Topic: A year from now (2013/04/15) (Read 8259 times)

Quote from: oakpacific on April 05, 2013, 06:02:55 AM

The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.

Unless of course you truly believe your own predictions, sell everything at $14 and sit with open orders at $5 for a year like a complete moron.

Or even worse, goes all in short bitcoins at $3 on Bitcoinica, then....

then first loses everything while shorting, takes a mortgage-backed loan to go leveraged long on bitcoin, and then bitcoinica runs with the money...

I think we figured out how perma-bears are born. When you live under the bridge, doom and gloom is all you see

Hmmm...guess we all have buried the word "Zhoutonged" somewhere in our memory lane. Wink

piramida

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Quote from: piramida on April 05, 2013, 06:01:01 AM

Quote from: piramida on April 05, 2013, 06:01:01 AM

The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.

Unless of course you truly believe your own predictions, sell everything at $14 and sit with open orders at $5 for a year like a complete moron.

Or even worse, goes all in short bitcoins at $3 on Bitcoinica, then....

then first loses everything while shorting, takes a mortgage-backed loan to go leveraged long on bitcoin, and then bitcoinica runs with the money...

I think we figured out how perma-bears are born. When you live under the bridge, doom and gloom is all you see

oakpacific

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The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.

Unless of course you truly believe your own predictions, sell everything at $14 and sit with open orders at $5 for a year like a complete moron.

Or even worse, goes all in short bitcoins at $3 on Bitcoinica, then....

piramida

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Quote from: simonk83 on April 04, 2013, 11:51:40 PM

The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.

Unless of course you truly believe your own predictions, sell everything at $14 and sit with open orders at $5 for a year like a complete moron.

myrkul

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FIAT LIBERTAS RVAT CAELVM

Good old Proudhon Cheesy

The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.

simonk83

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Good old Proudhon Cheesy

Arzack

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Fuck, i was reading this thread like the OP was made in 2013.

mccorvic

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Now guys, it's entirely possible that proudhon has 2 million BTC stashed away and is prepared to dump them all just to claim victory Tongue

Adrian-x

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I'll take a random unsupported guess based on previous inaccuracies.

$1500 on April 5th 2014

Adrian-x

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LOL
So I average the predictions, some interpretation was used:
Double digest = $10
Single digests = $5
Pushing past = +1
Between X and Y = average of X and Y.

The Average price predictions a year ago was: $14.54 off by a whole decimal place.

Calling for more prediction a year from today:

Tirapon

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Thank you Piramida for digging this up, made me laugh! Grin

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Quote from: Elwar on April 04, 2013, 08:15:11 PM

Quote from: proudhon on April 14, 2012, 11:12:02 PM

I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the single digits. I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread. I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now. In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the next bitcoin bubble. My the odds be ever in my favor.

Is that single digits in mBTC?

lol!

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Quote from: proudhon on April 14, 2012, 11:12:02 PM

I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the single digits. I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread. I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now. In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the next bitcoin bubble. My the odds be ever in my favor.

Is that single digits in mBTC?

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

OP being so wrong as he is really mean "triple digits".

piramida

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Quote from: Tomatocage on March 06, 2013, 12:05:57 PM

The year+ predictions are the only ones worth speculating on. I mean when BTC is at $49 and you start a thread "predicting" that it will hit $50 within the week, that's pretty lame.

But you can see that predicting bitcoin price in a year is a silly idea too

35 was the bravest guess, I must say pretty close and bold when everybody was thinking about a 5-15 range...

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brb keeping up with the Kardashians

The year+ predictions are the only ones worth speculating on. I mean when BTC is at $49 and you start a thread "predicting" that it will hit $50 within the week, that's pretty lame.

piramida

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Necrodigging this topic for some laughs. Lots of nice predictions in here

Enjoy.

R-

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Pasta

Hahahaha ^

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Quote from: Wekkel on April 18, 2012, 04:56:28 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 18, 2012, 08:39:11 AM

The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat.

So does your Windows computer shop. What's your point here?

Frankly, I don't care whether someone wants to use fiat money alongside other (private) alternatives. The trend to FPGAs is simply market mechanics. I wish the gamblers with their FPGA-farms good luck and am happy to see my future BTC payments processed by the grace of FPGA-farms.

It's all connected.

NO

This is BITCOIN

Wekkel

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yes

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 18, 2012, 08:39:11 AM

The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat.

So does your Windows computer shop. What's your point here?

Frankly, I don't care whether someone wants to use fiat money alongside other (private) alternatives. The trend to FPGAs is simply market mechanics. I wish the gamblers with their FPGA-farms good luck and am happy to see my future BTC payments processed by the grace of FPGA-farms.

It's all connected.

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Quote from: wareen on April 18, 2012, 02:53:12 PM

Quote from: disclaimer201 on April 18, 2012, 09:57:01 AM

I also think there is substantial risk in buying FPGAs since they have close to 0 resell value the moment that Asic miners start to show up on scale.

IMHO the risk with ASICs is far more substantial. FPGAs can easily be used for other purposes and their resell value will not be anywhere near 0, regardless of what happens with Bitcoin. There's plenty of hobbyists playing with FPGAs for all kinds of purposes and especially a medium sized cluster of them is a rather attractive piece of equipment.
With ASICs on the other hand you have the high risk of losing all your investment should Bitcoin have to upgrade its hashing routines due to advances in cryptoanalysis. I'd be wary to bet a million on SHA256 staying secure enough for another decade and that's exactly what ASIC early adopters would be doing.

Both are risky for different reasons, to different degrees. If Asics do show up try to find a hobbiest to take your then unprofitable mini rig. Esp. if there are thousands of users to offer fpgas to them suddenly. But those people who made profits with their GPUs are likely to take that risk. The Asic guys must be close to crazy imo for investing so much cash into something so fundamentally risky. In fact, so risky that I'd hold them to be bad businessmen to take the risks. That's probably why they want the community to cover their risk in offering shares. Now, factor in greed, and it's probably gonna happen anyway. The question remains if and which of those risks may come true and who will lose in the end. Again, if I want to go gambling, I choose a Casino. I don't think this has anything to do with real business and acceptable risk.

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Quote from: disclaimer201 on April 18, 2012, 09:57:01 AM

I also think there is substantial risk in buying FPGAs since they have close to 0 resell value the moment that Asic miners start to show up on scale.

IMHO the risk with ASICs is far more substantial. FPGAs can easily be used for other purposes and their resell value will not be anywhere near 0, regardless of what happens with Bitcoin. There's plenty of hobbyists playing with FPGAs for all kinds of purposes and especially a medium sized cluster of them is a rather attractive piece of equipment.
With ASICs on the other hand you have the high risk of losing all your investment should Bitcoin have to upgrade its hashing routines due to advances in cryptoanalysis. I'd be wary to bet a million on SHA256 staying secure enough for another decade and that's exactly what ASIC early adopters would be doing.

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Quote from: disclaimer201 on April 18, 2012, 09:57:01 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 18, 2012, 08:39:11 AM

The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat. This forces existing miner who wanna upgrade to sell their old equipment for fiat which would otherwise flow back into the bitcoin economy.
But the longer trend gives hope, since the Spartan 6 LX150 has been established as 'the chip' for open source mining platforms it will get synergistic improvement from various projects and possible market leverage in buying the chips in the future.
This will strengthen the community and provide stable growth if people realize they will be better up with open products with community involvement and room to improvement than proprietary crap.

Agreed. I also think there is substantial risk in buying FPGAs since they have close to 0 resell value the moment that Asic miners start to show up on scale. This may already happen this summer, possibly long before anyone will have had the chance to pay off their FPGA rig.
So I think a lot of people will drop out and won't upgrade to FPGAs and buy coins instead. For many, mining wasn't really that cool of a deal considering the mini margin and the many hours put into rig building, maintainance and forum watching for possible lose all money risks.
Sure, it's fun. But honestly, it was'nt really such a great business model. The risks are just too great. And what ARE you gonna do with FPGAs if "shit starts hitting the fan"? Just wishing your lost investment away won't do the trick. Unless you are in denial. This may be a wide spread issue around Bitcoin entrepreneurs.

Denial is why I keep living.

Cheesy

disclaimer201

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 18, 2012, 08:39:11 AM

The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat. This forces existing miner who wanna upgrade to sell their old equipment for fiat which would otherwise flow back into the bitcoin economy.
But the longer trend gives hope, since the Spartan 6 LX150 has been established as 'the chip' for open source mining platforms it will get synergistic improvement from various projects and possible market leverage in buying the chips in the future.
This will strengthen the community and provide stable growth if people realize they will be better up with open products with community involvement and room to improvement than proprietary crap.

Agreed. I also think there is substantial risk in buying FPGAs since they have close to 0 resell value the moment that Asic miners start to show up on scale. This may already happen this summer, possibly long before anyone will have had the chance to pay off their FPGA rig.
So I think a lot of people will drop out and won't upgrade to FPGAs and buy coins instead. For many, mining wasn't really that cool of a deal considering the mini margin and the many hours put into rig building, maintainance and forum watching for possible lose all money risks.
Sure, it's fun. But honestly, it was'nt really such a great business model. The risks are just too great. And what ARE you gonna do with FPGAs if "shit starts hitting the fan"? Just wishing your lost investment away won't do the trick. Unless you are in denial. This may be a wide spread issue around Bitcoin entrepreneurs.

ElectricMucus

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The problem with FPGAs is the recent trend to proprietary products. That is something which I would call antisocial greed. They have no interest in bitcoin and are only selling products for fiat. This forces existing miner who wanna upgrade to sell their old equipment for fiat which would otherwise flow back into the bitcoin economy.
But the longer trend gives hope, since the Spartan 6 LX150 has been established as 'the chip' for open source mining platforms it will get synergistic improvement from various projects and possible market leverage in buying the chips in the future.
This will strengthen the community and provide stable growth if people realize they will be better up with open products with community involvement and room to improvement than proprietary crap.

Technomage

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The most important thing to understand about future mining is that it's not a bad thing that most GPU miners need to quit. Only those with fixed electricity costs or added benefits (such as heating) will be able to continue. FPGA is the future but that is not a bad thing. FPGA's are great, GPU mining sucks ass compared to that. I've done some mining and I speak from experience that GPU rigs are a fucking pain in the ass. It's absolutely wonderful that we have FPGA's, they are so convenient that at least convenience will not be slowing down mining investments (which it certainly does, to an extent, with GPU mining).

We are already well beyond the times when mining is having a gpu on your desktop PC and you just mine with it. More and more mining is done by either semi-professional multirig operations (1-20 rigs) or big time mining operations (hundreds of rigs). This is the natural development of mining and there is nothing wrong with it. Regular people will buy bitcoins, not mine them. Mining is for those who see it either as a business or a hobby or something in between (which is an increasing portion of miners).

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Quote from: darkice on April 18, 2012, 06:49:16 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 17, 2012, 02:16:38 PM

Quote from: proudhon on April 17, 2012, 10:51:54 AM

Quote from: darkice on April 18, 2012, 06:49:16 AM

I think btc price will definitely rise after december and demand might just push it above 20 in february or so, It helps when your wife is an economist

Why should that be the case? It might happen, but there are reasons to think the price won't go up after the reward halving.

miners have little impact on the market right now, they will have half that impact after the reward halving. that is all

Supply of fresh btc to the market will be lowered, miners, who pay electricity will try to compensate their lowered income by raising the price, speculators and outsiders will think this price bump is the sign they were waiting to buy before another 30$ peak so people will buy and hold to their btc as everybody who has btc will be hoping btc will rise more. Expectations may cause short term jumps, total market is shallow (30-40 million ?) .

but of course it's impossible to predict future, mtgox might get stomped upon by some government or banks in the meantime so trust in bitcoin might go down with the price, or someone might decide to attack Iran and gold, oil will jump and everyone may forget about bitcoin for a while, aliens might invade earth and vaporize our rigs , some huge vendor might start to accept bitcoin, then it will go up. If nothing weird happens it will go up I think

I just posted about this in another thread, but I'll post it here too. The problem is if the price doesn't immediately and sufficiently go up after the block reward halving. If it does not, then less efficient miners' profits will be immediately cut in half, making many of them unprofitable. This will probably compel lots of miners in that category to finally drop out. This will leave only the more efficient miners - e.g. FPGA miners - as they can tolerate such a production increase as their operating costs are much less. The remaining efficient miners toleration of reduced profits could lead to competition for those profits, effectively decreasing the price.

I think there's a good chance the price does not immediately and sufficiently go up after the block reward halving because I think there's a good chance people will attempt to price a potential price increase in ahead of time, and if enough people with enough market influence price it in ahead of time, it won't happen at the time.

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Bit-pay isn't US only. Check again. In fact, they will have way more presence in Europe this year.

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Supply of fresh btc to the market will be lowered, miners, who pay electricity will try to compensate their lowered income by raising the price, speculators and outsiders will think this price bump is the sign they were waiting to buy before another 30$ peak so people will buy and hold to their btc as everybody who has btc will be hoping btc will rise more. Expectations may cause short term jumps, total market is shallow (30-40 million ?) .

Or, miners running a loss will leave, and difficulty will adjust as such Tongue

At a guess for this time next year, I'd say $7-10, assuming there's not another huge disaster like the mtgox hack.

At the end of the day, bitcoin has some very popular uses (money laundering, contraband, tax evasion, sending money overseas for no fee, sales without risking chargebacks) and I think services like bit-pay have a very promising future.
What we need to do is make it easier for merchants to accept bitcoin payments and get paid in the currency of their choice. Bit-pay is good, but it's still US-only (or was the last time I looked).

darkice

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Quote from: adamstgBit on April 17, 2012, 02:16:38 PM

Quote from: proudhon on April 17, 2012, 10:51:54 AM

I think btc price will definitely rise after december and demand might just push it above 20 in february or so, It helps when your wife is an economist

Why should that be the case? It might happen, but there are reasons to think the price won't go up after the reward halving.

miners have little impact on the market right now, they will have half that impact after the reward halving. that is all

Supply of fresh btc to the market will be lowered, miners, who pay electricity will try to compensate their lowered income by raising the price, speculators and outsiders will think this price bump is the sign they were waiting to buy before another 30$ peak so people will buy and hold to their btc as everybody who has btc will be hoping btc will rise more. Expectations may cause short term jumps, total market is shallow (30-40 million ?) .

but of course it's impossible to predict future, mtgox might get stomped upon by some government or banks in the meantime so trust in bitcoin might go down with the price, or someone might decide to attack Iran and gold, oil will jump and everyone may forget about bitcoin for a while, aliens might invade earth and vaporize our rigs , some huge vendor might start to accept bitcoin, then it will go up. If nothing weird happens it will go up I think

Spekulatius

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Quote from: evoorhees on April 17, 2012, 02:56:20 PM

I hear a lot about "acceptance bitcoin." But I think it has already taken place. I think the price will vary throughout the year. In the range of $ 3 ... 8 (if it will not "blast" advertising and "Google has invested in the project") Here's my prediction. The best way for the development (successful) of the project.

i let this in here

Is that Daniel Radcliffe?

server

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1 BTC =1 BTC

I predict $15-$35 a year from now.

$10+ for sure.

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I predict $15-$35 a year from now.

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Quote from: proudhon on April 17, 2012, 10:51:54 AM

I think btc price will definitely rise after december and demand might just push it above 20 in february or so, It helps when your wife is an economist

Why should that be the case? It might happen, but there are reasons to think the price won't go up after the reward halving.

miners have little impact on the market right now, they will have half that impact after the reward halving. that is all

proudhon

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 15, 2012, 12:43:23 PM

I think btc price will definitely rise after december and demand might just push it above 20 in february or so, It helps when your wife is an economist

Why should that be the case? It might happen, but there are reasons to think the price won't go up after the reward halving.

disclaimer201

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Quote from: teflone on April 15, 2012, 12:16:20 PM

I hear a lot about "acceptance bitcoin." But I think it has already taken place. I think the price will vary throughout the year. In the range of $ 3 ... 8 (if it will not "blast" advertising and "Google has invested in the project") Here's my prediction. The best way for the development (successful) of the project.

i let this in here

Battlefield earth there needs a haircut... god...

First you tell us you work for a Fortune 500 co. and now you're freaked out by long hair ?

The picture is getting clearer by the minute Grin

FYI my hair are almost as long as that, should I dread them to fit your stereotypes better?

Just wash it once a week maybe? So people will be less afraid of getting lice.

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I think btc price will definitely rise after december and demand might just push it above 20 in february or so, It helps when your wife is an economist

ElectricMucus

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Can you guys please stop quoting him?
kthx

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Quote from: Cosbycoin on April 16, 2012, 08:07:41 PM

Quote from: S3052 on April 15, 2012, 04:17:00 AM

it is difficult to predict timings, but in terms of price, I predict bitcoin will have exceeded 32 $ within the next 12 months.

What are you basing this prediction on?

wave 1 + fibo

Not impressed.

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Quote from: S3052 on April 15, 2012, 04:17:00 AM

it is difficult to predict timings, but in terms of price, I predict bitcoin will have exceeded 32 $ within the next 12 months.

What are you basing this prediction on?

FreeMoney

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Strength in numbers

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 15, 2012, 03:24:39 PM

Positive brings Positive.

Hell yeah.

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 15, 2012, 03:24:39 PM

Stop thinking what bitcoin can do for you, instead think what you can do for bitcion. Cheesy

That's kind of a false dichotomy. If you figure out how Bitcoin can help you then you will do much better and have much more to offer. If you pour yourself into 'the good of Bitcoin" you'll run out eventually even if you are totally self-sacrificing. Profit is sustainable, loss is not.

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long term I'm bullish, as is everyone else here it would seem to be

but 1 years isn't long term.

I think this year we wont be seeing any crazy bubbles, but we will see a slow and very much not steady rise, i would say the best strategy would be to support bitcions by using it. play games where the bitcoin has become part of it's economy. I know diablo3 will play a key role in bringing bitcoin to gamers (because in hardcore mode their will not be an auction house for real money). come Xmas time, buy gifts using bitcoin. If you smoke then considered saving money by buying European cigarettes for bitcoin.

Positive brings Positive.
Stop thinking what bitcoin can do for you, instead think what you can do for bitcion. Cheesy

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I predict double digits by this time next year.

A few reasons:
The reward getting cut in half.
The new tools and enhancements to existing ones that will be developed.
The new merchants that start accepting bitcoin.
The new people that haven't been exposed to bitcoins getting involved.

bulanula

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I am guessing surely over $10 by this time next year.

$10 is almost a given, I think, after the reward drop in December.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Technomage on April 15, 2012, 01:24:26 PM

Double digits for sure. I'll guess $16.

Quote from: bitcoinBull on April 15, 2012, 11:56:47 AM

double digits. prediction enshrined.

the usual suspects.
you care to explain yourself?

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Double digits for sure. I'll guess $16.

dopamine

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Double digit for sure when you start to see alot more places accepting bitcoins, I don't mind the single digit so I can accumulate alot more and be part of the 1%, If I can easily pay all my bills using my bitcoins then I can say that bitcoins will be worth over 20. So developers make me a debit card that will do that and let the rally begin

FreeMoney

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Quote from: proudhon on April 14, 2012, 11:12:02 PM

I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the single digits. I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread. I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now. In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the next bitcoin bubble. My the odds be ever in my favor.

I hope someone digs it up too.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: teflone on April 15, 2012, 12:16:20 PM

I hear a lot about "acceptance bitcoin." But I think it has already taken place. I think the price will vary throughout the year. In the range of $ 3 ... 8 (if it will not "blast" advertising and "Google has invested in the project") Here's my prediction. The best way for the development (successful) of the project.

i let this in here

Battlefield earth there needs a haircut... god...

First you tell us you work for a Fortune 500 co. and now you're freaked out by long hair ?

The picture is getting clearer by the minute Grin

FYI my hair are almost as long as that, should I dread them to fit your stereotypes better?

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You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB