Topic: A trading chart does not play out to 100% (Read 1044 times)

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

I think you are right; because i realized that most times; when you have an idea of what i to happen; movements figured and other details sorted; a news could be out and then every analysis crashes and price dumps. With experience; and good instinct, i support that one can always take profits most times.

Hey buddy!

When replying to a thread, you should always consider on looking at on the date on how long its been inactive or have no discussions or whatsoever because you are just simply
necrobumping up this post.

On topic replay that trading chart doesnt not play out to 100%. Of course, theres no such thing about 100% precision on predicting price movement in the market.
If theres anyone who would able to do that then they are the richest man on this planet.

Lorokan

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Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

I think you are right; because i realized that most times; when you have an idea of what i to happen; movements figured and other details sorted; a news could be out and then every analysis crashes and price dumps. With experience; and good instinct, i support that one can always take profits most times.

SARA ISLAM

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Technical analysis is the process of scrutinizing data from the past and reaching a conclusion, and fundamental analysis is important to know what is happening in that currency now, to trade two things. In my opinion, applying both technical and fundamental together will increase the success rate.

South Park

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Quote from: Kelvinid on July 03, 2020, 06:00:12 PM

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

No, many think that the accuracy of your trades is everything and that could not be further from the truth, remember why people trade they do it to obtain money, if you have a strategy that you have backtested that can generate profits even if it is only accurate 80% of the time then it is really not important that you are missing 20% of your trades, the important thing is that you are earning money, in fact I have seen systems with an accuracy below 50% and you can still be profitable with them if you have good money management skills.

Freddy11

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That is very much obvious thing as there is no way chart could be 100%, so we have to be very careful. I always believe risk management is the most important factor and reason behind one getting success. I always find it simple through FreshForex with their 101% tradable deposit bonus.

Oilacris

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Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

The bolded one is very important in trading, not a chart or TA's we need to acquire in trading coz these all things aren't of big help. Decision making is somewhat a big role in trading and that is quite coming from those things above.

It is to say that traders aren't particular to that chart's and rely upon on it, the trend changing all the time and we can't either say that what happens last year (the same date) or even last month will actually be happening today. Have nothing to see that for sure and that is the reason that we can't just say trading charts will be helping a lot.

You got the point but you cant really deny that majority of traders are making use of that technical aspect.Okay lets say that this isnt important

then how do people do deal up with the market without plotting any trend lines or support or resistances? Just by doing some random guess?

I dont think so thats why people do keep on speculating basing of into their analysis which i do say much better than making out positions

just because your guts do tell you to do so.

Kelvinid

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win lambo...

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

The bolded one is very important in trading, not a chart or TA's we need to acquire in trading coz these all things aren't of big help. Decision making is somewhat a big role in trading and that is quite coming from those things above.

It is to say that traders aren't particular to that chart's and rely upon on it, the trend changing all the time and we can't either say that what happens last year (the same date) or even last month will actually be happening today. Have nothing to see that for sure and that is the reason that we can't just say trading charts will be helping a lot.

MCobian

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Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

htsy585

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Your observations are correct, trade charts can never give 100% accuracy because charts only show traends of previous price movements. People however, have mastered chart trends to the extent they can determine the next trend the force of demand and supply will take. I think it applys to even the TA And Price analyst because on many occasions, users have complained about losing cash because the signal dropped by the analyst turns out inacurate

cytpoway121

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Quote from: sweetbet on June 29, 2020, 07:24:23 PM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Honestly, you do not need to have a 100% chart records; be it only for trades or profits because i believe we cannot always be 100% correct. So i usually advice that we ensure that we make profits most of the time, take calculated risks; and remember to always do your research. Sometimes in trading; it is better you avoid the market totally than trading at loss; have that in mind as a guide too.

South Park

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Charts rarely play out the way they're drawn. Anything can happen to change the course of the chartered course. Bad news, missed deadlines, BTC dump, etc etc. Fundamentals are far more important to pay attention to.

The fundamentals of an asset are important if you are a positional trader and want to take a very long position in an asset, but if you want to be a trader that only holds his coins for a few hours or days then technical analysis is way more important, the variations on the supply and the demand are way more important the shorter the period you choose to trade, besides even if the fundamentals are important it does not really give you an idea of how big or small the next movement will be so you still need TA in order to figure it out.

harizen

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Quote from: Utoy101 on June 29, 2020, 06:27:28 PM

I couldn't agree more, charts are not always acurate when it comes with reading of cryptocurrency because many factors contributes to the price movement of a coin with major focuss on the force of demand and supply

That's a wrong impression about the trading chart. Charts will never tell you the accurate thing to happen but the "possible" thing that might happen.

Charts are useful because it will show you exactly the current activity at a given trend. Because of that, it will serve as a good reference on what to do next by drawing the possible outcome. It served a purpose.

It's obvious that there are other factors that affect the price movement so rely on those factors too as much as possible aside from chart readings.

sweetbet

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Charts rarely play out the way they're drawn. Anything can happen to change the course of the chartered course. Bad news, missed deadlines, BTC dump, etc etc. Fundamentals are far more important to pay attention to.

Utoy101

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While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I couldn't agree more, charts are not always acurate when it comes with reading and predicting of cryptocurrency because many factors contributes to the price movement of a coin with major focuss on the force of demand and supply as well as other activities from the the devs towards developing the project. Sudden fud or related events can also bring about unexpected price movements which would go totally against the readings of the charts

Mpamaegbu

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While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most...

Even life itself has a limit to guarantee. Remember, no one is promised tomorrow. 70% is bloated. I think it is a bit lower than that.

so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

That's why we are mere humans. It takes an immortal being to know all that's yet to happen.

Quote from: pawanjain on June 26, 2020, 10:56:39 AM

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Well, I am a TA guy but that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to news. News will only speedily drive price to meet and perfect TA.

Wexnident

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Naturally. There isn't only one future in a sense, and a trading chart could only show one future. There can be said to be an n amount of futures in the universe, and no matter what, one just can't simply predict what would happen in the next minute, hour, day, week, etc. Trading charts are something that let you make a decision based on what you see, but that doesn't mean that it would be the only basis you have on making a decision. It's not like you'd decide to enter a school for pilots just cause you saw your crush there right? And even if you did, that'd be called impulsive decisions. Even having 2 or 3 factors while deciding could still be said as an impulsive one.

I guess even 70% is a little too much ain't it ?

Imo, yes. Though you can at the very least put it at the minimum of 50%, since if you were to look at it as to whether you'd only lose or win, chances are 50/50 no matter what TA's you read, no matter how many analysis you do.

Tahsin Kabir Kollol

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While trading chats help us trade successfully most of the time but it is true that it may not always be accurate. Trading charts provide traders with an overview of trading but trading is affected by many other materials. At present, the political decisions of different countries and the standing of big traders have also affected it so the trading chart direction may change suddenly. Although trading charts play a helpful role in trading, some big traders organizations make unreal market overviews and try to make fool other traders through it and this is usually lesser known and is more noticeable in the case of low volume altcoins. So in case of trading, I think it is better to trade by observing the trading chart as well as other ancillary matters.

Mrengage

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Quote from: crwth on June 23, 2020, 09:59:50 PM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Let me give you a little tips, when reading charts it's a good spot to also have FA At a standby. Don't follow up trends that indicates buying up instantly without proper analysis.

South Park

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Quote from: South Park on June 21, 2020, 12:11:20 PM

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Even if you backed tested a couple of times or even 1 million times, it’s not a guarantee that you could get that same success rate due to previous times. Something could occur almost the same way, but it’s not 100% the same. Pine scripts are being made for those kinds of testing, but it’s still not perfect.

You are right, it is impossible for the same market conditions to repeat themselves, however if you choose a pool of assets that are representative of several different markets and you perform a backtest over a period of time long enough to have covered many different economic conditions then if your strategy gives positive results then it means it is way more likely that it can give profits in the future if you perform the same strategy, obviously no one can give an assurance that will be the case but at least a trader or investor doing this should be way more confident about the performance of his strategy.

However there are many biases that we need to be aware when doing something like this, one of the most obvious is the survivorship bias, if during your efforts to backtest a system you only pick good stocks or coins then almost any strategy will come out on top and it will seem to be profitable when the truth is the person doing the test is affecting the results before the test takes place.

pawanjain

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While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I guess even 70% is a little too much ain't it ?
Fundamental/Technical analysis works good in the stock market but the same doesn't work so well in the crypto market in my opinion.
Other than FA/TA there are many other factors which we should consider before trading/investing in crypto.
Even after that, there's no 100% accuracy of the market to behave according to your analysis because many times it just goes against us.
Holding the asset patiently and tweaking our strategy accordingly can help us gain profits though.

thesmallgod

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There is what is called a predictive model. It allows users to be able to predict future possible outcomes using existing data. Through previous charts, you can able to predict future occurrences but that does not mean the prediction will be accurate. At a particular point on the chart, there are conditions and these conditions are not constant. The reason why people always mention importance of knowing how to read the chart is to be familiar with how trading works

jrrsparkles

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Quote from: South Park on June 21, 2020, 12:11:20 PM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Trading cryptos based on analysis doesn't always give you 100% success its just because its highly volatile so analysis will more suot to stock market but here in crypto currency lot of factors decide the market movement so no one can what will happen to market in the next minute.

crwth

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One of the problems with many traders is that they want a trading system that is highly accurate and that is very difficult to achieve, it seems traders cannot simply accept that they are going to be wrong on their predictions and worry more about that than about their stated goal of making money from the markets.

It is not just traders that want an accurate system but also the investors where they could make money out of it. It’s impossible to have a 100% Accuracy, and no one will ever achieve it just because of the unpredictability of the market.

Quote from: South Park on June 21, 2020, 12:11:20 PM

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Even if you backed tested a couple of times or even 1 million times, it’s not a guarantee that you could get that same success rate due to previous times. Something could occur almost the same way, but it’s not 100% the same. Pine scripts are being made for those kinds of testing, but it’s still not perfect.

dunfida

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Quote from: CaVO32 on June 22, 2020, 05:28:49 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 22, 2020, 04:21:01 PM

Quote from: Desscount on June 22, 2020, 12:49:11 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 22, 2020, 04:21:01 PM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Even if you integrate all those factors in your trading charts, you maybe get the whole picture of it but not precisely getting its actual direction. It is very hard to predict a chart accurately even if you have all the factors on hand as you don't even know how exactly people react to news/rumours, etc. Very hard to grasp that in your charts. But basic knowledge of TAs and other strategies would be of great help especially if you are an active trader.

Everything would really be relevant and needs to be learned rather than having nothing while you do trade and of course not all would give out
100% precision or effectiveness into your trade but as said this is a helpful tool for you to have at least have some idea on what would be the
next steps you would take.There are other things needed though for this to be more effective and just like what others said this would particularly
talks about news and rumours. Market neither do react or not into these circumstances.

It might not play out 100% but its better to have this kind of analysis than do trade randomly.

rexxarofmoknathal

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TA and charts reading is not by any means THE most important factor. So that's definitely not representing 70% of the trading prediction method, it is however a good indicator but for good use it must be used in conjunction with other factors which isn't read in charts I'm afraid.

These include but not limited to news, projects, especially if these are direct competitors in both finance and/or crypto industry.

CaVO32

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Quote from: Desscount on June 22, 2020, 12:49:11 PM

Quote from: Desscount on June 22, 2020, 12:49:11 PM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Even if you integrate all those factors in your trading charts, you maybe get the whole picture of it but not precisely getting its actual direction. It is very hard to predict a chart accurately even if you have all the factors on hand as you don't even know how exactly people react to news/rumours, etc. Very hard to grasp that in your charts. But basic knowledge of TAs and other strategies would be of great help especially if you are an active trader.

Lorokan

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Quote from: Botnake on June 22, 2020, 07:07:07 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Blue_oxen

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70% is too high IMO, maybe 40% because this market has always been hard to predict.

I believe 60% comes from the news and the rumors, that's the bigger factor that could move the market, so this FUD and FOMO happens.
It happened in the past and it's still happening now, notice when the market move 20% to 30% in just 24 hours or less, that cannot be predicted using the chart, but if you know the rumor and the news, you might see it coming.

True! 70% is way too big for just one prediction method. Despite you do all the work you can, combine all of the analysis that you do, you can only predict up to 70-80% of the market. Charts analysis can't guarantee ups to 70% itself. There are other factors such as news, rumors, projects, and whales!

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While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

Botnake

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70% is too high IMO, maybe 40% because this market has always been hard to predict.

I believe 60% comes from the news and the rumors, that's the bigger factor that could move the market, so this FUD and FOMO happens.
It happened in the past and it's still happening now, notice when the market move 20% to 30% in just 24 hours or less, that cannot be predicted using the chart, but if you know the rumor and the news, you might see it coming.

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Quote from: Mahanton on June 21, 2020, 05:08:57 PM

every trader has their own understanding of the possible impact of the current news and happenings to their analyses.
but TAs will give them the basic idea where the charts are heading to so coupled with their understanding of the market, they will create possible trading movements. but of course, it really does not play out to 100%, there will be always a miss
if one can always accurately predict the market, i think by now they will be famous and rich for what they achieved. but i dont think someone can achieve such status as there are a lot of factors involved. knowledge in TAs is just your basic weapon here

True! TAs can't help you to predict 100% what gonna happens in the market! So do others skills. There's nothing can give you the correctly direction of the market movement. That's why we call our market is unpredictable! However, having the ability to analyze the charts is quite important! The more you know, the better!

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: Oasisman on June 21, 2020, 05:02:17 PM

Quote from: South Park on June 16, 2020, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: Oasisman on June 21, 2020, 05:02:17 PM

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

You do got some point but we know that fundamentals doesnt show up from time to time thats why there are really times that we would really rely into TA's alone.
This is better rather than making up trades without using any analysis neither TA or Funda because that would really be just like simply a gambling.
Dont expect for high precision of success because it will always vary on each trader on how they do decide up into things and we do have different level or learning and skills
thats why when you look to others they do seems profitable even using the same technique or style.

every trader has their own understanding of the possible impact of the current news and happenings to their analyses.
but TAs will give them the basic idea where the charts are heading to so coupled with their understanding of the market, they will create possible trading movements. but of course, it really does not play out to 100%, there will be always a miss
if one can always accurately predict the market, i think by now they will be famous and rich for what they achieved. but i dont think someone can achieve such status as there are a lot of factors involved. knowledge in TAs is just your basic weapon here

Mahanton

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Quote from: South Park on June 16, 2020, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: South Park on June 16, 2020, 10:44:41 AM

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

You do got some point but we know that fundamentals doesnt show up from time to time thats why there are really times that we would really rely into TA's alone.
This is better rather than making up trades without using any analysis neither TA or Funda because that would really be just like simply a gambling.
Dont expect for high precision of success because it will always vary on each trader on how they do decide up into things and we do have different level or learning and skills
thats why when you look to others they do seems profitable even using the same technique or style.

Oasisman

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These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

mersal

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Quote from: crwth on June 17, 2020, 04:07:03 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Of someone is able to predict the market at 100% accuracy then the whole crypto market won't be exists now which means 70% is a good value to learn about chart analysis and other factors like news,crypto events, bearish or bullish price trend and lot others as well.

South Park

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I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!

Trading is one of those things that you need luck, to begin with. Most of the time, depending on your strategy, you could either win or lose on a trade. So that's the reason why there is "Backtesting" involved. If it played out in the past, you could possibly do the same thing, but it's still not a full-fledged outcome where your winning percent is the same. I think you could check it in the long run too.

No matter how much you are good at charting, it still boils down to the point where you cannot accurately predict the possible price trend, just like human behaviors.

One of the problems with many traders is that they want a trading system that is highly accurate and that is very difficult to achieve, it seems traders cannot simply accept that they are going to be wrong on their predictions and worry more about that than about their stated goal of making money from the markets.

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Shasha80

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Of course, trading is required to do fundamental and technical analysts, even though it only predicts a market of around 70%.
For me it is enough to make decisions in trading, the rest depends on instinct and luck. That's why crypto trading is called high risk,
because of its reality we cannot read charts with a percentage of 100% accuracy. Even professional traders often suffer losses,
that's because no one can be 100% accurate when analyzing a trading chart.

el kaka22

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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games

I have been trying to learn more technical analysis and I have studied indicators a lot, not just here but I would also like to make some forex trading as well since it looked so much fun. On contrary to popular moving from forex to crypto I would be moving from crypto to forex (not leaving crypto, just adding forex on it).

However on all my training I have done the paper trading method that was suggested, as in check something and see if there is any moment to buy or sell and when you hit that just write it on piece of paper like you would do a trade and when it reaches the other side check what happens. In all my tries I have failed, thank god I was doing paper trading and not real one because I would lost a lot of money. TA looks a bit too confusing for me.

Ann Impas

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Even at 70% you can be called a pro. Because you can't just predict what will happen in the market, how will it react. Even patterns in some cases got denied by the market and goes the other way. But imagine if you have a 100% chance of the market cooperating imagine how much you would earn daily even only with the basic information.

mnporter2001

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Quote from: btccoffee on June 17, 2020, 09:05:58 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

TA will help us trade better in the short term and make profits faster. but if you can combine both FA and TA, the percentage of your winnings will be higher, but even if the probability is 90%, the market will still be able to go back at any time. Therefore, we need to have strict trading experience and capital management plan. Trading without strict capital management is like going to battle without armor. You can succeed in many transactions but only 1 failure can take away all your previous success.

nelson4lov

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I've read through all replies and I've come to the conclusion that:

— Technical analysis with charts is one of many ways to predict market outcome.

– A serious trader shouldn't depend on charts alone. There are other factors that increases the odds of winning our trades.

– Technical analysis is still a useful tool regardless of its shortcomings.

Personally, I'm a big fan of technical analysis with charts. It does more than just showing different lines on a chart. It gives an idea of what the market condition is at any point. That said, It should be noted that TA is just one of many tools in every trader's toolbox.

Yamifoud

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Actually trading chart do around maybe 50% only works because this is just a tools for you to predicts but do not just rely on this tools you have to find some other tools in also like watching some news about the currency you are trading specially other currency like forex and stocks news are more accurate.

In fact, many traders don't rely on it but rather to focus on an actual market event. And one reason why charts aren't a big help for traders is that some things happen before that aren't happening today.

Yeah, this is just a tool to make TA's and so we don't have to get it wrong and misunderstood it uses. That is why we can't simply put blame on these charts of our losses because, in the first place, this thing can't give you a guarantee of returns. And if you keep relying on the chart in trading, you will simply ignore the other tools that are more helpful than this https://digitexfutures.com/blog/5-killer-cryptocurrency-trading-tools-have/.

beerlover

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This is a lifelong battle between people who do TA and people who do not do TA and each of them calls each other names. I am here to tell both sides that they are both right about what they are thinking. Yes TA is not a solution and yes just by looking at charts you can't make a profit, there is no way that would work because if it worked people would just do TA and make profit constantly without ever losing money in their life.

However TA is not futile neither, without TA you have no idea what the direction of crypto is and that is why you should do TA to have a base to work with. What the true method should be is to do TA but not trade just because of that, just use the TA you do as a base and build on top of that with every other research you can make on the coin.

btccoffee

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Actually trading chart do around maybe 50% only works because this is just a tools for you to predicts but do not just rely on this tools you have to find some other tools in also like watching some news about the currency you are trading specially other currency like forex and stocks news are more accurate.

Harlot

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You can't really put a success rate on technical analysis since everything can go in the opposite direction even if you are 100% sure of your analysis. I've seen this in a lot of time both in my personal trading and the analysis of other people where they go the complete opposite of their predicted move, that's why for any trader that is prepared they always have an exit strategy where they can just jump out of a trader when their analysis fails. Simply there is still no guarantee that you will win every trade just because you know technical analysis you still have to plan your entry and exit everytime.

Ridwan Fauzi

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Buy the rumors and sell on the news, that is something that I followed so far. I just come to entry when there is a good rumors come and that's fine if the information just mentioned bitcoin only noy crypto currency as a whole. Because in my experience as long as the good news come for bitcoin and we will see most altcoin market will follow it. Yeah, that is my benchmark to do day trading or swing trading, buy a bitcoin or some altcoin and let them increase in a few days and I'll back soon to take my profit. Actually I'm not a good man to make technical analyst but so far I still get a profit by doing that.

crwth

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Trading is one of those things that you need luck, to begin with. Most of the time, depending on your strategy, you could either win or lose on a trade. So that's the reason why there is "Backtesting" involved. If it played out in the past, you could possibly do the same thing, but it's still not a full-fledged outcome where your winning percent is the same. I think you could check it in the long run too.

No matter how much you are good at charting, it still boils down to the point where you cannot accurately predict the possible price trend, just like human behaviors.

Blue_oxen

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on June 16, 2020, 05:49:04 PM

Quote from: Kelvinid on June 16, 2020, 05:42:20 PM

~snip~
Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

^ Definitely right and a perfect answer. Charts are just an indicator where you can use also as a reference in making TA. But this does not mean will give correct speculation that results in 100% in predicting the price. A lot of traders using this, but you cannot rely on this tool because we know that the trading chart result will not repeatedly have results. There are certain tools that you can use if making TA not only the chat, probably news is also the best alternative in making TA. Nevertheless, the market will remain unpredictable.

Agree! The market is unpredictable. However, the charts are the best indicator that we have to kind of predict what's going on in the market. It's better to know something than nothing. Chart analyzing skills are still critical to traders. Traders who know chart analyzing are more likely to earn profits and avoid losing money than others!

DoublerHunter

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Quote from: Kelvinid on June 16, 2020, 05:42:20 PM

~snip~
Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

^ Definitely right and a perfect answer. Charts are just an indicator where you can use also as a reference in making TA. But this does not mean will give correct speculation that results in 100% in predicting the price. A lot of traders using this, but you cannot rely on this tool because we know that the trading chart result will not repeatedly have results. There are certain tools that you can use if making TA not only the chat, probably news is also the best alternative in making TA. Nevertheless, the market will remain unpredictable.

Kelvinid

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win lambo...

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

TBH, I don't come into trading relying upon with charts. We know the situation already and the market will change often times that people can't predict it. Charts are only showing clearly in past events but not for the incoming, only just pure speculation which is actually out from reality. If you come into trading and relying on this, you can't expect passive trades but instead, it brings your trades at high risk of losing.

Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

rathaha10

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While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Personally i believe a lot of factors contributes greatly to price movement of cryptocurrency with the major factor being the force of demand and supply, they're are quite some experts who trade with accurate predictions by reading the charts at different level but these sets of people are very few. And even after having a full grasp of the chart, other factors like development news, partnerships, more prominent listings can still come in play that to alter the price movement inturn making chart analysis fails often at times and that's why there's a saying that analysis can only take you so far in trader, after that you'll have to take a few leaps of faiths

LbtalkL

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Those TA and charts, are just guide for you to make your decision and it is not really guaranteed to be correct all the time. Yes, it helps sometimes but some traders are just only basing only on news. Even the chart is bullish but it suddenly got bad news with facts, for sure that particular coin will go down. That is what I have observed in the past few years.

sheenshane

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Isn't 100% that gives an accurate answer, but at least you have an indicator when you're building your TA and FA. This is might your tool is solving your analysis in trading because in analysis, IMO, it starts with fundamental and next to your technical analysis.

No one will give accurate results in any analysis because the market is unpredictable. Relevant news will somehow give help in having analysis but the problem is not all are relevant news especially those aren't trusted news sites.

South Park

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I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

FanEagle

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There cannot be anything to make you sure about 100% accurate of future movements. This is because, we are all predicting the future of market based on past movements but future is simply influenced by many other factors and not just limited to past. So, there cannot be any tool/chart available to get you 100% accurate predictions.

Moreover most tools and charts are known for lagging in providing any clear signal. It means they may show you just what happened and you need to interpret what is going to happen which cannot be accurate all the times because it would be just a guess work but based on past things (and not purely 100% guess work). Also, I have seen some advanced tools are "overwriting", it means for example will show you buy signal at $10100 levels but markets is trading at $10400 levels (I tried to wait to buy at $10100 but it showed target reached at $10800).

Oasisman

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Quote from: Ucy on June 12, 2020, 05:54:40 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Charts is irrelevant to the price movement, and it's only pure predictions base on the chart patterns.
70% seems a bit higher percentage.
You have to put this always in your mind. No successful trader would ever disclose essential information on how you trade with a minimal rate of lossing funds.
These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

maydna

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70% is enough to decide what to do with the current market, so you will know what happens to the market. That is why we need to use other things to analyze the market before we do something. You can use the news to know what is going on with the market, besides using the chart to analyze, so you can predict what will happen next. But sometimes, your predicting can be wrong if the market changes the direction, making you apply another strategy based on the current market situation.

But we cannot accurately predict the market because the crypto market is hard to analyze based on the chart, the news, or the order. And sometimes, the market will move or not move to one point, so you need to have another strategy, and you can apply the other strategy if the market starts to move.

Hippocrypto

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Ofcourse, it is hard to know everything. I prefer developing strategies that work for me and I stick with them... whether they're strategies for fundamental or technical analysis.
And the strategies don't work 100%(probably from 40—50% up)

Having many strategies will always work but you should choose exclusively the best one that you'll prefer to be effective. Without plans according to each goals, I don't think success will follow in the end. However, starting small capital even if 10-20% can be better and sufficient.

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: ryzaadit on June 12, 2020, 01:10:25 PM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I dont know on where you do get that 70% when it comes to charting success chance? Its true that theres no such thing to be in precise yet we know that that crypto market can fucked you up big time no matter
how good your technical/chart analysis.

This is why traders would really mixed up fundamentals/news with it but to expect that not all the time we do able to hear out news or events that to happen into this space thats why majority would really end up
on TA for such moment.

Dont expect for 100% because its impossible for it to happen and even we do talk in Forex/stocks , its impossible. How much more in crypto market?

SlimShadyMmp

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At 70% I will say that's really overwhelming I mean if it works out then there wont be loss and bearish and all those things because you can perfectly predict the market Truth is never seem like that, other forces outside the market like news and stuffs can generally affect how the events turn Not everyday is a win That's called life

Ryker1

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Yes both.

Cause for me, only using a FA would make the percentage analysis only 50%. We need TA to confirmation the FA analysis did the one of the sources we used for FA could be reacted to the price or not. That's why FA/TA always has some connection 70-80% percentage successful analysis, other 30% percentage the reason cause nobody have ability to always predict with a correct analysis no matter how good you are we can make a mistake.

Well, I agree on this. Joining forces of your technical and fundamental analysis will give perhaps near to accurate result.
I did not say it is a fixed word of accurate result because I know no one will perfectly predict the market price and for sure it is not giving 100% sure result even how good you are in flattening of chart price.

Indeed, it is all matters about speculations in the market. If you are willing to risk your money just make it sure only can afford to lose.

ryzaadit

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Yes both.

Cause for me, only using a FA would make the percentage analysis only 50%. We need TA to confirmation the FA analysis did the one of the sources we used for FA could be reacted to the price or not. That's why FA/TA always has some connection 70-80% percentage successful analysis, other 30% percentage the reason cause nobody have ability to always predict with a correct analysis no matter how good you are we can make a mistake.

South Park

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I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

That should be pretty obvious, it is impossible that the market is going to move exactly as you predict every single time, there are simply too many factors to consider and if anything I still consider an accuracy of 70% to be very high, but I suppose it can be done if you are very talented at trading, however expecting a very high accuracy in your trades is probably one of the biggest mistakes that newbies make, they think they're going to win every single trade and when they don't they realize that their money management skills are weak and they lose a lot more money than what they thought, and then they take a risk that is too high on their next trades losing even more money in the process.

pragna

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While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

If you are a real trader 70% is enough i think. Because everything does not go accurate as they also give you result of 70% by different kinds of indicator. So some indicator may not work actual way so rest 30% is your assumptions that can make you successful.

Be a lucky.

palle11

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100% accuracy in trade is a big profit margin to an account, but if you are able to get a 70% that is fantastic even in physical business. In trading, you don't estimate for 100% because if you do, market might take a turn around before it gets to such high profit. Is better a 50% and above.

Ucy

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Compare rates on different exchanges & swap.

Ofcourse, it is hard to know everything. I prefer developing strategies that work for me and I stick with them... whether they're strategies for fundamental or technical analysis.
And the strategies don't work 100%(probably from 40—50% up)

GreatArkansas

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Technical analysis is still can't 70% for me. It's difficult, even some traders do lost sometimes and their charts become invalidate. That's why there is always a stop loss when we do trade incase our chart will fail, 70% is no for me.
But even we can't do 70%, we still able maximize it by minimizing the risk.

Gozie51

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