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Topic: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members (Read 361 times)

DdmrDdmr
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 10802
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 10, 2018, 01:23:58 PM
#9
Quote from: bitmover on August 10, 2018, 01:17:34 PM
I am going to confess I felt good for not being in the very heavy category. I thought I was. I spend too much time here already lol
Nearly.. you're in segment "02. Heavy" for the last two months..

Yeah, the reading time is not quantified, and that probably adds up to a fair share for many of us too in relation to the time actually spent on posting. You may be on the very heavy side there.. I probably am (I’m not going to analyse logged in time, just in case that comes up..).
bitmover
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 6089
bitcoindata.science
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 10, 2018, 01:17:34 PM
#8
I am going to confess I felt good for not being in the very heavy category. I thought I was. I spend too much time here already lol
DdmrDdmr
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 10802
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 10, 2018, 01:08:02 PM
#7
Quote from: LoyceV on August 10, 2018, 12:06:01 PM
My list included all users who earned 9 or 10 Merit, including the ones who received a Merit airdrop. That explains the difference, you don't have this one for example:
89349: erwinbit (history)
Yes, that has to be it.

Quote
It's quite likely the Members who received 10 Merit from one user either got them from their alt, or bought them.
That's what I thought. It's a possible indicator that can raise suspicious cases (along with other patterns we could think of easily). The thing is if could effectively lead anywhere practical in terms of tagging at least, since probably more than that is needed (especially in the lower end of the merit abuse/alt chain).
LoyceV
legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 10, 2018, 12:06:01 PM
#6
Quote from: DdmrDdmr on August 09, 2018, 08:49:53 AM
a)  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fVkH12ZVS50LEJWG5WjuvLqdAB144zWxP0AIY3f5N2o/edit?usp=sharing
It contains all the users in segment '06. Negative' (not just Members, but Rank is included so it can be delimited by filtering).
There are very few cases there that have earned 9 or 10 merits in the past month and deleted a buch of posts, so I think it won’t really be useful to you.

b) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u9bgcvKRDJwCi4NsuxFKjo57pPPWXCD-crsBwBJwJhA/edit?usp=sharing
This file contains all users with 9 or 10 merits on their profile (as of last scrape 06/08/2018) and 9 or 10 merits derived from the cumulative merit.txt files (therefore, earned merits with no airdrop). The total is less than the amount you pointed to (I’ve got 1.672) , so there must be a criteria difference.
My list included all users who earned 9 or 10 Merit, including the ones who received a Merit airdrop. That explains the difference, you don't have this one for example:
89349: erwinbit (history)

Quote
The interesting column is the last one (MeritReceivedFromNUsers), since it tell us how many people have awarded each of these users with merit.
It's quite likely the Members who received 10 Merit from one user either got them from their alt, or bought them.
DdmrDdmr
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 10802
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 09, 2018, 08:49:53 AM
#5
Quote from: LoyceV on August 09, 2018, 06:39:38 AM
Can you get me a list of all 1033 Member accounts that lost posts? I'd like to cross-reference them to the ones that earned exactly 10 Merit.

I've created two google sheet documents:

a)  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fVkH12ZVS50LEJWG5WjuvLqdAB144zWxP0AIY3f5N2o/edit?usp=sharing
It contains all the users in segment '06. Negative' (not just Members, but Rank is included so it can be delimited by filtering).
There are very few cases there that have earned 9 or 10 merits in the past month and deleted a buch of posts, so I think it won’t really be useful to you.

b) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u9bgcvKRDJwCi4NsuxFKjo57pPPWXCD-crsBwBJwJhA/edit?usp=sharing
This file contains all users with 9 or 10 merits on their profile (as of last scrape 06/08/2018) and 9 or 10 merits derived from the cumulative merit.txt files (therefore, earned merits with no airdrop). The total is less than the amount you pointed to (I’ve got 1.672) , so there must be a criteria difference. The interesting column is the last one (MeritReceivedFromNUsers), since it tell us how many people have awarded each of these users with merit.


Quote from: vphasitha01 on August 09, 2018, 08:01:35 AM
<…>
1) How you derived the posting segments (eg: Very Heavy >=5 posts per day). Because I believed that threshold number matters the most and it will clearly affect the data when we move to the comparison or talking about percentages.
The posts per day is calculated as an average per user per month. It is done by simply substracting the most current Posts value on User Profile from that of the DB snapshot a month ago, and dividing by the number of days between the two snapshots.

Quote
2) Can we cross-referenced the posts of the users(636+1033+973) actually having negative posting state with posts that got deleted on ANN/ Bounty threads?
Not with the data I have, since I’m just using basically the User Profile information, without actually looking at posts themselves (I’m not even sure if deleted posts can be read on a log on some sort, but it would be rather tedious to download, classify etc.). What I did is go through 20 or so profiles and by seeing what posts are still there you get a pretty good idea of what must have been deleted (i.e. some profiles have plenty of bounty reports still in their profiles, others one-liners trash, etc).
vphasitha01
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 174
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 09, 2018, 08:01:35 AM
#4
Another great work (again..) Smiley. So after looking back at your analysis, I have two questions

1) How you derived the posting segments (eg: Very Heavy >=5 posts per day). Because I believed that threshold number matters the most and it will clearly affect the data when we move to the comparison or talking about percentages.

2) Can we cross-referenced the posts of the users(636+1033+973) actually having negative posting state with posts that got deleted on ANN/ Bounty threads?

 
DdmrDdmr
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 10802
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 09, 2018, 07:00:19 AM
#3
Quote from: LoyceV on August 09, 2018, 06:39:38 AM
<...>
"NewMerit" in your table is the total amount of Merit earned since its introduction. Shouldn't that be the amount of Merit earned in the period between those two profile snapshots?
<...>
Thanks, I got the wrong column there. It's since been corrected.

Quote
Can you get me a list of all 1033 Member accounts that lost posts? I'd like to cross-reference them to the ones that earned exactly 10 Merit.
I'll get to it in a while (after lunch) and give you a google sheet link to the data.
LoyceV
legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 09, 2018, 06:39:38 AM
#2
(quote taken from your deleted thread, now there's more to read again Cheesy)
Quote from: DdmrDdmr on August 09, 2018, 06:21:53 AM
What I’ve initially done is compare the database snapshots on merited user profiles for 06/08/2018 and 06/07/2018. I wanted to see how much people post on average on a daily basis for the month between the two snapshot dates.
~
I guess we wanted to see the list of posters in the "very heavy" user segment, so here it goes (NewPost -> number of posts in a month):
Code:
user_id   name                     rank                NewPost   merit     NewMerit    url
"NewMerit" in your table is the total amount of Merit earned since its introduction, until last Friday. Shouldn't that be the amount of Merit earned in the period between those two profile snapshots? This has been fixed.

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on August 09, 2018, 06:23:13 AM
a surprisingly high 17,77% have a decrement their post count during the month.
My guess would be Mods are more active lately cleaning up Spam Megathreads.

Quote
That is quite a lot, even more so considering that we’re talking about merited users.
Two days ago, I realized almost all 2053 accounts with exactly 10 Merit must have been Merit trading. I think I'll make a thread on this later, that's a very large percentage of all new Member accounts.
And if that's true, it doesn't surprise me many of them lose posts when Spam Megathreads are deleted.

Can you get me a list of all 1033 Member accounts that lost posts? I'd like to cross-reference them to the ones that earned exactly 10 Merit.
DdmrDdmr
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 10802
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
Re: Analysis – Posts per month average for Merited members
August 09, 2018, 06:23:13 AM
#1
1.   Introduction

I wanted to see posting habits of forum members (volume wise) in general. In order to do so, we either need the complete posting history (no way I’m going to scrape that), or a couple of database snapshots to compare. The information that I keep track of is all related to members that have at least been awarded 1 sMerit, so that is the base for the following study.

What I’ve done is play around with 3 merited user profile snapshot databases:
-   06/08/2018 (normally it should have been 03/08/2018, but I was away for a few days).
-   06/07/2018
-   08/06/2018
Now using these three snapshots, we can derive some interesting information concerning posting volumes, associated ranks and merit.

On this occasion, the information is presented in tabular mode, since graphics seem more difficult to follow and I have discarded them in favour of tables.


2.   Posting Segment distribution

What I’ve initially done is compare the database snapshots on merited user profiles for 06/08/2018 and 06/07/2018. I wanted to see how much people post on average on a daily basis for the month between the two snapshot dates. After studying the information, I derived the following segments:

01. Very Heavy:      >= 5 posts per day during the last month.
02. Heavy:            >= 3 and <5 posts per day during the last month.
03. Mid:                >= 1 and <3 posts per day during the last month.
04. Low:              >0 and <1 posts per day during the last month.
05. Zero:              0 posts   per day during the last month.
06. Negative:       <0 posts per day during the last month (deleted greater than created).
07. New to Merit:   They appear on the 06/08/2018 snapshot, but not on 06/07/2018 snapshot (therefore, cannot derive incremental posts).

We could argue on the segment definitions, buy I find them adequate after studying the data.The distribution of merited users according to this distribution is as follows:



What’s interesting to see is that there are 198 heavy users making >= 5 posts per day on average (more on that later).
In order to rank-up, on the activity side, we should be creating an average of 1 post per day. Nevertheless, only 20,74% of merited users do that (segments 01, 02 and 03). What’s more, 28,06% have not posted during the last month (holiday break?), and a surprisingly high 17,77% have a decrement their post count during the month. That is quite a lot, even more so considering that we’re talking about merited users.

I guess we wanted to see the list of posters in the "very heavy" user segment, so here it goes (NewPost -> number of posts in a month; NewMerit-> in 1 month):
Code:
user_id   name                     rank                NewPost   merit     NewMerit  url
1176794   ChiNgadOr                Full Member         1130      119       0         https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/chingador-1176794
1068464   Xal0lex                  Staff               954       225       31        https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/xal0lex-1068464
1719931   Custterol                Jr. Member          725       2         0         https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/custterol-1719931
1773383   tumis                    Jr. Member          550       1         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1773383
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143168    TheQuin                  Hero Member         358       650       24        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=143168
956126    KingScorpio              Sr. Member          354       270       5         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=956126
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1000199   krogothmanhattan         Sr. Member          301       694       35        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1000199
1412697   vanilaice                Jr. Member          300       2         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1412697
114706    mymenace                 Legendary           297       1057      17        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=114706
1257516   Rosewater Foundation     Full Member         296       194       37        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1257516
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2161892   juraangel                Jr. Member          283       1         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2161892
1464627   cryptohipo               Jr. Member          280       1         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1464627
883221    termion                  Hero Member         279       531       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=883221
698159    Jet Cash                 Legendary           276       1091      102       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=698159
1138114   SalmanMJ9                Member              270       12        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1138114
382413    xandry                   Staff               270       1023      1         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=382413
155345    gentlemand               Legendary           267       1198      22        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=155345
511692    BitcoinTurk              Full Member         267       205       8         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=511692
1411023   virendarnagpal           Jr. Member          266       4         2         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1411023
181806    HairyMaclairy            Hero Member         266       549       54        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=181806
994859    CryptoBry                Sr. Member          266       272       1         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=994859
1333278   mycrypto93               Jr. Member          263       3         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1333278
395583    [email protected]        Sr. Member          262       251       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=395583
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507856    LeGaulois                Copper Member       255       793       14        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=507856
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252510    JayJuanGee               Legendary           250       1303      24        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=252510
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1143728   Spazzer                  Member              176       88        24        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1143728
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379487    LFC_Bitcoin              Copper Member       168       1112      15        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=379487
1538848   Zedxxx                   Member              168       20        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1538848
802442    boyptc                   Hero Member         168       511       2         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=802442
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554       Elwar                    Legendary           168       1218      46        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=554
867786    HCP                      Hero Member         167       902       65        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=867786
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1190616   ANDREW 555               Jr. Member          166       7         2         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1190616
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350580    irfan_pak10              Copper Member       164       1060      0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=350580
1153568   voinnov111               Full Member         164       102       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1153568
1214555   26FISCH_RU               Member              163       10        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1214555
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579628    bob123                   Sr. Member          162       492       42        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=579628
931468    recusant2000             Jr. Member          162       2         1         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=931468
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874254    game-protect             Hero Member         160       503       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=874254
1193825   mikolsoon                Member              160       12        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1193825
1130307   slackovic                Full Member         160       201       10        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1130307
1386572   jamesashmore1964         Jr. Member          159       1         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1386572
1333897   Dorbaraco                Member              159       10        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1333897
779106    Barcode_                 Staff               159       540       18        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=779106
84521     Welsh                    Staff               159       1318      22        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=84521
1548994   vipganyan                Copper Member       158       110       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1548994
355683    BluRPie                  Hero Member         158       504       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=355683
1755885   DispatchLabs             Jr. Member          158       3         2         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1755885
334783    seoincorporation         Legendary           157       1131      55        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=334783
833246    BitPotus                 Hero Member         157       527       6         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=833246
51478     mezzomix                 Legendary           157       1075      9         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=51478
2765      morrisby25               Member              156       10        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2765
1382847   HMember                  Member              156       10        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1382847
1222973   cryptobali               Member              155       11        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1222973
1302804   balonka01                Member              155       12        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1302804

To my amazement, the top poster on the list,ChiNgadOr, is from my local board (although he posts in sections I barely visit there such as Ann threads). Second on the lists is Xal0lex, a staff member on the Russian board who does some heavy work cleaning up his local thread. The third person on the list is an Ann thread owner, Custterol.
I recognize some forum members on the list immediately : mdayonliner, TheQuin, LoyceV, krogothmanhattan, Jet Cash, xandry, TryNinja, Gothorum, LeGaulois, coinlocket$, JayJuanGee, The Pharmacist, digaran, suchmoon, o_e_l_e_o, hugeblack, stompix, hilariousetc, pugman, LFC_Bitcoin, Welsh, and seoincorporation. These are known to me mostly due to their posts, and probably also for posting often and therefore being visually acknowledgeable (a bit like a personal brand I’d say).

I though seeing some (top 10 due to post limit restrictions I believe) of the profiles with most deleted posts in the last month could be interesting too. Many of them are bounty/ann related deletions by the looks of where the remaining posts are located. Others are reset accounts (sold or such):
Code:
user_id   name                     rank                posts     PostLoss  merit     NewMerit  url
1071531   serneo                   Full Member         664       -1647     101       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1071531
1014315   Mungurul                 Sr. Member          640       -595      254       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1014315
1310923   set08air                 Newbie              17        -437      1         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1310923
1007399   SSowellSVT               Full Member         168       -422      101       0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1007399
1212376   dbijoy                   Jr. Member          284       -305      1         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1212376
2189580   anunymint                Brand new           0         -271      127       52       https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2189580
1495332   Pranimbo                 Jr. Member          966       -259      3         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1495332
1411175   cryptographer954         Member              62        -236      10        0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1411175
1655669   CoinRanker               Jr. Member          90        -227      2         0         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1655669

3.   Posting Segment distribution by Rank

If we breakdown the Posting Segment distribution by Rank, we get the following table:


Nothing too remarkable on this breakdown, since distribution by rank also depends on how many members there are per rank, but I’ve highlighted in yellow how the negative post count concentrates on the lower merited ranks as expected.


4.   Posting Segment distribution – 2 consecutive months

The following table shows us how many forum members actually maintain their posting segment for 2 consecutive months, and/or the segment movements that occur. I’ve also added here the total merit gained by each segment combination over the two month period, and averaged to keep it simple but comparable.



Roughly half of the forum members maintain their posting segment for two months in a row, with the exception of the "01. Very Heavy" segment which keeps it up for 73,74% of its forum members, and surprisingly 39,51% of the "06. Negative” segment do too.

The average Merit per segment combination is higher the more posts that are made. This is a chilly conclusion and with a lack of context would be interpreted the wrong way. The base of the analysis is that of users with at least 1 sMerit. The best posters are therefore included here and therefore, it is logical to see more merit given to heavy posters since they have more decent posts that postulate to being merited. This only works in this context, and should not be extended to posting in general on the forum for all users (merited and unmerited).

By the way, I’m a "03. Mid" looking over my last month’s postings, but was "02. Heavy’" the previous month.
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