Topic: A perma-bull's take on this situation (Read 4479 times)

So when it goes to $150 & you lose more than half of your money because you bought it today... what will you say? It will keep getting more affordable for years to come!!!



Dude check the charts, read the order books, of course selling is limited but look how much is taking place! $1.8m in mining revenue PER DAY man, think about it... Over $2m per day would need to come into bitcoin just to maintain the current price! You're logic is waiting for the rewards to half wow. Will that somehow get people to actually use bitcoin?? Or will they just keep dumping for fiat?! Lets be serious here.

Bitcoin will still continue to decline in price but in the bright side its more affordable rather than buying it in a $500-1k

Think you say? First off it is very limited selling pressure, not unlimited - that is the point of digital scarcity.

The selling pressure is halving every two years as the block reward drops. This reward used to be twice as high as now but the price was multiples lower than today. In early 2016 it will half again. Predicting falling prices based upon a decelerating rate of inflation goes against common sense and the long term bitcoin bull market. Your reasoning is suspect.

What makes you think that?? Is anyone really supporting bitcoin? Everyone is just using it as a way to get more fiat... How is it a bull market long term when miners will continue to sell every coin they mint? That means unlimited selling pressure... think.

Bitcoin just needs a spark that gives the world the aha moment for btc as a SoV. A large portion of the world is pretty aware of bitcoin now and on-ramps are opening up all over. The next rise can make all the rest of them look like a small blip on the chart.

I don't know what will set it off but the economics are in the bulls side in the long run.

No problem! More coins every second... literally huge 100BTC blocks on sell order waiting for you to buy more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more & more .......

I've bought all the way down and proud of it

Coins at $500, $400 and $370's are all better than paying for coins in the $1,000+ range. I have automatic weekly buys, so keep selling me your coins please

People thought they were getting cheap coins when the price fell to $500.

I think we will see price in the $200s this year but no lower than that. Eventually things will turn around, but as to when, that's anyone's guess.

Im fine with this... more "cheap" coins for me too.

As long as adoption rate continues to climb I am happy. Price is being kept artificially low, wether it be manipulation or loss of faith. After that is done.... we all know what is going to happen.

Thanks for telling your meaningless opinion.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Quantum_Universe

I think we will see 2xx before anything else happens.

Are double digit prices possible?

That is one opinion. Fiat is made to be dumped. That's why folks gamble. That's why banks gamble on sub prime mortgages. Why not gamble on a sure thing like Bitcoin?

Yes of course, fiat is created a lot faster but NEVER will it be dumped into the bitcoin market....... Think about it, the people who have the most wealth want the dollar to survive NOT BTC

There is infinitely more fiat that can be dumped into the market.

The "wall" is never ending! There will always be more coins to dump into the market!!

Internationally the black market drug trade is worth about $400 billion a year. Darknet markets are growing at over 10% per month apparently. BTC has a price floor of triple digits simply by that alone.

That's what I think too.... and hopefully this "long time" is relative to bitcoin (so months to a few years) and not human life (5+ years)

There's no walls high enough for Bitcoin to go to $0
I think double digits are gone for good

All of those "buy walls" are sooo fake... I watch many of those people cancel ALL THE TIME! That's what happens with unregulated things!!! As a perma-bear, I can tell you BTC price chart looks exactly the same as a penny stock pump and dump that waves widly in the wind back n forth back n forth until its literally worth $0.00

Sure, having certainty about any market is dangerous.  But, to a certain degree walls are sometimes used to create misperception of support/resistance.  Is something meant to create misperception not the definition of an illusion?  I'm not sure what you're trying to say with the bold part, I got a parse error trying to read it.

sure. What i start to see around here though is this preaching of 'hodling' and 'it will be 10k$ 100% sure' ... i think that's dangerous. And to go to the length of telling people the orders were an illusion tops it off really. Maybe next time better more accurate.


exchanges could be naked shortselling all they want aswell. Happens on some alt-exchanges, i am sure.

Bitcoin exchanges using the Mt Gox model are rigged by design. IIRC someone suggested that Bitcoin exchanges are like casino card games where the dealer is allowed to play and look at everyone's hand. I would add that they can even change the rules as it suits them. Mt Gox is the only one caught rigging so far. The exchanges need to be regulated by an independent third party.

Real in the sense they are backed by funds on an exchange, yes.  Real in the sense that if someone has enough money to blow through the order books they can take them, yes.  But walls are fickle, that's all he's trying to say.  Not everything is black and white, learn to see the grey.

true, didn't read the username. Still the same thing. I think the orders are very real right now. Dude, can't tell people "the orders aren't real". Excuse me. lol

First off, I'm not spazzdla.  Second, quit with the hyperbole, it makes it obvious you are trolling instead of trying to have a rational discussion

i can trade myself, i know how it works. But dude, don't tell people the orders wouldn't be real.

So you think there is one large guy who controls all exchanges on international level and that guy holds millions of bitcoin and has billions in capital to drive the price wherever he wants, right? There is no free market here at work, right? Supply and demand is just an illusion, right?

It is commonly observed that these orders are pulled automatically as their price is approached.

now i am really convinced this is a brainwashing cult. The orders are not real? Tell me more.

Non of those buy or sell walls are real.

Until the halving occurs? Unlikely but possible. Also possible an ETF is approved by December and insider buying drives BTC up to 700 dollars in a week before it explodes through early 2015 with an influx of easy capital.

"patience" means: 'be ready to hold during stagnation until it halves'

dude, check the depthcharts again. There's enough coins for everybody.

Price leads sentiment smalltimer, not news events.

Half a billion dollars of VC investment into infrastructure by the end of the year, widespread global merchant adoption and integration, large funds such as GABI entering the market, regulatory engagement, a potential ETF to be approved (opening up a huge potential capital pool of investors) suggests that bitcoin has enormous global future potential. Ask yourself why all this trouble for what is probably only a million active bitcoin users at present.

Patience!

I agree 100%, I think it will take a long time.  Although once it starts its real rise it will rise jump up 100-1000% in a matter of mintues or seconds not even hours or days.

Fallin and X will come on here begging for BTC.  I might give them a microbit.

note: i was permabull until recently. I turned bear just few days ago after seeing how it dumps on paypal-news. Paypal was ment to take this to 5k$
Now what does it do?

No we need patience. That's hardly a miracle.

Oh and if you look at the charts on the right zoom level they are still as pretty as ever.

That money is 100% deductible just like every other business expense. Do you know the difference between profit and profitability? $500M is nothing on a global scale for any ambitious industry. If the miners weren't making a profit off that $500M then they would stop spending the money. Just think of how many jobs that $500M is creating!

miners dump themselves in the ground. People loosing confidence. No new money coming in since months because the charts just look super ugly. We need a mircale at this point to save bitcoin. Halving in 2016 is much too late.
Inflation killed off adoption. Like it or not.

Best case would be for it to find its floor here. We are two inches from a panic. If we see that panic it is game over.

Yes, fees aren't high enough yet to be an incentive to sufficiently protect the network.

Inflation is not the problem, therefore it has little effect on the eco-system even when it's lower. The PoW mining expense is the problem, $500M per year currently, and will grow higher if Bitcoin price rise. Therefore, it's hard for Bitcoin price to rise.

It wont be that high for long. Come the next halving it will..er halve. Whether i am happy about it is irrelevent. The coins are being distributed as per the algorithm and the really high inflation of bitcoin is behind us.

A much better question is whether a centralized mining race is good for bitcoin in the longer term.

The inflation is NOT the problem, the inflow of capital due to increased adoption can easily take care of that. The problem is still the PoW mining expense, $500M per year!! the inflow of capital has trouble keeping up with THAT.

are you happy with 10% inflation? Do we need that? Even the dollar can hold value better.

Bitcoin is not ment to be adopted. It's ment for miners to cash out on the noobs.

It was the first experiment. Today we are able to strike a better balance between interest of adopters/investors and miners than bitcoin did. Look how insane that armsrace was. There was far too much money in mining.

Let me guess, you have a different coin to suggest?

everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption. He is probably mining himself the shit out of it and dumping as fast as he can to this day.

Once the panic is on it's over.

Thank you, sir.

Good luck with that.

We need to get to sub $10 to shake out all the weak hands.

According to my analysis, the next bull market will start in April 2017. That's the start of the mainstream phase.

As a fellow perma-bull myself, I think the recent price lagging can all be explained by the Chinese (miners and manufacturers).  I believe that they are comfortable mining at a razor thin profit margin in order to get $.  When it was just more developed countries mining for the most part, everyone felt they should become millionaires for running a miner.  I think the Chinese are happy making a few extra cents per day where some of us want dollars.  Eventually, the difficulty will catch up to where even they aren't satisfied with their returns, and we will see the mother of all bubbles as they dump miners and take positions as Bitcoin holders instead of selling for an immediate tiny gain.  I don't think we're in the, "but it's different this time" stage yet.

This is what always happens prior to a huge bull run. If we look back, before nearly every large run up (maybe except 2011 since that was the first true run) there was a long slide. Long time holders pulled money out to the sidelines. However, given most people who have bought bitcoin are believers this money is waiting to move back in.

What does that mean? Instead of all bitcoin holders being 100% invested (which is what happens at a bubble/peak) we are probably around 50% invested. Once we start to move up that money will move back in. Once it starts moving we get anotehr snow ball effect and the moon.

This may takes a year. But I am confident we will see new ATH by the next split.

Very much so.  Can't wait to see where the next one ends up.

I think one thing we can all agree on is that when the next surge does start, it will be swift and it will be violent.

This is a good point. I am a long term holder indeed.

But I even agree with what was said above that we might even see prices sub 3xx.

We are at a crossroads now boys.

Uncharted waters.

Let's see what happens in Q4.

i'm a perma bull as well, but based on some of the TA (masterluc, Ryan, DanV) i think we're going to 280-290 over next 2-3 months before starting the next big bull trend.  i think that trend could see 2015 looking similar to 2012, and the next block party coinciding with a big move, possibly parabolic.

Every thread like this brings the end of this bear market closer. I think we are at an interesting inflection. 30 minutes of heavy volume and the price rallied 10%. The price may fall further, but the major move of this decline is likely behind us. For all the book talking about lack of demand on the exchanges the risk/reward ratio has shifted perceptibly away from the short side. One or two more unexpected surges on positive news and none in their right mind will short bitcoin..

I think you selected a wrong thread title. As you write you are a long term bull (long term holder), not a permabull. A permabull is something stupid and irrational. They deny obviously bear markets and are getting overexcited on even very tiny bounces. It's something emotional and very unreasonable. Out of fairness I will admit that they may have some positive impact to Bitcoin as they form a strong community around it.

But your interpretation of the current market situation same as your outlook is far too reasonable to call yourself a permabull  

I think that it's reasonable given the scope of integration... if we were looking at announcements for bitcoin wallets and full integration into Ebay, that would have been a much different situation.

That is quite possible scenario

I am and forever will be long term bullish on Bitcoin.

However, I think it is pretty clear right now that there is ZERO confidence in the markets.

It is pathetic that we cannot even stabilize above $430 after what happened the other day.

Many weak hands are scared and leaving the market.

Scared money doesn't make money, so please let me have more of your cheap coins

I think we will see $375 and stay around 4xx for a long time though before anything jumps off again.