Topic: A new and improved BTC difficulty thread inclusive of every coin no censorship. (Read 487 times)

Updates.. we are now at block

1725 and down  4.3% for BTC about 78 block down

here is a reason other than obvious China crackdown

"Bulk Used Antminer S17 Lot for Sale Immediately
 
1798 units of various S17 model miners freshly repaired by Bitmain are available right now for purchase. They are under warranty by Bitmain for 30 days from the date of shipping. 

The entire lot must be purchased. The price is $40/TH, not including shipping.
 
Total of 124,943TH/s for $4,997,720.00.
 
Batches like this don't come around often. Secure this batch before it's gone!
 
~ Scott"   Note part of a email pitch to buy gear

124 ph off line is about  1/10 of 1% as the network is around 124-135eh

yet we are down 4.3% not .1%

If bitmain has to shut down farms why not list more then the list above?
If it possible they are short repair parts and have a lot of broken gear they can not fix.

We know
s11
s15
s17
s17+
s17e
s17pro
s19pro
t15
t17
t17e
t17+
t19

all use custom psu's

maybe just maybe even Bitmain can't get parts for the psu's it would be funny

oh at 40 bucks th

 100th is 4000 usd
100 th makes 23.30 a day it burns around 84kwatts so 5 cent power is 4.20

23.30-4.20 = 19.10 profit

4000/19.10 = 209 day payoff.


lastly eth hash is 590th up from June 1 584th still off alltime  peak  on may 20 of 643 th

why did eth pick up while btc dropped.

simple in both cases the gear exists

and eth make far more money per watt if you own the gear.

lastly I suspect repair of gpus is more robust than repair of asics at this moment in Time.

nice drop of 15.9%

will help make up for terrible prices for btc.

well I Gave this thread a rest.

but



a lot has happened in the last 25 days

a diff drop of 13%
a huge jump of 20% +
and now a drop pushing 16% is due in 5 or 6 days

of course price dropped to 29k and is back to 36K

but  the Real concern is eth hashrate
it is far more stable and upwards even though it dropped from 4.1k to 1.9k and is back to 2.3k in price

As of now we are 240 blocks off pace. That is about a -12% drop.

I am guessing  we may only end up dropping 10% and around 200 blocks off pace.

Crypto Mining Forum North America hosted by Bitmain April 22
Very interesting take on the future of mining.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1wiDJr-e-Y

https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
Hashrate appear to recover and get back online but we probably enjoy a negatif diff of -3% or -5% for the next adjustment
then up again.

well bitmain has decided to confirm its godlike asic eth miner.

so it does 3300 mh
it uses 2800 watts

compared to the s19pro it crushes it

as

3300 watts doing 110th in btc is far far far less then bitmains e9

so they will set it for a long preorder and use the cash for months before they release the gear.

this will in turn get innosilicon to maybe send out some of its gear for eth.

How long does it continue?

Great question.  Next jump is in about 8 days


the bold line shows how many blocks we are off pace. 226 right now.

it was as high as 242.  So to go to 226 means pace is picking up.

Just follow it and if it drifts down over next 7-8 days to 350 or so it means power issues still exist which means cloud mines in china are forced to decide what to do due to lack of power.

By the way @phillip, sorry if this has already been asked or addressed, but I just have been attempting to consider the drop in hashrate from a regular "joe blow" miner's perspective and since I am not one of those, I would like to ask such considerable drops in hashrate would be quite wonderful for miners such as yourself who have continued to plod away with their mining, and you had already figured out some decently profitable ways to continue to plod away whether mining shitcoins or continuing to have some of your set up in BTC, and even the BTC portion becomes more profitable (despite the recent price drop) because so many miners go off line or whatever, and you continue to plod away with your varying systems and ongoing assessments regarding which coins are the most profitable in terms of mostly accumulating BTC (paying your bills, too).

And, for someone like you, you might not give any shits about the cause of the drop (except maybe merely attempting to anticipate how long it might last, how low it might go, and anticipating other miner reactions from such sudden drops in BTC hashrate).

Again, hopefully these questions make sense.

Yeah I am not much of a BTC max guy.

The brilliance of it all to me is simply pow done via turning power into coins.

Knowing human nature it will result in multiple coins burning power into coins.

To think it is only BTC is a meh idea as it simply is not.

To fight those that want and or believe it is only BTC and nothing else is and was wrong on my part.

I mine.
I turn power into coins.
My bias is BTC but I hold and mine many coins.

Octopus
ETH
KAPOW
LTC/DOGE
BCH
BTC

Every coins above I mine at a  profit so I hedge it all into BTC as much as I can.

I am no more complex than that with my mining.

I also buy gear on PayPal six months to pay zero interest
I sell gear for btc ltc or doge or eth every once in a while.

To say I am a miner first and a reseller second may be wrong some years and right other years. BUT I look to juggle all of it as best I can.

I was angry when I posted that and added a little drama. But I was referring specifically to mining,
which is more about the algorithm and the hardware used to mine it. There's technically nothing
about a sha2d miner that limits it to BTC only. It doesn't make sense to me to limit mining discussion
on that basis. It seems like a relic of the days when there were only a few coins.

Do one will  be deleted other than fuck you blow  bitch style comments or death threats or threats of physical harm.

If a post does do the above I will quote it archive it then delete it.

If a scammor spammer posts I will do same.

I decided a long time ago that I do like pow coins with well backed asics.

As it is why I mine.

I think bitcointalk is suffering for being too old in the minds of many.

I HEAR a lot of boomer type remarks this shows that many think of bitcointalk as an oldie like a boomer.

I do not begrudge anyone that wants to willfully exclude all mining of coins other than btc. Their choice  not mine.

Seems like a wee bit of an exaggeration to be suggesting that BTC threads need to allow the discussion of shitcoins merely because they might somehow relate to BTC in some kind of theoretical way.  

Seems to me that if threads are meant to be about BTC, and in the BTC section, then it tends to be quite problematic to allow those threads to devolve into discussions about mining various shitcoins, even if there might be some abilities to make tangential claims that such shitcoin discussions somehow relate to BTC..

In other words, there is a tendency for a devolution of topics when talking about shitcoins within bitcoin threads, whether talking about mining or referring to other shitcoin topics and trying to make some kind of bitcoin-related claim (that may or may not end up being a legitimate relatedness - still problematic in the devolution of topics sense) or even sometimes the bringing up of such shitcoin related discussions to derail the bitcoin thread.  Yes, it is true that shitcoiners will frequently go to bitcoin threads to bring up their non-relevant topic in order to get attention to their matter because they are having difficulties getting attention in other threads (attraction to having a bigger audience).

I tend to NOT follow very many altcoin threads, but I do agree that over time, Phillip has shown himself to have a decent number of good ideas on a variety of topics and largely reasonable ways of presenting his ideas even though I may often disagree with various points that he makes and feel like I am kind of trolling him from time to time too (and maybe sometimes I might misunderstand some of his points, so it can take a wee bit of back and forth to sort things out), so I am glad that he created this thread, and sure maybe there is some preference to keep this thread as self-moderated (like he did), and I trust him to be relatively light on the deleting of posts, as he stated in OP...

In regards to some of the technicalities of mining or even some of Phillips previously deleted posts in other threads, I don't claim to follow some of those matters, and surely I acknowledge that I might say some pretty stupid-stuff from time to time, but I do watch a few technical threads and I do attempt to glean some better understandings, but as each of us realize there are ONLY so many hours in the day in terms of whether the gist of a topic is presented in a way that might be understandable to a broader audience, beyond the more technically inclined folks.

This morning

eth pays $.1383 per mh

btc pays $0.3763 per th

eth reached an all Time  high in hash rate yesterday.  541,356 gh or. 5,413,560 million nvidia 3080's or 200,502 Linzhi asics

btc is down at 135.983 eh or 1.223 million s19 pros

https://etherscan.io/chart/hashrate I got eth number from here

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer?utm_campaign=dcomnav_explorer I go btc number from here.


now the  s19pro power use is 3300 watts

the Linzhi power use is 3300 watts

they are supposed to be the best gear for btc and eth for power efficiency .

1,223,000/200,502 = 6.09 x 1 factor in power use.

ie the BTC network if it were all s19pros uses 6.09 the power the Eth network uses if it were all Linzhi asics.

some interesting things to take from here are

110 x .3763 = 41.393 pre power earnings for BTC

2700 x .1383 = 373.41 pre power earnings for ETH
 
373.41/41.393 = 9.021 x 1  factor   so right now on a daily basis using 1/6 the power of the BTC network eth is earning

9.021/6.09 = 1.48  x 1 the $$ value

I think this really needs watching when the btc difficulty adjusts it should help the gap a bit but this is a real issue.

well eth diff and hashrate has maintained 98.3% of  its levels

 539 dropped to 530
https://etherscan.io/chart/hashrate

check April 12 a 539 and April 20 a 530


while btc went from 171 on April 12 to  144 on April 19

https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_network_hash_rate


A drop of almost 20%

It reflects a power shortage in China and faced with the choice of shutting down

btc which makes  40 bucks for 3300 watts
eth which makes 324 bucks for 3300 watts

more btc gets shut down.

The interesting things are how long does the power  short fall exist and does a long term choice of mining eth over btc alter this bull run.

Looks like a miner needs to be able to jump around and have

LTC/DOGE  asic mining gear
SHA asic  mining gear
GPU mining gear.
ETH asic mining gear.

To be able to adjust.

Interesting to think that being a nimble generalist is best for today.

Don't know if rainy season in China will save the days for those farms.
They probably struggle to relocate ASAP. Look like they holding assets for now.
Market didn't surge with gears for sales.

BTC bull run with ASIC shortage combined with a diff drop it's a wet dream for a miner.
Congrats for those who survived the long bear market and invested while cheap.

Never a boring day in crypto ...

Maximalist need to pop out of their bubble.
Lot's it's happening outside BTC.

New day.  More stats



Huge drop in BTC hash rate is still there.



look below the payouts for various key high hash rate coins




Okay due to multiple efforts of censorship from Bitcointalk btc mining section along with viabtc leaving out doge profits in the list above the full scope of why  btc has suffered bigly in hashrate is hidden everywhere but this thread.

A) China has reduced available power = Fact

So if you are in China and have excess gear (due to your ability of building it cheaply) or if you took a shot and purchased cheap gear last summer in big amounts. Hoping to make a profit if coins went up.

You certainly scored.  Now China restricts power.  What do you turn off.  You turn off the lowest profit making gear. = BTC

So BTC is still the lowest money maker of the gear on viabtc per watt.

And Eth is still the highest money maker of the gear on viabtc per watt


and lastly LTC/DOGE does very well but viabtc does not show the Doge profits.  Right now Doge makes 3x Ltc.

so ltc is 5.81 and doge is 17.43 or 23.24 for 1500 watts about 51.28 for 3300 watts


So  for 3300 watts

BTC>>>>>>   Makes $ 39.424
BCH>>>>>>.  Makes $ 42.977
BHA>>>>>>.  Makes $ 37.796
BSV>>>>>>.  Makes $ 42.471
LTC/Doge>>>. Makes $ 51.119
ETH>>>>>>> Makes $300.78

and check diff/hash charts which of the above do you think has dropped over 25%

which do you think dropped under 5%

Just woke up and Doge is pushing 43 cents.

Soo once again you own a huge cloud op
you build all kinds of asic miners on the cheap.

you need 10000 ltc/doge miners to meet the cloud's contracts but you own 15,000 since you make them cheaply

you need 10000 btc or bch miners to meet the cloud's contracts but you own 15,000 since you make them so cheaply


you need 10000 eth miners to meet the cloud's contracts but you own 15000 since you make them so cheaply




China has shorted you power. 

If you run
10000 ltc/doge
10000 btc+bch
10000 eth

which meets the contracts you do not have the power

but turn off some of the btc+bch miners

and add eth or even ltc/doge now that doge is godlike.

and exchange the excess back to btc you make enough btc to cover the contract and you save power.

last I looked
3300 watt s19pro  makes $39.59 at btc
3300 watt s19pro  makes $42.19 at bch
3300 watt linzhi.   makes $284.85 at eth
3300 watts L3+.  makes  $13.44 LTC and $41.44 at doge a total of $54.88 a day


the first choice is turn off 7 s19pros  and turn on 1 extra eth miner. you save 3300 x 6 = 19800 watts.

now bitmain would be nuts not to juggle the gear
they are also nuts to sell much gear to people right now
there is more profit in their cloud.

How long does this last  I have zero idea.

 But when BTC has the 25% drop locked in.
 If bitmain did what I said they may fire up some btc gear since it will make 1.25 btc vs 1.0 btc for a jump.
 I am very interested to see the next jump and how much will come back on line.


 

Looking at,
https://fork.lol/pow/retarget

Seems pretty crazy that we got almost another 20 days before a diff retarget and we will see a -40% difficulty reduction.

I remember back after BCH was launched and it was more profitable to mine because BTC had a longer retarget and many miners just switched to BCH. I think it was maybe twice or triple as profitable to mine BCH as BTC. People assumed BTC would die back then since miners would go mine the profitable chain however they still were dedicated to BTC.

So it is true that many miners switch back and forth however the true believers of BTC will never abandon the real coin for profit.

Reading this makes me sad, honestly, this is a BTC-related question, I hate to see it asked in the altcoin section.

To answer your question, first of all, the coal mine explosion in China (Xinjiang ) is real, pools reported an average of 25-30% drop in their reported hashrate right after the explosion, the hashrate drop happened to ALL sha256 coins, along with BCH price going up against BTC and what seemed like a larger drop in BCH hashrate compared to BTC percentage-wise, mining BCH was about 25% or more profitable than mining BTC.

More hash power was migrating from BTC which has already lost enough hashrate to other more profitable "back then" coins, which contributed more to the hashrate drop in BTC, but the migrating has a small impact compared to the mine explosion, why do I say so? because more than 30EH was gone from SHA256, all the other Altcoins combined don't make up 5EH of it, so even if they were 100% more profitable only 5EH would have migrated before we reach to an equilibrium of profitability across all SHA256 coins.

These profitability swings happen all time, coins are never equally profitable but usually, the difference isn't worth the switch, but when an altcoin price does 50% to the upside when and if bitcoin has not moved up as much, that coin will be a lot more profitable to mine for as long as the hashrate on that coin doesn't spike to utilize the price increment.

So if you want to catch those spikes it has to be automated, mining pools like Viabtc offer what's called Smart-Mining where they will use your hashrate to mine the most profitable SHA256 coin and then convert your payout to BTC if you set the auto-conversion on, eventually (just like the other day) you end up with 25% more bitcoin mining BCH and converting it to BTC as opposed to directly mining bitcoin.

---

Phill, sorry about what happened, I know you were not off-topic, I also think the majority of the community would agree to that, I dislike the forks of bitcoin just as much if not more than anyone else, but luckily I am opened minded enough to understand that mining is about profitability and profitability of SHA256 mining takes ALL SHA256 coins into account, the notion of not talking about altcoins profitability and how they affect bitcoin mining difficulty is flawed, it's like saying "don't mention the price of bitcoin in dollars because this is a BTC only section, take the fiat discussion to another section".

I left of my own accord.

It is tough I got here before other coins. No ltc no eth.

basically Nmc and Btc were merged mined on bitminter.

what has happened is there are many well backed coins.


Btc
ltc-doge
eth

are really well back by strong asic gear. and eth is doubly backed by gpus.

I absolutely know that the pow coins interchange as they all work from the idea of turning power into wealth.

I am tired of BTC max guys.
So I left the thread in btc.

Its not a big deal I tried to lead them to more than one favor of pow coin but they like the one.

For me with our farm we have

Btc,bch
ltc-doge
eth.

we have more power than gear ⚙️ so our goal is find cheap gear. and add it.

I do not care what we get as long as it is a good price.

I than juggle mined coins with my stress on

1)btc
2)cash
3) ltc
4) doge
5) eth


I realized if there are 10,20,30% of people here on bitcointalk that only want to talk btc I should let them do it.

This thread is about any pow and how and why its diff moves up down or sideways.

I can’t fit it into Btc section and I won’t do it anymore.

No one has to think I was forced out of that thread and or section.

I will still post in the btc section on other stuff but not about speculation or if it has too many factors for that section to be comfortable with.

I may occasionally post a link to this thread and give a more inclusive idea then what is acceptable for the other section.

I agree except for the mining sub-section. Mining is mining, there's no need for segregation.
I've also seen the hostility when someone stumbles onto their turf. There's no need for that either.

I'm just trying to show support for Phil, he doesn't deserve to be chased away like that.

more that eth is way way way better at $ per watt.

and with power becoming higher cost pick you best gear.

some that bch was godlike for a few days.

some that ltc/doge was better than bch was.



so if your power cost alters you drop the lessor coins.

@ fuzzy its cool

I have enough arguments in economics when I try to blend all POW  coins  into my watt  to dollar earnings ratio concept.

It's not just a thread - it is an entire section that is BTC only. Frankly, to cut down on noise about the few valid alts and the massive number of truly crap altcoins I for one prefer that the folks running the Forum keep it that way.

@Phil, personally I would have done this topic in the General Discussion or Economics area where discussion of any coin is not only allowed but expected...

I am not going to reveal all my thoughts about why including all POW  coins in difficulty threads is needed.

I am not going to reveal all my thoughts about why I do not like POS COINS.

BUT  my thoughts on what have happened to BTC diff and other diff  are as follows.

Power is the key asset to turn profit.

So watts per hash per earnings translate into dollar per watt.

SO the biggest miner is bitmain.

They run the most gear

They have asics for LTC/DOGE merged mining
They have asics for BTC and or BCH
They have asics for ETH

They get or build them cheaply however you want to explain it. They get bargain prices for the gear.

All facts


So sell cloud mining for LTC ETH and BTC along with BCH-they do
Make good cheap machines-they do


I believe they have excess

LTC/DOGE asics
BTC+BCH asics
ETH asics

if they can raise coin prices and tamp down difficulty they never need to sell their gear they can mine

lets say 144 x 7.25 = 1044 bitcoins every day new and fees

1024x60000 = 62,640,000 a day in BTC wealth

lets say 144 x 6.25+ 5  = 905 a day in BCH or 905,000 a day in BCH wealth

lets say 5.3 mill x 100 x .09 = 47,700,000 a day in ETH wealth

lets say

6.81 x 302300 = 2,058,663 a day in LTC wealth

14,972,094 x .3 = 4,491,628 a day in LTC wealth


so above is about what is mined today in 1 day for all the coins I mention

it adds to 117.79 million a day x 365 is 42,995,281,215

 42 billion a year in new mining coins.  

Why sell gear when carefully  shifting your excess gear always maxes your wealth per watt.


So they sell gear when mining prices crash.  Look at diff raise like mad in 2018 as prices drop.

This cycle someone on their team has figured out by holding back gear and having excess gear for all the cloud ops they can maneuver pricing of coins.

SO before the diff crash due to the coal shortage.

Eth diff went up higher and higher

BTC was flat or close to flat.  

They used 120% eth for every 100% they needed to pay the eth cloud miners off.

The extra 20%eth  was used to buy btc to pay some of the btc cloud miners. this saved them power cost.   remember all their gear is cheap for them so having 120 machines when they need 100 machines is easy for them.

Now we had a huge drop in power in china due to the coal issues .

You are bitmain you are getting power cut backs from the government.

You shut down some btc and turn on excess eth

here

btc 100% of the cloud gear needed   but you have  130%
ltc  100% of the cloud gear needed  but you have  130%
eth 100% of the cloud gear needed  but you have  130%

they have to do a massive shift to cover the power cuts and it is easy to see the pattern now.

but phil why not sell gear.

here is why. they can make a s19pro for under 2k and get 9k so 7k profit.

sell 10 = 70k
sell 100 = 700k
sell 1000 = 7m
sell 10000 = 70m
sell 100000 = 700m
sell 1000000 = 7b  

lets pretend they sell 1 million and turn 7billion profit


So showed at the top of the post there is about 42billion in coins to be mined.  and 1 million s19 units is
110eh so if they sold that much gear.  the network jumps to 160+110 = 270 eh

their 30% share of mining in the cloud drops to 17%

so 17% of 42 is 7.14 billion in mining with 7 billion in sales = 14 billion

or 30% of 42 = 12.6 billion in mining with 0 in sales seems worse to do what I say .

nope they set preorders 6 to 9 months in advance  sell 200000 miners profit 1.4 billion on them.

and they have up front money same profits by selling 200,000 as they do by selling 1,000,000

Yeah that's why I think BTC diff is not growing and ETH is growing.
along with BTC price doing 3x 2017 price and eth only doing 1.6 x 2017 prices.

It is what it is. Not sure how it shakes out in the long run.

A thread for BTC mining exclusively has been obsolete since 2014.
Since 2014 BTC is no longer the only large cap coin, sha256d is no longer the only ASIC mineable algorithm,
and many altcoins use the same mining equipment as BTC and face the same issues.

That BTC purity is still strictly enforced is nothing less than elitism, or at the risk of violating Godwin's law,
another kind of "ism".

I didn't dare ask the question in the other thread, so thank you for creating this one. Is it the power shortage in China that is responsible for the huge drop in hashrate OR because people switched over to mining BCH when the earnings were significantly higher than BTC?

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I have been running difficulty threads for BTC in the BTC mining section.

I have had too many complaints and censorship that I include alt coins in the threads as explanations as to why BTC diff is down.  Rather  than fight against the idea of BTC maximalism I will post here in this thread.

I will not delete other than:

 fuck blow me bitch type posts
 I will kill you posts

All opinions are welcome.