Topic: A good observer makes a better speculator (Read 750 times)

A good observer I guess, knows what he is observing. Everyone could observe but not everyone could understand or simbly be organized observing. Perhaps on a experiment; you cannot observe every aspect, you need to focus onky on the things you needed to find explanation of.Being a good speculator on the other hand, speculates with basis and not by mere assumptions. So I guess a good observer could become a good speculator simply because if he knows what he is trying to observe, he can create an especulation which has a tendency to be close , if not exactly, to the assumptions. Unlike with people who just throws random speculations because that's his/her "feeling" of something. Speculation itself is subjective but if you want to atleast fill it with substance, then you better be objective on some aspects to make an educated guess.

Yeah I understand that mate because getting the right timing isn't that easy , but at least we knew that there will be chances to find good pattern and observation to have better understanding.

That is what we knew and understand that many does not , they are only looking for easy income that turns out being a loser in the future instead.

What makes a good observer, though? Anyone can be taught to read a chart. Anyone can be taught to read the news and make conclusions. Trading schools are a dime a dozen (and cost many dimes to learn) but why is it that even the best eventually fail in a bear market?

One might argue the best speculator doesn't allow to be made into an observer... Especially in an age where you are given the news you want to read.

I think proactive insight seeking is rare, and even that doesn't make you a good speculator.

But still, it will be difficult to predict where the bitcoin price will go. But by adding other information about the news that happened in a week, it can add to our analysis so that we can know more about where the price will go. But when they only choose to invest, they only need to buy when the price falls or it doesn't matter what the price is because they invest daily, weekly or monthly. We can only try to guess the price will move, but we don't know exactly where the price will be.

Therefore it is important to make an investment plan correctly, so that every time we take the opportunity to enter the market we can convert profits. Investors must have their own understanding to take part, but because the conditions were not good, they tried to hold off for a while in entering the market. Not only is it an option, but rather bitcoin is a very promising investment, that's why many people have started taking part in bitcoin, even though there are fluctuations in it that cannot be ignored.

You sound unbelievably amazing lmao!
When you know how to read the chart, which is not really a complicated case, there still no guarantee you can predict the price "exactly" the next day.
Even those who are considered as expert in predicting Bitcoin's price using several methods including the studying of charts, can't even predict what the specific price should Bitcoin sit at.

chart is not the only thing that will make you a good speculator instead it is your complete knowledge of the market, and this is really a big understanding that we must deal for us to gain more than losing.
that is a very stupid word to believe, because there is no such word as exactly in crypto speculation.



stop that exactly word because you are only making your post more stupid mate , just speculate but never assume the exact figure or value.

The only thing that will make you to become a good speculator in cryptocurrency is when you have known how to read the chart, because it's when you study chart very well that will make you to know exactly what price of cryptocurrency will result out tommorow, some people doesn't understand the price of Bitcoin sometimes but they will make analysis of what they don't exactly and when people follow the steps and they Falls for their investment

To be fair that is not as easy as it sounds to so many people, no idea why and how. It’s clear that we are talking about something that shouldn't be too difficult and yet it is for so many traders out there. It’s easy, if it is anything under 50% than you buy it. So to give an example on bitcoin, the peak was at 68k right? That means anything under 34k is not really a situation that you need to worry about, it’s definitely a good price point to buy.

Yes, I know if you bought at 32k that would be nearly another 50% down, that means you could buy again! Great job! You just now bought at 50% down twice in a row which means you could make so much more profit. Making x4 from here on out is child’s play if you could wait it out.

Investors who have already made a lot of profit through their investments will not feel panicked in conditions like now, because they can all save some of their assets so as not to lose more before trying to buy back at a very different price. Bitcoin is everyone's choice and has also become a very common choice for everyone when making investments, because investors who have more money obviously will never stay silent to continue investing in several different spaces under certain conditions.

Yes, it all depends on the desire of each person to do it, because buying to save without a profit target will be very different from buying or investing at a low price at this time. Someone who wants to buy anything at a low price is definitely because they want to set a profit target in the future. And I think it's a very natural thing too because you want to take advantage of a good opportunity to reap better results after a year or so.

Buy low sell high , that is what the market commonly says and advise everyone but the timing isn't that easy to take as we can buy when pumping or when before pump or we can sell in drowning or before drown.

but the interesting part is how long we can stand holding and how hard we can take the market situation.
because in that part we can prove how functional we are to be a crypto speculator or observer and of course profiting .

The way to invest definitely varies, depending on how ready people are to enter the market, while capital is the reason for using the investment made, when someone is unable to buy as much bitcoin as he wants, then the steps that must be taken are to buy gradually and be done consistently.

Technical matters that are not studied carefully can also make a person lose money in investing, such as mistakes in determining coins, the right time to enter the market or panic when the market is corrected. It's different when we choose bitcoin for investment, because bitcoin has gone through a long process and is getting stronger to invest, you don't even have to wait up to 30 years.

I would say finding that is more important than investment. If you have just one capital and nothing more, you have a bigger problem than what to invest on. You need to figure out a way to keep investing more and more. I think people will assume I am joking, but a guy who has 100k today, will not make as much profit as the guy who invest into bitcoin 50 bucks a month for the next 30 years.

The reason being, the guy with 100k could end up losing their money while investing, and make mistakes which could cause trouble and there is no recovery for them. Whereas the guy with 50 bucks a month on bitcoin alone and nothing else, no other coins, would make a big profit when you calculate the 30 years alone, plus all the increases that will happen.

Not all traders have spare money when they start entering the market, sometimes the capital they have will not be able to buy a certain amount of bitcoins, so I prefer to invest when the bitcoin price starts to fall, for some people who don't have a lot of capital, it is highly recommended to buy in conditions like today, in order to make a good investment conversion.

In contrast to investors who have enough capital to enter the market at any price, because they are financially strong, and it is true that this really depends on how we trust the market, but more precisely being able to reach the market at the right time.

There is no trigger for now bitcoin is moving on a greener upper line candlestick, Bitcoin candlestick analysis theory can predict a bullish or bearish reversal signal, but due to stronger triggering conditions towards a correction, so the chance to break out of the global downtrend will be much more difficult, the combined cycle of four-year achievements also still looks far away, if calculated after the achievement of the previous year's ATH. Gradual recovery will continue, but it is difficult to calculate the stable price range.

I remember your post related to cycles, today what you said we saw clearly, the events of the bitcoin journey in which direction the cycle will move, as well as the pictures you uploaded in the post will make it easier for us to understand the course of bitcoin. There is no need to worry too much though, as bitcoin will find a recovery cycle before hitting the next ATH.

Buy and Hold Bitcoin, because when the Cycle works perfectly, achieving ATH will give maximum results for anyone, for me there is no doubt to see any potential that is born in the market today, because the bitcoin Cycle has been running for almost two decades since at that time. The rollout has started, therefore we will prepare for the next ATH milestone by making purchases in stages.

Experience is what it means. Of course, spending a lot of time more than anyone is a big advantage and a bigger chance to project what will probably happen next. However, in a situation where price movement is unpredictable, all we have is just a sort of market speculation and mostly it ends wrong. Because no matter how long you have been observing the market, we can't still assume that we know already and we are right. Even experts fail to see what exactly will happen which means that it also happens to everyone.

actually this is depending on how we wanted to trust the market  because even if the price is high still we can buy and keep hold specially if we have funds reserve for investing in crypto.
but if you are longing to get high return then best to invest when the market is dumping like now,so better buy this time and wait for a year or so.

This category is what people often do, buy when the price is down and cheap, Although we can't make precise speculations about the journey of bitcoin, but people will prefer it over other coins, investors experience disappointment from the current market reaction, even many people make mistakes and sell some of the assets they have, panic will only lead us to ruin, stay calm until the market finds a gradual recovery, it is much better than doing something to the detriment of the investment we made.

Most people who buy anything or for example like to buy Bitcoin at a low price and sell it when they see there has been a 100% increase in price. It's still in a very reasonable category to do because they are basically looking for profit so selling because they already have a profit is not a mistake in my opinion

What you say is very true and very precise. Because there is also a limit to being patient and the limit for a person's patience is until they really see the advantages they have when they want to sell. And it's logical again that patience doesn't need to be preached to everyone because everyone has their own principles in being patient even though the goal is not much different, namely looking for profit after buying in the past.

Only losing will provide you by Holding a coin(specially shitcoin ) losing that amount of percentage . 90% of drop is almost a dead investment and I would rather sell when the drop goes to 50% and then wait or seek for other coins to invest with , though if we are talking about top 5 coins then indeed best to protect your coins by HODLING and never comes panicking because that will also leads you to more losses.
HODLING is something we must understand and that is to bring longer handling of the coin , no matter what will happen.

Indeed we can't assume that everyone has the courage to hold and take advantage of the situation. A lot of investors are still showing disappointment when seeing the price drop, in fact, they are thinking collapse of the market which leads them to sell. At first, I think that the more we check and observe the market, the more we understand how it works but there is something wrong happens, it only creates panic in others. And the more they become disturbed by what they have seen.

You will not always preach patient to hodl coins if you can know that 200% rise is the height of it, I think you can sell which you will wait for the low to buy and hodl again. Hodling is not to be a blind thing but a smart person is there taking the advantage of the market. This is the simple calculation that I hear sell when it is high and buy when it is low.

This is to be expected as no one can really predict what the market is going to do all the time, so what is the next step for speculators? To have a strong money management strategy, even if your ability to predict the markets was just slightly better than what you could get by random guessing, as long as you limited your losses with the use of a stop loss and you let your winning trades run that will be enough to produce profits.

Unfortunately many speculators have unrealistic views about what they can achieve, and they want to increase their accuracy to the point they compromise the profits they could possible get by refusing to use a stop loss.

Observations in speculation are often associated with investment and business, although speculation cannot fully describe investment and business activities. Investment and business is an activity that really takes into account the risk in the future, not just luck like speculation.

In making observations, there are actors who usually only think about abundant profits and are not based on in-depth analysis and careful calculations. This makes speculation a part of business activity that cannot be separated from price fluctuations. In doing speculation, it is necessary to have a principle that is oriented to "high risk, high return", meaning that wanting big profits means having the courage to take big risks as well.

This is the real key to speculation, big profits can be obtained even greater than investment activities. A big crisis with speculation is a major step towards making big profits, not just chancy. When a businessman manages to get through a difficult time or crisis, it is certain that massive profits can be obtained.

A clear example of the principle of speculation is when a businessman decides to buy disputed land at a very cheap price. The risk of buying it is certainly very large because of the dispute. However, when disputes are successfully resolved, land prices can soar.

Possible, but even with individual with so much experience, they could also be making wrong predictions, in short no one can really predict how the market is going to move even if you understand at least the most part of trading and technical analysis.

So still a hit or miss for us, but the thing is that we continue to grind day and night and always find a way to make money regardless of what is the current market sentiment is. There could be speculators that are still making money even in a bear season like what we are in right now.

Finding profit is not an easy thing even though it can still be done by everyone, because market conditions are not always the same as last year so making price predictions by taking references from last year will not always be right. Moreover, if some beginners only rely on their filing for this, it is clear that there will be no accuracy at all so that the potential for profit or not is also difficult to know even though they (newbies) will continue to make purchases when price drops occur in the market.

With experience, we can know and predict prices well, most beginners always speculate and only rely on feeling to buy and sell, and the best thing for profit is to always be patient and sell at a profit price, especially on spot exchanges then everything becomes easier to trade. buy or sell.

It would really be just a normal act specially if you do really give out importance of the money you are investing which you cant really make yourself on rushing up on making investment decisions.
No one really likes on losing up soo much money thats why you should really be that wise and be that observant when it comes to price movements.Its true that being observer isnt that bad
which you could really study out into those probabilities and possible scenarios but of course, this isnt talking about observing all the time.You should really need to act into something
so that you wont really be missing out opportunities.

Speculation is not only for the people planning to buy some coins but as someone that likes the business, you can speculate to yourself where the coin price will move to and this is good for you to taste your ability of understanding what is happening in cryptocurrency. It also build the interest so you can encourage yourself to invest when you have money because you already having good knowledge to make money from it.

There is no need to speculate the market if you are not planning to buy the coins. I mean in case of BTC for the ones who already bought, their only motive is to hodl. If you just worry about the market, then definitely you will lose patience and ultimately you will end making of loss. A good observer definitely makes a better speculator, but sometimes we only need to observe, no need to worry about the market. This is my opinion , willing to hear other people’s opinion on this.

Yes OP, I do agree that "a good observer makes a better speculator" but that is only the thing, that person can't still predict what will happen next.
He could speculate what we see (just like the normal thing we do), but his focus and time spend in the market make this person even better. However, it was not the only reason why we succeed here, we should also be smart, especially when making a decision which is most of the time we fail in this.

Because with that events either bad or good you can compare the possible scene that might happen in the market that's why its good to be observant on how the market goes. If many newbies will extend more their knowledge and always base their actions towards current conditions on what they observe then we can see more healthy discussion about earnings even if there's bearish condition happening.

Are you a successful trader? Have you made a lot of money in trading? Because that's precisely the implication of what you're saying, that it is easier to predict short term price movements than long term. So tell me, what's your price prediction of Bitcoin tomorrow? In the next 3 days? Or next week? What's going to be the price of Bitcoin next month?

Here's my long-term prediction: Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2025. That's an easy prediction.

The forum is not exclusively made up of people who are discussing about bears and corrections. If that's what you think is the purpose of this forum, I'm sure you're wrong.

I think it's more easier to predict short term than long term because a lot of things can happen in the long term which could affect the flow of the price. Not only newbies but all are affected whenever there's a correction and bears. All of our portfolio goes down but maybe it's true that more newbies can panic though it's also possible for a newbie to study the market first so that they will know what to expect on here.

A lot of us in the forum are experienced btc users but we are still hoping that the price will now recover. If you aren't really bothered then you aren't supposed to be here in this forum joining the discussion about the bears and correction.

That's true. If you heard about a big bad news that is related to Bitcoin in one way or another, you would understand if the price would react negatively like what happened when Elon suddenly announced that Tesla has stopped accepting Bitcoin payment or when China announced it bans mining. But as somebody who has been with Bitcoin for a long time, you wouldn't panic or be worried. Such situations couldn't affect you anymore.

Bitcoin has seen over +3.85% in the last 24hours. There is a strong indication 26th of October will end Bullish as well, After wards we enjoy a little of range market for a while before the market decides where next to move. A little profit for the buyers and more profit for the holders. Traders will have some fun night tonight especially the day traders who go long most often. After the first two candle stick breaking the morning of 26th it will be more riskier for day traders to join the trend except the 4 hrs candle stick keeps closing with a higher wick and a lower body.

Observation is an important skill anywhere, A good observer of the market movement will make a good speculator. To become a good speculator, learning to be observant is a must. To become better in speculating, these are some advice from more experienced speculators.
Never act on tips, There are times when you should speculate and times when you should not, Anticipate the psychological effect of a particular piece of news on the mind of the public, Learn to recognize danger signals.

Learn more from professional speculators here: https://guerric.co.uk/how-to-speculate/

In terms of market observations, each observer has a different view in his efforts to approach the profit point. I can say the speculation is born of those who choose to day trade. By any other name, they are day traders. Their strategies are also definitely different.
What you say is not wrong. For me, it is a part that must be considered as a form of caution. If we try to offer this kind of speculation to long-term traders, maybe they will refuse in a wise way to avoid misunderstandings.

In fact nothing is perfect but at least a few things can help. Experience, expertise, observation, and courage in decision making, as well as emotional control are some of the things that will be very influential. Of course it is clear that these things will really help the trader to get good results, but not all of them will achieve perfect.

Hope you will not scatter my brain with this observation and speculation conspiracy, just call it one as you deem best for you, yet I prefer to call it speculation. They are synonymous with each other so far they are good enough to spot a good trading decision for you. But you seem not to be a good speculator if your chart and explanations are still lacking the timeframe to back your point. Additionally, my advice to you is to use beyond price action if you want your accuracy to be high.

Sorry to ask on what time frame are you making your view from, keep in mind you might not have same view with others if they aren't using same time frame with you. The bitcoin market is hard to be speculated mostly few people have gotten many conclusion in the past about the price and yet we don't still gets to what they said, so then I concluded bitcoin price are magical where none can predicts it the way it seems.

Though I agree that a good observation is necessary to verify knowledge, indicators you learn and recognize signals from the market, a good observer is not enough as you must be very disciplined to change your idea, plan to real order activities that work for you.

Bad disciplined is one of biggest drawbacks that prevent most of investors and traders can not get profit in the market. The majority are undisciplined, impatient and emotional responsive, hence they are losers.

You control your computer, laptop, smart phone and keyboard, touch pad so if you can not control what you are doing, nobody can help you.

Yeah, because you will familiarize the market, how it moves, how it behaves, how it reacts.
Let's say for example there is a lot of news negative or positive news about Bitcoin or even FUD, then you will be ready for how the price of Bitcoin will react especially since you already experienced that multiple times and you are already used to it. It will really help you.

I agree. The longer and more immersed you are in the market, the more familiar you are with its possibilities. It may be hard to track down Bitcoin's price in terms of hours, days, weeks, and months, but the long term prospects may be a little easier to speculate. This is definitely one of the reasons why only newbies are usually affected by corrections and bear cycles. They're the ones who have the tendency to panic. The ones who have been with the market long enough aren't bothered.

People have a different approach to the market but that's right, an observer has more advantages than those people who didn't have an idea of how the market going on and dive into it easily thinking that they will gain profit as easily by investing in crypto.  Different sources might be useful too to predict the market price though isn't accurate but at least you know it already the possible consequences.

It's very crucial if you're a day trader, there are too many patterns that you need to watch and observe to be a better speculator.

We've made 3 attempts in 11 days to break the weekly and monthly averages, its passed each time but failed to set above on any high, we have fallen back each time.    I dont know if some will take this as bearish because we've tried and failed, but I take that 3 occurrences to break this range occurred so close together is probably quite bullish to the energy BTC retains for movement.   It doesn't feel we are too threatened downwards. most sellers are already done and gone.   Anyone selling now most likely bought at a price nearby and just wanted a bet, it didnt pay off so they leave but sum total is that we dont move much as great belief to make big bets is not there.   The wider market is bone dry from a lack of liquidity, all we remain with then is a far slower more boring BTC trend minus the hot money hoping for large gains.
   Observation without bias is hard to do, my take from us going sideways is mostly patience is required and information hour by hour or even daily is not there; dont spin your wheels sitting at a red light.   Adjust your pace to suit the terrain its just a slow drift with an empty sky,   A steady price can be a positive for some business, I dont assume its a negative from our own personal bias of wanting to trade difference in prices when others just want this flat price and price stability helps them.   Underlying BTC continues on fine and this price only appears low if we ignore beyond 2 years.

honestly it's worth considering in the context that every observer has their own pattern in every movement of the candles they paint. It's natural that there are many observers in this forum and outside the forum I mean on social media, Twitter, many observers share about the analysis of price movements today and tomorrow. but if we look at it at a glance everything is almost similar in the style of analysis that is shared. maybe for me as a futures trader it will be useful to compare with the analysis I use but the fact is that there are often discrepancies when the market situation changes rapidly. perhaps an important option, the more wise observers, the more helpful it is for traders to find the best level of accuracy.

Actually you are right from the caution of the thread, concerning a observer makes a positive speculation, actually some traders might feel that they are good observer base on the way they interprets the movement of their candle sticks, and that is the perception i can disagree with the caution of the subject. In chat you can speculate due to your observation base your ability to decode the candles movement as i portray from initial.

Say it's not financial advice, I hope people understand.
Zilon, you can believe in whatever you believe to be right and you are free to do it for yourself but try to send a message to the readers that all this is just an analysis that cannot fully guarantee a profit.

I'm not a day trader and I think I've been ignoring this for a long time. I tend to buy in dips, while trying to save my real-world monthly income for investment. In the short term or daily, I think the candle will really help the trader to maximize profit opportunities, but about the long term I think I really should ignore the small shocks.

If it is scale that makes it look like that as you claim meaning there way large amount of transaction in that very 4hrs candle trading time where the body is far bigger than the wick. Be observant enough the last time we had similar candle stick around 0ctober 19' on a 4hrs chart price hasn't close below that very candle you can check your chart to confirm. I am not saying this is a buy signal but it is a call for alertness we might be expecting a small price action anytime soon.

Its not that this candle was long or strong. Its the scale that makes it looks like that. Bitcoin is locked in consolidation for last 4 months. Volatility is constantly going down. Last 1.5 month bitcoin is going super flat. Thats why as small as 400$/2% daily candle looks so impressive on small scale. But not so long ago we've seen 5x longer candles -f.e 10% daily bullish candle 09.09.2022 19200-21300. Or 10x stronger -4000$ daily bearish candle 26500-22400 (-15%) in 13.06.2022

There are lot of criteria that must be considered to become good in price speculation but i will like to see how far an observer can go with speculating Bitcoin price and maybe some few good altcoin out there. When it comes to speculation been active with price movement and managing greed level can also play a big factor in deciding the level of accuracy and precision once speculation can go this two seems much more easier compared to becoming diligent in observation.

Observation is one aspect of speculation that even the pro-speculator still battle with. We will all agree that price is never consistent with the market because crypto assets are highly volatile and so therefore been observant on the regular changes as regards price, what triggered the change, how much of the effect was seen on the market as regard the cause of the change and how often this change in has occurred in the market.

As regards Bitcoin which has been ranging around $19k for a while now there is a long bullish candle formed on 23rd October 2022 around 18:00 GMT +1 where price moved from $19,200 to around $19,611 before the bearish engilfing candle pushed price down at a resistance zone keeping the trade on till the next day 24th October 2022. It might not be a very significant change but that long Bullish candle is sending a strong future message because since then we haven't seen a bearish candle that has contended with it till date. It can be a powerful signal to keep buyers at alert for possible bull run maybe a short one or a long term push.


Like i mentioned earlier the effect might not be immediate on the price but i believe it is a message for a some positive future moves