Recently, Coinbase
announced that they had recorded the first crypto asset exchange where both parties were AI. It's doubtful this was truly the first such transaction, even on the Coinbase platform. AI elements have been integrated into trading bots for quite some time now. It's likely that AI-based bots have been trading with each other before, but no one had informed the exchange’s management. So, this is more likely the first officially documented transaction.
Nonetheless, this is a significant milestone. AI is not just a predefined trading algorithm. AI bots can learn and adapt their trading strategies. They not only recognize chart patterns but also consider traders’ expectations from these patterns - things like fear, greed, and other psychological aspects of human traders. They can analyze the challenges traders face, assess how well they overcome them, and take into account the successes and failures of human traders.
The number of AI bots will undoubtedly increase, and their competitive advantages over standard bots and human traders will enable them to trade profitably. If we view the market as a competitive battleground where every gain comes at someone else's loss, then eventually there may be little room left for human traders. Just as high-frequency trading bots using APIs edged humans out of front-running and arbitrage, AI bots could outcompete humans in traditional trading.
On the other hand, AI is increasingly being developed as a tool to assist, not replace, human traders. AI-driven tools are being designed to help humans achieve their goals, including in trading. For example, in September, MEREXP Analytics launched an analytics tool called
AI Swallow. It scans crypto-related news, reads it, and assesses its impact on market sentiment. Based on these evaluations, Swallow can help predict whether current news will drive up demand for cryptocurrencies or, conversely, cause demand to decrease and supply to increase.
The balance of supply and demand is the only real driver of price movement, and AI can evaluate the likelihood of changes in supply and demand based on market sentiment influenced by the news.
Up until now, only humans could do this. But humans can’t monitor and analyze news 24/7, whereas AI can. Additionally, humans tend to focus on news that aligns with their personal views, while AI is free from this cognitive bias, as well as from many others. AI won’t ignore news that do not fit its market outlook, and it evaluates all information objectively, without favoring its current market position. All in all, AI stands a much better chance of making well-balanced, rational decisions.
The question is, in the trading landscape of the future, will AI work for or against humans? When we read news about two AIs making a trade without human intervention, it’s easy to imagine that humans may no longer be needed in trading - AI will eventually push us out and take all the profits. But are such fears justified?
Does AI even need money or other assets like cryptocurrency? If it does, then there’s a chance AI will start extracting them from the market. But it's hard for me to imagine what AI would actually need them for. Money is a human invention, valued in human society, and it’s unlikely AI has any use for it. The same goes for cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, AI entering the crypto market is unlikely to act in its own interests. Moreover, AI doesn’t have interests - at least not yet. Current neural networks don’t possess any form of agency. This means that AI will act on behalf of humans, based on their commands and in their interests.
Thus, in trading, AI is more likely to be a tool rather than an autonomous player. Traders who use this tool will have a competitive edge at first. Then, as the market adapts, all active participants will start using AI, much like we all use computers or other electronic devices for trading today.
So, AI should be viewed as a friend and a helpful tool. We shouldn’t panic and shout, “It’s all over! AI will rob us all!” Nor should we abandon trading because we think there’s nothing left for humans. Instead, we should seek out new opportunities and solutions that are based on AI, learn how to use them, and apply them actively.
However, I do worry that in the near future, we might see a wave of fraudulent offers selling AI bots for trading. Distinguishing a worthwhile offer from a scam won’t always be easy. I can’t think of a universal strategy to help traders unfamiliar with AI separate the good from the bad and choose truly useful tools.
I have a few questions for traders.
- Have you already encountered any AI-powered trading tools (aside from the AI Swallow I mentioned)?
- Which of these tools have been useful, and which ones were just a waste of time and money?
- And generally, do you believe that AI can become a trader’s ally and assistant? Or do you fear it might destroy the type of trading we’re all used to and leave us without a source of income?