Paper fiat is much less traceable than bitcoin and likely a far better option for illegal activities than bitcoin or crypto currencies are.
It is known that the united states military routinely "loses" billions of dollars in fiat & billions in military hardware all of the time:
It would depend a lot on the architecture they're using. It's not clear if this is going to be a Bitcoin attempt or just an all-covering cryptocurrency bid. If it looks more like Monero than Bitcoin, it may very well achieve its targets of avoiding sanctions.
maybe some years out, but at this point, there is no liquidity in the XMR market. it is far too illiquid to be relevant to state actors or their proxies. in fact, i think people are writing BTC off too easily here.
the thing about blockchain analysis is that it takes place after the fact. western governments and their consultants like chainalysis/elliptic can flag addresses and wallets suspected of association with sanctioned russian activity. but it's a game of cat-and-mouse. if a newly registered latvian or moldovan shell corporation provides you a fresh BTC address for payment, what's going to stop that money from being funneled to sanctioned entities?
i thought the idea was that north korea was attempting to hack south korean exchanges and services to accumulate bitcoin, which could then be used to circumvent sanctions.
how is this so different than marijuana companies in the US turning to bitcoin because of their inability to get reliable banking partners? sanctions are largely enforced at the level of financial institutions.