1) Try to find the solution provided by the coins or token
2) Check the community support and developer response . Check social media bitcointalk ANN thread response
3) Try to check the product if it is available in market
4) Check the competitor for the solution provided by coins .and what makes difference from other competitors.
5) Check ICO investment strategy or backed companies or any other investors.
6) Decide your profit ratio and time . Most important thing you have to decide your profit ratio because human tendency always lead to greediness . Fix the time either long term or short term
7) If your believing in concept and investing then wait for the actual product to release and allow team start marketing
Ya, i think your calculation is right. Another thing is the subject in which based the coin is relished.