That is the least of our problems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IbStIb9XXw
Topic: Analysis of Bitcoin Mining, possible bubbles, and the ecosystem in general (Read 939 times)
August 20, 2013, 04:38:49 PM
August 20, 2013, 04:33:42 PM
I'm writing here because I'm hoping that some people will be able to give me their opinions on why I'm wrong. Because if I'm not wrong, there is a huge problem with the bitcoin ecosystem and economy that will balloon out of control.
Here are my observations:
Mining is an integral part of the bitcoin economy. Without miners, the system would collapse. The incentive for most miners is the monetary profit in it through transaction fees and block rewards. Here is the problem though. GPU mining is unprofitable for all but a very small percentage of miners so I will focus on ASIC miners. With ASIC miners, pretty much all of them right now will not make ROI if you placed an order today. I don't mean to rag on any companies in particular, but just take for example BFL. Because their shipments are delayed, by the time you get your unit, there's almost no chance of breaking even. The same goes with a lot of other companies taking preorders. ASICMiner's USB sticks is another example. Because of the low hashing rate of these sticks, it will also be very hard to break even with these, even at today's difficulty much less minding the difficulty increases. So this leads me to ask: if there is no incentive to getting into mining now (since the returns are diminishing into the negative region), how are we going to sustain the currency?
I would also like to draw a parallel to the housing bubble burst of the mid 2000's. Then, prices for houses in California, among other places were rising very fast. People would buy a new house, and before it was even constructed, would sell it to another person and so on and so forth. This, at least to me, seems like the same environment we have today. We have people who have pre-ordered equipment, and then are selling that equipment to others before it's even built! Are we in for trouble?
There is no doubt that there is profit to be made in the mining equipment market, and I myself have bought and sold ASIC miners for a nice profit. But how is the current state of affairs sustainable for the bitcoiners who are not just making money off of selling mining equipment? How will these miners make money? And if they can't make money, what will happen to bitcoin when they realize they can't break even and shut down their equipment?
Here are my observations:
Mining is an integral part of the bitcoin economy. Without miners, the system would collapse. The incentive for most miners is the monetary profit in it through transaction fees and block rewards. Here is the problem though. GPU mining is unprofitable for all but a very small percentage of miners so I will focus on ASIC miners. With ASIC miners, pretty much all of them right now will not make ROI if you placed an order today. I don't mean to rag on any companies in particular, but just take for example BFL. Because their shipments are delayed, by the time you get your unit, there's almost no chance of breaking even. The same goes with a lot of other companies taking preorders. ASICMiner's USB sticks is another example. Because of the low hashing rate of these sticks, it will also be very hard to break even with these, even at today's difficulty much less minding the difficulty increases. So this leads me to ask: if there is no incentive to getting into mining now (since the returns are diminishing into the negative region), how are we going to sustain the currency?
I would also like to draw a parallel to the housing bubble burst of the mid 2000's. Then, prices for houses in California, among other places were rising very fast. People would buy a new house, and before it was even constructed, would sell it to another person and so on and so forth. This, at least to me, seems like the same environment we have today. We have people who have pre-ordered equipment, and then are selling that equipment to others before it's even built! Are we in for trouble?
There is no doubt that there is profit to be made in the mining equipment market, and I myself have bought and sold ASIC miners for a nice profit. But how is the current state of affairs sustainable for the bitcoiners who are not just making money off of selling mining equipment? How will these miners make money? And if they can't make money, what will happen to bitcoin when they realize they can't break even and shut down their equipment?
Jump to: