Topic: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. (Read 433 times)

Still doesn't look too bullish tbh.

Many people have said that before you during 2015. Look at the chart again, but cut it, and look only from 2010 to early 2015. Flattened out already?

But is it really that bullish?

It kinda looks like it could have flattened out already?

As far as I know, market had been swinging from bear market to bull market and vice versa.  Both view I guess is right, and I think bull and bear market always coexist everyday.  So I guess, OP's pov is half true because he failed to see that Bull market is always around.

Hello OP,

I give you another alternative view from my universe. Zoom out!



There was ALWAYS a bull market. Buy the dip, and HODL.

I think the biggest thing with stops is are they leveraged because they may not have a choice then.   The market has a habit of wringing the sponge dry, basically it will shake the loose money out.   Its a natural phenomena that always reoccurs.



See if it can lose the 50 day MA convincingly first.   A good close below and a continuation down would seem to indicate more work needs to be done for any positive movement hopes.

It depends on where their stops are located. Most of the people aren't selling manually but do it through triggered stops.

I think that it's safe to say that when we hit $8999 the price will experience a fast decline towards $8500, or even lower if there isn't enough liquidity on the buy side of the order book. The few noobie noobs that do end up selling manually have very likely done so already, which if you look back, they have done a good job looking at where the price is right now.

I remember people (mainly hodlers) making fun of those who panic sold around $10,000 back in 2018. They would regret having sold with how the bull run would push the price back to $20,000 before the end of the year. We all know what happened after that.

That could also indicate that the price increased will slow down, but it doesn't mean that we can't go back to $13000 again. I don't know how long have you been to say that there is no bull run whatsoever. But if you look at Bitcoin's past history, this could be around 2015-2016 wherein there is a periodic run and then eventually goes on a crazy bull run in 2017. With that said, yes we are down right now, but this is just how the market works, so we will just let wait and see how it will go, but I'm seeing another attempt at $13000 in the coming weeks.

That would then be a bullish periode that has ended with the nearly 13k high.

The truth is, bear had never go away, its that the bullish market is pretty dominant at this moment but sometimes Bearish appears but easily dominated by bulls, that is another reason why we can see higher low (price crashing but higher than the previous  bottom price) during the bullish season of Bitcoin market.  I also agree that there is always a possibility that the trend will go the other way (Bitcoin going down) but I dis-agree that there is no bull market because if there is no Bull market then what do you call this rally of BTC from 3k up to the present price?

I disagree.
As you say, we are getting higher in numbers and if these people are getting even a part of 1 bitcoin and doesn't sell thinking it is an investment then we are still in good hands.

Not all can become traders or want to be a trader because of the time that will be spent to do it.
Some are just happy with an investment and never really want to move it.
With that, the price of bitcoin can still be intact. Let us say whales might sell but they cannot dump it to a number which is too low for people to panic again.

Of course. We can assume that the period of the bull market was already from April 1 to June 26, when bitcoin increased in price by about four times. However, this time altcoins did not show similar growth and therefore the growth of the cryptocurrency market was somehow incomplete. Because of this, the capitalization and price dominance of Bitcoin has greatly increased. This situation cannot exist for a very long time and I hope that in the fall altcoins. will already be actively growing after the next rise in bitcoin. In the fourth quarter, there should be a full-fledged bull market for cryptocurrency.

We had one of longest uptrend of bitcoin price in history of Bitcoin. Five straight positive months.




Problem is that some people will just never be satisfied. If we would have 10 positive month they will start complain after one negative month.

I don't understand why we can't call what happened bull neither, I mean we have moved from 3.4k at bottom this year to 13.8k at peak , how is that not a bull? The notion that "there is no bull market, bitcoin will go down" is quite wrong because bull already happened didn't it?

Maybe the correct term would be "bull time is over, bear will start" because than you try to say that bull already happened and it won't go up anymore, its time for bears to start and bitcoin price to go down, it still the same thing but accept the fact that bitcoin had a bull run and it will go down afterwards instead of denying all of bull run we just had. Of course people have seen the price move from 2-3k levels to 20k so they think it has to break the all time high in order to be a bull run but I feel like that is just wrong.

I am still trying to figure out the factor that will usher in the bull run but I am still yet to see it, the only factor that I have seen is that of Facebook, and I think that the project may not see its light, another factor that would have easily contributed to it even long time ago was ICO if we had ICO that were genuine and would still attract the new investors to the industry, but as ICO is no longer much attractive, we do not have many new investors to invest in the cryptocurrency market to cause  major breakout.

The only factor that I am relying on right now is the halving of bitcoin, although I expected so much from that of Litecoin but was disappointed, but I believe that the one for bitcoin will really make a great impact because it is the most popular crypto till date.

We were in a uptrend for half a year. That was one of longest periods of constant uptrend in Bitcoins history. Of course we had a downtrend month after that. 

Considering all that happened in past weeks. That so many people believe we are at brink of new financial crisis you dont think that is super good for Bitcoin long term? Moment when that happens it will break all trends and rewrite them fresh.

i don't think we are at that stage yet. and it is not "a few thousands of dollars"! the past 10 years is the clear proof that we don't need institutional investors and also the dollars that are coming in are more than enough to rise millions of percentage in less than a decade.
on top of that, bitcoin is decentralized and that is what attracts "individuals".

We know about the 4 year cycle simply because of the past experience and we do not have a big data to analyze whether it will happen again but then it is likely that we will see a rally after the halving because the amount of coins in circulation reduces and it will have an affect on the market.

Let me set the record straight, do you really expect that the market will rise because more people with invest in bitcoin, if you want to see the real difference in the market and expect the market to rise like everyone expects we need to have institutional investment coming into bitcoin and not a few thousands dollars from everyone to accumulate so that the market rises  .

if I think a bull run will also be experienced this year, because now the growth of bitcoin prices is also starting to grow, so I think the price of bitcoin will also increase again in the coming time

Bitcoin brings in new class to affluence to join the existing elite class and I don't see it that the elite class alone is accumulating coins because the modus is open to acquire even by the poor because you have lower strata of satoshi to acquire, own/hodl and allow it to grow too.

Yeah sure, and during the bear market people sold a lot.
What if it's just the same people jumping back on board?
Would explain why we did get a decent high, but a lower one than 2017 (because the hype isn't as big as back then).

a few months ago the price was $3000 and now the price is $11800, it shows that people have bought a lot and you can look at the altcoins that are dropping too much, and in my opinion the price of the altcoins is dropping a lot why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. and why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoins? because of halving, because of the possible entry of BAKKT and other companies. in my opinion the price will increase very long term

Bitcoin Price Is Currently Sitting in Its Historic Top 2% Range

as i said, in the long run the price will be very good

I wouldnt call forks a dividend, thats more like a scrip or fracturing of value into the separate fork which people then choose sell and speculate on the main fork being the most sucessfull which was true in this case.    So thats some speculating losing over others who retained the bcash or whichever fork.

BTC will return a yield if you place it with an institution.   There is no cash in the world that returns interest unless you place it with some bank of some kind, originally those banks often went broke.  The interest was a return for the risk hence the interest could be quite good.

We dont have that system with modern FIAT cash now really but bitcoin can given over to float in a few different businesses and return a yield and the original amount.   You do risk and trust that company to continue on without default, so its risk vs return normal capitalism.

I actually showed multiple long term pictures already.

Is it really bullish when looking at it since 2014?

Long term trends > short term trends. This is why charting the daily/weekly chart is actually useful for traders, while looking at the 1-minute chart is just chaotic noise. Over the long term, markets revert to the mean. For Bitcoin, that's a very well established long term uptrend.


Zoom out to the monthly chart. How likely is it these "peaks" will even be noticeable in the long term?

but...
...the 2019 high is 1/3 lower than the 2017/18 high.
...since the 2019 high we had two more peaks - each one lower than the one before that
...since the august uptrend we had like 5-6 peaks, each one lower than the one that came before it

Does this sound or look bullish to you?



Just like all of you I hope for btc to break out towards new highs and I think the current world economy doesn't look too bad for it. But I am not delusional and realize that it might very well go in the other direction.

People who are locked in the past can never move to future, I may have butchered the translation of that from my language but that is true in any language. If you still think that what happened in bitcoins past will repeat itself in the future you are wrong, you are dead wrong.

The notion that "history repeats itself" then you are super wrong, people do take out lessons from the wrongs that has been done in the past and we move from that. Maybe we are not progressing as well as we should and maybe sometimes we take a step back or two but eventually humanity always goes further and so does everything with it. Bitcoin do not have a 4 year cycle nor does it do things like people expect it to do, just because 2017 was a peak doesn't mean 2021-2022 will be neither, we are already in a bull market since we moved from 3k to 11k already if you haven't noticed.

Bitcoin bull run can start at any time, and it does not have to follow a cycle, the whole thing depends on the amount of investors that would pick interest at a particular time, and we can see that the time of interest of each investors varies, what usually pull crowd to make investment at once is if there is a publicity, a promo or something strong that would touch people and call their attention at once.

I think in 2017, ico contributed to why bitcoin price soared that high, we got lots of investors that came in at once to make investment, and I am sure that a factor will also come soon that will attract people to bitcoin, FacebookLibra coin would have been one, but it seem that one may not really be launched.

The market is not saturated at all, what is the percentage of people in bitcoin compared to the percentage of people in other markets, it is still very little.

Sure, it could be just a correction. I just want to point out that it is also possible that we already have reached the peak and are now starting to decline. Sure, it could go bullish like this but it also could go bearish like that.

I appreciate it! I tried to spark a discussion on reddit but /r/bitcoin is literally a worse echo chamber than /r/the_donald 


I think the only people that (on average) are making money with bitcoin trading are the trading platforms and whales that can do market manipulation. Other than that I think bitcoin is too unpredictable for trading.


no u


Yes I am aware of that. But right now we are down quite a bit from the last all time high and also down from the 'all year high'.
You could even draw a bearish trendline on the all-time-chart.


How do you know that it 'simply is false'? Did you take a look into your glass sphere?
Seriously though, 1% sounds like WAY too much. But let's say it was 1% - how do you know that 1% isn't the point of market saturation?

So, literally the same as you are doing.

The 2018 super-hype was big enough to reach basically every person that reads the news and thus everyone willing to get into bitcoin already has done so.

Okay that's great, I wasn't aware of that.
But still, it's not something you could rely on so it's not really comparable to dividends.

As far as Bitcoin not paying out dividends, it's not entirely true. Bitcoin holders have been generously rewarded with a wide variety of forks (forks you wouldn't have for free if you didn't hold Bitcoin prior to the splits).

Bcash was like an insane dividend. I don't hold my coins on an exchange so I couldn't cash them out at the highest possible price of over 0.4BTC, but I still managed to net an average of 0.19BTC per coin. Where do you get that?

Then we had BTG of which I managed to net an average of 0.03BTC. There have been way more forks but these two turned out to be the most rewarding. I still think that we will see more forks when the bull run really kicks in.

sorry, there is no such thing as "4 year cycle" in bitcoin. it only happened once in past 10 years. and now people are forcing themselves into believing there is such trend by only relying on that one time (2013 to 2017)!
that doesn't make it a cycle.

when people talk about "long term" and bullishness of bitcoin they are talking about the over all trend that happens over the years not in some couple of months or even one year. meaning price may be down this month (for example) but it will be up in a year from now.

that is an entirely different discussion and it is not something you could see by drawing some lines on the charts!
your argument is that bitcoin adoption has come to an end and no more people are going to ever adopt bitcoin. that simply is false. the adoption has not yet happened for more than 1% of the world. we still have a long way to go.

your "theory" doesn't have any reasons in it. you are basically making guesses based on your own feeling.
try explaining it and come up with reasons first. for example why do you think bitcoin adoption has come to an end while it is just starting up?

you can have different analysis result depending on how you draw your lines and what time period you use
if you draw from jan 2018, it shows downtrend patterns, bounce in march 2019 but still not back up yet
if you draw from jan 2019, it shows sideway movements and beginning of bullish market in april 2019
this is why any technical analysis cannot be 100% accurate, it depends on what data you use and how you perceive it

imo, we are in bullish market now... I am just using the last 6 months data and
by observing the trade volume and the strength of buy over sell (book and done order)

BTC already went up on quite a regular basis so that was a bull market ?   We gained 20%, isnt that the official definition.    Problem is bear market is losing 20% which BTC is quite happy to do also and then regain it, hard to say with a price that varies this much.

It shouldnt last positively forever, I think your charts are perfectly reasonable.   Are you new to the forum, far too rational a post for somebody new :p
  I'm inclined to think we go down just because we lost the trend up, had to happen at some point.  So far we've mostly been observed to go sideways, it could be drawn negatively like you indicate and I dont disagree but its a unproven so far.   It aint easy being a bear in the concrete jungle, a bull can always eat grass and bide its time.

In natural markets it is harder to be a bear also, the moves are sharper and corrections to the upside are rapid even if the overall trend were be negative.
   My solution is to try what I think can be turning points, if I'm wrong and we exceed a previous high then its fair to have a stop loss on any short there.   Of course price always hunts out the stops but thats my best effort.   I dont know if Asia trading now will be more bullish and break up some but a sell would be nice



Can it keep below 12076


The majority is from speculation but there is business that turns over in Bitcoin and even could give a yield for its operations.  Bitcoin can only be said to be backed by its utility and by the people who are enabled by its continued existence.  Its never going to zero in its community and economics and its fair to say its still growing barring speculative involvements flowing in and out.

Bitcoin's highest one month gain this year so far has been ~85%. 

You can actually have a bull run within a bear market, but the thing is that people with some sort of a bias against Bitcoin will always find a way to be bearish. Charts can be made to look super bullish or super bearish depending on the narrative you're pushing.

I am actually more appreciative of the bearish predictions than the bullish predictions because we already have so many moon predictions. Too bad people here are calling everyone with a bearish mindset fud spreaders or trolls. If my memory serves me well, Kwukduck has been the only actual fud spreader and troll we had. Too bad he's no longer active because it was very amusing seeing people go nuts on him. 

Bitcoin is way passed the 10,000$ mark several times already to call this Bull market fake. I don't know about you but BTC gaining back 255% of its value in less than a month says that this real bull market and is something way overdue, we waited for Bitcoin to rise back up again for 18 months and it just happened in a timely passion. Before you even label this a bear market you should try to identity what a bear market looks like. Simply a bear market doesn't have an upward trend and the volume is not always in favor of the buyers. You will see the exact opposite in the market today.

One month is not really a bigger time frame atleast you need to consider the quadrants then you can see the price growth at most of the quadrants you are looking into.We are seeing bitcoin to be bullish since it was created only few months it went down called bearish but soon they will recover and stats to rule the crypto market.

People knew about things like gold for thousands of years and yet it still has bull and bear markets. The factor of novelty is just one reason why Bitcoin was growing, but there are many others, like scarcity, which grows with halvenings, growing adoption, usability as store of value and so on. Maybe we will have bear market soon, but it wouldn't be for the reasons that you have mentioned.

We arent in a bull run yet. Bitcoin is just recovering.

Dont you see the 12k mark? It keeps going up there then it falls again. 12-15k is the zone where the recovery ends and the bull run starts. The real bull run will bring bitcoin to six digits.

Actually, it's not so contrarian as you might think, the early part of your theory. Now if we remember what the nervous bulls were talking about last year especially during the height of Bakkt hype, they insist that institutional investment is what will trigger the next bullrun.

Now that hasn't happened, according to themselves, neither will it happen soon so 2019 is just the natural uptake against a backdrop of poor global economic outlooks.

They who said it might not admit it but if they believed in their convictions of institutional money induced bullruns, then they must admit 2019 s simply not the year for it.

When bitcoin rise from below $3150 to $5000 in April 2019, it is a clear indication that the bearish trend that commenced in January 2018 has ended and Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend. I see all the long term indicators showing a sign of the beginning of a new bullish trend that will lead bitcoin to $100,000 or above and that might happen very soon. I have decided to keep holding and I strongly disagree with your views that bitcoin is in a downward trend. I don't think the correction is a change of trend directions!

Swiss franc.
Yeah sure it's a currency that is more stable than most. But still, inflation in the euro/dollar is not that high.

I really doubt that, sounds like fake news.
Also there are many reasons why this isn't a relevant number even IF it was true. E.g. since removal of the gold standard not that much time has passed. Also some fiat currencies didn't 'die' as in lose all it's value but rather got replaced (euro) which isn't really an issue for the consumer.

Well yes.. almost all 'analysts' are just people who have fun drawing some lines.
BTC could pump to 100k$ within a month, but it could also drop to 100$ in the same timeframe.

The probability for both is pretty low, but still possible tho.




And which currency is that ?

I am not aware of a single FIAT currency with almost 0 inflation within the last 10 years.




Well.. the average lifespan of a FIAT currency is 27 years.
And this fact doesn't sound very satisfying to me.

Yeah that's looking good, I can't deny that!


I kinda did 'just draw some lines on a chart' but that's my point - depending on how you draw the lines, btc seems to be going up or going down. Simply depends on how you look at it/draw the lines. But it appears to me like 99% are drawing the lines like it HAS to go up, when in my opinion there is also a significant chance of btc actually not going up!


Sure, but from what I know investors invest in stock, gold, silver, real estate etc and not in the USD?!
Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable, where as bitcoin gains/loses a few hundret percent within months. So the fiat system seems to work really well in the real world?

BTC price quotes:

01.06.2015: ~230 $
01.06.2016: ~530 $
01.06.2017: ~2.350 $
01.06.2018: ~7.500 $
01.06.2019: ~8.500 $


I don't know man.. doesn't seem like a long term price decrease to me.

Maybe we have different definitions of a price decrease and/or long term ?


You just draw some lines on a chart since the ATH.


I mean.. look, i can draw lines too:




Seems like 1.1k $ in 11/2013 was the highest bitcoin will ever reach. Clear downtrend, don't expect BTC to break 1.1k$ anymore.. oh.. wait.




Same applies to FIAT currencies.
The USD is not backed by anything either.

And both can be created out of thin air without any maximum supply.. oh wait.. this only applies to FIAT currencies 

I respect your analysis and insight about the current move of bitcoin and I cant blame you for thinking this isnt a bull run.

But there is one thing that we can always bear to our minds and that is bitcoin is a definite unpredictable digital asset. It has been told to be one of the best store of value by most and that's why every person that is researching about it dont want to miss this lifetime opportunity.

If you are worrying about who will push the price up, well the total market cap isnt even compose of the whole world market involvement. There are still big players, institutions and countries that can push the price.

So why is it decreasing in mid term and long term (see my chart images)?

I don't completely disagree. That could be the future for bitcoin.
But right now, it feels more like whales are placing bets on the price to go up/down and then dump/buy a ton of bitcoin to win their bet. I really think whales are a big problem for the future of bitcoin.

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

Bitcoin created a completely new asset class, and it is unique within that class. It is now being accumulated by the elite and the asset managers as an addition to precious metals and other enduring assets. Because of this, it will always increase in value at an inflation beating rate in my opinion.

Hello guys,

I am aware of the '4 year cycle' and that nearly everybody here believes bitcoin is long term bullish. I am not saying I totally disagree with that, but I do think other options are also possible and should be discussed!

When looking at the charts, it's pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend since more than one month:
https://i.ibb.co/bgbbBf1/07-08-2019-2.png

Even at the bigger timeframe, it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to the moon:
https://i.ibb.co/sHC8Cd7/07-08-2019-3.png


Could it be that the 2018 all time high kind of 'saturated' the bitcoin market so that most people that are interested in btc already know of it (and bought in if they wanted to do so), thus future highs will never reach the same price again? In the previous (before 2018) bull markets, it was always far from saturation meaning only some people (more every cycle) knew about bitcoin. But in 2018 literally everyone that reads news learned about bitcoin (and invested if he believed in it). So, now we simply lack investors that could push the price up.

What do you think? Bullshit theory? Could it be true?

In any way, I think it will soon show whether the recent uptrend or the downtrend will be stronger:
https://i.ibb.co/Qbfbx9F/07-08-2019.png
I think whether the price will then go up or down will be decisive for the btc price trend for at least a week.