Topic: A huge storm is coming (Read 6627 times)

Suppose that you are selling goods, and suddenly all your customer have less USD to spend, that impact your sale, what will you do? You will welcome customers with other money like bitcoin, that is what I mean

Because it is not very useful for shopping and easy to counterfeit. I also think that it is a shame that people need to store their wealth in gold in XXI century.  I like gold... on my woman.

The shortage of USD has given strength to the USD. If I owned USD, and USD is growing in strength, why would I sell it for a weaker asset?

I wouldn't.

Its game over for greece.. Merkel about to kick their ass off, as predicted.

Gold is actually something tangible that you can hold. Why does it represent hopelessness? I don't follow your point?

Gold as a currency represents hopelessness.  We should all hope that gold is used for circuits and electronics instead of money.

All hope is now on the finances minister Varoufakis, if he can't solve this situation he promised that he would retire from politics.

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Greece is back in the news again, and not in a good way.

The European Central Bank just fired a shot:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/ecb-pulls-trigger-blocks-funding-greece

Are we on like Donkey-Kong?

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Turkey ain't doing so great either, their Lira just took a big dive.

Yup but it will eventually collapse, you cant keep making houses out of thin air and expect not to fall.

The news of full of the same ideas right now. They say that 2015 will be a make or break year for Bitcoin?
I am not really sure how they come to this conclusion? Certainly 2013-14 were as important years for Bitcoin?
For me it just seems like a lot of unnecessary hype. Bitcoin is here to stay.

All will be fine. My guess is as long as their is paper and ink. they will just keep printing money.
Want proof? The European Union just did it!

There's no doubt that 2015 will be a definitive year in the U.S.'s economic standings when compared to past 'performance' and other countries.

Here's what we need to look at... The U.S. is a nearly 239 year old country; a very young country with a record-breaking economy fueled by foreign investment. Government spending on the grand scale will not be a lead to economic demise in the near future, as those vested will not let it be so. The only things to look for in the near future (in my opinion, of course) would be:

- A revisit to the farm crisis (despite low rates, we will be seeing a large turnover as farms are passed to the next generations; baby-boomer)
- Student loan default on a grand scale (a bit early on this yet)
- Nikkei 225 Down-trend indicators similar to that of Dot-Com and Sub-Prime eras
- Chinese growth regressing as a result of government-manipulation being pulled (this will create an interesting ripple effect in major consumer economies and will ultimately lead to extreme wealth distribution issues in China 'at first')
- Our foreign investors re-investing in new markets such as India
- Auto industry correction as crude increases or gas prices are legislatively 'smoothed out' (record industry numbers on a shallow downtrend don't bode well)

These are some of the things that I will be looking at as I move forward in my trading year. Am I worried about the economy? No. As a financial professional, broker, and advisor, volatility is what allows me a career. I believe that BTC will continue to create waves in terms of economic transformation across the spectrum, and for that reason I will have it as a part of my portfolio with regards to research and finances alike.

What is so hard to use about bitcoin?

I have seen 5 year olds make transactions with only the slightest assistance. 
It is easier than email because you don't need an email provider. 

However it doesn't matter how easy something is; if nobody ever showed you how to do it you probably don't know it. 

What might be hard is understanding why it is important and beneficial to use.   

Of course they continue covertly, it's the Feds.

They'll just keep printing money into their pockets and that of their friends and before the market notices the extra several trillions they already made their profit. What do they care about hyperinflation anyway? They can just print more, and if paper becomes more expensive than dollar, they'll just invent 1 trillion dollar bills.

The war bubble?

i think thats will makes a epic to rebuy before rising price

USD will be good for a while, they are the money makers for all we know.
But EU, and the smaller countries will be in big trouble.

This could happen when people still had room to recover from the IT bubble 15 years ago. But instead of doing that, FED pumped up housing bubble to recover from the collapse of the IT bubble, and followed by an even giant debt bubble to recover from housing bubble's collapse, now they are running out of bubbles and when it stalled, everything happened in the past 15 years will be undone, means almost everything is malinvestment since 2000, no one can afford such a loss

This topic is fascinating. Enjoying seeing all the news coming in about all the EU countries, etc. Any thoughts on the USD?  I haven't scrolled up yet, but if  this was already discussed, please disregard.

They can kick the shit out of Greece if they want to, but they cant kick Spain, EU depends a lot on it, a lot of Tourism goes there. It will be a disaster to let Spain go. Interesting times indeed. Looking forward to the 28th.

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Greece is back in the news re a economic huge storm.  The new Syriza (leftist) government apparently will not knuckle under to the "Troika" (the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF) re Greece borrowing more in exchange for more austerity there in Greece.  Syriza looks like they want to default or at least get BIG concessions from Germany.  Greece has a debt:GDP of about 175% IIRC.

There is a deadline, FWIW, of February 28 for Greece to agree.

Greece has suffered horribly the past few years, it currently has an unemployment of some 25%, YOUTH unemployment of 50%.  There seems to be a lot of blame to go around:

-- greedy banksters (including Goldman-Sachs helping a prior Greek government to cook its books)
-- general corruption in Greece
-- unwillingness of Germany (and a few others) to absorb the debts of Greece
-- the European Central Bank (led by ex-Goldman employee Mario Draghi)

Etc.

Why does Greece matter?  Its economy is small.  But a "Grexit" (Greek Exit) might be contagious.  Spain has a new & increasingly popular leftist party ("Podemos" = "We Can") that wants to default too, they just had a huge rally in Madrid, apparently in support of Greece.  Spain is TBTF, a failure there would destroy many banks in Europe.

zerohedge.com has been closely following events in Greece and Europe.

And this is a good thing (TM).
It would be good, long term, because these jobs were create by malinvestments (capital wrongly allocated to not really profitable business).

If too much homes were built, the sane thing to do is stop building new homes where no one is requested or needed.

The people and the capital freed by the bust will be reallocated, given time, to more productive use. Hopefully, a use able to give back a profit without external manipulations.

My personal opinion is that the USD will never see the end of a QE 5.

i think new storm already coming back now

Time for the fed to implement qe4 stealth mode :-)

BTC is nowhere near in the situation to provide that volume. The orders of magnitude in difference in liquidity is too much to even think about it.

excatly! That's why we need Bitcoin and cryptos to free regular people from dept slavery in current fiat system. by buying btc now
we can get ready for what's coming: The end of the fiat system

1957 launched 100$ bill has lost 87% of it's value by 2005. and that was before currency wars and QE printing started!

QE 4, 5, 6, 7 will arrive in some months/years.

(Red colorization mine.)

This weeks dramatic volatility in stock market and a soaring bond/gold price indicated that this storm is getting close

It is clear that without stimulus the economy will fall back to recession right away,  and with stimulus, the effect of each stimulus is getting weaker and weaker, since humans are all adaptive

Maybe this is the official end of Keynesian economics

Its almost like the economy forgot that it can't operate without huge amounts of stimulus
Yah their is going to be some strong pullback because of QE3 it affects the oil prices as well
Question is if there are enough counterbalancing effects to negate the brunt of the damage.

Dollar is over-produced together with those over-produced goods and services so that you feel the dollar price of everything is stable

By the way, dollar has fallen 15% against swiss franc and 20% against bitcoin today, all the valuation is relative

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While I am pleased to be a participant in the whole Bitcoin experiment (and have a decent chunk), I would be very hesitant to dismiss gold, which has a 5000 year + history as the world's premier store of value.

Bitcoin's future history is quite unproven.  Gold will do just fine for many years to come.

Buy and hold both!

Things evolve. Deal with it

No illusions here. Facts are we went off the gold standard in '71 nobody is preventing anyone from using/obtaining gold but I would say the dollar is more stable it is why we we say x amount of gold is worth 1xxxUSD and not 1000au.

Gold is the closest thing to a universal currency for thousands of years. Dollar has fallen against gold and lost 96% of its value since 1971, its value is an illusion, since it is created out of nothing. you can have an illusion for as long as you believe it, and there are many people who believe in its value because they simply don't understand how money works. Banks have created so many illusions to hide the truth and average Joe has no way to get it

(Red colorization mine.)

I don't follow. I say USD is stable because it is the closest thing to a universal currency. We don't have a gold standard anymore. Everything is calculated in terms of dollar amounts because it is the most stable.

There is no such thing as stable currency, value is all relative, a scientific unit of value only exists in people's imagination. People tends to believe that their domestic currency is the unit of value, but not any foreign currency. So for a Japanese people, USD is not stable at all since it rose a lot against Japanese Yen recent years. Similarly, it rise against Rubble and petroleum by 50% in one year, while it fell against bitcoin by 1000% in two years

Probably in the medium term

If the house price crash, normal working people will lose their job, because the total consumption of the whole society will shrink dramatically when many people are underwater and have to pay much more to bank to have their house. Then many companies' sale will plummet and a mass scale of firing workers will follow

USD is the most stable currency in the world. Don't think that will change soon.

I would never trust an easily manipulated currency as a store of value, personally.  If, of course, you simply use it as a currency by recieving it with one hand and instantly spending it with the other...then it becomes useful.  It doesn' need a sudden price rise, or stability, for that matter, to become useful.  Just an increased velocity of transactions.

Im going to wait one more week then buy

I'll keep buying on the way down.

and that storm came
now prize under 200 dolar
that storm can be gone now.. 

A bank could also attempt to “persuade [its] customer[𝗌] to withdraw [𝑋-]coin,” its own currency, in a postmodern rebirth of the U.S.’ ante-“FED” banking system.

I'm compiling and upkeeping a chart with the data about inflation of BTC, M1 and MB (money Base) of the USD:
The 24/12/2014 the Fed increased the MB just USD 256 billions (+8.8% compared to the previous year) and then, two weeks later, the data was confirmed with a +7.1% compared to the previous year).
Now, one point could happen, two points could be a coincidence so I want a third point to confirm my suspects the Fed have started a covert QE program without announcing it.
If the MB go up more than 9% or, better grow more than bitcoins, this would be very very bullish medium term.

It would make housing affordable to normal working people again without the need to become a bank tenants for 30 years or more.

Yes. I think it will be a safe storage of value in that scenario. It has suffered recently because it went up too fast in 2013, and the US$ is stronger because it is itself a safe haven from many other weak fiat currencies.

Mega housing market crash would be the best thing to happen to society, cut the average joe stupid baby boomer wealth right off.

source
http://etfdailynews.com/2015/01/13/the-crashing-price-of-oil-is-going-to-rip-the-global-economy-to-shreds/

A shining refuge would mean the price goes up, or at least maintains its price. Do you think during a legit wreckage scenareo the price will be solid to store your value on BTC??

Indeed, lots of plates spinning which are banks trying to keep going.
Fed bailout money for banks is funneled through the FDIC, which has now been put on the hook for up to $100 trillion of derivatives (depending  upon how many net off), thanks to Citi and a clause on page 1599 in the recent 1604 page Cronybus congressional spending bill.
I don't think Bitcoin will have significance in the coming banking crisis, but it will be a shining refuge in the wreckage.

FED won't be able to unload those assets, they don't even have enough money to deal with the current liquidity shortage, the only option is to print more

And if bitcoin is going to provide some liquidity for the real economy, a single bitcoin will need to exchange 100 or 1000 times more goods than it did today, how is that achievable without enough fiat money supply to first push its exchange rate several magnitudes up?

Imagine such a scenario: Since all the banks operate on fractional reserve, when there are large waves of liquidity problem, some of them will have no money to deal with withdraw. In such a situation,  they either go bankrupt or turn to FED to borrow USD. If FED do not give them money like they treated Lehman Brothers, then they might consider persuade their customer to withdraw bitcoin instead, so that they can borrow some bitcoin from large bitcoin holders

Since most of the large bitcoin holders have 100% reserve ratio, they would be able to provide bitcoin loan to these banks, but they will ask for a mortgage for the loan. And since these banks do not have money to buy bitcoin, they might put a very high value asset as mortgage. Actually if a coin could worth billions, then they will only need to borrow a couple of coins to turn the tide. At first this practice might be very small scale, but when it gets popular, the liquidity of bitcoin will also have problem, then the value of bitcoin will shot up quickly

What the Fed stops overtly it continues covertly:



$1.6 trillion of mortgage backed securities (yes sub-prime ninja loans) purchased in recent years by the Fed from TBTF banks and hedgies eager to unload their toxic garbage. All of it paid for via QE and finger down on Ctrl-P.

The commodities (and EM currencies crash) is more to do with the world economy being jammed into first gear.

We need more widespread use for BTC to serve in a "liquidity Savior" role, but it's a cool idea.

Don't worry so much about the Fed ending quantitative easing, it's just like someone going on a diet after an eating binge...the rocky times are good, we need to recover honestly.

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Mmm, it seems to me like we are still too early in BTC's life that it would do much to provide liquidity in our huge economy.  It is still hard to use (for almost everyone not members of bitcointalk).  And BTC's total market cap is pretty tiny vs. US GDP.

My guess is that in the end (when I do not know) they will just print the money.  My banker said that.

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QE3 has been terminated for more than 2 months, and we are already seeing crash in almost every commodity and other currency in the world. In 2007, FED stopped stimulant, then after a little over a year, a liquidity crisis finally hit housing market and brought financial crisis. It seems this time FED has much less time and room to maneuver

The Rational Expectations theory can explain this: If everyone knows that when FED print then economy get some support and when FED stopped printing the economy will go bad, then it is better sell after QE stopped. After several run, everyone has learned the trick, then the stimulant will not work any more

But, when there is a shortage of USD now, will bitcoin become a liquidity provider?

For example, companies want to sell products, but buyers do not have USD any more, but they have bitcoin, so that is also some kind of transaction medium for the company, then this income can be used to improve the liquidity situation of the company. They can sell the coin in exchange for those already very limited USD, but that will just lower the bitcoin value, thus make the liquidity situation worse. So they might just spend bitcoin so that it does not affect the exchange rate, and the overall liquidity situation will improve

An extreme situation will be that FED start to sell assets and further reduce the money supply, then very quickly there will be no money in the banking system, if everyone has no money, then many thing's price will crash to zero. But now people have another option to use bitcoin to do transactions, so they will not need to sell assets for USD, thus there will be no crash of the housing market, oil, etc...