Topic: Adam Back's Bullish Bet (Read 407 times)

I think it's quite important to think that this is just one persons idea, and just because he is doing something doesn't mean that he will be right. Think about it this way, if I did make a big bet, would you also go in just because I did it? Then you should be considering it in the same way for this dude, sure he is richer and basically known enough to make a news about it, but it's still the same idea. It's just some random guy who makes a bet.

I mean I do the same thing as well and I think it should be considering the situation like we are just buying bitcoin, doesn't matter if he does it or not. I have been buying for years before he did this and I will continue to do so for a long time as well after this news too.

It is likely going up forever OGNasty.., and surely having some corrections along the way seems to be part of that going up forever process.

I am already on the record for my skepticism of Adam's being able to win his bet, and surely his odds for $100k would be greater on a longer time horizon, and surely with any amount of "going up" we surely want to be at least keeping even with, if not outpacing the rate in which the dollar is devaluing.. but also it would also be preferable for our lillie fiend to be able to outperform various other assets too... talking about traditional asset classes like, stocks, property, bonds and commodities, and not referring to shitcoins because:
1) who cares about shitcoins
and
2) shitcoins are already correlated to BTC's performance and/or dependent upon BTC's performance for them to even have a chance of keeping up with bitcoin or having short time periods of over-performing bitcoin.

Starting to seem like Adam Back is trying to join his buddy Samson Mow in becoming a top indicator. My advice, whenever you see a Blockstream employee give you trading advice on Bitcoin, do the opposite.  Remember the “Bitcoin is going up forever” podcast at the peak of the last hype cycle? Take notes for when you need to find an indicator.

I admire this man's career. He is a good example of a successful man who has educated himself and reached advanced stages of success.

As for Adam Back's expectations about the arrival of the Bitcoin price around 100K by the end of March 2024, I see it as very reasonable and logical. This man certainly knows what he is saying and he is present in the market and knows the small details that can be hidden from the average trader.

Although many analysts also agree with Adam Back on the same number, this man's words still have a special impact.

A hype predictions can sure attract beginners but for use who understand the trend of the market, we know that its unrealistic. Though of course that’s the main target but if you’ll see the market trend right now, you’ll see a sideways trend which is still a big challenge for BTC to go beyond that. If you are looking for a more realistic predictions, then have your own analysis that works for your own timeline.

Events dont always appear on cue, I dont get why he presumes it has to go that way.  A bullish bias even if correct doesnt deliver any certain price.   It can just be the underlying bullish demand or market for an asset maintains a flat price in contrast to external negatives and pressures like a higher dollar index value etc.
   If I bet on my house price and my nations currency somehow rises 10% in that year with my house price staying flat; my idea of a bullish bet would be wrong because I tied myself to a nominal price bet even though in real value terms the currency (and so house value) rose 10%.   Its too much expectation, life isnt nice and neat like this unfortunately.
   Plus I just think he is wrong anyway, if I am remembering right the halvening effect is most powerful in its accumulative difference after the event.   When we talk about upto halvening occurring, this is speculative price action.  Even if we have a certain event, the price action meta is rumor before the event.
   We all know how flaky speculation can be, dont bet on this tbh.   Should have asked me  , I would have advised him better against such a bet without needing to disagree especially.  I think alot of people could have stressed these points to him, its true across multiple markets that prices are fractional or like an equation in balance not a singular number to bet on.   Some ideas are flawed from the start, I hope its just a fun bet thing.

I fixed your above-referenced to the article that you found.

And, you do not have to read an article to figure out where the BTC price has been, especially since there are all kinds of better information sources that show BTC price charts out there, and many charts will both show you live representations of where the BTC price is within a context that you can frequently customize how you are viewing the price chart information or the charts might give you abilities to go back in time and to highlight certain price performance areas of the chart.

I can hardly appreciate why anyone would give much of any shits regarding what the BTC price has been doing in the past 5 days - as you mentioned August 7th, which is just a ridiculous analysis - even if you say that you are getting that framing of the matter from the article, but if you are repeating bullshit from an article and not being critical of that same bullshit, then you are guilty of either spreading or believing the bullshit that you are repeating.

We can go back to March and see that the BTC price has largely been between $25k and $32k, and we have to go back to June of last year before we see BTC prices higher than $32k.. and who even knows the extent to which any of that would be relevant in terms of suggesting whether the BTC price might break out above $32k prior to the 2024 halvening.. or even if the odds for breaking upwardly are decently well, there are still likely resistance points before the BTC prices might hit $100k or above, which is what would be required for Adam to win his bet.

I don't give too many shits about charts, but they still can show us various historical price locations, and surely we can get some senses from history and context as well in terms of how much momentum allow for the BTC price to be able to keep going in one direction or another once it starts, and I am not even sure if $32k would necessarily be a resistance point, even though sure, BTC prices have not been above it for 14 months, yet surely there likely would at minimum be some kind of resistance between $32k and $40k-ish.. and there may well also be some kind of resistance point within about 20%-ish of the previous ATH.. and then perhaps even a 3rd resistance point before even reaching $100k. 

I am not sure if there would be any science to it, even though surely momentum is a factor and looking at historical examples, we can see how momentum can sometimes overcome resistance points, and even behind the scenes there can be some bull whales (in the event that retail is not jumping in) who may well be able to overcome the bear whales, and it is not even that we can know the extent to which bear whales might both have ammunition and are willing to spend it to avoid getting reckt, including their sometimes abilities to utilize fiat financial tools to attempt to get their way, but their reckening could get worse if they end up running out of resources and not being able to stop the upward movement/momentum.


Maybe I am spouting out technicalities, but I don't see bitcoin prices having been in that price range for more than 90 days.

I see about mid-late June (which is less than 2 months), BTC prices (Bitstamp) broke up from $24,756 and largely got within a $28,574 to $31,818 range since that date.. and yeah sure it is a technicality that you happened to shave more than a couple of thousand from the price range that you provided and also you added well over a month to the timeline that you say that we have been there.  If we go back 90 days, then we are in early to mid-May, and that seems to be a bit of a different story in terms of where we were at then (in the mid-$26ks).. but still hardly seeming to be a relevant timeline in terms of price movement and/or consolidation points, but we did get a break up in the BTC price in mid-March (around 150 days ago - or 5 months) in which we could factually accurately assert that BTC prices have been between $24,756 and $31,818.. and sure maybe we could round off those numbers to make it easier to read and maybe even taking out the spikes.. but still your framing of 90 days and even framing of a $29k to $30k price seems inaccurate and even a bit misleading, even if you might not have had intended it to be... even though probably your overall point regarding the odds being against Adam in his bet are likely fair.

Adams is going overly overboard in his predictions of the possibilities of Bitcoin  to get to 100k which is above 60% risk cances of Bitcoin to reach such price and his chances are far from winning because Bitcoin may not likely reach such an amount before the halven which will happen in a few months  less than 8 months from now, although Bitcoin have the possibilities of reaching such price in a couple of months before the scheduled blocksize that cause the halving cycle, but more also we have to dip down into Bitcoin price history and what possibilities amd posible market realities that can work for or against his predictions.

But also we have to consider the amount of time Bitcoin will spend in a sigle price trajectory just like the current Bitcoin price benchmark of between 29-30k price were it has spent more than 90 days already,  this could be a pointer as to what price we should expect before the next halving cycle.

This discussion made to made a research on the Adam and the one I saw is [utl=https://cryptonews.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-adam-backs-bet-2024-halving-whales-confidence-boost-amid-market-turbulence.htm]Adam Back's[/url] who bet on the coming halving and accumulation of bitcoin by whales before the halving took place. And from the article I also saw that the price of bitcoin has been on this $29+k for sometimes now and refused to breakout the line and on the 7th of August, 2023 it break the line to enter $30+k before coming down to it normal price now. And this indication shows that before the next halving bitcoin price will rise up.

I would place a successful outcome for Adam, in terms of his bet to be somewhere in the ballpark of 15% and 20%, which surely are non-zero odds that he could win, yet at the same time, the odds are seemingly against him.  I doubt that his measurements much more positive, even if he did state the reasons that he was making such a bet in which we would presume that he should consider the odds to be greater than 50% that he would win.. . but since the amount is so low, like others mentioned, it could be a bit of a publicity stunt, even though Adam doesn't really seem to be that kind of a guy. 

I'll bet against him. Not because it's impossible, but the chances of that happening are very slim. C'mon, we've got be realistic about stuff like this. I believe even Adam Back knows he can't win that bet but he has other things to gain from that bet. The best is probably just for fun.
Personally, I don't think we'll see Bitcoin at 100k by even the end of 2024. I wish and hope it gets to 100k next month if possible, but it's just not going to happen. We've got to be realistic.

I already have my bet. I HODL.


But there is some historic data to support it. Bitcoin has always found its lowest point during the bear market in the year before the halving. Look at January 2015 and January 2019. The current bear cycle has November 2022, but Bitcoin did not truly start to rise until January 2023.

For economic data, we have seen what "money printer goes BRRRRR" did during 2020. QE might start again early 2024.

Do you want to bet? Such bets are for fun and not a realistic prediction of the Bitcoin price, as there is no historical or economic data to support that.

Search for his name in the forum, and you will find that everyone believes what he says without rethinking.

If he wins this bet, he will be the new "Bitcoin Jesus" in the eyes of some.

I'm under the impression that this could be $1m that they are talking about. Specially for Adam Back, this is just a drop from his millions and I can say that he can afford such bet.


First time to hear that the has considered as Bitcoin Jesus, because we have heard Bitcoin Moises, Lol. For sure, they're going to have some fun on this bet specially that everyone expects a very bullish bitcoin in the next coming months.

But it might be different, because the bet might win.

 


Haha they should highly respect Adam Back not to give him the title "Bitcoin Jesus", which actually, Roger Ver was exposed to be the Bitcoin Judas. A person who merely wanted to hard fork another chain and call it Bitcoin Cash to trick newbies into thinking that it might be the "real Bitcoin" because "white paper". What kind of self-respecting developer would accept such a title?

Considering the stake in the bet, I think it's just that the mentioned person wants to have some fun, because that's what rich people do when they're bored. Therefore, what the aforementioned people are betting on is completely meaningless, the price will be formed by supply and demand anyway - and the only event that can increase the price by more than 300% in such a short period is the approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US, with the condition that BR and all other funds start buying large amounts of BTC for their clients.

I suggest you don't play this game, because as @Tytanowy Janusz wrote this is a win-win situation for only one person and his company, for everyone else it's a complete waste of time.

Is this a million dollars or a million satoshi? If it was a million satoshis, then we are talking about a bet of about $ 300 or, in the worst cases, less than $ 1,500. Do you think that such a bet is something serious?
This was reminded of the crazy bets that John McAfee was making and what's going on here is not that different.

Some tweeters consider Adam Back as the new bitcoin jesus. No one can predict what will happen to the price, but the bet on $100,000 came from historical data saying that after halving it is possible, but the price still needs several months.

Yeah, I do agree that it's definitely possible that it can get to $100k during the next halving and for sure this is want Adam is banking. I think as you have said, this is marketing 101, he has a narrative behind why he wanted to see bitcoin price at $100k so easy bet for him.

And with that, this could be the most watch thread in twitter, both had a lot of followers so we will see who's going to win or if this bet is for real or not. So it's going to be fun to see how everything turns out next year.

Adam Back probably HODLs more than enough Bitcoin to make a 1 BTC bet, but perhaps he doesn't want to convey that unintentionally?

Plus if it's cheap marketing, then you don't believe that Bitcoin will be trading at $100,000 either during the next halving, or at block height 840,000? It's possible if you ask me.

Ya, I’m sure everyone figured it was at least a 1 BTC bet. That’s why the whole situation reeks of cheap marketing. Imagine how much money he would make if BTC went to $100,000…  Things like this make me cringe. Bitcoin shouldn’t need fake promotion to be successful. This is the sort of thing you usually see at market tops.

I read about this earlier in the week. I assumed it was a joke because 1 million sats is $300 currently and if Bitcoin goes to $100000 then it will be $1000.

I think many here assumed it was more of like a $1M bet. So this doesn’t really show much confidence. It’s like betting $1 that Bitcoin will go to $1M next month. Either way was a fun thread to read and was very well engaged.

Perhaps he forgot to add two more zeros in his offer. Haha. Although, he might be right. Because what if the Federal Reserve made the pivot from QT to QE?

There are projections from the more bearish economists illustrating that a recession is inevitable, and the timeline could be late 2023 or early 2024. And because the Federal Reserve has the susceptibility to over-adjust, the first small signs of a recession would probably make the printer go "BRRRR". IF "BRRRR" does indeed happen during March next year, then we have already seen its effects on Bitcoin and other markets during March, 2020. They will SURGE.

I can only be bullish about bitcoin if the halving has already occurred. Since the halving hasn't occurred, I think am less bullish on bitcoin price.  I'll turn bullish on Bitcoin following months after the halving season  that is expected to occur by next year.

Regarding that, I'm trying to determine how realistically Adams projection of $100k before the halving season might be made. Since it is after months of the halving season that Bitcoin tends to soar in price, reaching a new all-time high. I'm not sure how likely it will be that the current state of the crypto market will result in a new ATH being set before the halving season. That looks unrealistic to me, I don't know for others, what they think about Adams prediction

Not with him, but only because of my arbitrary belief in the post-halving cyclical rally, rather than anything else. If global economic conditions weren't so dire, I might fancy a hopeful fling in the 100k direction but I think real-life macro pressures will not help any kind of rally.

Cheap marketing, and looks like it worked.

Curious, but not enough to see myself: did they use conditioned escrow or something for this? That might have been cool.

Not very realistic. It's not impossible for that to happen, but if the pattern of this cycle resembles previous ones in Bitcoin's short history, there is no way the price will surpass the $69K ATH in what's left until halving. Patterns need not repeat themselves indefinitely, however, and this cycle is an example of that, but on a downward trend.

But as mentioned, him betting only $300 is not very bullish.

it's a pity that 99% of youtubers and tiktokers don't create a similar way of thinking

x3 from the current price is not that far away. The flat earth comparison i did in previous post is a bit too strong here, because it's total absurdity, and 3x from the current price on bitcoin is possible. So Adam made this deal in my opinion - "i buy 100k subs for $300 with this action, if it fails, no one will remember it anyway, because it's almost a year from now. And if I succeed, he will get another 100k subs, 300$ and I'll be called an oracle"

He should offer that same bet to users here on the forum. I’d be in for a million satoshi’s.

$100k is a relatively reasonable amount to look forward to after the 2024 halving. I'm sure it will be reached, but it might be sooner if a bitcoin ETF gets approved. I'm not sure $100k will be hit before the halving, but if this bet is about face value after the halving then I'd say it's a reasonable bet. I'm bullish on bitcoin, but $100k won't be reached before the halving and maybe 3-5 after the halving.

It will take considerable time and support from investors for $100k to become a reality, but if a bitcoin ETF is approved then there is a possibility that $100 will be reached sooner than many think.

I agree. A $300 bet for a CEO isn’t bullish at all. It’s almost a bearish signal to be honest. Seems more like throwing $300 out there to get some people talking and possibly buying to follow this bet by a CEO. It doesn’t make sense for him to make this bet anyway. If BTC triples he’ll make hundreds of millions of dollars. This bet is irrelevant.

This is possible, it's just a matter of time though its better not to expect that much because Halving right now might bring a different scenario in the market. I just don't see that price to happen before the halving period, usually the price pump after the halving and it will still need more time before we reached the pump. I'm bullish but being careful with the hype, look at the price trend and have a good timing to enter.

I don't know because everyone can make predictions and post them on social media for people to see. We have nothing to do with people's predictions because we don't know exactly how they came up with that number. It's better if we just skip the predictions or we keep in a special note about all the predictions from people so we can analyze them later.

I am still bullish and feel that the Bitcoin price could be over $100k, but I don't know when that will happen. And I also don't care about other people's predictions because I focus on collecting more Bitcoin now. You should also have the same focus on collecting Bitcoins rather than just reading predictions from other people because that will make you forget to try to collect Bitcoins.

Let that prediction be a prediction, especially since we don't know what will happen in the future or a few months later. We have to try to have many Bitcoins at times like now to get big profits when bull runs occur.

$100,000 is only just over 3 x from the current price, it’s not that unrealistic. I think we will hit $100,000 probably in 2025 but if the raft of spot etf’s get approved then that could see us pump to $100,000 quick enough for AB to win his bet.

I’m thinking he will lose his bet but I wouldn’t he overly surprised if he were to win it. Let’s wait & see what happens.

If it makes me look foolish, even without the bet, I won't do it.

I have no idea why I come across this bet again and again. A bet of $300 at the current bitcoin rate.


If you are a CEO of company and have 500k twitter fallowers making 300$ bet is reasonable even if you are betting on the fact that earth is flat because he will earn more on the increased popularity than the bet is worth (which can be seen from the fact that I see people talking about this bet in several places)

This is a bet between Adam Back and Vikingo on Twitter.


https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1687867034158440448

The bet was later on revised.


https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1687867393664847872

But still I can't help but think twice why the respected Dr. Adam Back is this bullish. If I were to bet on this, I'd bet against him. But this man isn't a John McAfee or a Balaji who were apparently exaggerating in their predictions. Adam Back seems to be a very reasonable man for me.

I know he's just reacting to Cointelegraph's article Bitcoin miners need BTC price over $98K by the halving — Analysis. But he's really convinced that Bitcoin will indeed reach at least $100,000 on or before the halving. He's willing to bet on it.

Do you think Adam Back's prediction is realistic? Are you as bullish as him?