Topic: Am I right in saying DOGE mining is stupid due to random block reward...?? (Read 641 times)

But yeah, I mean, I see the predictable factors as

1. Your GPU's hash rate
2. The block reward
3. Time taken to block
4. Difficulty

And I see the unpredictable factors as

1. altcoin to BTC price
2. BTC to USD price

I do think, though, that the higher the volume of an altcoin, the more stable the value is going to be.

More BTC volume for an altcoin means that it takes  more people and more money to shift the coin's value, thus making the value more stable.

It seems you got completely the opposite out of my post than what I was trying to tell you.

Actually there is no such thing as a consistently most profitable coin. Market conditions change all the time.
Unless you're micromanaging your rig, you'll get the most profit from scrypt using one of the coin switching pools.

Anything else is just speculation and a gamble.

Yeah, and I've noticed that multipool.us checks every 1 minute for profitability, and switches you over on the smallest difference, and then it takes time to switch over, leading to lost Khashes and lost time.

So, this is why I've been wanting to find the best altcoin to mine, and only mine that one for prolonged perods of time (at least days, maybe weeks, months, years)

And so, this is why I posted this thread, because I thought that Dogecoin was totally random.

So, I think I should go have a look at the doge blockchain explorer, and I can see for myself how this reward system works..

If I have any issues understanding it, I'll ask you though, because you seem quite knowledgeable.

I currently believe that 2011 was the best year for Bitcoin, because it went up to $32 and back down to $1, meaning, you could speculate that it would rise to $32 again, and indeed, by 2013, it was up to $260... And so, with just a $1,000 investment in 2011, you could have made at least $32,000, and as it turned out, $260,000 and right into $1,000,000 when it went to $1000.

Not only that, but in 2010, mining wasn't profitable, due to BTC being so low in value.

However, I do believe that since the introduction of altcoins, starting with Litecoin, there is a potential to make a nice profit, not mega-huge, but nice, from minin altcoins.

I'm currently looking at TIPS, DOGE, LTC and NVC, based on the ones I've seen come up most often on multipool.us, but I have yet to decide which coin. I would also want to take into account difficulty adjustments and media hype. One advantage of DOGE is media hype.

Coinwarz' estimate using a fixed value is just fine. Doge's random distribution is linear.
Extrapolating the last 100 blocks makes absolutely no sense and will yield incorrect results.

And like I mentioned earlier, the reward is based on the previous block. The reward for the next block already can be predicted correctly.
But the reward roughly 60 seconds from now has nothing to do with the profitability of mining a coin for over a day.

Maybe he's hardcore into c++'s preprocessor?

I just brushed it off as I got the gist of what he meant. People modifying the source and making their own build.
Not that it matters, this potential issue was already considered way back when the foundation for Bitcoin was made.

I wish coinwarz would also take into consideration the network hashrate per coin in addition to difficulty.

For random reward coins, like doge, perhaps they could take the average or mean of the last 100 reward blocks to guestimate the next reward?

I'm not even sure what he means by the code pre-compiling

So basically what you're saying is, you don't understand how mining works at all?

The reward is based on the previous block and can not be messed with. Everyone on the network is mining for the next block.
You don't mine for a specific block, you mine for the next one. If someone else finds a block, the entire network starts over again attempting to find a block.
However, what is possible is to opt to not mine for low reward blocks (and mine some other coin) and let the rest of the network handle it.
But it's not possible to up the value of a block you've found. It wouldn't validate, you'd create a local fork and the rest of the network moves on without you.

As for the random distribution (suggesting you could get 1 doge for months on end). It doesn't work that way. It's pseudo-random and the distribution can be verified in the source code.

How about a scam where the DOGE makers mess around with the random number generator, and generate the maximum for all the blocks that they happen to be mining?

These coins are open source, sure, but I wonder if they can screw around with the code pre-compiling?

Reward halved so now it's 0-250,000.

As far as I can tell, mining DOGE gives you a random block reward of between 0 and 500,000....

Coinwarz, in stupid fashion, estimates this to be 250,000 on average.

But we all know, in math, that random could mean, you actually get 1 DOGE coin every single time for 6 months straight.... like... 1 coin, not 250,000, not 100,000, not 500,000... Technically, you could get 1 coin per block for everyone to share amongst each other...

So.... correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's logical to mine a coin with the same coin reward every time.