I'm just looking at charts of ETH and other altcoins rn and I feel like we're in for another blood bath. And February could end up bad with most alts ending in red for the month.
It's looking likely that most alts will end up in the red against Bitcoin, but probably neutral or green against fiat imo. I'm still waiting for alts to get left behind once Bitcoin starts really pumping.
I'm not sure what's going on and what's causing most of the market's volatility but it's not looking good guys. Whales look like they're running stops then shorting the market themselves.. Does anybody what's up with the sudden change in sentiment?
I see you posted this after Bitcoin's correction to $21.4K. Looks like time already answered your question, as can be retrospectively be seen as a natural correction back to support before further upside.
Yeah.. That's why I was asking as it was all looking good before that sell down to 21.4k or so. Which looked like it was a change in sentiment. I was wondering why when everything started to look good and seemed like the market sell downs have been exhausted.
To me it looked like a natural & healthy correction, as it seemed unlikely Bitcoin was going to simply carry on to the upside without a pullback, although I was expecting a little lower around $20.9K. Rebounding from where it did clearly left some bulls behind as many were also expecting slightly lower, which just went to show how bullish the sentiment was back then with price bouncing above support rather than within.
On another note last weeks -7.5% drop to $23.3K looked more concerning to me at the time, as it happened with reasonable volume and mostly within 4 hours. But then within a day price completely eradicated that correction with even more volatility. Now I see there are bearish wicks to the upside on Daily time-frame along with bullish wicks to the downside on lower time-frame, very much creating not much else but noise.
But then a couple of days later, everything started getting back to the program again and started going up. It's now almost up to 25k. This week is gonna be crucial. If it breaks out of 25k and holds, I think we're in for a ride to 28k - 32k range.
Not going to lie I was disappointed price didn't close last week above the August high of $24.3K, instead slightly below, but otherwise price is now comfortably above the 50 Week MA ($24.470) as it continues to decline which I think has had an instant positive impact. Regardless of the fact that last week it was at $24.7K and price closed below. If we keep knocking at the $25K door it will eventually break imo.
As you said this week will be crucial, either bullish with a close above $25K or bearish with a close below $24K, as the latter would be the second consecutive weekly rejection from long-term MAs (50 & 200 WMA).
It could be a correction but looking at things now it could also be BTC starting some shenanigans again and starts doing what it did from August to November.
For sure, not going to argue there. There still is a lack of confirmation that the bear market is truly over. Without breaking $25K, there is little to no confirmation despite the bullish looking move.
I'd be more comfy saying it's all just corrections before resuming the trend back up again if BTC breaks out well above 25k resistance then flips it, corrects to it and makes it the new support.
Personally, I'd be happy enough with a higher low (>$20K) on macro scale with a return to $25K. While price was rejected by this resistance for the second time, I don't think it'd hold as resistance a third time. As for flipping $25K into support, I very much doubt this will happen anytime soon based on previous times Bitcoin has broken a strong resistance level that has led into a new uptrend.
A few examples, notably the trend change scenarios:
- Breaking $4K resistance in April 2019. Took 11 months and a black swan event to re-test this as support (meanwhile Bitcoin goes up 3x)
- Breaking $6.4K resistance in May 2019. Took 7 months to re-test this as support (meanwhile Bitcoin goes up 2x)
- Breaking $20K resistance in December 2020. Took 18 months to re-test this as support (meanwhile Bitcoin goes up 3.5x)*
*This one is subjective as wasn't based on a trend change, but still remains relevant imo as very much confirmed a new bull market.You more of less have to go back to 2015 to see the 10 month long resistance level of $300 flipped to support a month later. Or otherwise the July 2020 breakout above $10K resistance that was re-tested two months later, but this one is again more subjective as was merely a continuation of a bullish uptrend within a relatively neutral consolidation environment. Not trend change based in particular. This only goes to show that Bitcoin does indeed flip old resistance into new support quite regularly and in a "normal" manner compared to other markets, with the notable exception of doing so when the tide changes.
There are also many on the sidelines singing the same tune of waiting for $25K to be turned into support, as opposed to the break-out above this level, and I feel these more conservative investors will get left behind as they have done consistently in the past, particularly the trend change scenario in 2019. Waiting for a re-test of $4K or otherwise a re-test of $6.5K (when at best there was a quick wick to $6.6K, ie no meaningful consolidation turning resistance into support). Many will wait for a rejection of $30K for the re-test of $25K, but if 2019 is anything to go by this might not act as any resistance either once price reaches it.
I also don't think waiting on the sidelines is the worst idea if you want to see $25K or $30K turned into support, as I do think it will eventually happen, but if past Bitcoin trend changes are anything to go by, it may well be a case of having to wait 6-12 months in order to enter (or re-enter) the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin could easily go to $50K, and yes I mean easily as above $30K there is low volume. I'm not suggesting anyone should FOMO into a break above $25K, but more so that $26K or $27K might not be that much of a premium to pay if prices return to >$30K, compared to the risk waiting for an imminent re-test.
Take a look at the chart... Let's just hope that there's not gonna be some bs news taking everything back down below 20k again.
I mean anything is possible, but I think it's unlikely. To me it seems we already had the bs news that took price down to $15.5K, after Bitcoin had spent 5 months carving out a bottom that without that FTX news, could well of held imo. I'd be a lot less comfortable if we didn't already have the news orientated upside bart style fake-out to the downside, that's for sure.