Topic: A neophyte is asking 4 questions (?) about bitcoin bull market (Read 155 times)

The whole HODL philosophy comes from the idea of believing in Bitcoin's long-term value. Even when folks anticipate a bull market, they're looking for a positive affirmation of their belief. However, anticipation doesnt necessarily mean action; some HODL because they truly believe Bitcoin's value will rise even higher in the long run.

If the majority sells off a big chunk of their Bitcoin during a bull market, the supply on exchanges increases. Now, you see, this can cause the price to drop because of the fundamental law of supply & demand. More available supply can mean decreased demand, leading to price drops.

Though, if only a few folks sell a tiny bit, it wont significantly affect the market. The available supply doesnt change much, and so the demand stays relatively stable.

A major sell-off could potentially decrease prices, while minor sell-offs might not cause any major shakes in the market. The dance between supply & demand really determines the rhythm of the market!

Because after every successful four years halving has taken place comes in bullrun and those that had hodl their investment to this period will benefit the rise of the market till a new all time high is successfully achieved before they can release, yet after that, they can still target another dip to invest and still hodl again and the process continue like that.


As you can see, the market price is targeted base on the demand and supply rate, if eventually everyone is releasing their coins after the bullrun, it means the market is likely to come down and people will begin to sell at lower rate as the demand decreases and supply is high, this is when the bear trend set in sometime after the bullrun for new investors to come in.


It's not possible, it's because the demand is high and people are buying that makes the market price rises, in bitcoin, you can't do without a volatile market, the demand and supply varies and are what determines the market price, hodl or selling point.

1. Why do most people anticipate for the bull market when they clearly encourage HODL?
The coming halving is something that most anticipate can trigger some type of a bull run and then we also have the approval of a BTC-ETF as a big factor. And you can never experience the benefits of a bull run when you are just holding an empty plastic bag.

2. What happens when majority of the bitcoin holders sells a larger portion of their bitcoin during this bull market?
That may never happen that way unless there is a group that will coordinate and influence the holders to let go of their possession...but of course during bull run many can be tempted to cash-out and in this case we have the law of supply and demand to balance things out.

3. What happens when only few chooses to sell little portion of their bitcoin?
When more people would choose not to sell then it would create more pressure on Bitcoin to go up in price especially if there is a big demand from buyers. Again, this may never happen that way as the Bitcoin market is already large and global.

4. And lastly, how will question 2 and 3 reflect on the market?
I would say it again...this is a matter of supply and demand just like any assets on the market.

Asking questions should never be a matter of shame. We are all human, we all make mistakes. The enquiry for knowledge should be always seen as a positive thing, rather than a negative thing. Nobody knows everything.


1. Because the value of Bitcoin goes up as more people adopt it. 1 BTC is worth 10 000 pizzas soon.
2. The people who wished for cheap Bitcoin are going to buy cheap Bitcoin. Price eventually will recover. The sellers miss out on value profit.
3. They still lose.
4. The sudden volatility will spook a lot of newbie investors into selling and the veteran investors will be prepared to buy cheap Bitcoin.

buying the dip during the bear... is common sense. and then hoard when the bull begins until the price moves to a new ATH of profit to then sell at a nice profit is also common sense
if you are buying high selling low. you are losing. so buy low, sell high

when prices reach new highs and lots of sellers sell, it slows down the speed to super highs. and then corrects and starts to bring the price down
(there was a reason bitcoin stopped at $70k in 2021)

not very much % of coins in circulation are the coins on exchange orders. you would be surprised how little the market orderbook represents the total circulation


trying to guess markets based on holders is a flawed methodology(not much circulation is in exchanges). what you should look into is how many people are willing to buy at prices X or Y. if no one on planet wants to buy bitcoin at $100k .. bitcoin wont reach $100k no matter how much or little units of btc is offered

looking at the world efficiency scale of mining:
some countries can mine for $20k meaning profit to mine and sell instantly
some countries can mine for $150k meaning no profit to mine.. so cheaper to just market buy and hold

if there are countries where mining can cost upto $150k then they would be the parts of the world willing to pay upto ~$145k in a high demand scenario

No one in Bitcoin community likes to talk about selling Bitcoin, because it's viewed as betraying Bitcoin. There's also an idea that we won't need to sell our coins and just buy things directly with them, but the problem with such volatile prices is that even if we could buy cars and houses with BTC, it's still better to sell BTC at the peak of the bull market, even if you'd have to pay taxes, because the price peaks last only mere days or hours.


These questions only look at the supply side, while ignoring the demand side. It's entirely possible to have massive selling of coins and the price would still go up because the demand is so huge, and the opposite is also possible - holders could refuse to sell and the price would still crash if no one wants to buy.

1. To see “imaginary” figures for increasing their capital - this pleases their greed vanity. It’s always nice to see that your expectations and predictions have come true, but many doubt that the bullmarket will happen. Some holders can sell part of holding bitcoin.
2. What happens is that bitcoins are bought by newcomers who first learned (or knew before, but only now decided to buy) about BTC and, driven by their greed, buy at high prices.
3. If believe the law of supply and demand, then the price of bitcoin rises even more.
4. Nobody will give you the exact answer. The cryptomarket is quite unpredictable and it is impossible to predict with certainty the consequences of certain events.

I read this to say 29% of all btc being held would not effect the market much if it was sold off.

I think if 29% of held coins were sold off the market would tank bigly.

that is 6 million coins it is a huge amount of coins.

So they can sell lots of coins and buy the dip a couple of years after.

What do you think it happens? Price declines.

If a few people sell at the same time, then it will cause price decline as well. If a few people sell in different time periods, then it mostly goes unnoticed. Generally, when there is suddenly lots of offers to sell bitcoin, there is intense competition which means the price drops.

Most anticipate a bullrun, possibly going as high as $100k per unit of bitcoin.

The price stops rising and many times starts going down. This will likely create a domino effect where other holders panic and start selling too.

Very little happens to the market.

P.S, you should note that it's not the umber of holders that sell which matters, but their holdings. So if many small and medium investors choose to liquidate but their overall holding is not up to 30% of the total supply, it will not affect the price much.

To be frank with you, some investors have viewed bitcoin more as an investment tool with great ROI. And they best way to get the maximum ROI is through holding and that’s why it is advisable to hold. Then the reason why the bull run is much more anticipated is because it is the Time where bitcoin gets to its highest price and holders sell off for profits. So this period is the market period when you are holding and definitely many will anticipate and also speculate how much they will earn in return


Then we heard back to the bear market. When there is a heavy sell the supply out ways the demand and this way the price begins to drop and this is the period we called bearish period.

Then the demand becomes very high and the price of bitcoin continues to grow higher until they start to sell again. Holding onto bitcoin brings scarcity and you know scarcity brings high value to that assets. Also not selling or buying much can also bring about reduced volatility just like we have now. There is no significant movement of the price.



Just as I explained each one, when there is massive sale we face bearish period because of high supply and when there is with holding we face a reduced volatility rates as the market swings both ways gently without any heavy price movement

You are encourage to HODL and buy during bear market, and in the bull run, you have the options to sell some of your stash and make profits.

Then every one has equal opportunity to buy those bitcoin that are put into the sell button. So it goes back to the ecosystem once again and every one competes for it.

If only few chooses to sell then it will make bitcoin more limited to everyone, and with that the basic economic law of supply and demand will take over. If there is huge demand and supply is limited = the price of bitcoin goes up.

It will still be based how the market will react. But during bull run, the price is anticipated to reach a new all time high. And in next year after the block halving, and in 2025, it is predicted that the price will hit 6 digits.

As a neophyte to the Bitcoin community, asking questions shouldn't be a thing to be shy of.

I have come across series of articles/post, and I have noticed how HODL have been genuinely encouraged. The bull market which is also talked about in most articles: happens to be a condition of the financial market where there is certainty that the price of Bitcoin and others might be positive.

My question goes to the bitcoin holders and those who have gained experience.

1. Why do most people anticipate for the bull market when they clearly encourage HODL ?.
2. What happens when majority of the bitcoin holders sells a larger portion of their bitcoin during this bull market?.
3. What happens when only few chooses to sell little portion of their bitcoin ?.
4. And lastly, how will question 2 and 3 reflect on the market ?.

If you find the questions too much, please do well to answer the ones you know. I would love to read lots of opinion.