And now what? Long slow slide? | Bitcointalksearch.org

hannesnaude

full member

Activity: 169

Merit: 100

Firstbits : 1Hannes

Quote from: Spekulatius on August 19, 2012, 12:49:39 PM

Oh man this post is so full or errors. Where to begin..??

Ok,

1. The bubble of June '11 burst about a week before the gox hack.
2. No change of fundamentals occured back then, just a totally normal rally exhaustion. How long do you think such a rall could have continued?
3. That major player you speak of has not even sold yet (at least I can see no evidence of ONE MAYOR PLAYER selling as of now)
4. There is bad news of bitcoin in the news almost every day. Referring to the closure of BS&T, thats bad news indeed.

1. The decline from ~$30 to $17, yes. The long slow slide referred to in the title of THIS thread, no.
2. Sure. Having THE BTC/USD exchange closed for trading for several days and realising that the security of the third party that you've been trusting with 10s of thousands of dollars is poor to say the least is not a change in fundamentals.
3. There's no definitive way to tell whether the sell-off was initiated by a single major player or a more organic event. So you've got me there, I was speculating, wrong sub-forum I guess, oh wait...
4. Well let's agree to disagree on this one. Time will tell. If Pirate pays all his customers in full and on time I will gladly admit my error. I trust you will do the same if he doesn't. Wink

sturle

legendary

Activity: 1437

Merit: 1002

https://bitmynt.no

This is very simple.

1. A bubble was forming. This should be evident to everyone.

2. Pirate is already low on coins, and got problems with his liquidity. He decides to pull a last stunt to be able to pay back what he owns.

3. Pirate announces the end of his famous fund, and sells all he's still got. He knows this will make the bubble burst. And it does.

4. Pirate buys the coins he needs to pay back everyone.

5. The price stabilize on a higher level than before the bubble started rising. Some of the coins from Pirate will be sold on the market. On the other hand Pirate has stopped playing with them.

Pirate is heavy in on bets against his own default. Thousands of BTC. Not defaulting and cashing in those bets may be his best option.

runeks

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1008

I ain't crying. I'm clapping my hands! I miss $2 coins.

stevegee58

legendary

Activity: 916

Merit: 1003

Boy it's amazing how fast you guys got used to such a rapidly overinflated price level. Now the crying sets in.

runeks

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1008

Quote from: notme on August 19, 2012, 12:52:51 PM

Quote from: runeks on August 19, 2012, 12:51:46 PM

Damn people! Anyone watching the collapse right now? We've seen a 1 USD/BTC drop in the last 30 minutes!

FTFY

7.80

It's lingering around ~7.80-8.00 jumping back and forth.

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

A correction is healthy. Allowing Bitcoin to crash to the lowest point in the last 6 months is irresponsible. I wish Wall Street would allow it, then we would be done with the stock market. But what the hell, I'll keep buying at whatever price it's at because anything below $10,000 is a bargain in the long run.

the joint

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1020

BTC are oversold at the moment. It may fall further at which point it will become ridiculously oversold. When we hit $12 and beyond on the way up, BTC were ridiculously overbought. This 'crash' is nothing to worry about, but it's a slight wake-up call for those who think BTC price is ready for lift-off.

Remember: There was nothing outside of speculation to justify the rise to $15. This correction is healthy.

My prediction is come next week we're going to bounce hard. For those that are waiting for funds to arrive in their exchange accounts, there is a good incentive to prolong this drop so they can buy back in low.

Technomage

legendary

Activity: 2184

Merit: 1056

Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

This is the correction that happens BEFORE, not after. Accumulate cheap coins while it's still possible. This might literally be the last chance.

Kupsi

legendary

Activity: 1193

Merit: 1003

9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

Quote from: runeks on August 19, 2012, 12:51:46 PM

Damn people! Anyone watching the collapse right now? We've seen a 0.75 BTC drop in the last 30 minutes!

Relax. It's only 10k BTC up to 10.40.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: runeks on August 19, 2012, 12:51:46 PM

Damn people! Anyone watching the collapse right now? We've seen a 1 USD/BTC drop in the last 30 minutes!

FTFY

runeks

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1008

Damn people! Anyone watching the collapse right now? We've seen a 0.75 BTC drop in the last 30 minutes!

Spekulatius

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

Quote from: hannesnaude on August 19, 2012, 08:44:34 AM

Last years crash was due to a change in fundamentals. Until such time as you can get paid in bitcoins and buy everything you need in your day-to-day life for bitcoins a secure and functioning exchange will be a critical part of the bitcoin ecosystem. Mt Gox lost the trust of the community in one fell swoop and had to gradually earn it back.

This years crash is due simply to a big player dumping bitcoins and (intentionally?) setting of a selling panic. There has been no negative news. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market as to how the BST drama will end this week, and how the ending will affect the market. But compared to the loss of the major exchange, this is just a blip. Lots of BST "investors" will be very disappointed this week and some of them will inevitably want to cash out of bitcoin as a result, but for the most part they will have no coins to sell. So I fail to see how even the worst case can approximate last year's drama.

Oh man this post is so full or errors. Where to begin..??

Ok,

1. The bubble of June '11 burst about a week before the gox hack.
2. No change of fundamentals occured back then, just a totally normal rally exhaustion. How long do you think such a rall could have continued?
3. That major player you speak of has not even sold yet (at least I can see no evidence of ONE MAYOR PLAYER selling as of now)
4. There is bad news of bitcoin in the news almost every day. Referring to the closure of BS&T, thats bad news indeed.

I recommend this good read to everyone:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths

No offence, but seriously read it Wink

bitcon

legendary

Activity: 2212

Merit: 1008

markets rise and markets fall. don't worry, it will go back up. just a matter of when.

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

Like before. Price drops. Great time to buy! Little pop up. Price drops. Back up the truck! Little pop up. Price drops. Catch falling knife maybe. Oh well, cheap coins at discount. Little pop up. Price drops. I am not getting back in... Lost 40% of money... Price might finally start bottoming soon.

Maged

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1015

Quote from: hannesnaude on August 19, 2012, 08:44:34 AM

There has been no negative news.

What if I told you that a business that was responsible for about 10% of the daily MtGox volume suddenly closed? Would that be negative news? Because that's what happened.

If we're lucky, we might start seeing a slow slide from here on out. However, it is also likely that there will be nothing slow about this at all until $6.

hannesnaude

full member

Activity: 169

Merit: 100

Firstbits : 1Hannes

Last years crash was due to a change in fundamentals. Until such time as you can get paid in bitcoins and buy everything you need in your day-to-day life for bitcoins a secure and functioning exchange will be a critical part of the bitcoin ecosystem. Mt Gox lost the trust of the community in one fell swoop and had to gradually earn it back.

This years crash is due simply to a big player dumping bitcoins and (intentionally?) setting of a selling panic. There has been no negative news. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market as to how the BST drama will end this week, and how the ending will affect the market. But compared to the loss of the major exchange, this is just a blip. Lots of BST "investors" will be very disappointed this week and some of them will inevitably want to cash out of bitcoin as a result, but for the most part they will have no coins to sell. So I fail to see how even the worst case can approximate last year's drama.

stevegee58

legendary

Activity: 916

Merit: 1003

Unlimited upside! BTFD!

proudhon

legendary

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Quote from: zby on August 19, 2012, 08:08:21 AM

That was kind of similar to last years June - will the correction be similar as well?

Yes, I think so.

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

That was kind of similar to last years June - will the correction be similar as well? Personally I don't think so - but it depends on external factors.

Topic: And now what? Long slow slide? (Read 1710 times)