Topic: Analyst Proves Bitcoin's Price Not Bound to 4-Year Halving Cycles (Read 261 times)
Am I the only one reading this and actually finding that he's basically kind of proven himself wrong? Then again, how many halvings has Bitcoin had that could truly be considered useful to predicting market impact, if any? 2016 one for sure, but in 2012, can we really say that there was a global and diverse Bitcoin market? Even if we accept that, that's TWO events to read from. The bare minimum for pattern comparison.
April 08, 2020, 03:35:00 AM
Let us wait until this potential four year cycle is complete? It's beyond pointless calling it now. There's a lot of weirdness that could happen between now and the end of 2021 both good and bad.
If BTC breaks below the 2018 lows, there's a good chance the cycle is dead. Until that happens, I figure the market is still staying the course. This idea still predicts a bubble in 2021:
April 08, 2020, 02:30:26 AM
I think that is what happens with bitcoin, and if we check on history, although every 4 years almost have similar movements, the line is not the same, but the line will go up to the higher price. And sometimes, the chart will be different but the increase will almost the same because the halving time will affect the process increase. The next halving time will not be the same as previous halving, and that can cause the price to jump higher than before, and perhaps, the price will pass the last ATH. But let's wait for what will happen with the next halving.
April 08, 2020, 12:50:43 AM
In-Bitcoin Having which in some people's Opinions think there will be a positive Bitcoin price change, Other Analysis says Bitcoin is Not Bound by this 4 Years Cycle that it Must shift up the price is Not true that Bitcoin only Bound on Market Factors for the price Changes
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
Halving does have an effect on the prices of bitcoin.
You should check my post here : https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54107872
I have attached the same image down below to have quick look on the history of Bitcoin Halving and how it has affected the prices really.
April 08, 2020, 12:42:07 AM
Isn't it obvious? There are plenty of variable which affect Bitcoin price, bitcoin halving is only one among many variables.
That's true, but halving is one of the major variable that can affect the bitcoin's price so bad. After a 4-year halving cycles, everything will go back to its normal state where bitcoin's price is unpredictable. Expect a huge increase in bitcoin's price before halving, but it will only last for a week or 2 weeks. Halving feels like a leap year to me as it is sometimes waited by the people to occur because they see it as an opportunity to sell bitcoin. Yet, its volatility is still a problem for us bitcoin users as its price in the market isn't easy to predict.
COVID-19 was one variable that no expect and IMO it affect Bitcoin price negatively.
The Covid-19 pandemic is a problem where we don't expect it to exist because it suddenly came into our world without any idea, how? This virus destroyed the economy of each and every country affected by this. Some countries experiences market crash as well as their budget for this crisis is somehow affected and should've been distributed properly. It really affects bitcoin price because most of the users are holding and some converts it into fiat for a personal use just to survive this quarantine.
April 08, 2020, 12:12:10 AM
Anyone can write anything as a free analyst. This year's bitcoin halving will sky-rock the price of bitcoin. Let they who don't believe sell off their bitcoin and expect to buy cheap. They would have succeeded in shooting their-selves on the leg. I personally believe halving has effect on the price of bitcoin.
April 08, 2020, 12:07:49 AM
we can not call something that has happened only one time a "cycle". it was a one time thing that it took bitcoin 4 year to get on full rallying mode and end up with a similar big bubble at the end that also popped similarly to last time.
if you look past the previous time (before 2013) you can see that there has not been any cycles. all we had was a series of events from 2013 to 2018 which had some similarities but a lot of differences too. this is what you call "cycle" which is wrong.
if you look past the previous time (before 2013) you can see that there has not been any cycles. all we had was a series of events from 2013 to 2018 which had some similarities but a lot of differences too. this is what you call "cycle" which is wrong.
April 07, 2020, 11:51:19 PM
In-Bitcoin Having which in some people's Opinions think there will be a positive Bitcoin price change, Other Analysis says Bitcoin is Not Bound by this 4 Years Cycle that it Must shift up the price is Not true that Bitcoin only Bound on Market Factors for the price Changes
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
This is what we called Freedom to Give our analysis and opinion and i think His is respectable but things happens in Volatile market like this that won't favor everything that we think will comes out.Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
Yeah this Halving has been expected to bring Big changes in market and mostly are positive but expect that also this Pandemic is affecting everything in the world now,from products to services and of course since Bitcoin is Peoples Option to use then affect also comes to us here in this market.
But for me we have still long way to Go and Halving time is not instantly giving us Bull market because the effect may take time before reflecting just like 2017 when the Bull starts huge in 3rd quarter.
April 07, 2020, 10:36:39 PM
Any people can have any number of opinion and perspective to look at same amount of data. Bitcoin price does not follows any specific formula and it's price depends on a large number of factors, some controlled by the holders and some by other authorities and some are not in control of anyone. So, no one can prove anything as every of those study would have some shortcomings. There are many other studies that prove his study wrong. And that doesn't make them right either.
April 07, 2020, 10:12:42 PM
In-Bitcoin Having which in some people's Opinions think there will be a positive Bitcoin price change, Other Analysis says Bitcoin is Not Bound by this 4 Years Cycle that it Must shift up the price is Not true that Bitcoin only Bound on Market Factors for the price Changes
Of course, Bitcoin's price is not bound to increase simply because the block reward is halved. If there is more selling than buying, then whether there is halving or not, the price will certainly go down. If the interest of the people toward Bitcoin will shrink, the price will follow suit regardless of the number of halvings Bitcoin has already undergone. And we all know that Bitcoin's price is also affected by news from all around the world. I guess the price increase is basically perceived to happen after halving because the circulating supply is increasing 50% slower than before. That is assumed to bring value to Bitcoin.
April 02, 2020, 11:50:09 AM
Bitcoin's price is bound to what we agree to pay for it. That's it. Best and most proven theory out there.
Price is affected by our minds, by our psychology. If we get into fear, we're going to head toward waves of uncertainity just like the last few weeks. Because gold and silver cannot be found in many places anymore, expect BTC to bounce soon. Add halving next to that and it might look spectaculary.
Price is affected by our minds, by our psychology. If we get into fear, we're going to head toward waves of uncertainity just like the last few weeks. Because gold and silver cannot be found in many places anymore, expect BTC to bounce soon. Add halving next to that and it might look spectaculary.
April 02, 2020, 11:07:10 AM
Let us wait until this potential four year cycle is complete? It's beyond pointless calling it now. There's a lot of weirdness that could happen between now and the end of 2021 both good and bad.
April 02, 2020, 10:57:35 AM
We have to look at what we know about Halving. Halving means reduced mining rewards. This is simple mathematics, the number of BTCs that will be released in the next period will decrease by 50%. So starting from halving, BTC inflation will be cut in half. And yes, if the inflation of what has a monetary value decreases, its value may increase. I'm saying "may" because it doesn't mean certainty.
When we examine before and after halving to date, we follow a 4-year general cycle as 2-year price decrease and 2-year price increase. (General view.) Therefore, it is not reasonable for me to argue that something that has been working so far today. If Bitcoin cannot reach a new ATH by the end of 2021, then we have enough data to talk about this theory.
When we examine before and after halving to date, we follow a 4-year general cycle as 2-year price decrease and 2-year price increase. (General view.) Therefore, it is not reasonable for me to argue that something that has been working so far today. If Bitcoin cannot reach a new ATH by the end of 2021, then we have enough data to talk about this theory.
April 02, 2020, 10:37:21 AM
The influence corona virus outbreak caused the world economy to decline, many large investors chose to save money not BTC. This is based on panic and the disbursement of large funds. For BTC prices I think will return with a slow time.
April 02, 2020, 10:04:14 AM
there is not such thing as a "4 Years Cycle". this is a term that the same so called "analysts" came up with to appear as experts and other newbies are contradicting them to appear experts just like the same newbie group.
the fact is that bitcoin is on the rise, whenever there is a massive bubble we end up seeing a long downtime which ended about 1.5 years ago when price reached $3200 and price has been on the rise ever since.
that doesn't mean we can't see a drop here and there and some FUD that postpones the rise for a little while though.
the fact is that bitcoin is on the rise, whenever there is a massive bubble we end up seeing a long downtime which ended about 1.5 years ago when price reached $3200 and price has been on the rise ever since.
that doesn't mean we can't see a drop here and there and some FUD that postpones the rise for a little while though.
April 02, 2020, 09:52:40 AM
It's a difficult question about the impact of various things on the price. I think that halving can affect the price as a major event, but it's not bound to happen. Why not? Well, because mining doesn't affect the price directly either. It's easy to think that since miners receive 2x fewer rewards for the same effort the price is bound to rise to make mining profitable again. But it's not bound to rise, mining might just become unprofitable and the price can go down. What directly changes the price are buy and sell orders. And they are usually triggered by news, either good or bad. So IMO it's media coverage that makes the biggest difference these days, not some objective stuff we can explain.
April 02, 2020, 09:20:00 AM
In-Bitcoin Having which in some people's Opinions think there will be a positive Bitcoin price change, Other Analysis says Bitcoin is Not Bound by this 4 Years Cycle that it Must shift up the price is Not true that Bitcoin only Bound on Market Factors for the price Changes
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
Bitcoin's price is bound to have several factors behind it's incline in price and not just one.Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
We can't say if halving is one of the factors behind bitcoin's price or not but it sure is a leading factor meaning the halving of bitcoin leads to have a rise in bitcoin's price. When the halving occurs, the mining rewards gets decreased creating a demand in bitcoin and hence the price increases.
So halving does have an affect on bitcoin's price.
April 02, 2020, 08:00:01 AM
In-Bitcoin Having which in some people's Opinions think there will be a positive Bitcoin price change, Other Analysis says Bitcoin is Not Bound by this 4 Years Cycle that it Must shift up the price is Not true that Bitcoin only Bound on Market Factors for the price Changes
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
The halving itself is not a factor for the Bitcoin price.The hype and expectations around the halving are the real factor that might pump the price.There's another factor-we don't know how the miners will handle the reduced mining rewards.If you remember 2016-2017,the Bitcoin Core blockchain was attacked with tiny spam transactions,which led to increasing transaction fees.Many people were blaming the miners.Some people were blaming Roger Ver and the BTC forks that were happening back then.There might be another attack.
April 02, 2020, 06:33:07 AM
This guy just proved that he has an opinion.
Ofc halving has an affect on bitcoin price. If reward would still be 50 btc per block, there would be much more bitcoins in circulation, so the price would go down.
Ofc halving has an affect on bitcoin price. If reward would still be 50 btc per block, there would be much more bitcoins in circulation, so the price would go down.
April 02, 2020, 05:36:32 AM
In-Bitcoin Having which in some people's Opinions think there will be a positive Bitcoin price change, Other Analysis says Bitcoin is Not Bound by this 4 Years Cycle that it Must shift up the price is Not true that Bitcoin only Bound on Market Factors for the price Changes
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
Read More On::https://news.bitcoin.com/between-bitcoin-halvings-bitcoins-price-not-bound-4-year/
Jump to: