Topic: A proven way to make money from gambling - what's your opinion about this? (Read 649 times)

I don't want to deposit $6,000 although the profit is big because of it still not worth my money. I cannot imagine if somehow, we lose all the money even if we can get a break even, it still not worth to deposit that money.

But the high-risk strategy will come to high profit too, and that is what I learn so far. But still, I don't want to use big money to play gambling.

How is the profit worth it here? You need to risk $6000 for a mere $20 to $30 profit and you need to risk your bankroll again and again in order to try and break even which is honestly silly and something I would not recommend.

This approach is indeed different when compared to traditional approaches, but is still a high risk strategy.

Honestly, I'm not really familiar with horse racing bets and I was so glad that I've read your thread. Depositing $6,000 is no joke and is a big amount. But the profit is worth it if you win. Since I wasn't familiar with this kind of gambling, how come you will bet on the other horse that you think will lose?
Unlike other games that you will bet on the winning team, this one is the opposite.

It is indeed a wise idea. But not all people are into sportsbetting or games of as such. I do also disagree that betting on a hores race is not gambling because you are betting and there's no 100% assurance of winning. There are still tendencies to happen which you have mentioned. The bottomline is that, winning in gambling cannot be really manipulated. You may seem to have observed a pattern but I would say that it might just be a coincidence. Gambling is pure luck and patterns won't really help.  In order to just make full of gambling, just enjoy it and do not aim for profit, in order to not have frustrations and further yield to gambling addiction. I do still commend OP for having good observations.

Why is Bitcointalk getting flooded with spammers of VegasCasino?

You are right, in every single Casino game you are 100% guaranteed to lose because of the house edge.

But this is not Casino!

What I exemplify here is you betting against other people - using BetFair - you actually don't have many "new casino houses" doing what BetFair is doing, you have BetDaq and Matchbook but BetFair is still the #1 website for this kind of activity.

Also unlike normal betting in horse racing where you need to guess which horse would win the race - here you can guess which horse would LOSE the race and that's how you make profit - you are actually in some way being the house here, because you use a huge balance to "sell" other bettors the opportunity to bet on horses with high odds.

Nonetheless it's still gambling, and BetFair (or Orbit Exchange in this regard) makes a commission regardless of who wins the bet, so they are the real "house" here, but this was just a new method for you to think about (it's actually not so new, but I haven't seen many people talking about longshot horses, I did see tons of articles about "laying the favorite" but no one actually talks about longshots).

This has been the case since ancient times only here you are making a good 20% chance to win for the gambler when in reality it is just below 10%.

I wonder if gamblers do not understand the simple fact that new casino houses are popping up everyday and this to me means that the house always wins. So no matter what strategy anyone tries to apply the outcome is 100% right that he will lose the money in the longer term.

The only way to make money on gambling is having your own gambling site or becoming the banker of the bettimg game. No one has a sure earnings on gambling except if you are the one who initiates it. The odds of you winning is 90 -100% whilst the better only have 5-20% depending on the kind of game you are having.

You are welcome to see it and respond as well, it's here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/documenting-my-horse-racing-bets-started-26-dec-2018-5089805

That's actually the right spirit.
Why no one is paying attention to it?

PS I have a record but cannot share it here for many reasons.

You don't need to go to Australia or be physically present there, you simply bet from wherever you are, online.

Any +EV method is bound to disappear quite fast...

So something as simple as betting on the low odds... It can't be +EV

Horse racing is the worst form of gambling for a gambler, for someone to predict which horse would win the race, but here you LAY the horse, you choose which horse WON'T WIN the race, that's why it has much more value than you think.

It's better than dice because you use real horses with real human beings in real events, and not just randomness from a dice ... Besides some theories you raised here I don't see anyone who can show me when a 100+ horse won a race in Australia, it's very rare to see one. It could happen but usually by the time it does (and assuming you took that race) - you can not only double but triple and quadruple your initial investment.

Horse racing is one of the worst forms of gambling because this form of gambling is known to have been the first form to become corrupted from the horse owners. I have worked in a casino a few years ago where we would transmit via Tv horse races from London and people got broke with it. I doubt very much horse racing.

From all gambling games, betting on horse and dog racing are the ones I dont like at all. I dont know anyone who made money on this, and I know a lot of people who like to bet on horses and dogs. Betting on low odds is never a good way to bet, in any sport, when you win you win a little, when you lose you lose a lot, after everything you end up losing much more than winning. People will never learn that there isnt a proven way to win in gambling, you need to lose in gambling too, its the game where you win and lose all the time, good gamblers just win more than they lose, others lose more than winning.

What does patience have to do with it? You increase your bet sizes and you can still win decent amounts...

That said, I do think that over the long term, you're bound to lose some time.
This might be a very low risk way of betting, but it sure isn't 100% guaranteed.

I really doubt that this is actually +EV for the player.

Right. And i probably wouldn't have the patience for this tactic. Why gamble at all then? You take away the excitement by playing a little bit too safe that you compromise a lot of things that make gambling fun.

Your title is completely misleading.

This isn't a proven way to win, this is just betting at low odds, which is probably the worse possible way of gambling... You're sur to win only a veeeeeeeery tiny amount of money when winning, and you lose it all if the horse gets to win...

Very few people can actually become a professional gambler. If it was really easy casinos would all go out of business.  Guys that are willing to put in the work and do lots of research on matches can come out on top but they need a large bankroll to withstand any variance that may come there way for an unlucky streak.

I personally think this is a risky business you are in. I am loving sports bets as well. For fun I place accumulators for the big shots with low buy-in. But I think the only way to make consistent money with sport betting is by doing arbitrage bets or following an value betting strategy. Both arbitrage and value betting are 2 proven strategies that can generate consistent ROI on a long term point of view

I do get it's not the same, but I have a feeling it's rather hugely more variant than we'd think. I bet on sports a lot too and there's just so much to account for that they've got hundreds of analysts and computers drawing up the initial odds for football which has arguably more variables than horse racing.

It just feels like a really bad idea (and certainly not a proven method) to use your strategy on 200 horse bets just to double the bankroll, when it seems far easier to use a provably fair method at about equal chances.

Furthermore, with bookies, they may never always take your full 6k bankroll, and then there's so much chance for collusion, bad luck... you do say Australia is less prone to corruption but that doesn't mean it isn't bulletproof. I'd rather risk it on pure maths on dice is what I'm saying - not that I'd ever risk 6k for $60!

P.S.: Found this site on 100/1 horse strike rates. They do seem to be climbing every year, closer to the 1% equilibrium. So it may appear, statistically, betting against 100/1 horses has an edge. But phew, I could still never do that. If you want, you should do a record and collect 200 races so you have something to show =)


Yeah, I did count in house edge already for those 70 rolls. It would be fewer rolls without edge. I'd still never all-in $6 70 times at 99% chance though. Madness. Unless that were maybe 1% of my bankroll, and I just wanted to show off or build up a wagering record. Playing for wagering prizes makes that +EV.

Not everyone can go to Australia and bet on horse there(I don't know it can be done online or not).

But my intention is to mention that it can be completely go upside down when someone want that to happen.

Here are the results from Scone:



This one wasn't even making a threat.

You just have to do it repeatedly, say 4-5 time a day to make $100 - $200 per day. (assuming your bankroll is $6,000).

Also I wouldn't risk more than $6,000 or so, unless you are super rich - the thing is - it is possible to make some $ with it, by all means this is not a low risk investment (not only because of the races but because of all the gambling that is involved with it, you keep a balance that you can easily lose by betting it elsewhere - what you shouldn't do it if you're 100% oriented on this one).

Do you want more screenshots like this? Do you want to see the account statement?

Here is an example - a race in Scone, Australia in 5 minutes - this horse is 7 year old, price on this one has gone up, it's no good whatsoever, won't win this race:



In the betting exchange you can try to sell it for 200 or SURELY sell it for 300 i.e. for $6,000 you would make $20:



Is the risk high? No, it's a losing horse, 100%.

Are you asking if this is difficult to do it repeatedly? It's up to you, but I'm just mentioning this horse for instance if you check its data is good for nothing.




That's why you choose a location like Australia, and not South Africa.

South Africa is much more prone to these types of corruptions, Australia is much more solid, and of course any location - Australia or the UK can get some corruption in it, but usually it happens with lower priced horses, not these ones that are completely trash.

WHen you deposit huge amount so when a bookie intentionally want that hirse to win to go bankrupt,we call it as match fixing right so we have a way but it can go the wrong way most of the times.

I love that you lay out the argument and proposed method to it all but really thats not easy money.    When this 100-1 horse wins, please play out the maths of that scenario for me long term.

The part of it that I have roll over all my winnings on every single bet, thats risky alone.   Things happen, profits should be taken really not always rolled over.


So that calculable, if 70 rolls of a duplicate bet were made then 99% becomes  49.4% of never losing that bet.    This is the same deal as the green slot on roulette wheel, it dont have to win often just being there means the house wins often enough to pay the dealers, rent etc



I disagree with this.    For starters its a game, so people win anytime they enjoy watching the game but also some people just know their team odds well.   For someone to know all the teams performance better then a professional setting the odds, thats unlikely but it can happen.

Laying enormous priced outsiders as per the Op is suggesting is madness. Huge price horses win races - don't even think about it.

I just can't believe this works with the high volume of plays needed to break even either- even with a tiny percent of loss per play, I still think that there's a significant risk of ruin over time, especially since you're risking your entire bankroll on every race. I'd certainly be interested to see you provide proof that this method of yours works, however. There's still an element of luck in this as with anything in gambling, and there's no guarantee that you'll make money with this anyhow.

In a dice game like Bitsler if you staked $6,000 USD or 1.848BTC (at today's rate) and set the chance of winning to 98%, you will get 0.0188BTC or $60. While the chance of winning is high, there's still a small percentage that you may loose that 1.848BTC in exchange for 0.0188BTC. It's not worth the risk. Not really a good idea.

Actually waiting for the proof because telling about success is easy but proving it out would really be hard. I cant even imagine to ROI or break even on 200 games.
Its unbelievable and come to think even betting the baddest horse ever wont give you 100% sure win. One mistake then bankroll is gone and i dont have the balls
to risk out with that kind of bets.

I have heared many times that horse racing somehow unique from others and more profitable, personally I have no experience in it.
It's good you shared your idea OP, don't get critics wrong but I think too that horse racing is risky and doesn't worth, imagine you have to risk 6K to get just 30$, easy but very risky, it's even rough on 0.1% risk possibility.
For further note, there is not proven way nor will be.

Wait, $1,000 you say? But how many times you have to risk your $6,000 for that? It can take around 50 bets, if I understand the OP rightly. Anything can happen during those 50 bets and you can lose your $6,000 at one time. With the same result you can go to a dice site and make 50 bets with 99% win chance, as @buwaytress suggested.

Also, the chances are not better if you don't do it constantly time after time, they are always the same, and they depend on the number of bets, regardless of when you make them.

It works for you but not all gambler can get the same result as you. I am sure that many of gambler trying to use many ways to win the gambling and they will try to use many proven techniques that claimed it would work. But we need to remember that we don't have the same opportunity like that person. One strategy will work for one people, and it cannot work correctly with the other people, and I guess that the result will have a big difference for one people to the other people.

Absolutely there is no way to make profits from gambling long term - and this method discussed here had "failed" a few times but long term it made more profits than losses. I can take screenshots from the next bets if you wish to see a proof but it won't prove much as almost every race you get a "winner" (i.e. a losing horse).

Still, it's something to think about, much better than playing random games with random occurrences, of course this also has some randomness built into it, but with the right data it's pretty much eliminated, much better than many other forms of gambling - nonetheless ... gambling is bad by nature, it's not a positive thing and we in our business do not encourage business - this information is just brought to you in case you want to become "investors" and try this method - it does work pretty well for many people who do that, but still, there is risk, feelings and emotions, temptations, and stress involved, so it's not suitable for everyone.

It should not be a big problem to prove it because he had no losses so far, means that he is in a very great profit. But if he cant prove it, so all those long sentences are just like an imaginary writing. I have to agree that there is no proven way to make profit on gambling. So it will be much more appreciated if there is valid proof. No offenses for the OP, but are talking about the reality in gambling here.

You say it is a proven way - please produce the proofs!

There is no proven way to make money from gambling or sports betting. Gambling is not a method of making money - no matter how good are you at it!

No problem,
Would be happy to hear your feedback as to how it goes.

As for the others:

1) If you risk $20 - $30 on horse with 100+ to 1 you and do it repeatedly - you are surely going to lose money or get demotivated by shorting your bankroll time after time.
2) Here you grow your bankroll time after time, unless of course that super bad horse wins.

Also it's not 200 races to win, when you get to $10k from $6k then odds of 100 produce $100 for 1 race and not just $20-$30, if it's 200 it' still $50 which is more.

Cool! Thanks for sharing sir! I will thoroughly go through it sir!

In any kind or any field of gambling betting games hard to make money in one click
A lot of money they can lose before they can got a winning bet
Even if the expert gambler are chave same situation sometimes the expert gambler
only thing learn about this nobody become successful in gambling in a quick time

Wow, that sounds very dangerous! I mean, sure, horse betting is not purely based on luck, you can theoretically be really good at it and earn money on regular basis, but not like that! And risking $6k to get some $30? That sounds crazy to me, even if the chances of losing that money are low. I am happy for you that you've been earning like that for a while, but it's definitely time to stop risking and enjoy the profits.
As your method is not really about skills, I think it can be compared to playing dice at high success probability, even though you already replied to another user that it can't.

I don’t understand where the edge is here? If you lay a horse at 100/1 then if it should be a 110/1 shot you will make money in the long run, or if it should be a 90/1 shot then you will lose money, if 100/1 is the correct price then you will break even (except of course for exchang commission.) There is nothing magical about the horse being a big price that makes it profitable for you to lay, because there is no inherent reason why that price alone would make the market inefficient.

That's not the same as 99% chance of a dice.
You choose that horse to lose based on several factors, such as previous record, previous Jockey, you get all these stats immediately at many sites without having to dig for this data.

You also don't have to gain even, if you are happy with making $1000 - just take it out and continue later on when you feel comfortable - the chances are better if you don't do it constantly time after time but instead - choose carefully your venue etc.

My opinion: that is a terrible way to "grow" your bankroll and is a proven way to lose everything.Believe me a lot of people are trying that each day. You say go for 100/1 odds, well, that's the equivalent of going to a dice site and betting at 99% chance to win (yes, this exists in dice games if you don't believe me).

You say 200 bets to gain even? Well if you use compounding in dice games at 98% win (for about 1% gain at 1% house edge), you can double your bankroll in only 70 rolls.

So, 70 rolls at 99% win and provably fair? I'd say that's far better chances than betting 200 times at horses without provably fair!

And still people lose at 99% chance;)

So I saw here tons of discussions about how to make money from gambling, and honestly betting on over/under in Basketball, Football or Soccer, choosing the winning team, betting on point spread - it's not going to win in the long term.

But here is something that I can testify that has worked for me personally and this is quite of the only ways to make money from gambling - and I'd like to hear your opinion about this - so how does it work?

The way to make money - Horse Racing - You bet AGAINST the winning horse (Lay the horse in betting terms, not getting LAID with the horse god forbid   but you lay - bet against it)

1) You only go for races in Australia, no other country is that solid with that.
2) You only go against horses that have odds of 100/1 or more. (i.e. the bookies will pay 100 to 1 if that horse wins)
3) You can use BetFair, 9Wickets or OrbitExchange to lay the horses. (the latter two are mainly accessible via betting agents, they all use the BetFair Exchange market).
4) You don't lay horses that are too young (because they are too unpredictable).

Basically, if you deposit $6,000 you would get from each successful race around $20 - $30 if that horse loses, even if the horse finishes 2nd place you would still get $20 - $30, the horse has to finish first to burn that bankroll and as long as such horse is not winning the race - you would get $20-$30 followed by another $20-$30 from each successful race.

This way you could easily make $100 - $200 per day or even more.
Horses like this are traded for 80 - 600 odds in BetFair, so you are guaranteed to make money from almost every race where you like that horse to lose.

The benefits:

1) This is not exactly gambling, you in some way get an edge here, or in another words we in some way try and take the randomness out of the equation here, you are literally laying horses that are trash, ones that are worthless.
2) Horses with odds of 100 or 150 to 1 can still win the race, it does happen from time to time, but it's extremely rare. You should only do horse racing, not harness and no races in other countries (e.g. in South Africa the rate of horses of this kind winning a race is so much higher!)
3) You must not be tempted to bet on horses of 50-60 to 1, unless you are 100% sure they are trash - horses with these odds have higher chances of winning the race.
4) Remember you risk your entire bankroll every race, you need about 200 successful races just to break even - BUT, if you stick to this plan the reward is going to be quite awarding.

Been doing this for quite a while and had no losses, was wondering what you guys think about this?