Topic: A Death Knell to Short-term/Intra-day Traders. (Read 190 times)

Nah it wasn't really courage. I lost a lot of time, I lost a lot of health, and I don't want to blame anything, or anyone, but it was my involvement in crypto, especially altcoins, that pushed me to do this. I wasted a lot of previous years in forex, anyway so it wasn't crypto specifically, but my time in crypto really made me a slave to social media. I didn't sleep enough. My work suffered in quality. My personal relationships.

I recently reinstalled Telegram but only to communicate with one or two people. No trading please, the forum is enough

BTW I replied to you on your thread that you shared. Keep the discussions up, I am active in Gambling anyway

Sorry for the late reply.
Sure I will try my best thanks for putting your energy and time into reflecting on my topic. Only sincere intellectuals can identify a good post.
You might like this one as well just contextualize it with trading (instead of gambling); Loss Aversion: A Critical Factor for Responsible Gambling.

Wow! I wish I had such courage and clarity. Maybe you can post an off-topic thread about your experience, this will be a great help.

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No problem, you deserve it. I actually used to be way way more active in Trading section long ago but I found it got more and more low quality.

Please post more such things, I know there are people out there who enjoy this a lot. Science is lacking, pseudo science is the trend in crypto trading

I killed my social media long ago best decision ever. My life is cleaner and focused now

This needs some deep introspection though. I have seen people repeating the same mistakes again and again mindlessly even after many years.

The next generation in general will always be lazy (to the old ones;D). Still, I agree with you on the increasing tendency to take bigger risks as opportunities are also in abundance.
News creators/influencers have so much power over traders nowadays. Look at meme coin space; everyone is telling everyone to hold it so that they can dump it .
Thanks a lot for such words of appreciation, it means a lot especially when it comes from reputed and experienced members like you.

I didn't exactly come to realize it by myself, but my many many mistakes and years of trading forex led me to this.

People in crypto are just the next generation, but even lazier than forex traders, and even more degen.

Same greed tho. And def same fallacies. With even more powerful tools and bigger leverages and less controls. They actually think crypto is better. It is for volatility, yes but for your points crypto is even putting traders at a bigger disadvantage because the news creators have so much more control and timing ahead.

You're an original thinker, just look at the majority of forum threads and how they stand to yours

EMH surfaced around 1970. However, similar concepts were already floating if you came to this realization by yourself kudos! This shows you are an original thinker which is a rare trait nowadays (but might be common in 1990  ).

And definitely will be behind news creators.

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I am assuming you already are a billionaire doing this '99% sure' strategy of yours Or the 1% always get you .

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Remember we are talking about crypto trading not the stocks, big traders might use bots that we can't compete with but it doesn't mean we also have to aim for their profits, we can keep things simple and make profits too unlike stocks. Let's assume we buy bitcoin/USDT pair now and we just wait for the 1% rise in price which will surely happen 99% of the time in the next 24 hours when you see the rise just sell it and then buy back when price goes in red and just keep repeating to make decent profits.

This one is an argument I even used with fellow forex traders 15 years ago! And that was before everyone had fast internet, social media spread out, etc. Today it is even faster to see everything you can possibly know or find out priced in to the market.

We are always behind the true news readers, and every day we are falling even further behind.

I used to follow live news and announcements with 10 second delay but even today you can't compete. Markets move as the information is known, if not before.

Traders refuse to accept this.

EMH and Random Walk are both called hypotheses because they both predict certain correlations between two variables which are testable. Since we have done extensive testing and have scientific conses, both have become scientific theories.
Now I do not think you understand the stature of scientific theory. It is not just a hunch of a creative brilliant person, to have the stature of scientific theory it has to go through rigorous testing and scrutiny to build a scientific consensus in favor.
Yes, scientific theory can change (Falsifiability, an essential trait of a good theory) but not because of the passage of time or some more 'intelligent people' but because of new evidence. It's a cumulative and collaborative process built upon the work of many researchers over time while acknowledging some pioneering individuals.
So just because it is falsifiable does not mean they are not correct it is quite the opposite; scientific theory represents the most accurate and updated explanation of any phenomenon.

EMH and RWH have already established theories. Just a quick Google search will reveal everything to you but since you have asked I will leave some interesting reading (which you can read and come back to) material for you;

For EMH (with critical aspects, not only favorable stories so that you can make up your mind)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212567115014161 (harsh criticism you might like it.)
https://journals.openedition.org/fcs/3821
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324971038_THE_EFFICIENT_MARKET_HYPOTHESIS_A_CRITICAL_REVIEW_OF_LITERATURE_AND_METHODOLOGY

For RWH
https://www.chicagobooth.edu/~/media/34F68FFD9CC04EF1A76901F6C61C0A76.PDF  
https://people.math.rochester.edu/faculty/akrish11/Research/student-papers/Random%20walk%20hypothesis%20paper.pdf (Just read conclusion)
https://www.caluniv.ac.in/dj/BS-Journal/vol-35-36/iv.%20Revisiting_Random.pdf (This one does not negate RWH but concludes that the market is not efficient, interesting one)

It is like saying just because a dice gambler doesn't come up here announcing the bets they won doesn't mean they didn't win. Of course, you can win for a short term but it will never be a way to make sustainable profit.

Well, this is true by definition otherwise they are being called long-term investors. .

I know that some people have mastered the scam of luring noobs into believing that Intra-day/short-term trading can lead to fortune and they are making millions by selling videos/courses. All they will tell you is that the fault lies in you. You are not practicing enough. It is like practicing roulette strategy, no matter how patient and skilled you are you will always lose in the long term.


Jus see the number of bets in any reputed online casino and you will be amazed that this argument still holds .

really!!

Hypotheses and Theories can also be wrong after a certain time most especially when someone "more intelligent" brings up another theory, you know?

To prove that mathematically it is impossible to be profitable in the long term doing Short-term/Intra-day trading.