A quicky analysis of BTC's RSI dip down over the past few days...

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on October 01, 2019, 02:32:15 PM

Quote from: jmigdlc99 on September 30, 2019, 10:17:03 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if value rises sharply soon because of the nearing "halvening." Just need to hold a little longer.

I wouldn't be surprised if the block halving is already calculated in today's price.

Bayern LB, one of Germany’s top banks, seems to disagree with you. Their recent report shows a tight correlation between Bitcoin's price and its stock-to-flow ratio. They conclude:

Quote

“If the May 2020 stock-to-flow ratio for Bitcoin is factored into the model, a vertiginous price of around USD 90,000 emerges. This would imply that the forthcoming halving effect has hardly been priced into the current Bitcoin price of approximately USD 8,000 (the current model value is roughly USD 7,500).”

https://www.ccn.com/top-german-bank-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-90000-after-halving/

I'm eager to find out which one of you is right. Tongue

JeromeTash

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Heisenberg

Quote from: 1Referee on October 01, 2019, 02:32:15 PM

The point I'm making is that people are actually preparing themselves for certain type of events or outcomes, which only increases the odds of a counter move.

Good point you made there.
It's what i was telling my friend the other day especially after observing how bitcoin price has been moving lately. I have a feeling there will be some sort of anticipation for the long awaited event and price could move in the opposite direction from what most people would be expecting.

Pipdips

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Quote from: 1Referee on October 01, 2019, 02:32:15 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if the block halving is already calculated in today's price. Similarly, the Bakkt launch was/is calculated in today's price.

Good thinking ^^^

1Referee

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Quote from: jmigdlc99 on September 30, 2019, 10:17:03 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if value rises sharply soon because of the nearing "halvening." Just need to hold a little longer.

I wouldn't be surprised if the block halving is already calculated in today's price. Similarly, the Bakkt launch was/is calculated in today's price.

Think about it, most people are already aware of the block halving and that the price tends to go up prior to the actual halving. People with a high degree of certainty have bought in already and from here on they just wait for the price to go up, just like you are hinting at.

People bought in last year waiting for a bull run; they failed
People sold at the beginning of this year expecting $2000 or even $1000; they failed
People bought in this year hoping for the block halving to initiate a massive bull run; how high are the odds that they fail again?

The point I'm making is that people are actually preparing themselves for certain type of events or outcomes, which only increases the odds of a counter move.

Pipdips

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Quote from: jmigdlc99 on September 30, 2019, 10:17:03 PM

Bitcoin seems to be at a pretty strong support point right now. Can't exactly say if it will be a slow, medium, or fast dip back but one thing seems certain based on all the price opinions/analysis of late, bitcoin is still BULLISH.

I wouldn't be surprised if value rises sharply soon because of the nearing "halvening." Just need to hold a little longer.

Hmm, the next halving is not for a while. It is May 15, 2020. I seriously would not count on price increasing this time around just because of a "halving". What are the chances price will actually drop before and after the halving?

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

traderethereum

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Quote from: Pipdips on September 30, 2019, 09:04:06 PM

Quote from: traderethereum on September 29, 2019, 11:19:38 PM

After Bakkt launch, the price is down for slowly and now, the price still down.

What exactly happened with the "Bakkt Launch". I heard news about the launch, this launch, and that launch. But now Bitcoin price sunk down and you hear nothing about Bakkt... that is a suspicious launch! Undecided

Yes, that's true.
I don't follow any news again about the Bakkt launch, so I don't know much except the launch from twitter.
Besides that, I only know that bitcoin is trying to increase and it proves, and now the price can reach $8000. I think Bakkt can give more chances for bitcoin to rise again.
But we need to be careful with these situations because not all happen in the market can stay for a long time, and the price can go anywhere.

jmigdlc99

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Quote from: Pipdips on September 27, 2019, 01:39:47 PM

Over the past few days Bitcoins RSI dipped down on multiple time windows and it went down pretty deep. Dip dip dip! Any thoughts on this dip?

Is this a healthy dip down? Will there be a slow dip, a medium dip, or a fast bounce back? Are you spotting any contradictory signals to this that I am missing here?

Bitcoin seems to be at a pretty strong support point right now. Can't exactly say if it will be a slow, medium, or fast dip back but one thing seems certain based on all the price opinions/analysis of late, bitcoin is still BULLISH.

I wouldn't be surprised if value rises sharply soon because of the nearing "halvening." Just need to hold a little longer.

Pipdips

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Over the past 2 days I have had my eyes glued to those Buy/Sell walls and they look really good. Like Even Stephen! The price outlook is starting to look more promising. That dip down below the RSI has been causing a bumpy ride though....

btc-facebook

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If we make a trend line below the chart, now it has entered the turning point of bitcoin, there should be a reflection in the near future bitcoin, especially if we see the RSI has shown oversold and also the point at the RSI has returned to the point in November, this can be a serious sign, that bitcoin will experience training soon.

Pipdips

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Quote from: lobat999 on September 29, 2019, 05:58:12 PM

Good observation! If you follow the news more often, you will see Bitcoin whales coming out announcing their long term vision for BTC explicitly stating that they are indeed bullish in it!!

I have noticed that whales announce wildly optimistic bullish statements to the news and then like 2 hours later boooom the price drops dramatically. Like clockwork, the price just sinks. Undecided

Quote from: traderethereum on September 29, 2019, 11:19:38 PM

After Bakkt launch, the price is down for slowly and now, the price still down.

What exactly happened with the "Bakkt Launch". I heard news about the launch, this launch, and that launch. But now Bitcoin price sunk down and you hear nothing about Bakkt... that is a suspicious launch! Undecided

GreatArkansas

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RSI update for the Bitcoin:

This is the daily time frame of Bitcoin for the RSI.
As you can see, last time we fall on the oversold area of RSI was the year 2019, NOVEMBER - DECEMBER when the price dropped from $4,000 to around $3,000.
And now, from $11,000 almost now below $8,000. So, possible that we can see more downsides? But if we can see, probably max $ 7,000?

But this is good for Bitcoin if we will base it on the daily time frame of Bitcoin's RSI. Do bears have no more power to push this more downside?

traderethereum

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After Bakkt launch, the price is down for slowly and now, the price still down.
I am afraid that it will trigger to go down for more, and if that happens, I hope that the traders will not be panic because that will be another adjustment of the price.
Maybe after the adjustment, we will see the price will slowly to start increasing, and I hope that it is the last time we see correction so then the price can fly high and reach the highest price.
But we could make a prediction without knowing the truth, and we should wait and be patient.
But we have a good time to repurchase bitcoin at a low price, and I am sure that many traders will use this chance to get as much bitcoin as they can.

lobat999

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Quote from: exstasie on September 29, 2019, 12:36:58 PM

If we reach sub-$5,000 levels, it'll start looking like a bear market.

Now BTC is hovering at 8k levels which looks like its settling down and acting as its support level. With this, I'm interested to see if its going down to sub-5k levels then I would agree with you that the market has turned bearish!

Quote from: Pipdips on September 29, 2019, 02:02:13 PM

I am not a huge expert but I watch Bitcoin's price every day and multiple times per day.

With Bitcoin I have noticed two types of volatility. 1) this is the type of volatility that makes me think it will go back up soon enough, and 2) this is a more drastic volatility that is packed with emotion and a heavy pulling feeling, like the price is truly going downhill.

More optimistic types of people begin to emerge with their optimistic comments when 2 is happening.

Good observation! If you follow the news more often, you will see Bitcoin whales coming out announcing their long term vision for BTC explicitly stating that they are indeed bullish in it!! Though sometimes I see it as beneficial to the crypto industry acting as a damage control cushioning BTC's downward trend in these past few days.

Pipdips

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Quote from: lobat999 on September 29, 2019, 10:46:00 AM

I think I'm getting more and more accustomed to BTC's volatility that I find it quite normal to see its price rise and fell below or above $2k but will eventually rebound in due time.

I am not a huge expert but I watch Bitcoin's price every day and multiple times per day.

With Bitcoin I have noticed two types of volatility. 1) this is the type of volatility that makes me think it will go back up soon enough, and 2) this is a more drastic volatility that is packed with emotion and a heavy pulling feeling, like the price is truly going downhill.

More optimistic types of people begin to emerge with their optimistic comments when 2 is happening.

exstasie

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Quote from: Pipdips on September 29, 2019, 10:06:27 AM

Quote from: adamlillian on September 28, 2019, 03:10:02 AM

RSI has been around since Bakkt rekt. signals that speculators are trying to sell panic to avoid risk to them. That happened when Bitcoin's Bakkt failed and the hashrate plummeted. We can see Bitcoin's reign slowly weakening and it will soon be defeated by something better. Bitcoin is continually breaking its bottom and this decline will continue.

So the meaning of everything said here is: we are now, for sure, in a bear market... Undecided

The direction of the RSI has been in contradiction with the price movement.

And I've got the Crypto Winter Blues...

We are definitely in a downtrend on the daily and weekly time frames. I still think we are in a broader bull market though. We still haven't reached the 0.618 retracement of this year's rally ($7,200s) which would constitute a typical pullback.

If we reach sub-$5,000 levels, it'll start looking like a bear market.

semobo

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Quote from: Pipdips on September 27, 2019, 01:39:47 PM

Over the past few days Bitcoins RSI dipped down on multiple time windows and it went down pretty deep. Dip dip dip! Any thoughts on this dip?

Is this a healthy dip down? Will there be a slow dip, a medium dip, or a fast bounce back? Are you spotting any contradictory signals to this that I am missing here?

Prices went deep down and we already passed the time frame of quick bump and recover the same region where it was before that dump.And predictions says there are chances for further dump until end of this year.

lobat999

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I must admit that I'm not fond of interpreting technical indicators such as RSI but I can't in any way disregard it usefulness! As a matter of fact, I think I'm getting more and more accustomed to BTC's volatility that I find it quite normal to see its price rise and fell below or above $2k but will eventually rebound in due time.

I guess this must be due to the fact that I have a long term mindset in treating Bitcoin as investment which somehow spares me of having daily worries of BTC's price volatility. Now I see that all of these experiences gave me more confidence that BTC will eventually hit a new record high regardless of what is its price today!

Pipdips

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Quote from: adamlillian on September 28, 2019, 03:10:02 AM

RSI has been around since Bakkt rekt. signals that speculators are trying to sell panic to avoid risk to them. That happened when Bitcoin's Bakkt failed and the hashrate plummeted. We can see Bitcoin's reign slowly weakening and it will soon be defeated by something better. Bitcoin is continually breaking its bottom and this decline will continue.

So the meaning of everything said here is: we are now, for sure, in a bear market... Undecided

The direction of the RSI has been in contradiction with the price movement.

And I've got the Crypto Winter Blues...

adamlillian

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RSI has been around since Bakkt rekt. signals that speculators are trying to sell panic to avoid risk to them. That happened when Bitcoin's Bakkt failed and the hashrate plummeted. We can see Bitcoin's reign slowly weakening and it will soon be defeated by something better. Bitcoin is continually breaking its bottom and this decline will continue.

th3nolo

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Quote from: exstasie on September 27, 2019, 06:50:21 PM

Quote from: Pipdips on September 27, 2019, 01:39:47 PM

Over the past few days Bitcoins RSI dipped down on multiple time windows and it went down pretty deep. Dip dip dip! Any thoughts on this dip?

Is this a healthy dip down? Will there be a slow dip, a medium dip, or a fast bounce back? Are you spotting any contradictory signals to this that I am missing here?

You can't tell that much from RSI alone. People often think "oversold" conditions mean "buy signal" but that really only works under ranging conditions. In a strong downtrend, RSI can stay in the lower end of the range or oversold for quite a while.

"Healthy" in what way? You mean "is it a healthy correction to the bull market" or something like that? It's perfectly healthy as long as BTCUSD doesn't go too deep. Once it starts reaching the 0.786 or 0.886 retracement levels, we have to start considering the notion that we're actually in a bear market. We've only gone as far as the 0.5 so we're still in the range of normal.

Once it bottoms for good, there should be a fast recovery.

Pipdips made a good explanation of how the RSI works and the situation of the tendency long term, that something you don't see very often in this forum.

clearing that, I have chosen an example in the Daily chart of BTC on Bitmex to show you the DIP isn't a big deal "for now". As you can look, the RSI can stay in the lower end of the range for a while.

also, I don't expect any remaining movement this week. based on the average volume of XBT daily based on the Sk3w.co heatmap.

masulum

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hmph..

Quote from: GreatArkansas on September 27, 2019, 10:23:08 PM

Very different position with RSI indicator position. On RSI (default setting), its indicate as normal position. But on Stoch RSI currently indicate oversold position as you share. If I compare with Stoch RSI daily chart, BTC maybe recover to $8.600. But before it happens, I think BTC can be down more dip. Because Stoch RSI on 4H, 3H time frame indicate on overbought position. If BTC can't recover, BTC possible to down back to $7.900 position.

RSI 4H

RSI 1W

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: JeromeTash on September 27, 2019, 05:56:55 PM

Here is a 4 hour chart
https://i.imgur.com/tfqdlk0.png
Which deep are you still worried about. If your are still waiting for the deep to get done. we are already out of it according to the 4-hour chart.

Too much deceiving on lower time frame.
But if you take a look also on weekly chart then the RSI on it.

Also extremely oversold. But I do expect more upside price movements on next week, hopefully.
This is really a huge red weekly candle for Bitcoin and it is very not good.

exstasie

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Quote from: Pipdips on September 27, 2019, 01:39:47 PM

Over the past few days Bitcoins RSI dipped down on multiple time windows and it went down pretty deep. Dip dip dip! Any thoughts on this dip?

Is this a healthy dip down? Will there be a slow dip, a medium dip, or a fast bounce back? Are you spotting any contradictory signals to this that I am missing here?

You can't tell that much from RSI alone. People often think "oversold" conditions mean "buy signal" but that really only works under ranging conditions. In a strong downtrend, RSI can stay in the lower end of the range or oversold for quite a while.

"Healthy" in what way? You mean "is it a healthy correction to the bull market" or something like that? It's perfectly healthy as long as BTCUSD doesn't go too deep. Once it starts reaching the 0.786 or 0.886 retracement levels, we have to start considering the notion that we're actually in a bear market. We've only gone as far as the 0.5 so we're still in the range of normal.

Once it bottoms for good, there should be a fast recovery.

JeromeTash

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Heisenberg

Here is a 4 hour chart

Which deep are you still worried about. If your are still waiting for the deep to get done. we are already out of it according to the 4-hour chart.

Late sunday and Monday will be critical days thou to determine what next.

Lanatsa

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I'm not saying that the dip is over but now we are climbing again on 8500 price after that below 8k levels a few days back.
I'm not a technical analysis fanatic but it isn't bad to look up on RSI Divergence or even that Support and resistance matter.
Dip down reason? Neither of that Flash hashrate crash or on Bakkt issue.We cant be sure but as usual this market do reacts
with these sentiments.

Pipdips

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Over the past few days Bitcoins RSI dipped down on multiple time windows and it went down pretty deep. Dip dip dip! Any thoughts on this dip?

Is this a healthy dip down? Will there be a slow dip, a medium dip, or a fast bounce back? Are you spotting any contradictory signals to this that I am missing here?

Topic: A quicky analysis of BTC's RSI dip down over the past few days... (Read 262 times)