Topic: A brief history of exponential trends (Read 5578 times)

So based on the chart I see us breaking through 400 within 48hrs

this chart shows two interesting things!

1. I was totally wrong (overly bearish! whodathunkit) which will come as no surprise
2. TERA looked pretty much bang on with that red line...

we are very bullish

update:
Basic trend since 2011 still intact
Rally Acceleration since 2013  now broken


 

Many other exchanges which don't exist anymore have an even lower price, so this does not mean anything. If you can't withdraw either fiat or btc or both, such a price should be ignored, as that's not an *exchange* in a standard definition of the term.

PS I really think your blue line would hold.

only Gox is "done"

red is baseline since 2011
blue is accelerated trendline since 2013

so nothing serious happened

And the number 2 wins! (with a little help from #1)

EM has permabear status, didn't you know that? 

Onkel Paul

I tend to agree, but the mathematical possible low is 100-200 now. We went up too fast this year, deviated from the exponential growth... exponentially; only bitcoin can seriously overshoot exponential growth

Just a hunch. Has something to do with the failure to reach gold parity.

Please excuse my ignorance if it is clear, but in which way and why?

I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.

Without being able to prove it, I really feel like you are undershooting there. It's got to be between $400 and $500 in my opinion, unless of course America bans Bitcoin or something like that.

Exactly, since bitcoin fluctuates wildly and noone can predict how high the speculation would drag it in each rally, I'm more interested in the baseline support price. This has quadrupled yearly since 2011.

sgbett, this seems also valid and the low of 200 makes more sense at this point.

I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.

I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?

I like this thread. I also like drawing arbitrary lines on charts so I'm throwing this in the mix.



I think the pirate incident created some false lows, so I've moved the line a bit from the original one EM posted.

Based on nothing more than a gut feeling that it seems a bit like 2011, as others have observed, I've replicated a rough projection of the angle of attack and descent, which just happens to be a right angle (well close enough that I can shoehorn one in... if you squint a bit heheh)

So plugging all of this into the patented sgbettojector, shown here as some nice blue dashed lines, gives the end of march, and a low of just under $200.

So convincing is my analysis, that I'll be ignoring it entirely, and holding tight. I can handle riding out an ~80% decline (again) as this will at least guarantee that I won't lock in losses by trading badly.

I'm really good at that (trading badly). Which is probably another reason why this chart needs serving with a good pinch of salt

soz dude, but I can give a contribution to this thread. you prob seen this video already but just in case you haven't, I present to you the most interesting lecture on the exponential function given in layman's terms. i would rank at as one of the most scariest videos ever made if you watch it all the way thru:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vII-GxsrR2c

then it will hit 2xx in about half a year, a possibility. or the rally could get re-ignited at any moment as it did earlier this year.

This chart is actually pretty scary because it makes right now look just like 2011.

open a separate thread, this one is for exponential growth trend of bitcoin, some local external events are of no interest to the greater power of math.

actually piramida, you given me a good idea for a game. let's think of all the possible scenarios that might cause double digits were it to happen. you came up with the first.

1. protocol compromise.
2. mt gox closes down after btc "robbery"

From this perspective, it seems to make sense that BTC remains stuck at around $500 for a year.
Watch the daily chart: when - after a longer period of stable prizes - prize collapses suddenly, get in with all you are willing to lose. It has been the trigger of the next rally 2 times already.

The best virtue of a sniper is patience. A good trader should abide to the same.

don't be saying shit like that, ya jinxed it now 

Would not count on it; last crash from 266 never hit anywhere close to the rock bottom of $30, so I doubt it would go below 300 this time too. Something much much worse than China has to happen for this; I would think the protocol has to be compromised for the double digits now.

woot! maybe I get some for $100 after all. come on you exponential muthafcking function 

Updating for Jan 1 2014. Looks like we went ballistic this year, and travelled way off our 4x yearly growth target. The absolute possible minimum for this crash is currently around $70, which does not seem realistic anymore. The next minimum, $280 of Jan 1st 2015, seems more realistic, but the pretty picture of exponential growth says $70, so I leave it here.



P.S. $1000 becomes an absolute minumum possible price at around November 2016.

i also like this thread, because it is closer to how I think about this, than most of bull/bear non-sense. And your post is excellent.

Your take seems very reasonable to me. This is what I expect as well, and why I am playing the long  (patient) game with bitcoin. Series of explosive exponential bulls (over the next couple of years) as more people start to see the potential and usefulness of bitcoin, and new services come on line,and adoption gets more ubiquitous. Each likely followed by crashes and consolidations. Some of these crashes may be followed by extended lows below recent support (meaning many month recoveries), and others may hit support and consolidate there before going higher. All depending - as you said - on who is in the game at the time and the fundamental view at the moment.

This time? We shall see. I'll be ready with cash if we consolidate much lower and will hang on tight if it keeps moving up. Ready for anything...or so I think

That makes sense actually but it isn't really a clear trend.... Drawing this curve afterwards is easy but make it such that it actually predicts the bottom is much, much harder.
If the slope of the curve asymptotically approaches zero it could be possible to hold true. If not it could just become worthless again.

Finally asymptotic laws trend to break down into chaos quite often, especially if they are tested near it's limits...

*I replaced your chart on imgur so that GotBitCoins can see it. (Get a more sane browser though!)

I can't see your chart - it's blocked saying 'adult and pornography'...

my version is this one:
the bottom line is not a straight line it's a curve
so now i see the bottom at 22 USD
it worked really well for me at the last touch of the line ;-)

I do believe it may go faster at times, but it will be returning to the slow growth line when "omg bitcoin is dead" every now and then And to have all tax haven money in bitcoin it should first earn a solid reputation among even the harshest critics, which could easily take dozens of years. The 5-digit or higher numbers  would be possible - once we have real economy (producer chains operating completely in bitcoin, with all manufacturing, parts, advertisement and mining prices not tied to fiat but to bitcoin) - and this would also take many years of gradual shifting. These are all very rigid areas to change overnight.

Interesting. This indicates it will be several years before we reach mainstream adoption valuations (~$10,000-$100,000), whereas the 2013 exponential trend has us reaching mainstream early next year. That makes this slower trend look more realistic.

However, this common estimate at BTC price upon reaching mainstream adoption seems like it could be an artifact of the common misconception that Bitcoin derives the bulk of its value from its medium-of-exchange usage. Since it quite obviously derives the vast part of its valuation from its store-of-value functionality, mainstream adoption figures should be far, far higher. Trace Mayer has a figure of several million dollars per bitcoin just to accoint for tax haven accounts all being shifted to Bitcoin. Not to mention everything else. And not to mention the massive efficiency gains Bitcoin will bring about. With all that factored in, this slow exponential growth seems like it could take 20 years to reach mainstream.

Furthermore, adoption curves are S-shaped, meaning it could actually take much longer than this (~50 years) to reach mainstream adoption at this slow rate. This brings us back to the current trendline (doubling every 5 weeks until inflection) as looking quite good again.

I really appreciate this thread.

It gives a mult-years perspective on what's going on -

It seems like in the case of the BitCoin it's a war between the enthusiasm of new technology and the speculative mania that can burn it.

We know that many times when a new technology is introduced - we have this wave of early adopters that are so enthusiastic about it that they take the price up exponentially. Then after it cools down, it starts rising again slowly till there's public acceptance.

It seems like in the case of BitCoin we are witnessing not only one exponent followed by public acceptance, but more like waves and waves of public acceptance, each time going into exponential Mania and then dropping again and then drawing a bigger circle of acceptance and then mania again and then drop and so on.

So it makes sense that if (IF) BitCoin makes it - then we shall witness every 2 years an Exponential Mania, followed by despair.

If so then we are right now at the Bear following the Mania - that should last many months till the price shall become undervalued again and the chartists will have to adjust their exponent...

(Specifically right now we are in an unsustained post Mania suckers rally)

Yes, one needs lots of patience, to sit on the sidelines for several months ready with cash to get a good entry price - but then it seems like almost the sky is the limit...

GotBitCoins.

Don't worry Im short Acti. Not MSFT yet though, the windows 8 mini-fail is already priced in, and the next big move will probably come with windows blue and that looks legit. Also office 365 is super good and will likely get them more revenue because its a subscription and thus can't be pirated.

appreciate that answer... So your argument is really just your opinion about the growth path of the btc (not a structural argument about the impossibility of exponential adoption).. Ok. got it. Thanks.

ok well that was kind of lazy of me.

Take that microsoft stock for example. This was a change over a long time period and in the long run bitcoin might look like that too. This was fueld by real growth and real sales. (Duh, it's Microsoft, they still have contracts with about every OEM, business software producers and hold a near monopoly in that field still.
Yet, in case of Microsoft I think they are over the peak, but I am sure there are better examples than that.

The peak you are seeing is actually the .com bubble which took many casualties and microsoft was one of the winners. In terms of bitcoin the bubble is fueld by the many upstarts which come and go with a few successful remaining. Overall I think the valuation of Bitcoin will more resemble the nasdaq than microsoft.

Come on. That's all you got??    Totally irrelevant response.

I was seriously looking forward to your response here. Basically to check if you believe what you are saying, and have a consistent argument - therefore worth considering further ....or if you are just enjoying the attention, and will say anything to disturb the confused and scared.

So...what is your response to other exponential adoption curves that have turned out well?

Atleast those aren't log charts...

Which make insane things look way too sane...

Right, but if I were a stock trader I'd short Microsoft. Surface & Windows 8? nooooo!  
ActiBlizz? They fabricated the biggest disaster yet with DiabloIII

Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Well, not exactly. That drop is very real.
The issue with actual gold is, gold futures can also include gold which isn't mined yet. The next thing is gold is close to it's hubbert peak so that selloff here comes from a record supply of gold along with a exponential speculative demand due to the expected decline in supply in the next decades. Of course those estimates can be bullshit and gold is really a bubble.

do not trust statistics you didn't forge yourself.  



and the recent price drop is rigged of course. Any gold bug will tell you! It's because they're getting rid of the those funny gold certificates, and get the real stuff instead.  

too bad you can't sell it. 

Shit looks much like Gold actually.

the point being made here is that ElectricMucus is a very sad lame troll, that you really have to pity, because he tries so hard.

Something can't exponentially increase forever? Well at least I understand the comment now from a previous poster that water is wet.

I do.
Do you understand mine?

Ok let's see if I understand this well.. you claim that the exponential trend upwards will continue to decline right? Well if you wait long enough this is dead obvious because at some point bitcoin will have reached its peak or slow down so the trendline will eventually catch up to that. Maybe I just don't understand the point you are trying to make here. 

Some people will never understand exponential functions I guess. 

What a bunch of bullshit. Either bitcoin goes to 0 or it goes to the moon, simple as that. Your charts and trendlines predict absolutely nothing about the future. Once bitcoin truly starts taking off and it looks like it just might, all these so called trends and charts go right out the window and we have a whole new ballgame. Now you may believe this whole bitcoin experiment will fail or won't get widespread recognition, but you can't say this with any amount of certainty just as I can't. So yes, it's entirely a matter of 'if', not 'when'.

very interesting ElectricMucus - it puts things in perspective. ty.

hah!

Sesame Street for bitcoiners, brought to you by Electric Mucus.

Now where's our word of the day dude?

I told ya! 

Also, water is wet.

Exactly, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And discarding every other rationale about bubbles you might think it won't be that soon but that still doesn't make it likely to happen.
This line will suffer the exact same faith as the previous ones, but there is a trick to it:

Come up with a way to estimate the length where it does match the trend and you've got a system.

It does touch, the line drawn approximately since I dont have proper tools with me, you can see it is 2mm below the lows, so you can see them. We'll see, if your prediction is true, by the end of this year price would have travelled below 20 and I've sold all my coins and went elsewhere then.

That doesn't make any sense, since this line doesn't really touch the lower end of the chart until January 2013.

Yes it will be broken in two possible ways:
Either if the price falls below it.
Or if the growth slows down to below it's slope till the line catches up.

Since this time prices did rise on a hyper-exponential slope I'd rather think it will be the former than the latter.

No, I added some text below, which means this line I consider as minimum bitcoin price growth. I don't think it is possible for the price to go below that line, unless something fatal happens to the protocol itself. So far, it has served me well in predicting ends of decline.

That's essentially the same line. And it does not make sense to draw it that way on any point before January 2013.
Will you be drawing the same line from a even more recent point in the future?

Ok, my version of "correct" trendline is this one, confirmed repeatedly over three years:



If it ever gets broken, I'd become a bear and consider bitcoin idea dying. This trendline means almost exactly 4x minimum possible price each year. That is why I am waiting for the current "crash" to end it's bear run near $30 by autumn.

Well ultimately there can be only one of two outcomes:
A sigmoid curve or a bell shaped one.

My conclusion is that every exponential trend line gets broken how is that wrong?


Do it yourself and post it here. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do, I get the feeling that drawing them differently will have even more stunning results.



How do you know? Were you one of them?

All is well besides that all of your lines are wrong (drawn from an arbitrary starting point which is not really useful). So all of your conclusions are wrong, as well.

Draw some lines through bottoms, then you will see some clearer pictures. Your "current trendline" chart is more or less correct, except that you should consider periods with any trading volume, for example it would make sense to start at Jan 11. Trading before that was between about two people.

If you draw the trendline through bottoms, starting at Jan 11, you will see that right now it goes through ~20$. If the price ever goes below that then yes, exponential growth trendline which quadruples yearly has been broken, but it was not yet, instead it was confirmed four times in three years.

It all depends if bitcoin manages to break through into the mainstream now. If it doesn't and it fades back into obscurity then yes the current trendline will be broken again. If it does break through the trendline won't be broken again and bitcoin will become the biggest bull market ever in the history of mankind. Personally I'm betting on the latter, although it might take a few more years. Bitcoin's succes also depends on its believers, and you have to be a bull to be a believer (at least long term). Sometimes I think this works just like a self-fulfilling prophecy, it will only become a success if enough people believe it will. If they don't, it won't. Probably not that simple but I do think there's some truth to it.

You're right. these lines are purely crystal balling, because the price will always come down after a big rally. In 100 years time the line will have a much smaller amplitude, but the price will be much much higher. (if bitcoin is still around)

Here is how the current exponential trend looks on the all time chart.

I like how the bulls use to draw their cute charts of how Bitcoin is going up, uP and UP on a logarithmic chart.

The cute thing about it is that once they are posted that historically means they are going to be broken below that point. I've made this small collection to demonstrate.


From top to bottom these are past exponential trends and how they got broken on the chart below it.
So we have got a new exponential trendline again will it be broken?

Take a guess....