Topic: A Bubble Bull Market? (Read 783 times)
Everyone's a fantastic trader with hindsight. This market is not for the faint of heart. Trading from $60-80 on one exchange right now.
This kind of volatility is expected, since many new people are jumping into it.
only put as much in to bitcoins as you can afford to lose entirely
it did drop substantially yesterday down to around $100, then back up to $170-180... you could of made a killing... however hindsight is always 20/20 and it could equally have kept falling to $50 and stayed there
me, I'm just mining them with hardware I have anyway, so if they crash I haven't really lost anything as such
it did drop substantially yesterday down to around $100, then back up to $170-180... you could of made a killing... however hindsight is always 20/20 and it could equally have kept falling to $50 and stayed there
me, I'm just mining them with hardware I have anyway, so if they crash I haven't really lost anything as such
LOL!!!! So is it....
Be careful guys. In the world of equity (stocks) not even professional traders try to time the market.
Exactly. It's dangerous to your wealth trying to trade BTC right now. Its time to cash out, sit back and watch.
You're in a bubble if you think about Bitcoin all day, and night.
I wouldn't go about superimposing the old-fiat world's structure to what is now Bitcoin.
I wouldn't go about superimposing the old-fiat world's structure to what is now Bitcoin.
LOL!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, BTC isnt like any other market at any time or in any place.
Get real.
No reason for it to burst other than a major robbery or government intervention. I say it cruises on until maybe people think it's not worth as much as they are paying.
This is much like a stock market bubble, and yes they do burst, all the time. No robbery or govt intervention needed.
Be careful guys. In the world of equity (stocks) not even professional traders try to time the market.
The history of Bitcoin show the 3 distinct phases. Early on the jump from $0.006 to $0.25 was miraculous during the summer/fall of 2010. 4167% growth in something deemed impossible or highly unlikely, was what brought me to the fold. I joined Bitcoin as prices spiked again from $0.11 to $0.19, then $0.21, $0.25, $0.29!
Everyone was running around like the world was on fire. "This price is unsustainable!" "The market is too green and untested!" "We must build up to infrastructure!"
In the summer of 2011, the bubble formed that would define Bitcoin until present day. It began with some press in money market sites and key meetings, such as FBI, CIA/Langley, and day trading via MtGox et. al.
The magnificent Manipulator began his quest to shake the tree. Vomit Comet price walls on both sides of the isle shot prices 70% up and 80% down in rapid succession, nothing but amputated fingers all over the floor from everyone trying to catch the knife. We survived. We regrouped and refocused our energies into learning from mistakes. New subgroups formed to quickly overhaul weaknesses and build missing infrastructure.
We also had a huge influx of brutal trolling. It appears that professionals arrived to sway the timid and overrun the forums. We had moderators spoofed, profiles were appearing at the rate of 10-20 a minute and messing every thread with FUD and goading rants designed to intimidate the strongest among us. It seems nobody likes a winner;)
The Current bubble is an almost exact mimic of the last one with perigy appearing to be in the $400 range. Fallback would still place it in the $250-$300 with quick return to even higher evaluation.
The queue in MtGox verification says it all... many new strategic investors are days away from joining Bitcoin and you have that to look forward to.
FF
Everyone was running around like the world was on fire. "This price is unsustainable!" "The market is too green and untested!" "We must build up to infrastructure!"
In the summer of 2011, the bubble formed that would define Bitcoin until present day. It began with some press in money market sites and key meetings, such as FBI, CIA/Langley, and day trading via MtGox et. al.
The magnificent Manipulator began his quest to shake the tree. Vomit Comet price walls on both sides of the isle shot prices 70% up and 80% down in rapid succession, nothing but amputated fingers all over the floor from everyone trying to catch the knife. We survived. We regrouped and refocused our energies into learning from mistakes. New subgroups formed to quickly overhaul weaknesses and build missing infrastructure.
We also had a huge influx of brutal trolling. It appears that professionals arrived to sway the timid and overrun the forums. We had moderators spoofed, profiles were appearing at the rate of 10-20 a minute and messing every thread with FUD and goading rants designed to intimidate the strongest among us. It seems nobody likes a winner;)
The Current bubble is an almost exact mimic of the last one with perigy appearing to be in the $400 range. Fallback would still place it in the $250-$300 with quick return to even higher evaluation.
The queue in MtGox verification says it all... many new strategic investors are days away from joining Bitcoin and you have that to look forward to.
FF
You're in a bubble if you think about Bitcoin all day, and night.
I wouldn't go about superimposing the old-fiat world's structure to what is now Bitcoin.
I wouldn't go about superimposing the old-fiat world's structure to what is now Bitcoin.
I think some powers to be are propping up the price; only to crash it when they have made their profit / target / achieve their goals - be it monetary or to kill btc's interest.
Technologies do S-curves regularly. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle
We are at A on the graphic but how close to M are we? Also how short will the vital life be? That's the question.
There are three possible trajectories.
Up and back down to $40 [L on the wikipedia s-curve graphic] with a very short vital life measured in weeks. A lot of people moving their wealth through bitcoin to gold and something safer than the Euro.
An S curve with it levelling off soon. Long vital life period measured in years.
A bumpy S curve with it levelling off down a $100 but still above the start last year due to the increased awareness and skill. L' on the wikipedia s-curve graphic.
In all three cases the early adopters that created or bought bitcoins below $50 will be cashed up and can now do a lot more work to improve it.
I missed out and wont be buying till it goes back down. I could have bought in when it was at 40c but I spent the money on medical stuff. [Hernia. I do not recommend the illness. OUCH ] I've made the same mistake with gold.
We are at A on the graphic but how close to M are we? Also how short will the vital life be? That's the question.
There are three possible trajectories.
Up and back down to $40 [L on the wikipedia s-curve graphic] with a very short vital life measured in weeks. A lot of people moving their wealth through bitcoin to gold and something safer than the Euro.
An S curve with it levelling off soon. Long vital life period measured in years.
A bumpy S curve with it levelling off down a $100 but still above the start last year due to the increased awareness and skill. L' on the wikipedia s-curve graphic.
In all three cases the early adopters that created or bought bitcoins below $50 will be cashed up and can now do a lot more work to improve it.
I missed out and wont be buying till it goes back down. I could have bought in when it was at 40c but I spent the money on medical stuff. [Hernia. I do not recommend the illness. OUCH ] I've made the same mistake with gold.
No reason for it to burst other than a major robbery or government intervention. I say it cruises on until maybe people think it's not worth as much as they are paying.
I'm pretty sure nobody sees a bubble *ironic wink*, however I don't think this is relevat from a long term perspective. Whatever happens, I am pretty sure the price will be higher than now in 2 years.
Last bubble 2 years back peaked at around 30 usd.
There is a substantial delay, not everybody who wants to buy can do so, it takes time to set up everything (transfer cash to mtgox or everywere else), so the bubble doesn't even expand as fast as possible. I mean I'm desperatly waiting for it to burst, but now I think it might even cross 300 USD.
If you are interested long term, I'd just buy at regular intervals regardles of price. (i.e. 100 USD every week). That way you get the average price over the year
Last bubble 2 years back peaked at around 30 usd.
There is a substantial delay, not everybody who wants to buy can do so, it takes time to set up everything (transfer cash to mtgox or everywere else), so the bubble doesn't even expand as fast as possible. I mean I'm desperatly waiting for it to burst, but now I think it might even cross 300 USD.
If you are interested long term, I'd just buy at regular intervals regardles of price. (i.e. 100 USD every week). That way you get the average price over the year
To me it seems, because Bitcoin appeared in mainstream news recently, and that draws a lot of new interest, and that's why the price goes up. But nobody know how long that interest will last.
I got into BTC at the start of January and did a little buying and selling but only rode the train a little ways into this huge move the past month and a half. I get some bad sensations looking at this chart: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv
Does anyone else see a bubble? I've only been reading off and on the past few weeks as I don't invest too much time into BTC (I see it as a curiousity) but I follow the price everyday on my phone. I am wondering what everyone thinks of this latest move, where is all the demand coming from?
Does anyone else see a bubble? I've only been reading off and on the past few weeks as I don't invest too much time into BTC (I see it as a curiousity) but I follow the price everyday on my phone. I am wondering what everyone thinks of this latest move, where is all the demand coming from?
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