Topic: A.I. and value of the Bitcoin! (Read 206 times)

Of course, something will be predictable ... but the accuracy of the forecast is better if closer to current time. More is far from the current time, and the accuracy of prediction is more incorrect. This is certainly a fact.

something needs to be predictable first before a comnputer program (AI) can predict it! it is like asking whether AI can predict the weather of 1 year from now!
there are patterns and signs that we can work with to some extent but there is still a lot of unpredictability to it which makes it impossible.

it is interesting to see how people in crypto-scene always expect weird things from AI!

From what has emerged, it is not possible to predict the value of Bitcoin: it depends on too many factors. But do you think accuracy improves with temporal proximity? In other words, does the accuracy of Bitcoin's value improve with the proximity to current time?
How accurate can a 10-minute forecast be compared to a 1-h or 1-day forecast?

There can be prediction based on statistical analysis of history assuming it will regress to the mean. But these kinds of predictions can't always be accurate because they are making assumptions that are unable to predict tail risks, or extreme events that could happen at any moment.

We can expect certain prices, but we cannot guarantee them in any way or form. These prices are very vulnerable to huge movements because there are so many factors that affect the price of Bitcoin. Investors can come from any part of the world at any time and just randomly decide to put a bunch of money in because they need another form of payment or just want to hide their money from the governments.

That's not to say that these things have patterns that we can recognize in advance in order to position ourselves accordingly.

I don't think AI can predict the price of Bitcoin.

As you might have noticed by now, BTC price is linked to news and market trends. The news influence people in buying/selling BTC and this moves the price up/down.

In my observation, there is no "AI" that is actually artificial intelligence in the whole world as of now. What you call "AI" is actually just machine learning. Machine learning is not something scary learns that humans are the biggest problem of the world and in order for the world to continue existing in peace the humanity must go. No, that is movies.

Machine learning learns how to play go or what not and react according to the moves and what happens. Check machine learning mario on youtube and you can see a great example, it makes mistakes and learn from them. Machine learning can't predict price movements but it can definitely study it well and since it is a machine it will have no "emotions" to trade so it may have better results than human but there is no way it can go %100 prediction because there are unexpected things that happen all the time in bitcoin market.

In mine opinion artificial intelligence in theory can do only the same tasks as humans brains, but much faster. Of Course there is some theories ,that artificial intelligence can evolve and become more smarter then humans, but this sounds more like fiction. So can it predict the value of Bitcoin? Yes, but not exactly accurate, because there is just to many unpredictable price factor.

AI can do arbitrage when exchange prices differ, but to make price predictions you need information.

It can be smarter than us given that it has been given enough information in the programming process to do so and if it is programmed to learn by itself.
It would be nice if engineers develop a self-improving AI with the capacity of predicting cryptocurrency prices only but it would be scary if it is an AI meant to think like a human and have a brain like us. It might betray its creator and we might be able to witness the Armageddon if that happens. I just hope that before it is developed, we will at least have a countermeasure against it if the worst possible scenario happens.

I believe Artificial Intelligence would be able to predict the most likely future price of Bitcoin. It will only be accurate to a certain percentage. Once we develop a form of general artificial intelligence, superintelligence is only a matter of time. Superintelligent AI will be able to predict what news will affect Bitcoin, how the human hodlers will react to that news, how much volume there will be, and where that will take the price. It could easily do this by analyzing and studying all of the Blockchain's tx lineage back to the genesis block, and corresponding that with exchange's volumes and whatever the general market sentiment is and boom, you have a great indicator of where the price will go. Of course, it will never be 100% accurate, but as long as it understands humans fully, it'll get awfully close.

The only thing AI needs to do is fully understand humans. Once AI knows how a person will react, it can understand how all Bitcoin hodlers will react and therefore what will happen to the price. This is superintelligence though, not standard AI. Bitcoin probably wouldn't matter too much if Superintelligence arises, there will be some huge issues once AI reaches this level.

IIRC, didn't MIT have an algorithm that was able to accurately predict Bitcoins price for a while?



No this isn't correct, it is very possible for Artificial Intelligence to become smarter than the person who made it. Computers are already smarter than humans at certain tasks (memory and calculations for example). There is a ton of development in this space, and AFAIK, GPUs are still following Moore's law. GPUs aren't even designed for Neural networks or Machine Learning and yet they are accomplishing amazing things for Artifical Intelligence. Hardware manufacturers are now actually developing Processors specifically designed for Machine Learning and Neural Nets. Because of this, you can almost see a double Moore's Law affect happening. Newly developed Neural Chips coupled with the advancement of GPUs gives rise to advancement much more exponential than Moore's Law.

AI has already come incredibly far in these last 5 years, and it's only a matter of time before Engineers develop a recursive self-improving AI. AI that learns how to program a better version of itself. It learns what works, and what doesn't. It constantly improves on its own design until it reaches a level of intelligence far beyond human. This is all entirely possible considering human intelligence is likely relatively low on the true intelligence scale. We can only compare our intelligence to the next smartest Species on earth, Orangutans and Chimpanzees. Yet we are nearly identical in terms of DNA. 1.5% of our DNA is different, and that 1.5% is where our intelligence comes from. I'm sure the intelligence spectrum goes far beyond what we can conceive.

Sorry for the book, I just find AI very fascinating!

Also this probably would be better in the Bitcoin Discussion board instead of the price Speculation board OP.

Of course Artificial intelligence can do it the problem is can we create an artificial intelligence that will predict the incoming value of bitcoin or any certain coin? The problem with Artificial intelligence is that it cannot be smarter than us so the moment a product like that has been invented then it only means that the person who made it knows how to predict the upcoming value of bitcoin and the fact that it happens only means that the resource and information that has been use is reachable by others.

It's an interesting question. People who buy and sell on the market often behave irrationally, whereas artificial intelligence is supposed to operate on rational principles.

I think the price of bitcoin is still very volatile for A.I. It depends on a number of factors, including human psychology and crowd psychology. So I doubt AIs would be successful.

However, A.I.s are already being tested/used to predict the price movement in the stock market:

https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-are-the-stock-predictions-of-AI

So, who know, in a couple of years, when the price volatility is diminished, we may see A.I.s predicting bitcoin price movements.

It is hard to guess whether an A.I. can do it, But maybe it can compute the given outcome for it, Well or maybe it can compute just the recent movement on the past or it can come up on a given value base on the recent movement for example bitcoin value, But I think it can never determine the exact things that can happen with its price because that would be very impossible, I really think it will surely work out as an alarm on the past event on things like what I have said the previous movement of bitcoin.

Can artificial intelligence predict the value of Bitcoin? What do you think?