Topic: A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k (Read 1182 times)

Even if they are somewhat successful at hedging USD value, most BTC traders are destined to lose coins over time, and to me that's a tragedy. That's what happens when losing USD becomes more important than losing BTC. I used to see things that way, and I'd be a lot richer today if I didn't have that mindset back in 2015-2016, I'll tell you that.

The default position of "buy and hold" has worked out quite well historically for BTC investors. It's difficult for the average person to beat its performance.

I prefer to keep most coins in cold storage, while also longing/shorting with BTC collateral, the goal always being to get more BTC. That means my default position is spot holding during range (most of the time), longing into active uptrends, and shorting into active downtrends. While that position exposes me to additional downside risk vs. USD holders, it fits my long term bullish outlook. I'm much more worried about losing BTC.

^^ Its not wrong to sell tbh especially if you need the liquidity at that moment but what happens is the person doesnt rebuy when it makes a low.   Everyone goes super emo about the prospects just on the low but the trick is to realise that sentiment is already in the price, it is hard to gauge and not be caught up in the negative momentum.   Its common to every market.

Smart hands off approach is sell but put in buy orders at the same time at fixed lower prices, scale in as most places allow you to do so.    Dont get scared off and alter it later, its a definite you have reduced any loss from the lower pricing.   I do the same with stocks quite often, commodities especially are very volatile and BTC has some similarity to that while not being prone to over production problems.

Most people fail at it.

I remember someone PMing me who got a BTC payout for some work when it had returned to $1000 after all those years. For some reason they wanted me to give them permission to sell it. I told them to sit and wait as you never know what'll happen and a return to four figures was significant after this long, but they were convinced it was a temporary blip and the price would carry on back down. They wanted out so off they went and were never heard of again.

I don't recall anyone predicting any move that's happened in recent times either. If you'd been furiously trading it more than likely you would now have zilch.

Conclusion wont fit out for everybody yet lots of them likes to fight with the waves. Im not saying long term holds is trash but it would be good if you do deal with price on active manner.

For now we do need to break once again that 10k barrier to shoot up on higher levels. Im not seeing for that next target of 5.5k to happen anytime soon but all do have possibilities

because this market is always been unpredictable.For now im waiting up for some little correction but not really bad as this one.

Whipsaw action, back and forth makes it very hard to hold fast vs movement in both directions but the conclusion is neutral for me for most of this year.   It needs more time to work itself out, but I would add the closing price is where the bar forms and every week we get a weekly bar and guess in between receiving those.   I only try to draw strong conclusions from weekly stuff, we arent proven in any trend at present reminds me a bit of 2018 which did eventually resolve downwards but only after a long time sideways.

June 1: shorts got rekt
June 2: longs got rekt

Conclusion: don't trade crypto on small time frames. Invest for long term 

What is the shorting paradise crystal ball saying about Bitcoin attempting to break out above $10k? Should I short some more here?

if support at $ 7,000 goes through then $ 5,500 might be possible,
but right now there is still support at $ 8,000 - $ 9,000 so for $ 5500 is the last thing to think about

Making up some scalping and some swing trades. I would definitely wait up for some slight pullbacks before re-entering the market.9800 is indeed a strong resistance imho and if the price wont make any breakout then its likely to retrace and thats a nice spot to consider to make some re-entry.

Same as yours im not really buying to those speculation threads that do talk about crashes yet no one can precisely know on when this would happen.So it will really be like some sort of
gamble from time to time.

5.5k? Im not saying its impossible but its unlikely to happen nowadays to go back into the level.

Something good is really happening but actually I'm not gonna buy any speculation related on pumps on dumps given since by now I'm looking for good movements and profitable movements since for the past days the flow is so promising, Maybe we can see that $9.8k in next following days but I'm expecting to see a dump before we can see that.

4 days ago I posted about this 9.4k target, right now Bitcoin is trading at 9.2k, and there is clearly a last bullish trap to liquidate all shorts up to maybe 9.8k?

9.8k is still possible, or 9.4k (depends which Fibonacci figure we trust), after that the real crash should begin. Hold tight 

Not a laughing matter to me. I had similar confidence as a bull in October 2019 and February 2020. Smacked down both times, no higher highs. Let's break $10.5K before laughing at bears. I'm a little uncomfortable with how many bulls have been declaring victory before breaking the year-long bearish structure. George W. Bush "mission accomplished" vibes going on.

Somewhat unlikely we see the scale of panic seen in March, that's true. However as long as we stay inside this 2018-2020 contracting range, the $5,000s still look very possible:

I am skeptical about TA - for some reason, 2 adherents of this method from one graph can make 3 completely different forecasts 
In this case, I agree that the short looks very good now, but not in such timeframes (July-August). A big move should happen much earlier.
In the event that you are right, there is a question: is it too expensive to hold a position based on your forecast for so long? It is possible that potential profit will be "eaten up" by the payment for holding a position for such a long time.

I see the recent lower high and thought it could prove a fair signal to watch carefully. I dont know its formed comprehensively enough to say 5.5k target is fair as a consequence but for some reason your chart seems fairly clear in that idea yea.

These are just predictions but they don't need to happen. Also, I think that countries have learned a lot from this pandemic and they will be better prepared for the future. Also, they activated some financial mechanisms that will help them improve situation in Q2 and soften the GDP falll.
It's yet to see if this will be successful but let's hope for the best

As far as Bitcoin is concerned I don't see any possibilities for the moment for such a huge drop, 5500$ isn't realistic value for my point of view. Yes, some corrections are possibilities and will happen but despite that I don't expect such dramatic price fall.

Shorting right now doesn't make any sense to me at all, right now price is getting more and more valuable every second and that is why I think its a ticking bomb waiting to go off any moment now. I feel like $15k is a lot more possible than 5k right now since the price may not be changing but value has been increasing a lot. Undervaluing bitcoin has never worked for anyone at any moment. There has been millions of people, thousands of newspapers and tv channels, hundreds of writers and anchors who have repeatedly said that bitcoin will eventually die.

Look where we are now, at 9 thousand dollars per bitcoin and people became millionaires or maybe even billionaires thanks to bitcoin. Halving has happened, we are moving towards higher levels with every single day according to mathematics, unless people go against those mathematics (quite possible of course) which I doubt will happen.

I see no reason for bitcoin to plummet to $ 5k5. The halving event has taken place and the supply is dwindling, people will soon fomo bitcoin and buy it more from around $ 8k5 and $ 8k. In the coming time, the pandemic will be under control and the economy will be back to normal operation. There are too many conditions for bitcoin to grow in the near future. in case of a drop, the price of bitcoin will only stop at $ 8k, after which it will not fall further.

if indeed it goes to $ 5500 it looks like I'm ready to buy it, because it's been awaited, I've already missed buying Bitcoin at a price of $ 4000, and I really regret it, now I will wait for it 

Just a few posts above there is your proof, post #26.



Time of this post: BTC trading @ $9067.


Today, we saw a Bitcoin @ $9002, from this point, my use of the Elliott Wave theory indicates a possible bounce back to $9442 (using Fibonacci).

Of course this doesn't go against my middle term bearish target. I probably won't open a quick long just for this (too tricky) but curious to see if this plays out. Then from $9442 area we should finally consolidate below $9000 to continue the downtrend, the drop in end of May/beginning of June should be much sharper than what we witnessed during the last few days.

$7800 should be reached in a few weeks.

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

In my opinion it's a downtrend until bulls retake $10.5K. I see all lower highs and lower lows since June 2019:



According to Dow Theory, that's a pretty obvious primary downtrend until proven otherwise:


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dowtheory.asp

Breaking that downward trend is very possible but it's worth pointing out that many bulls (including myself) were prematurely celebrating a new bull market in October 2019 and this past February. Without a break of $10.5K there is significant possible downside from here.

Markets are unpredictable. Trend trading strategies are a monument to that. They don't pretend to predict the market, they just set concrete metrics to avoid being on the wrong side of the trend.

Case in point, trading the 50-day MA:



You're not catching the top or the bottom but you're hedging against major drawdowns. Shorter term trend lines and faster MAs can act as an early warning sign and net you significantly more profits, at the risk of shaking you out or trapping you when there are false breakouts.

It's all about getting exposure and hedging risks, not so much about being right or wrong. Most traders are wrong quite a lot. With the right risk profile they can still make a lot of money.

agree, it depends what chart interval do you look at, i am not an expert in TA, but know that chart interval should be in line with your expectations, if you plan long term investment, you do not need to look at 15 min chart, and what that chart is showing should be irrelevant to you, you should be interested in long term, so daily, or weekly chart, if not monthly should be looked at - and these charts are all showing different lines and goals, because time frame is completely different for daily trader and long term investor (including all steps in-between)

Yes, mainly because everybody can look into other interval of the chart, see other patterns, see other trend/triangle lines and have other opinion.
I don't know if it is really good or bad but that's how you see people saying 5,5k, 12k, etc. and other random numbers which are not helping anyone with getting statement where the market is right now.

The only thing that keeps crypto afloat right now is tether.


They doubled their balance sheets since the big crash.

There is no fucking way I can invest big money again while that abomination keeps growing.

This corona virus pandemic is really serious. This is an economic virus so opening the economy early is impossible. In countries with low levels of disease impacts, consumers are still affected by living conditions. after the pandemic is under control there will be a lot of debt and a great recession will happen again. You should be careful at this sensitive time.

If China and Europe and USA get second wave then anything is possible. Yes we have thicker skin now but we are out of reserves. Q1 GDP drop was massive. I dont understand how Q2 projections are so good since Europe and USA will be way more drastically hit in Q2 then in Q1.

Op is answering all the criticism effectively so far so why making a thread a moderated one if you are open to criticism and you can answer all of this, I have suspicion on moderated topic either they are hiding something (applicable to ICO), cannot defend their projection if there are traders
or they do not want spam comment, unlikely because it will be deleted by mods, show your credibility next time by making an open thread. 

Happy?

Why do you feel so suspicious?  


Not always bearish my friend.

My bearish predictions get noticed more than my bullish predictions. Human nature and nature of this forum.

In December 2019 I posted so many times about a long @6.5k to sell @9k. In March I also recommended to buy @4k to sell @6.5k, saying it was a conservative target. Now with my next move, I am clearly more aggressive but also more confident  

You are right about one thing though, I am usually bullish only in the short term and bearish in the middle term, but I shouldn't be blamed for what the charts say, should I? 2020 is a bearish year overall, not my fault. 2021 who knows?



In my opinion quite the opposite, Bitcoin is like 95% TA and 5% fundamental, so to speak. Much easier to trade Bitcoin than trade any stock. My opinion.

Tell 10 different traders to do TA and you're likely to wind up with 15 different answers. Most TA is horseshit, especially for crypto. A trend line is only valid until it's broken, what kind of crap is that? It's like saying "I predict Stock X will continue to go up, until it starts to go down".

Personally I don't think the price will fall so badly, even after Halving we are seeing some great performances from BTC which should be much appreciated.

Just a small drop in the market doesn't mean the price will affect badly, by the way we have experienced such drop in several occasions. Most of them are expecting pump as most of the countries are back from the lockdown and getting back to the normal life so I don't think the price will fall so cheaply..

Op has said what he or she thinks will happen and from my experience charting do not always work well in cryptocurrencies. I am bullish and if bitcoin get below $7000 I will also buy.

I understand your analysis and respect it, but thinking of falling to $ 5500 is something that shouldn't happen,
we are still on the Bitcoin bullrun, and will not go to $ 5500

Hitting a resistance and bouncing out could be risky as tasting can happen again which will look at confirmation. But if price drops to 5,000 which I doubt, I'm also going to buy  .
A correction though is on the way but further 5,000 is rather to lower side. We are on speculation anyway and market price is improving from 5,000 during covid-19 to 10,000 last week.

I do not know how you can think that the price will fall to $5000 at a time when countries are already starting to return to normal life and we know that after halving the price slowly starts to increase a lot, for sure that the rich will start to put money in bitcoin as soon as they start to go back to their normal life. Think, if even with this catastrophic situation the price was able to remain at $ 9000, then imagine what will happen when the lives of people all over the world return to normal? the price will go up a lot. I know you did a lot of analysis, but this analysis fails most of the time when people make bitcoin price predictions


he must have met the time traveler that John McAfee mentioned last year


I think you are being very optimistic, don't forget that we are talking about the crypto market where some whale can come out of nowhere and cause a big dump without any reason

This is why I love TA people and the short term traders. Right now we have two topics about how bitcoin could break the biggest bull very quickly very soon because it looks like 20k+ is very possible even 100k is at our reach, and there is a topic here about how the target is 5.5k, I can't talk about which one is right and which one is wrong, because I am not an expert and I can't say anything.

However, even the idea that someone can look at TA and say 5.5k while the other person could look at it and say 100k could very well be enough reason that people either don't know how to use TA at all, or basically it is a proof that TA could be looked from anywhere you want and you could see whatever you want, people could literally draw any conclusion they could want.

Oh Bossian, you’re always so bearish, I really don’t see it being possible that we fall that low again. I don’t think we’ll ever see a sub $7,000 again in our lifetimes. We’re set to enter the next bull run soon, the bottom has passed.

Despite all this talk from the original poster, I want to see him put his money where his mouth is. Actually show proof of him shorting it, with a big chunk from his savings. A lot of traders are monday morning quarterbacks honestly.

You better do it at $8,000 or $7,000. Leave the $6,000 to history.

But if ever that $6,000 will arrive, let it. We'll be having another round of buying party.


The most ambitious traders will therefore end up waiting forever.

I don't see it either.  If BTC goes below $6K, I am selling my car and buying!

Best of luck to bears as well.

I've thought that it would drop to $8000 but it seems like we've just hit the resistance of $8900. I'm also considering that it will still drop and that's inevitable within a few months. Well, if ever the analysis you've made is correct on that estimation you have given, I'll buy.

We didn't even try to break out 10.5k resistance level so I don't know why are you using this as an support for your opinion.
About using Elliot Waves - it's okay but ask yourself -> We are after BTC halving event and we are going to 5,5k level in 1,5 months?

Aye.

OP appears to have been born shorting. That's a fine strategy until it's not. A real trader flips when the tea leaves are broadcasting it and never looks back. The rest go down with the position they've married.

I'll go with @stompix here, we don't have definitely proof that it was being sold.

The problem is people tends to jump into conclusion, and we all know that media or any person who has bad intention will spin this out of proportion as evident of the price drop. So we might see some initial drop, but I don't think it will create any more ripple effect to really push the price to 5.5. And if the 50 BTC move really freaks out many investors, we might have seen some massive drop already. But we didn't as the bulls keep fighting and wanted to recover the market and push with their narratives.

First, f*** all that those who are sending dust to those addresses!  Making me scroll every time!!!
Now, chainalysis, which I never fully trust claimed that some of the coins went to Coinbase, after getting through a mixer so...Who the hell knows!!

More importantly, the biggest part of it, 40 BTC has moved only once which has lead to a lot of rumors but one at least makes sense.
A wallet recovery finally paying off, with 20% (that's usually what they charge), with the moved coins being the company claiming its share and the actual owner keeping his coins in a new address and ...waiting.

So it is possible the actual owner has not yet sold a single satoshi...yet!!!

I did a little digging and couldn't find much. Walletexplorer isn't what it used to be. A couple small transactions:

• This address belongs to Binance and was used 2 hops from the original transaction: 1JCfhYLjtw7sbt32WEP6G1MpVx86vurCLA
• This address belongs to Bitmex and was used 3 hops from the original transaction: 3CxD7wefUWHZALqPJ9eCQDjR2BYaVr8PYH

That's a whopping 6.732 BTC sent to exchanges. Who knows, maybe he was using them to go margin long too.

It is bad news for bulls on that lower high but we are forgetting that the bears have already been proven wrong on the 9k top, for over 3 weeks now. So yes disappointed bulls but bears have still to hope their 9k shorts can be saved on this dip, but they will have to contend with all those buy depths just above 9k.

5.5k may very well show up but all too soon to call now.

@Bossian you’re wrong as bitcoin prices was not rejected at $10k levels, bitcoin prices only crashed because of the news that Satoshi was back and he had sold his coins from his old wallet (which isn’t true/unconfirmed for now). However I’m optimistic that bitcoin prices will soon rally upwards till $9.5k levels, and then it’ll try and breach the $10k mark again, but if bitcoins fail to breach those levels then it’s quiet possible that we may see your prediction come true.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/05/21/bitcoin-price-crashes-as-sudden-sell-off-surprises-market/#27ec36ae5202

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54467838

Hmm, sorry but as I understood it was something like 50 bitcoins mined in 2009 being bought a few days ago
What proof do you have those coins have been sold?


So, you're drawing some lines on a chart and you think you can project how supply and demand will evolve in the next months? Based on...? What?
50 BTC getting sold is a matter of concern but less 900 BTC mined every day are not going to influence this?  

Sometimes I wonder if we have enough paper in this world to print all the charts that have been wrong about the bitcoin price.

Why is the thread self-moderated?? Afraid to be criticized??

Different analysts/chart readers have different readings when it regards to TA. My own opinion is as long as it is above the 200 daily MA, it will remain bullish.
There is nothing wrong with your readings since it is your own but the possibilities of that to happen for me is around 5-10% for some reasons.

@cafetools already said that some of the establishments have re-opened thus, the cash flow will continue again and people will receive money again from their work.

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle 

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

Short comment regarding the 50 bitcoin mined in 2009 and sold a few days ago: disappointed bulls will always try to find a logic behind every dump.
Because most Youtube channels related to cryptocurrencies (mostly American) are very bullish, they tend to get very emotional and need to find a reason behind every red candle.
50 Bitcoin is not much at all, and most importantly it is peanuts for the guy who sold since he mined thousands of coins back in the day. The guy is totally free to sell 50 coins when he still has thousands in his wallet, what difference does it make?


What I find absurd is to draw an analysis based on fundamentals while there is no reason that can explain a price dropping from 20k in December 2017 to 3k in January 2019. It sounds weird to say that but never I will post an analysis based on any fundamental.


Bitcoin was not overvalued in December 2017, it was only supply and demand. It was worth 20k because of supply and demand, that's all. The halvening was irrelevant. Bitcoin's project is unbelievable, it is revolutionary, then why doesn't Bitcoin price keep rising? I mean Bitcoin is better now than it was in 2017 (faster transactions) the fundamentals are incredibly good. But the price keeps doing down, think about it. Fundamentals do not explain Bitcoin price. It is all about supply and demand. You are free to think otherwise, but personally I give zero fuck to halvenings or stuff like that.

 

Analysis made with traditional Elliott wave theory, we failed again to break 10.5k, worst news (for bulls) is we didn't even get close and this time got rejected at 10.1k which creates another lower high compared to February 2020.

Now the downtrend is still intact, despite the recent attempt to break a big resistance (descending triangle). We can safely say the bulls are now either selling or placed in the recovery position, praying it is just a bad dream...





Therefore 5.5k looks obvious, with a safe estimate date to be achieved around July-August this year.

5.5k is a quite conservative target I believe. The most ambitious traders will aim at 3.5k (lower low compared to March 2020). And because it needs to be done, Stop Loss set @ 10.8k  


At the time of this topic, Bitcoin is trading around 8.95k, it is very possible we see a bounce back to 9.4k, it shouldn't bounce higher than that, in any case a bounce shorter than 9.8k will confirm the downtrend.


Best of luck everyone