Topic: A move (almost) no one is expecting: gap at $11795 (Read 925 times)

The shake continues as the market is having a small correction today. This is a cycle which is going on and the weak hands is a term created to put a blame on someone  .

The price of bitcoin touched around $12400 and the correction started, i was surprised to see that the price was trying to break the resistance when it crossed $12000 but it could not last longer, waiting for the market response in the next two days and i hope that the market will not go for a major correction.

They will learned the hard way that these random topics should not always consider and let your own decision should be your guide, take a lok back what happen in March when news of pandemic broke out people are in a hurry to sell their stakes only buy them back at a much higher price, we should not like a domino who follows every movement.

It will soon be gone and we will be talking about 12850 as the new resistance.

Actually we can't blame newbies to shake up wince sometimes those fuds from random topic is convincing and if they afraid to lose more or cannot get a profit if they didn't dump at the moment the fud scattered. And for this things we need really a good educational topic about how trading actually works and how to define fud to reality, although its hard to find out but still there are indicators and certain articles that can help us for this things for our daily trades.

I think the best case we could have for this is to recheck what happened afterwards, which shows that bitcoin moved beyond $11.8k once again, so I assume it can't be that much of a big gap, the price didn't fall that far down, didn't went up that much, it is still around the same levels without too much of a trouble.

So, that tells me that it should not really matter all that much if the price went down or not, it would definitely change eventually but that doesn't mean that it will because of some gap, gaps always happen in bitcoin and they are always there but since we are talking about 5-10% changes daily sometimes (the high volatile days) those gaps suddenly become very worthless and useless. That is why I do not care about the current prices, I usually care what it could be in the future if the price suddenly changes a lot.

The thing is that people do not buy and sell because there is a bitcointalk topic about a subject, people buy and sell and that is why there is a bitcointalk topic about that subject. You do not understand why people open topics, when people talk about "this will happen" that is usually for the future, but when there is a gap, that gap is basically what happened because that gap was there, the gap didn't happen because there was a topic about it here.

However since there is a topic about it here, it could attract more attention towards itself. Those are very different reasons. Hopefully the gap is now gone and the resistance is higher right now, so I would assume the price could not go up easily anymore, sure it won't go down as easy neither so I think everything is balanced now.

those who buy/sell bitcoin because of some random topic on bitcointalk aren't going to be left with any bitcoin/money in a couple of weeks. and at this point the market has already shaken out majority of these weak hand newbies already.

Selling would be the unusual part, everything appears positive now.   The crowd of popular opinion is generally quite predictable in being cheerleaders and then also too gloomy on the lows when price is better 'value'.    Was this supposed to be a ceiling, Im not sure its stopped or just hesitant as BTC often is.   Its not even pulling back properly, the range here is much reduced over previously.



Lows shown here are weekly average but just today the lows have been 2 day average.

No one did even expect for the price hits up on this level on where OP predicted. Selling it off and secure profits because of tendency of price crash of 3k?

Its hard to believe to go back into those numbers but who knows if this one hits up the spot.It already hits up the initial possible peak price of this year and might be the
best time to sell off.

but somewhat the price is tanking into these levels atm.

So how many sold because of this prediction? I at least guess op?

all possibilities can happen dicrypto, not a taboo and impossible thing to happen. any time there will quickly be a change.
the current trend is indeed quite good and it is very clear that the movement towards the increase continues.

However, optimism for a continuous increase could be missed because there is still a long time to go and the situation could change towards a decline which is still possible. No need to worry about the decline because bitcoin will quickly make corrections to return to the desired direction.

This is the time crypto starts to move excitedly to continue to increase, all because bitcoin continues to improve and has an impact on other altcoins as well. do not hesitate to invest in crypto at this time on all fronts there will be an upward movement. but don't invest in new tokens.

It's much better to keep small step upwards from time to time.

Not sure if this will continue to breakout and breach that value, but this positive trends keeps investors to see the potentials.

Just stay away from another possibilities of Ponzi and all those related business to scam people, remember that this scammers are always riding
with what the sentiments, and they keep bringing ideas to where uneducated investors are easily being victimized.

If you write down these movements not in dollars but in percentages, you will see that these are small things (compared to the usual large movements). And the movement to 7k will also not be fatal or record-breaking if you look at it as a percentage.

i believe 7k is possible just from the belief of volatility over bullish or bearish traits, more then anything I think volatility is a bull market and we are heading towards greater price extremes in all markets from instability and transition in the basis of global reserve system.   This makes many alternatives to plain dollar  debt based asset and trade facilitated international exchange and in that transition we may get crypto, gold, commodities and alternate FIAT standards.   That makes us bullish within a new paradigm but also with greater uncertainty then we've probably had for the duration of my life time.    Obviously thats big picture and whats going to happen right now or even this year can be quite different and confined to a simple trend upwards, however I dont presently see that.  I see possible breakout and confirmation required before higher prices, to go especially higher requires a ladder of regular trends.   We arent especially higher, we're repeating the last year which is impressive recovery of course.

As long as the market is breaking the resistance we could reach your prediction but it is hard to expect that it will breach all the resistance in the coming months, we might trade at this price range for a while before breaking another resistance and it might even take months, but these gradual movements is better than a big rally and a crash after that. We have a sell off today and lets see how it holds the support.

This is a clear vision in the short term, but in a greater time frame, I think that we could be even in a small correction but with a view to aiming high, the volume seen in the market is considerable, according to how everything is going, it is a good time to be in Long. My personal forecast is that it can hit $ 15k at any time, at least touching that limit.

Yes, we have another pull back once we hit $11,800. Then move down to $11,200 then goes back momentarily to 11,400 and now it the current price. I would tend to agree that $7k is not going to happen as we have build enough momentum for a bullish signal. So I'm expecting that this pullback and eventual bounce to $12k-$13k, let's wait-and-see.

I agree that in this moment it's better to be conservative than to have exaggerated expectations. We've seen so many times recently Bitcoin price pulling back under 10000$ in short period of time so we can't say how is this going to end now. Although at the moment price is heading towards 12000$ we should be careful with investment so I would wait for a while before making any conclusions and taking a big risk.

Was this research done about a crypto? I think that liquidity here is very low (we have seen many examples of this) and with a volume of $ 90 million it is very easy to move the price not by 1 but by 10 percent or more. But this will be a short-term move.

I can understand that it could potentially happen if people could put enough money into it, however I believe even whales couldn't handle something like this.

There was a study from crabby that showed that you need about 90 million dollars cash injected into buy orders extra so that the price would go up 1% and that means if you want to reach another 10% that is another billion dollars and I do not think that whales have a billion dollars in fiat to get in and change the market all that easily. Sure they have some power, but this is not stock market, this is not forex, this is crypto which is decentralized and unregulated most of the time, and that means I do not think there would be some sort of increase in the price that easily and nobody would put in that much money.

So it took almost 2 months for OP's call (or rather, over 1 month late to reach his 11795) to take shape but it does look like it could be happening after all? Or not? I actually don't see the pullback to 7k happening anymore now as that ascent isn't as steep as it should have been. If there's a pullback, it may take 13k to trigger now.

It still marvels me, how most of this prediction are always accurate irrespective of its price movement not minding if  it's predicting towards a downtrend or uptrend. Sometimes it gets me all excited that I stick to relying on them for my investment choices. I remember reading a thread on the altcoin board predicting ethereum to be trading around $350 in or before August back when ethereum was around $233. I followed that advice and today my portfolio is in profit on regards to that investment.

Back on topic, since the OP had his prediction set on the whales manipulating the market and it played out as he predicted, I think we just have to stick to that although no one actually knows  exactly what's going on maybe in the coming weeks we might get some answers on what actually is the motivation behind the price movement whether it's just the market reaction or whales manipulation.

I did not checked the price when I woke up today. Suddenly while browsing on facebook I saw my friends post and it is all about the price of bitcoin. Right after that yes it is really true that bitcoin is more than $11.5K. Well it is another surprising day for me because bitcoin price keeps going up even though there are small price drops. I have also notice that ETH price is good as well as some alts but not all. I am not good at reading charts but I am hoping it will not fall. I have read some posts in this thread that it will not reach straight $12K from $6K.

Feel like I should pay more attention to this topic since it was a fair call.   I still think its the market not whales, just like we attribute human emotions to animals a bit too often we are also envisioning the market as if it were a person with selective ideas and objectives when its just natural progression and its a mass or herd movement in sentiment change not a type of person or select group even.
   The gradient from A to B was less steep then drawn, it took longer to reach which would be correct and places us closer to near August where it happened.   With a trend, the more points it touches the likely more accurate it is. We're towards the top of this range with the peak 11440 happening fairly recently yesterday, 11828 is the highest weekly bar close I see in this rough range looking back years but mostly its around 11500 if prior volume is relevant right now.

Better to have conservative estimates rather than be surprised on what's coming.
So as a trader/investor you can have your own contingencies and be prepared with what may happen to your funds.
Of course, you need to secure your investments especially that we are still in crisis and losing money is the last thing we want to have.
But, it has been a year that we experienced this price level, and so crypto users are happy for what we are experiencing right now.
Another day, another hope for crypto!

The price broke through and returned from the 10k level so many times that on place of the whales (if there are any) I would sharply raise the price (above 12k) or sharply lower it (below 7k) this time in order for lovers to make money on the "waves" of volatility this time fell into a trap 

I'm leaning towards $11,500 before we can see a pull back, we have broken the latest highest high for this year at the price is above $11,300 already. And if goes to $11,500, then probably another huge dump of 20%-30% before moving forward to $12k-$15k. That is typical of the market cycles and I would say that this pull backs are really that good in the long run because more hands are going to enter if we see the price below $10k again.

Expect the unexpected yet market has always been like this on where it do wreck hopes of anybody on least time we do unexpect.Im already readying up myself on possible dump wayback on 9k.

Im not really that too negative but its better rather than to hope that much market is way too unpredictable. 11,700 isnt really that far off since the price is already playing around 11,300+ at the moment and reaching

$300-400 wont really be that too long but who knows on on what would happen yet huge rejection might or might not happen and able to break it out and proceed to 12k price.

I am more positive to see $9,000 before $11,700 - $12,000. Maybe we can get more below but this can be happen with again, a huge red candle wicks.
Since July 28, 2020, bitcoin's price still on sideways $10,000+ - $11,100+, this is much better as long as we don't fall again below $9,000 but there are still huge dump effect once we fall again that area, just my 2 cents.
Small pullbacks will be healthy for Bitcoin, let's hope we will not experience a huge wicks, green or red candle wicks.

A quick drop back to test the lows is what I expect but at present its not expected at all which would make it quite effective in terms of shock value.   I dont think we get as high as 11.7k and if we do then its a bigger achievement then the market has achieved so far.   I'd have to counter that we got as high as 11.7k then we have further business at that level, it will have beaten this range of some months which then would likely prove as support after we exceed it.   Many would like to rebuy after losing out on this opportunity to buy here, at present people will still be asleep so getting higher will trigger a bullish question that markets will take some months to sort not the quick rejection idea.   I think quick rejection is more like 10.5k top then we fail to beat that and so form great disappointment once again.
   10491 is the peak for 2020, so not beating that is bearish but if go much higher its a new question and likely new volume form buyers hoping it will continue, creates interest by itself.

Many though that they might won't see the $10k price hit up including me but suddenly things change when market move faster for the past couple of days so provably these things can possibly gotten once this hype will still occur since great things will come once all things is set and the phase will get back to normal.

i don't see the market hitting $12k+ only to go straight back to the $6000s. bull markets are not ordinarily so forgiving to sellers.

maybe you'll get a retest of $10k---that would be logical. the market will want to see it confirmed as support on the way up. i'm pretty confident that's the lowest you'll see after a move like that though.

if we could reach $12k in this short time there will only be a weak hand shakeout to $11.5 or something like that before the FOMO kicks in and the rally officially starts without anything stopping it.

the behavior you see (rise then fall the same amount) is because we have been always below a resistance line (that is $10k) otherwise breaking it is THE signal to buy non-stop, there won't be any big drops anymore for a long time.

Looks like this scenario could still play out, I confess I considered this one to be invalid a bit too early. With today's move and the RSI reaching a new high, my point (B) (still in a downtrend) could reach around $12k, it is very convenient there is this gap on the exchange market.
After this price there should be a dump at least to $8.5k and my most preferred target is around $6.5k. At that price one should consider to invest big.
My opinion.

But but...Elliott waves...


I have a feeling you're going to move your B point a lot, from May to June to July till December 2140


All wannabe traders have that fetish for numbers and trends they try to see in the previous evolutions.
He's the perfect example that can draw 10 of those with 10 theories on the same interval, come with 10 prices ranges and get all of them wrong 

It's a tiny daily gap from a year ago. It's not meaningful S/R at this point. If the market goes there, I would consider it coincidental to the gap itself and I would expect a bull market to continue above it regardless.

People take the gap fill theory way too literally. Common gaps get filled all the time because they happen all the time. Breakaway, runaway, and exhaustion gaps often don't get filled and once enough time passes, they lose their importance as S/R levels.

Gaps are really dangerous to ignore especially on the very week. If in the next week, a previous week gap might not be too volatile because it would likely follow a gradual correction of the said week.

What I do about gap is to be very careful that week by trading short if it is not in the direction of the gap closure.

well you have been screaming $3.1k price for a long time now and each time price only keeps going up. at this point it is starting to look like you have got a fetish for that arbitrary number because none of the things you have said so far in your numerous topics made any sense.
your view of the market, the whales and manipulation are extremely exaggerated at best.

right now the market is in the hands of day traders and price will neither move up nor down. any whale that goes against this sideways action will only lose money just like many who have already lost their money expecting weird things out of the price.

Why was the resistance level at 9800 to 10300 which the price failed to break last time been ignored? Once this barrier was broken the previous time, we saw a rebound to the level of $ 8,000, but a quick return, which means that we may need more time to break this barrier.

The rest of the analyzes make sense, but I think we will stay at $ 9,600 for several days.

Even though most gaps usually fill, you need to realise some of them take a very long time to fill. Basically I have kept the CME gaps in mind when I am looking to take profit on a trade but I never take a trade just based on the fact that a gap needs to fill.

Imagine taking a long at $11500 because you assumed it would go to $11795 and you ended up having price go to the low $3K's. Is it worth it going against you that much just gain about $300? No.

Hence don't take these gap traders too seriously. Sure they will eventually fill but the question is when?

Any break above 10300 now would seem to indicate a break upwards, that could lead to this higher price but I dont know it has to fall especially harshly after that.    I always attribute moves to the market itself not whales, the most some rich traders could do on leverage is topple a boulder already standing atop a hillside. If its setup to fall then its going to happen or at the least be tested, its a natural process so waves back and forth will dislodge most positions.   I think the test down is yet to come but theres no sign yet.

This reminds me of an idea from xxxx123abcxxxx:


As I said in his thread, it would be quite a mind fuck and would really confuse the market. It could be one route to achieving maximum pain. However, Bitfinex shorts continue to fall and are quite low already as longs continue to rise. Bitmex interest rates also indicate bears are not keen on shorting. That suggests to me the direction of maximum pain is actually downward from here, keeping $10.5K intact.

Sentiment analysis is not exactly a science though.

I'd already considered a move to just short of $12K as more than possible, and in my mind the target of a breakout as is the next approximate level of resistance, as some other analysts have also identified. The fact that there is a futures gap up there does make a lot more sense for prices to reach this level. I'm grateful you made me look at the CME chart as there is a double bullish cross-over (including golden cross) of the 50, 100 & 200 Day MAs around $8,500. I also think it's possible price could move down to these levels as a bull trap for spot/leverage traders, before futures traders buy up this golden cross and volume point of control support level.



That said, I don't see any reason why prices would then fall back down to the $5-7K region or lower. Of course they could, anything could happen; global panic could continue, the stock markets could have a volitle crash again after a double top, many things could happen, the future is unknown. But in my mind, breaking through $10.5K to $12K level, would mean somewhere between $8-10.5K would be more likely to act as support, as there would be a lot of support waiting for the price at these levels given a successful breakout upwards.

That was difficult to speculate. And I'm afraid that many usual traders and investors will fall into their traps. The Zigzag line tells us that dumps will certainly be followed with pumps in a short while but I'm not sure if all of us here had already noticed that trend.

What I have observed now is that it takes more time to recover and reach another peak, and quite that different as it dumps. The $10k resistance that we've been waiting for is already broke but the problem is that the market can't able to sustain that high, instead it drops back again. Well, that whales have something to do in order to catch their prey and that they'll do now is quite effective and beneficial to them but too sad that small market players and newcomers had suffered such (expected) losses.

Holders will not be impacted as long as they hold you are right about this, I was specifically talking about traders who work with stop losses all the time (both bears and bulls), thanks for adding this precision even though, some bulls who are not traders will lose money in this scenario because we know how it works, you buy expecting Bitcoin price to pump, but there is a crash and lots of them will sell after seeing so many red candles. Emotions and money often do not fit well together.

Short term and medium term traders will be wrecked, but I'm not sure either of those are mutually exclusive to bulls or bears.

I'm probably always short/medium bear and very long term very bull, and neither of those scenarios wreck me, both actually benefit me since I'm always buying in any of that range!

Alternative thread title: Whales boost long-term users, dump out speculators?

What if the whales decide to wreck both bears and bulls in the next coming weeks?


At the time of this post, Bitcoin is trading a bit above $9700.





Now we are well aware of the big resistance at $10500, placing a short with a stop loss at $10600 sounds too easy, too obvious?

Whales could destroy all those bears and liquidate all these stop losses.


Then everyone would turn bullish because the resistance has been officially broken. Whales now can destroy these bulls, go to $11795 area to fill the gap on the future exchange.


Coincidentally, our Fibonacci gives us $11765 (Fib 100) since the last $8600ish bottom   Would be amazing if this happens. This way, the whales ruin both bears and bulls. Our lovely downtrend is back from $11.7k to go below $7000 for a first take profit target (that would be around $6700).






The move from $11.7k to below $9.5k needs to be quick, similar to June 2019 when we touched $13.8k then dropped very fast from there (gravestone doji).





A quick drop is necessary so the monthly candle of June 2020 doesn't close above $9.7k, this is necessary to stay in the bearish triangle that started since December 2017.

Best way to benefit from such possible move is to wait for $11600 and short the market from there, with a tight stop loss above $11.8k.


Wait and see  





tl;dr

Whales troll the market, pump to $11.7k then dump with a possible crash to $3.1k area.

A more boring version is we reached our top for 2020 already and Bitcoin will not break the $10.5k resistance. More boring but also more expected at this stage.