BTC) X 2

Is that just a coincidence?

If the Chinese really wanted to scare us and milk as many coins as possible then why is it that they never went to the point of saying that exchanges would actually be shut down?

Doesn't china make (or can get - Taiwan or something) the same mining chips for much cheaper (making it possible) to mine any amount of penta hash they want?

Could hit $700 quickly imo.

One thing I'm learning with forex trading that I'm getting into now is that candlestick patterns and lines on simple plain price charts are much more effective tools than complex mathematical indicators, which are ultimately derived from the same data.

My gut feeling is that big guys in China are loaded with coins by now, after months of spreading bearish news/guidelines/rumours. They tested bottom multiple times and accepted that's it for them, no more dump trucks coming as the current state.

They stopped caring about market movement, as they are holding long term. These big guys are not average Joe, they are either senior officials and/or insider traders.

It's unlikely we are going to see any big influence from Chinese government any more, however, selling rumours are way cheaper than building mining farms.

yep.  i said one of the indications.

that was a false "throw under".

You don't need a MACD. The first indicator was when it finally broke the $380 support and then proceeded to fall only to $340 and then immediately bounce all the way back up, never establishing a new lower trading range.

OKcoin has actually higher BTC volume than Huobi these days, it's not just Huobi anymore. And we were getting goxxed all the way to $1200 in November, when so many people thought MtGox was insolvent and would die. It did eventually die but not until making a new ATH and a few months of correcting afterwards, so a crash isn't the only possible outcome when exchanges get into trouble. If Huobi and OKcoin are suddenly shutdown, yes the price will dive. But that seems unlikely though, there are just too many possible scenarios including the one where nothing happens at all until fully regulated professional exchanges start popping up. The coming months will be exciting for sure.

It's bad enough that it's such a lagging indicator - you should not pre-empt it on top of that. 'I believe the lagging indicator is going to do THIS in 2 candles from now so I should act immediately' - at least wait until it actually happens and is confirmed. Do not forget all the traps that occured previously involving the 1D MACD and even once or twice with the 3D MACD where it went up but wasn't confirmed or was up for 1 candle and went back down.

LoL. That's kind of like saying don't just rely on your ears to tell you a 150mph train is coming round the bend in 20 seconds.

That isn't just *any* MACD indicator. It's a 1-week one. What that means is that it isn't predicting what's happening, it's TELLING you. That kind of momentum doesn't turn around in a few days - or even a few weeks - unless Bitcoin blew up technically.

What's more, the selling that went on during the past few months was in spite of the fundamentals, not because of them. It happened against a background of all kinds of bullish news such as the overstock adoption, senate hearings, Winklevoss ETF progress through the regulatory framework.

ok, there's been some negative stuff as well, but it's all short term and largely inconsequential to Bitcoin's adoption - Gox going bankrupt, malleability histeria, China trying to put their finger in the dyke etc.

So you've had 4 months of downward pressure from 3 short term sources....

[1] - the correction from December's pump

[2] - China regulating their FIAT gateways

[3] - F*ck ups like Gox and the malleability scare

... against a background of growing favourable fundamentals, not least of which is the Winklevoss ETF which will open a massive Fiat gateway into the market (the biggest of which is currently BTC-e and Coinbase   )

All this has had the effect of compressing a coiled spring which is what you're seeing in the MACD histogram there. There isn't any better indicator to demonstrate the aggregate effect of these market influences because you're seeing higher level derivatives of the selling momentum over a long long period, so it runs deep.

It might change course, but only as fast as the world's biggest supertanker at full speed.

No! Go away with your "logic" and "common sense". This is all led by Chairman Mao's Market Manipulation Brigade (CM³B). You'll see in time!

(it's actually kind of funny, because Mat could make a valid point about how Chinese exchanges still do have the capacity to throw us back a long way, if and when their actual volume declines to a trickle of what it is now. there is after all a real contribution to current buying pressure by China, and if that were to stop, I'm sure price would be affected. But, no, that's way too complicated an explanation for old Mat of course: instead "China leads each and every move" it is.)

I expected 600 yesterday because thursdays usually are interesting (possible second market buying etc).

I I was a HODLER, I would be bagholding some 27BTC bought at $1100 as a worst case scenario, although I start 'day trading' Bitcoins from $700 in November. So best case scenario would be me being a bag holder from $700 range.


Never rely on one indicator alone. Especially not the MACD.

I think the 1-week MACD histogram from Bitcoinwisdom tells all anyone needs to know about whats happening with this breakout.

It's permanent, and has been building since early April when the rate of selling started to slow. The correction from December's all time high is now fully in and IMO this is going well northward over the summer.

We haven't had such a bullish set of circumstances since last October.

No.

Because the fact that China always leads the buying pressure on this run up is only the reality in MatTheCat land. All the wise users on Bitcointalk.org say so (despite the evidence being there for all to see each and every fucking time).

ching chung ku fung piff paff wing wang i suppose soon we will all be hitting ourselves after huobi shuts down for real and btc is back down, because we neglected these obvious signs including this pathetic rally volume on stamp which is 1/4 of the volume as the volume that the various crashes earlier in the year had. just another day getting goxxed by china and we fell for it yet again. ill order the general tzo's chicken with two spring rolls and a side of crispy duck.

Not to mention, MatTheCat never seems to ponder the obvious truth that a few whale traders have multiple accounts on different international exchanges (e.g., Whale #1 has a trading account on both Bitstamp and Huobi, thus being able to play sides of the rally on multiple exchanges simultaneously).  So saying that "China is leading this rally, not the other nations" is misleading and possibly just plan wrong.

Thanks for the illustration of what I wrote above.

No need to discuss this further. I'm not the one playing catch and run with a price that doesn't do what I expect it to do based on faulty premises.

And it just so happens that Huobi is always the leader whenever anything significant happens in Bitcoin these days. Yeah....the trading bots follow on all exchanges, cos they are all hooked up to each other, but Huobi leads. Always.

pretty sure all the market look to each other for confirmation of moves anyway

leader with 30sec head start will not keep going up if no one follows

so wtv.

I didn't. don't why that happened. Instead of debating me, just go check it out for yourself.

Edit: FIXED.

why did you place the stamps time marker after the first volume spike?

Hier ist Der wirkliche Anfang des Ausbruchs:

Huobi:




Bitstamp:





EDIT: For some fucking reason that screenshot makes it look as though the first big green bar was at 9:31, on Bitstamp, and I am trying to steal a minute from the action on Bitstamp. The first big green bar happened on Bitstamp at 9.32 am UTC. Go and check it out for yourself.

Damn, matt just got wrecked

Why in on an uptrend?

I mean if you think it's going to succeed long term

ah, the perils of sleep.

seriously, as a day trader, how do you effectively deal with trading a highly volatile market when a quarter to a third of your life involves you being unconscious and away from your screen unable to react?  sure, you could try to automate your trades if a sudden move happens but that is very dangerous to your account especially with whipsaws.  statistically, much of this volatility is going to originate from outside the US when you're asleep.

better to HODL.

You're right for once: this isn't even up for debate.



The spikes, in chronological order:

14:17 Bitfinex 111 xbt (local spike, but not a huge order exactly. I'd call it "the rally starter, part 1")

14:18 Bitstamp 693 xbt  ("the rally starter, part 2")

14:18 Huobi 42 xbt (how things got started in Matland)


EDIT: and if this is about the first impulse of the breakout, then:

11:30 Huobi 286 xbt
11:31 Huobi 594 xbt
11:32 Bitstamp 943 xbt / Huobi 842 xbt


Summary:

Huobi indeed began the first impulse of this local rally 2 minutes earlier than stamp, but within 2 minutes higher volume order(s) came in on Bitstamp.

That's not what it looks like if "one exchange leads the other". That's "exchanges getting each other in a buying frenzy".

Arb bots are most likely keeping the exchange rates in line.

2000 BTC took Bitfinex up to $599. Just further couple of hundred BTC took it up to $630, and then a few hundred more caused it to correct to $583. All within one minute. Who in their right mind (human mind or bot coding) is going to be so chomping at the bit to get in on Bitcoins that they are happy to pay up $30 above the USD market standard rate (Bitstamp price)?

Why do these things never happen on Bitstamp?

Why is it only ever on shady exchanges like BTC-e and Bitfinex that we get these wild anomalous trading spikes?

Did you know that Bitfinex routes trades through Bitstamp to increase liquidity? Seems to have circumvented Bitstamp on this occasion hasn't it not?

Have you actually traded on Bitfinex? Have you first hand experience of all it's little 'quirks'? Especially with regards to farming Stop Loss orders!

These exchanges will one day prove to be a blight on the Bitcoin market just like Gox did.

Bitfinex shows ~14K BTC volume on this latest move, if the wall were fake why did the move up cause more volume then the order book was showing at the time.

Yeah....that is why I hate Bitfinex.

Fake Walls R Us.

Some poor cunt obviously made a panic 'market order' buy on Bitfines, only to discover that the thousands of BTC making up the Ask wall above him were but a 'mirage'.

I fucking hate Bitfinex. Crooks operating a fractional reserve Bitcoin exchange, with fake volume and insider trading for sure!

And still, Bitfinex was also 2 minutes behind Huobi.

Sometimes a bull breakout does not end nicely 

Have a look at finex charts.

Doppelpost

I bought in at $460, and out very prematurely at $520. I was asleep when Bitcoin broke through $540 which would have been my buy-in confirmation target had it not been 4am where I am, when the break out happened. I was in and out near top (at small profit) just before the correction to $550. I never held my $571 position because I had a dream of Bitcoin correcting to $500. A couple of days later we got to $550, which seems to be as low as it goes, for now.....I hope. But looking at the charts and the all the indicators I like/use, suggested to me that there was likely a bit more correcting to come. But when a 2K worth of orders hit Stamp out of knowhere, it kind of turns all those indicators on their heads.



This is what I am/was betting on. If we are in a wave B, then it would be a Wave B correction from the $1160 - $340 crash. That would imply a typical $750 price target being met as a 50% Fib retracement.

However, for that to be the case, then the huge descending triangle from $1160 down to roughly $380-$400, would have to constitute a Wave A contrary to my previous EW attempt posted in oda.krell's thread, where my wave count breaches an EW rule. Are there many examples of a corrective Wave A, playing out as a triangle formation? If the triangle formation theory were to be dismissed, then Wave A would have to constitute a 3-3-3 zig-zag combination?

If this is in fact a rising wedge and breaks down, it would set the stage for this being a B wave of an ABC.   (I am not betting on this though)

well,that`s not the way MatTheCat is going to do.
Gambler

Yep, already missed the 520->570 gap + exchange fees + nerves and time = not worth it.

 

Why are you even attempting to trade during a bull market? This is your opportunity to just move your coins into cold storage and avoid mistakes and exchange risk alltogether.

why the fuck did you wait for it to hit $600 before buying, while it was sitting on $420~$570 for weeks.

So too was I. But the whales seem determined that Bitcoin will be pumped and who is to argue with them?

Could be we top out at $650 for this leg up before 'the correction' hits, could be $617 was the top. But 4 Hour MACD looking good, as is 4hr stochastic, KDJ, OBV. The one too watch is the RSI....showing positive divergence up 1hr period, still looking to prove itself on 2hr and 4hr charts.

I'm not sure that buying at 600$ is the best move, after 30+% in few days I'm expecting a correction in these days,
but who knows, with bitcoins all can happen...

The volume surge on Huobi was 2 minutes ahead of Stamp. This isn't up for debate, it is there in black and white (or red and green).

Sorry, but this happens almost 9 times out of 10 and it cannot be ignored.

That was one breakout. Thee major breakout.

I caught that one and jumped off at $520. I rebought in at $571, but got cold feet at $585. That was before the rise to $595 and the subsequent drop to $550. Since then we have had a triangle/flag formation, from which we have broken out, and now have also broken out from the trendline connecting the previous two significant highs ($547, $595).

 I am now in again since $601.

Glad you bought back in time.

Disagreed on the "led by China" statement. I made my case against that often enough now, so I'm not repeating it here. China is a large factor still though, so if it's just hyperbolic phrasing to say that, I'm okay with it.

correct

What but they banned bitcoin five times! How that could be, definitely bearish since that means it's a trick and nobody's really buying anything right?

I'm just enjoying how simple it is to ride bitcoin bull. Most probably would go well above 700 before a correction to 600-ish again. We still have time, will be an enjoyable summer. Thanks bitcoin.

The breakout occured at $460.

That looks like a break-out from the leading diagonal wedge that seemed to be forming from the $340 bottom.

Strong volume, although it still needs to confirm itself.

I have bought in at $600, but am ready to bail back out should the break out fail and simply result in the final high of the leg up from $460 as posters such as ibankbitcoins suggests.

Important to note before the denialists start trying to deny it, is that Huobi was once again, ahead of Bitstamp on this break out (2 mins ahead). We are still being lead from China.