Topic: Analysis of price - log scale, trendline prediction (Read 804 times)

So i made my first semi technical analysis of bitcoin price, quite noobish but im happy with it, and i belive i did more for the "correct predition" of price than most of the users here arguing that they just "sense it" or "feel it" that bitcoin will go up in price :-).
I wanna share it and get some feedback from INTELIGENT and CRITICAL THINKING PEOPLE on what they think about my assumptions. "Feelers" of rising bitcoin price - please dont even bother to reply :-).

I got daily weighted price data from mgtox exchange since 17.7.2010 and done some calculations in excel :-), i was using the log scale on the chart/data and a linear ("straight") trendline (also the prediction of the trendline). Is this a good choice for BTC price prediction?

I also wanted to check if the old data (from 2010-2011 for example) was predicting a correct trend... Heres what i found. (I was using just the mgtox, which has got a little higher prices, but had the oldest data i found for exchange).

According to my "analysis". I found out that bitcoin (according to its trendline) will reach STABLE price of 10 000 USD  level in August 2015. This is according to the trendline, so it could reach it quicker but it would be in a bubble... or also later but it would be undervalued and delayed towards the trend. Stable price of 10 000 USD according to trendline August 2015. Stable (awesome) heights of 100 000 would be reached in August 2016.

Stable 1000 USD (not in a buble) should be reached in August July 2014.

Now... i also tried to find out what date would a person get few years back if he would be predicting the date in which bitcoin reaches 1000 dolars. Bitcoin Reached it in the begging of December 2013...

All tha data begin in 17.7.2010. If a person would be doing this log scale analysis of trendline with all the data avaiable at that date, in April 2011 (before the first buble i think), that means data from 17,7,2010 to 1,4,2011 he would get that the price of 1000 USD would be reached in 1.10.2012 (that means the trendline was wrong (earlier) by a year (bitcoin got to 1000 USD really in 1.12.2013)

If the person would be doing analysis back in begging of 2012 (after the first BTC buble and some stable months in 2011) (data range from 17.7.2010 to 1.1.2012) he would get that the BTC price should reach 1000 in 1.12.2012 (still off (early) by a year)

If the person would be doing trendling from data from 17,7,2010 to 1,4,2013 (or something like that, simply before the 2 buble in april 2013) he would get the 1000 BTC price in 1.12.2014 (that means again a year off but this time with a year later).

analysis from 17,7,2010 to may 2013 (again, simply, after the april bubble) he woulůd get BTC 1000 USD at 1,10,2014 (still of by a year)

analysis from 17,7,2010 to before the latest (china)  buble beggin,  it seemed that btc would reach the price of 1000 USD in 1,9,2014

And it reached it in 1,12,2013...


So according to the all data i got (from 17,7,2010 to 29,12,2013) btc should reach the (STABLE, trendline like) price of BTC 10 000 in August 2015.... It could be sooner but it would be i na bubble, or also later (but it would be undervalued according to trendline).

Heres one of the charts i used for interpretations:

http://s22.postimg.org/wgb8t1jnl/Analysis.jpg

And btw, this is only statistics/maths calculations, tommorow the banks can fail and the BTC can skyrocket, or the govs. of the world can come out tommorow and say that they ban bitcoin and btc price would plummet...

So what do you think about that, am i doing the trendline log scale analysis correctly? Whats your take on this, what calculations did you done, what have you descovered?