Analysis – Personal merit per day, merit per post and ranking-up projections

1. Introduction.

I was curious as to what the merit per day and merit per post for a forum member looked like these days, and what a projection of their ranking-up dates could roughly look like.
While the merit per day indicator is relatively easy to derive, the merit per post and the projection of the dates when one is to rank-up are not. I’ve tried a few approaches and posted here the one that seems better off out of the diverse alternatives I tried.

2. Earned Merit per day.

The earned merit per day for a given person is calculated as the coefficient EarnedMerit/nDaysReference, where:
EarnedMerit = the sum of all non-airdropped merits.
nDaysReference = The number of days between 24/01/2018 until the 28/09/2018 (last data extraction-> early morning-> virtually as if it were the 27/09/2018) that the person has had his account for. Accounts created on or before 24/01/2018 will all have 248 days (number of days the merit system has been running until last data extraction). Newer account will have a smaller value logically (i.e. an account created a month ago will have 30 days in this parameter).

Upon further though, I saw that even this simple ratio is not always fair. For example, let’s say we have an account that has been created 1 day ago, and received 15 (suspicious) sMerits. That account would have a EarnedMeritPerDay ration of 15, which would be the top ratio.
For that reason, even though I’ve calculated internally the indicator for all accounts, I would omit from any ranking those accounts that have not posted at least 30 posts recently (within the last 4 months *), which seems to cut out most of the extreme cases I had cropping up in the top places.

Top 25 EarnedMeritPerDay:

Code:

user_id name rank EarnedMeritPerDay earnedMerit nDaysAcc. nDaysReference url
35 theymos Administrator 10,988 2725 3154 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=35
459836 LoyceV Legendary 4,052 1005 1311 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=459836
1582324 DdmrDdmr Sr. Member 4,032 1000 268 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1582324
397737 hilariousetc Legendary 3,484 864 1404 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=397737
479624 Last of the V8s Legendary 3,218 798 1294 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=479624
520313 Lutpin Legendary 2,996 743 1211 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=520313
698159 Jet Cash Legendary 2,948 731 1014 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=698159
234771 suchmoon Legendary 2,944 730 1702 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=234771
30747 Vod Legendary 2,879 714 2649 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=30747
487418 The Pharmacist Legendary 2,835 703 1288 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=487418
98986 TMAN Hero Member 2,677 664 1995 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=98986
290195 achow101 Staff 2,657 659 1660 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=290195
897509 xtraelv Sr. Member 2,617 649 750 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=897509
1067333 micgoossens Sr. Member 2,484 616 442 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1067333
101872 Lauda Legendary 2,48 615 1991 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=101872
188198 Piggy Hero Member 2,29 568 1752 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=188198
1275282 joniboini Sr. Member 2,238 555 331 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1275282
1000199 krogothmanhattan Hero Member 2,109 523 506 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1000199
11425 gmaxwell Staff 2,073 514 2704 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=11425
569455 BobLawblaw Legendary 2,044 507 1077 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=569455
1291828 iasenko Sr. Member 2,012 499 326 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1291828
1188543 o_e_l_e_o Sr. Member 1,992 494 359 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1188543
557989 BTCforJoe Hero Member 1,883 467 1097 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=557989
1560793 sncc Sr. Member 1,774 440 271 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1560793
787736 marlboroza Hero Member 1,758 436 945 248 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=787736

Comments:
•   Satoshi is off the list due to not meeting the 30 recent posts criteria. Another great ratio that is chopped off is @theyoungmillionaire (his ratio is 2,23) , for the same reason.

•   What surprised me is that, out of the 21.971 all-time merited users, 11.424 has a post count of less than 30 post in the last four months (*). It is not just the Newbies and Jr. Members, since there are plenty of members, full members and other ranks in the same situation. That indicates that just over half of merited people post rather seldom or in bursts.

•   The full Merit user base distribution for EarnedMeritPerDay is as follows:

Code:

EarnedMeritPerDay nUsers %
[>=1] 109 0,50%
[0.75 ... 1) 49 0,22%
[0.5 ... 0.75) 128 0,58%
[0.25 ... 0.5) 432 1,97%
[0.1 ... 0.25) 1139 5,18%
[<0.1) 20114 91,55%

If the "required" merit per day is roughly of 1 per day (in order to up-rank at the same rate as before the merit system, just based on activity), then only a small elite is keeping the pace (and many of them are already on the highest rank to date: Legendary).

(*) Nº of Recent post within four months is calculated as follows:
- If the account is < 4 months old then total posts are considered.
- If the account is >= 4 months old and account is in backup from four months ago then total nPostNow – nPostBackup
- If the account is >= 4 months old and account is not in backup from four months ago (merited in between for the first time) then (total nPostNow /nDaysAccount)*nDaysIn4Months. Basically, using all-time average per day for the account, and translating that into 4 months.
This is not perfect fot the third case, but it is a decent solution for the most. Nevertheless, there are circumstances that shift the post count form what it really should be in reality, such as deleted posts.

3. Earned Merit per post (last 4 months)

The earned merit per post for a given person is more complicated. The ideal would be to have a full user snapshot of the DB from the 24/01/2018 to contrast current posts against. Ideally, all posts prior to that date should not be considered (although arguably backtracked posts were merited in the early days of the Merit System). I also thought that after eight months, people’s received merit patterns may vary rather, especially if we contrast the early months to the rest.
In the end, I decided to use the 4 month criteria for this calculation as explained above for posts (*), performing a similar calculus for the number of merits received in the same timeframe (consider all earned merit if account < =4 months old, merit difference from 4 month backup for those in the backup, average of up to 248 days for the rest and multiplied by 4 months).

With the above, the top 25 users with most earned merit per post are:

Code:

user_id name rank earnedMeritPerPost nMeritReferenceCalculation nPostReferenceCalculation url
11425 gmaxwell Staff 6,872 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=11425
35 theymos Administrator 2,979 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=35
958248 etherclassic Member 2,595 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=958248
290195 achow101 Staff 2,355 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=290195
921087 Tukang Becak Hero Member 2,243 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=921087
1026500 rusbitcoinuser Full Member 2,219 Avg Merit in 4 months (all history > 8 month) All History (averaged to 4 months) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1026500
950218 Dice-Bet Full Member 1,633 Avg Merit in 4 months (all history > 8 month) All History (averaged to 4 months) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=950218
906023 poptop Hero Member 1,487 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=906023
392563 chandra12 Full Member 1,471 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=392563
952115 ganjaman Sr. Member 1,457 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=952115
206960 1369 Legendary 1,417 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=206960
2143453 1miau Full Member 1,336 Avg Merit in 4 months (all history <= 8 month) All History (averaged to 4 months) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2143453
1090672 Smart man Sr. Member 1,319 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1090672
1582324 DdmrDdmr Sr. Member 1,269 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1582324
354710 maildir Legendary 1,235 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=354710
1065443 MarcusMillstrom Full Member 1,184 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1065443
1951496 Cryptoshka Full Member 1,179 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1951496
182284 mfort312 Sr. Member 1,148 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=182284
138921 kschneezy Full Member 1,145 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=138921
1555374 NadiaHel Full Member 1,123 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1555374
1464471 spirali Member 1,098 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1464471
55384 Foxpup Legendary 1,094 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=55384
1982698 joulion86 Member 1,067 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1982698
84866 ibminer Legendary 1,064 Earned merit in 4 months 4 months https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=84866
64734 vitruvio Sr. Member 1,053 Avg Merit in 4 months (all history > 8 month) All History (averaged to 4 months) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=64734

The above has to be taken as a rough reference, but not verbatim since there are factor that influence the results, potentially noticeably, such as deleted posts, merit awarded in the four month window to post created before the window timeframe, etc.

4. Ranking-up dates

I also gave it a go at calculating the rank-up dates for forum members that had PostsPerDay>0. Looking at the distribution shown above on merit per day distribution, the majority of the projections are bound to be really far ahead (I mean 91,55% of merited users are being awarded below 0.1 merits per day, so for most, the stopper is merit and not activity in general, as we already know).

Basically, I’ve played around with the MeritPerDay ratio and the PostPerDay ratio. Then comparing with each rank’s merit and activity requirement (the minimum 775 for Legendary), I calculated the number of days to get to each rank on account of both concepts. Finally, the date is derived from the maximum number of days of account of both tolls (which ever takes longer to comply- the merit toll or the activity toll).
This is really a rough approximate, and not a solid one-to-one forecast, since past month's data is used to project behaviour in a flat linear pattern (and we know that merit generally tends to decrease really). However, the exercise is interesting to perform.

Projections - Additional people that will rank-up with the Merit System:

Code:

year Members Full Members Sr. Members Heroes Legendries
2018 255 25 18 9 4
2019 1105 205 158 91 24
2020 820 241 143 83 45
[2021..2025] 3950 2407 729 453 285
[2026..2030] 178 772 824 431 233
[2031..2035] 82 751 1795 460 246
2036++ 206 5939 9115 12684 14197

Note: Some member’s projections are clustered rather largely, since they have the same amount of merit. For example, the 3.950 Member cluster tend to have currently 1 or 2 merits, many with activity already ripe for Member, but not merits. Also I grouped years to make it more readable from 2020 onwards.

For example, the 4 Legendries for 2018 (reaching at least the minimum activity level + 1k merits) would be @Hhampuz, @BTCforJoe, @HCP, and @marlboroza (**).
For 2019 we would have as forecasted Legendries: @bill gator, @bob123, @buwaytress, @coinlocket$ (end of 2019), @gawlea, @HairyMaclairy, @HeRetiK, @Iasenko, @joniboini, @killyou72, @krogothmanhattan, @LeGaulois, @Matthias9515, @Micgoossens, @mstfprcn, @o_e_l_e_o, @PHI1618, @Piggy, @sabotag3x, @stompix, @TheQuin, @Tonych, @TryNinja, @xtraelv.

Note: (**) Aside, there are also currently 85 Heroes with enough activity (at least 775) and merit to rank-up at some point too.

Topic: Analysis – Personal merit per day, merit per post and ranking-up projections (Read 313 times)