Another Bubble popped? | Bitcointalksearch.org

exstasie

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Quote from: LexLuther on March 17, 2018, 12:30:09 AM

I know the drop has caused a lot of consternation for recent investors, but people just getting in like myself are benefiting as we dollar cost average into larger positions. I believe long term in the tech and growth in this space, so having lower prices and a little time to develop a position is helpful

That's exactly the right attitude for a long term investor, as long as you can stomach the drawdowns.

The problem with some "hodlers" is that they psych themselves up into holding through the bull markets and then start to lose faith during the bear markets. And they end up selling the bottom in despair to stronger hands. There's nothing to be done about it....just typical market cycles. But it's something to keep in mind.

When we neared the market bottoms in July 2013 and August 2015 in particular, I recall feeling true despair as a lot of old hodlers gave up hope.

LexLuther

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I know the drop has caused a lot of consternation for recent investors, but people just getting in like myself are benefiting as we dollar cost average into larger positions. I believe long term in the tech and growth in this space, so having lower prices and a little time to develop a position is helpful

amwer

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"I think we are going to see Bitcoin hit $ 60,000 mark, but I think we are going to see bitcoin hit $ 5,000 mark," says Hope, co-founder and president of TenX, it is a firm which wants to make virtual currency cost easier for people .
Bitcoin's price has dropped down now. So it will have to wait a long time to grow.

exstasie

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Quote from: exstasie on March 16, 2018, 02:57:39 PM

We're four hours from the next candle close. I'm hoping that bulls can at least hold this area if not push higher into the close, but we're hitting resistance at $8,600 (the breakdown level before the plunge to $7,600s). Fingers crossed. This would be a nice 2-bar reversal pattern:

LOL. So we were consolidating below the highs all day. 20 minutes before the daily close, someone market dumped ~1000 BTC on Bitfinex. Instead of confirming the outside bar reversal, the candle closed as a spinning top doji (indicates indecision and pushback from bears).

Classic Wall Street shenanigans. Roll Eyes

exstasie

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Quote from: exstasie on March 15, 2018, 04:09:02 AM

First signs of life off the $7,600s:

The daily is still in the shitter, but if we can close near $8,200+ then we've got a dragonfly doji. The upside here is that the market is heavily short right now.

The daily closed as a dragonfly doji. We're four hours from the next candle close. I'm hoping that bulls can at least hold this area if not push higher into the close, but we're hitting resistance at $8,600 (the breakdown level before the plunge to $7,600s). Fingers crossed. This would be a nice 2-bar reversal pattern:

Ideally, we'd see a V-bottom right back to $9,000. So this isn't ideal, but it's also not the failure that bears were expecting.

exstasie

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8% bounce from the lows so far. Not bad.

Here's a couple hopium ideas for the hodlers. These haven't been invalidated. Yet. Lips sealed

Pitchfork to $33k from @CarpeNoctom:
https://twitter.com/CarpeNoctom/status/974119627398762496

Bullish fractal from @joezabb:
https://twitter.com/joezabb/status/973994490095693824

terrific

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Quote from: lingwistiko on March 13, 2018, 08:04:07 AM

Market price fluctuations are just normal in the cryptoworld and there are lots of factors affecting to it. We can't also tell how long this situation stays and all we can do is just wait for the better days to come.

And for those who keeps on telling it that it's a bubble, it isn't. The bubble issue about bitcoin will never die.
There are people who keep this argument alive, I know you can't do something so you are making this for argument's sake.
At least the price was still higher than last year's price, how can you recognize that?

newwest

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★777Coin.com★ Fun BTC Casino!

Quote from: pinky on March 14, 2018, 05:39:13 PM

This one isnt bubble but there are some similarities between popped bubble and long term correction. As a trader i advice to keep holding our coins because there isnt any fundamental reason to sell it for cheap price. Buying high and selling low is dangerous and foolest way to lose money in markets.

This is obviously for me not a bubble or bitcoin is not at all a bubble to be precise. People who do not understand or fear are those who call it a bubble and trying to create a panic in the market. BTC price have started to recover and crossed 8200$ now and should be 10k by march end.

exstasie

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Quote from: exstasie on March 14, 2018, 04:58:39 PM

It's still possible this is a larger whipsaw, but it's way too risky to knife catch in this environment. Unfortunately, the chart has turned bearish on the 4H, 1D and 1W charts. And bears have time on their side. Nothing to do but wait for signs of life from the bulls.

First signs of life off the $7,600s:

15min inverse H&S completed, pushed into resistance. Maybe we'll pull back now and form a higher degree H&S on the hourly. The volume profile looks right.

Dragonfly doji and follow-through on the 4H chart:

Bulls have their work cut out for them, though. Looking for more confirmation. The daily is still in the shitter, but if we can close near $8,200+ then we've got a dragonfly doji. The upside here is that the market is heavily short right now.

sjefdeklerk

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Quote from: pinky on March 14, 2018, 05:39:13 PM

This one isnt bubble

Whahaha bitcoin not a bubble. You can't use it (almost no shop accepts it), it can only process 14 transactions per second, it doesn't scale so it will never work anyway, lots of countries have banned it already and you tell me at $8200 it's not a bubble. That's funny.

This sir, will go into the history books as the biggest bubble in history. Hundreds years from now they will still talk about this bubble. Mark my words.

pinky

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This one isnt bubble but there are some similarities between popped bubble and long term correction. As a trader i advice to keep holding our coins because there isnt any fundamental reason to sell it for cheap price. Buying high and selling low is dangerous and foolest way to lose money in markets.

Jacques_Bittard

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.

Bitcoin bubble doesn't pop. The air is released in a controlled manner. The bubble filled until December 2017, the rest is just letting out of air in a way that profits those in control the best.

exstasie

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Quote from: Proton2233 on March 14, 2018, 12:22:57 PM

Why is everyone panicking?

High-momentum selloffs will do that. We've been stair-stepping down; bounces have been really subdued. That can do a number on peoples' emotions when holding losing positions.

It's still possible this is a larger whipsaw, but it's way too risky to knife catch in this environment. Unfortunately, the chart has turned bearish on the 4H, 1D and 1W charts. And bears have time on their side. Nothing to do but wait for signs of life from the bulls.

Latest from John Bollinger (1D timeframe):

Quote

No confirmation of a bottom ever showed so now it is time to see if we get a W bottom. So far, not looking like it. #BTCUSD

.....and there goes $8,000. Undecided

Proton2233

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Quote from: eann014 on March 13, 2018, 09:22:28 AM

Yeah, bitcoin price is getting lower every day; hope that it can recover this Month or April. So we can get profit for these months and save some of it. I want to gain profit even a little so I can save some of it for the needs or my son in his school. I want him to have a good school next year so I really want to earn more so I can give what he really needs.

Why is everyone panicking? I do not see anything terrible in the fact that the price is reduced. There are always people who sell a lot of coins. Illiquid money sterilizes the banking system. There is no such mechanism in bitcoins. Therefore, we will always see such fluctuations. We must have patience. If you don't have money to buy some coins at a low price then just keep your coins and don't sell them. This will ease the pressure on prices and you will see an increase.

MoonIsBlue

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Quote from: South Park on March 14, 2018, 11:44:23 AM

Quote from: gabmen on March 12, 2018, 08:02:22 AM

Quote from: mersal on March 11, 2018, 11:33:00 AM

Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

I don't consider this as a bubble because the price is already recovered an now lying in the range abouve $9500 so it looks like a normal fluctuation caused by rumors.So it is a good time to grab the bitcoin for cheaper price.

Well you have to understand what's causing these dumps. It's noy just about a popping bubble. Mt.gox selloff dumped a huge amount of btc enough to move the market, at the same time making a lot of people uneasy. Look at it now that its confirmed there won't be any sell offs until sept. Prices are recovering to say the least

To me this is very obviously an attempt to buy time from banks and governments they are trying to suppress the price of bitcoin in any way they can, they tried to use the future markets and it had an effect but it was not enough now they are dumping coins and it did have an effect but is still not enough so they are leaving the threat that coins are going to be sold in the future so investors are afraid of buying bitcoin until that time.

Futures aren't some boogeyman responsible for price crashes.

South Park

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Quote from: gabmen on March 12, 2018, 08:02:22 AM

Quote from: mersal on March 11, 2018, 11:33:00 AM

Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

I don't consider this as a bubble because the price is already recovered an now lying in the range abouve $9500 so it looks like a normal fluctuation caused by rumors.So it is a good time to grab the bitcoin for cheaper price.

Well you have to understand what's causing these dumps. It's noy just about a popping bubble. Mt.gox selloff dumped a huge amount of btc enough to move the market, at the same time making a lot of people uneasy. Look at it now that its confirmed there won't be any sell offs until sept. Prices are recovering to say the least

To me this is very obviously an attempt to buy time from banks and governments they are trying to suppress the price of bitcoin in any way they can, they tried to use the future markets and it had an effect but it was not enough now they are dumping coins and it did have an effect but is still not enough so they are leaving the threat that coins are going to be sold in the future so investors are afraid of buying bitcoin until that time.

exstasie

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Quote from: Sukovsky on March 13, 2018, 05:17:41 AM

Most people that say this wasn't a bubble weren't here in 2013/2014. It's exactly the fucking same. Denyers, this time it's differenters, more fundamentals now BLA DI FUCKING BLA.

Let me spell it out for you:

This rally is over. It's going for a big retrace. Try to not be an empty headed shitbag for once and put the 2013 chart over this year's rally. It's the fucking same. The amount of dumb money in this rally is staggering. This is going down. Free fucking tip assholes

The rally is obviously over.

But the rally was obviously over in 2012, April 2013, and December 2013 too. Why do you assume that December 2017 = December 2013? Masterluc, whose track record speaks for itself, sees parallels to 2012.

Also, markets punish as many people as possible. As a general rule: If the market is skewed long, we go down. If the market is skewed short, we go up. With that in mind, then consider where in the cycle we might be comparatively. After each bubble, this is what the initial retracement looked like:

In August 2012, the bull trap = 62%.
In April 2013, the bull trap = 58%.
In January 2014, the bull trap = 78%.
Current bull trap = 41%.

So um, where my OTE retrace? Answer: it hasn't happened yet. Even if this is 2014, have we finished squeezing the early bears and trapping the late bulls? I don't think so.

I suggest studying each historical cycle separately and looking for parallels before assuming that 2018 = 2014 redux.

eann014

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Yeah, bitcoin price is getting lower every day; hope that it can recover this Month or April. So we can get profit for these months and save some of it. I want to gain profit even a little so I can save some of it for the needs or my son in his school. I want him to have a good school next year so I really want to earn more so I can give what he really needs.

Sasuke102001

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That much of a drop is acceptable can be expected in crypto market. Bitcoin prices are still like 9500$ to 9000$, after the huge drop from 20k I didn't see bitcoin going to even 12,000$. Many people had damm high hopes for Bitcoin, like bitcoin market value going upto 30-40k dollars but seeing the current situation it is very unlikely bitcoin will go up that much. Recently the fluctuation has also increased for every cryptocurrency out there.

lingwistiko

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Market price fluctuations are just normal in the cryptoworld and there are lots of factors affecting to it. We can't also tell how long this situation stays and all we can do is just wait for the better days to come.

1Referee

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Quote from: Sukovsky on March 13, 2018, 05:17:41 AM

This rally is over. It's going for a big retrace. Try to not be an empty headed shitbag for once and put the 2013 chart over this year's rally. It's the fucking same. The amount of dumb money in this rally is staggering. This is going down. Free fucking tip assholes

Look at the long term charts, Bitcoin's entire existence has been a rally, and that will continue in the forthcoming years. People should ignore the peaks, since they only display the speculation aspect of this market, which is never a good indicator/metric. If you follow the line of all the previous bottoms, which is more an indicator of the actual value, it clearly shows how much the price has actually gone up throughout the years. People focusing on the peak of $20,000 are fools, because that in no shape or form reflected the market back then, and even not now. In that regard, I would even state that current levels are on the higher side. My personal valuation would be between $7000-$8000 for the market in current state. If the price rallies up another time, we'll likely see that the next bottom is still under the $10,000 level. Free fucking advice peak seekers.

Sukovsky

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Most people that say this wasn't a bubble weren't here in 2013/2014. It's exactly the fucking same. Denyers, this time it's differenters, more fundamentals now BLA DI FUCKING BLA.

Let me spell it out for you:

This rally is over. It's going for a big retrace. Try to not be an empty headed shitbag for once and put the 2013 chart over this year's rally. It's the fucking same. The amount of dumb money in this rally is staggering. This is going down. Free fucking tip assholes

amwer

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"I think we're going to see bitcoin hitting the $60,000 mark, but I also think we're going to see bitcoin hitting the $5,000 mark," said Hosp, co-founder and president of TenX, a firm that wants to make it easier for people to spend virtual currencies.

omonuyak

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

Most time bitcoin bearish market do last for three weeks. I think bitcoin is going to make some progress in weeks to come and we will began to make recovering any moment from now and it has never going to be up to a year before recovery. We are not going to remain with the current ranging market for long term.

gabmen

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Quote from: mersal on March 11, 2018, 11:33:00 AM

Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

I don't consider this as a bubble because the price is already recovered an now lying in the range abouve $9500 so it looks like a normal fluctuation caused by rumors.So it is a good time to grab the bitcoin for cheaper price.

Well you have to understand what's causing these dumps. It's noy just about a popping bubble. Mt.gox selloff dumped a huge amount of btc enough to move the market, at the same time making a lot of people uneasy. Look at it now that its confirmed there won't be any sell offs until sept. Prices are recovering to say the least

mersal

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

I don't consider this as a bubble because the price is already recovered an now lying in the range abouve $9500 so it looks like a normal fluctuation caused by rumors.So it is a good time to grab the bitcoin for cheaper price.

Dodoymabs

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Quote from: Oceat on March 10, 2018, 11:31:00 AM

Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

It seems like a bubble perhaps but i think the banning of Bitcoin in some other countries are the main reason. FUD usually did a huge effect in the market since some people are buying it and i found it normal in a daily basis. Bitcoin should recover its price very soon once there's a good news about of Bitcoin coming. As of today more bad news are coming and it is not helping some of the investors that's why we should've hold it yet.

Well, then we should stop spreading negative news so that people will not be in worries especially those who are new to crypto. We should hold now in order for ths Bitcoin to increase. Bad news must be stopped and we should make this as opportunity to buy coins while it's in dip.

Oceat

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

It seems like a bubble perhaps but i think the banning of Bitcoin in some other countries are the main reason. FUD usually did a huge effect in the market since some people are buying it and i found it normal in a daily basis. Bitcoin should recover its price very soon once there's a good news about of Bitcoin coming. As of today more bad news are coming and it is not helping some of the investors that's why we should've hold it yet.

South Park

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Quote from: Coffee135 on March 08, 2018, 01:29:13 PM

Now a lot of very large players appear in the cryptocurrency market. They concentrate in their hands a lot of capital. This will make the market more unpredictable. We have to be ready for these races will be familiar to us. It doesn't scare me. Each of us can make money of it. But for this you should always have a reserve not to sell the coins at the bottom of the candle.

Yes, bigger players are going to make the market even more volatile there are some of the players that want for the price to go up while others will want the price to go down while we the average user of bitcoin is left in the middle without knowing what to do, this is why holding is recommended as a strategy since it's the one that protects you the most against those changes in direction of the market.

jimbo2000

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Quote from: iv4n on March 08, 2018, 12:35:26 PM

Quote from: jimbo2000 on March 08, 2018, 11:49:50 AM

Quote from: exstasie on March 08, 2018, 03:27:28 AM

Long term, I'm seeing two main possibilities.

Scenario A: My preferred outcome is that we are in a fractal like summer 2012 or late spring 2013. If so, the correction is not over, but the lows may already be in. The plunge to $6,000 may have been the A wave of a bullish triangle. Or it could have been a W wave in a WXY consolidation. Both the 2012 and 2013 fractals had WXY structure where the initial leg down was the bottom. I believe Masterluc favors the 2012 fractal.

Scenario B: The other possibility is that we are still waiting for an 80-90%+ decline from the top over 1-3 years. That the altcoin markets and Google trends are both in utter despair support that idea. Bottom at $3,000 or lower.

Either way, a 90% crash is probably coming. The question for me is, will we go to $100,000 first?! Tongue

Altcoin markets are still up significantly over the last 6 months and google trends remain largely unchanged over the same period. If we remove December through January then the market is relatively stable and actually has a slight growth. Comparing things to the previous high is always going to lead to such conclusions.

Great observation, I will remember that " comparing things to the previous high always will lead to wrong conclusions ". Like always wishing new ATH, everyday new ATH, people would like price to rise all the time and they just to pick up profit when ever they wish, people are fools.
I don't believe in any of this scenarios, rarely I see some scenario to come true. Bitcoin is constantly surprises us and in if we watch bitcoin trough the years that surprises are more positive then negative that trend will last in the future too. Bitcoin is not a bubble, bitcoin price can't be bubble that popped. Its just ordinary market fluctuations get use to that.

It's for exactly this reason that a lot of people instead of plotting the all time highs and drawing their conclusions from this actually look at the lows of the crash. That way you get a much clearer picture of the progression. If 8.4k or so proves to be the bottom this time it's another upwards movement from the 6k bottom that we saw a few weeks ago.

Kidmat

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Bubble popped maybe because of the news came out that price affected to decreased again. Most didnt expected that this bubble will not experience again. Since, we are here in this market we should note and accept to the fact that it is volatile.

perto01

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

bubble-pop would have at least one consequence: more regulation. As an increasing number of people – and even institutional Wall Street investors – join in the bitcoin mania, financial authorities worldwide will adopt a more interventionist stance.

Mateox

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Price is realistic in some way, but some of the drops are maybe caused by this trustee fool of the Mt Gox coins.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.31881752
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-mt-gox-coin-sales-3088050

exstasie

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Quote from: Denker on March 08, 2018, 01:06:31 PM

Quote from: exstasie on March 08, 2018, 03:27:28 AM

Long term, I'm seeing two main possibilities.

Scenario A: My preferred outcome is that we are in a fractal like summer 2012 or late spring 2013. If so, the correction is not over, but the lows may already be in. The plunge to $6,000 may have been the A wave of a bullish triangle. Or it could have been a W wave in a WXY consolidation. Both the 2012 and 2013 fractals had WXY structure where the initial leg down was the bottom. I believe Masterluc favors the 2012 fractal.

Scenario B: The other possibility is that we are still waiting for an 80-90%+ decline from the top over 1-3 years. That the altcoin markets and Google trends are both in utter despair support that idea. Bottom at $3,000 or lower.

Either way, a 90% crash is probably coming. The question for me is, will we go to $100,000 first?! Tongue

Scenario B is a bit too much imo. There's no reason why we should see 1-3 year bear market without any big technical failure in the protocol or at least 2-3 major exchanges getting totally rekt.

2014 was a big acceptance due to Mt. Gox being the exchange leader at that time. 75% of the trading volume was on Gox back in the days.

I disagree. It's just supply and demand. Catalysts like exchange failures just speed things along.

I never bought the "MT Gox collapse caused the 2-year bear market" narrative. That was just what hodlers told themselves to weather the storm. From the perspective of Gartner hype cycles and Wyckoff market cycles, a 2-year bear market was perfectly normal after 2013. Also, I think this narrative really downplays the importance of China to the market at that time.

It would be perfectly normal now too, from the perspective of time and cyclical price action (source: 5 years as a trader). Bitcoin's bullish fundamentals do often override conventional market analysis, but not always.

maku

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Blame the news as usual - people are always reacting too harsh to any sign of bearish info.
So it is not that surprising the bitcoin dropped at the sign of problems with Binance and technical issues at BitMEX.
The recent info shared by SEC didn't help us either. We entered bullish market...

richminded

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Quote from: followmenot on March 08, 2018, 03:02:36 AM

I think this is just regular panic and correction according to problems with latest binance problem. I am pretty sure markets will recover around may to july and bitcoin will reach above $20000, possibly 25000.

In addition to this, whales sold his holdings and continues to do it, I believe this is just a temporary downfall because bitcoin is on the sideways who keep on dumping and pumping. I agree that bitcoin can bounce back in the right time so don’t panic, this is now normal for bitcoin to go down after a pump.

ar-Ray

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Quote from: darkangel11 on March 07, 2018, 03:03:20 PM

Right now there was no bubble and nothing has popped. The previous bottom on Feb 25 was lower than this one, so if we don't fall below that one it's still a bullish pattern. As long as the lowest points are higher as time goes by it's a good sign.
I suspect there were 2 things that might cause this dump. 1 is the news about the Gox money being put on auction and 2 is the problem with binance. When they sort it out the price will go back up.

FUDsters and enemies of bitcoin are trying to cause fluctuations, but if a majority of users don't panic, their efforts will not be as successful as it was in late January-February.

harizen

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

People nowadays especially the new gamers really worried if bitcoin price went down for let's say around $1,900 in 3 days without realizing that bitcoin price also went up even way higher than the mentioned amount in just few hours or days. The only one that will mark on their mind is how the price decrease and not how much the price increase.

Come on, bitcoin price behaviour is not what you think that will always be uptrend. Even it has lots of positive speculations for long term goals, it's impossible that on the way, it will not experienced any price dips.

Rather than worrying and stressing yourself about that, just watch it calmly and patiently since Im sure you are also holding. No one knows what will happened so better put a shot in risks of holding and for the meantime you can play with other coins.

serjent05

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Quote from: Coffee135 on March 08, 2018, 01:29:13 PM

Now a lot of very large players appear in the cryptocurrency market. They concentrate in their hands a lot of capital. This will make the market more unpredictable. We have to be ready for these races will be familiar to us. It doesn't scare me. Each of us can make money of it. But for this you should always have a reserve not to sell the coins at the bottom of the candle.

Yes, the current crash in price should not affect us. We have seen Bitcoin to recover several time and it will recover soon too. Some believe that this crash is just another sign that bitcoin will skyrocket again. And I also believe that kind of analogy. All we have to do is to hodl until we got the aim price to sell our Bitcoin.

Coffee135

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Now a lot of very large players appear in the cryptocurrency market. They concentrate in their hands a lot of capital. This will make the market more unpredictable. We have to be ready for these races will be familiar to us. It doesn't scare me. Each of us can make money of it. But for this you should always have a reserve not to sell the coins at the bottom of the candle.

South Park

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

After the crash in 2013 the bear market lasted for more than 2 years but that was a catastrophic crash that happened because of the Mt Gox exchange going down with the money of its customers, the only thing I can say to you is that you need to wait and hold it is not easy but as you can see with the recent pump in the price that happened in December of the last year the wait can be worth it.

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Quote from: exstasie on March 08, 2018, 03:27:28 AM

Long term, I'm seeing two main possibilities.

Scenario A: My preferred outcome is that we are in a fractal like summer 2012 or late spring 2013. If so, the correction is not over, but the lows may already be in. The plunge to $6,000 may have been the A wave of a bullish triangle. Or it could have been a W wave in a WXY consolidation. Both the 2012 and 2013 fractals had WXY structure where the initial leg down was the bottom. I believe Masterluc favors the 2012 fractal.

Scenario B: The other possibility is that we are still waiting for an 80-90%+ decline from the top over 1-3 years. That the altcoin markets and Google trends are both in utter despair support that idea. Bottom at $3,000 or lower.

Either way, a 90% crash is probably coming. The question for me is, will we go to $100,000 first?! Tongue

Scenario B is a bit too much imo. There's no reason why we should see 1-3 year bear market without any big technical failure in the protocol or at least 2-3 major exchanges getting totally rekt.
2014 was a big acceptance due to Mt. Gox being the exchange leader at that time. 75% of the trading volume was on Gox back in the days. So a huge failure point.
Right now even a Tether desaster wouldn't suppress the market that long imo.

reliable

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Quote from: jimbo2000 on March 08, 2018, 11:49:50 AM

Quote from: exstasie on March 08, 2018, 03:27:28 AM

Long term, I'm seeing two main possibilities.

Scenario A: My preferred outcome is that we are in a fractal like summer 2012 or late spring 2013. If so, the correction is not over, but the lows may already be in. The plunge to $6,000 may have been the A wave of a bullish triangle. Or it could have been a W wave in a WXY consolidation. Both the 2012 and 2013 fractals had WXY structure where the initial leg down was the bottom. I believe Masterluc favors the 2012 fractal.

Scenario B: The other possibility is that we are still waiting for an 80-90%+ decline from the top over 1-3 years. That the altcoin markets and Google trends are both in utter despair support that idea. Bottom at $3,000 or lower.

Either way, a 90% crash is probably coming. The question for me is, will we go to $100,000 first?! Tongue

Altcoin markets are still up significantly over the last 6 months and google trends remain largely unchanged over the same period. If we remove December through January then the market is relatively stable and actually has a slight growth. Comparing things to the previous high is always going to lead to such conclusions.

Altcoins have fallen badly in past 2 months. Btc on other hand was becoming better as crossed 10500 last week and looks good suddenly today it has started to breach 9200$ as well which is little worry sign. Though it not expected to go much dip now but still if people started to sell then the pressure would be too much.

iv4n

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Quote from: jimbo2000 on March 08, 2018, 11:49:50 AM

Quote from: exstasie on March 08, 2018, 03:27:28 AM

Long term, I'm seeing two main possibilities.

Scenario A: My preferred outcome is that we are in a fractal like summer 2012 or late spring 2013. If so, the correction is not over, but the lows may already be in. The plunge to $6,000 may have been the A wave of a bullish triangle. Or it could have been a W wave in a WXY consolidation. Both the 2012 and 2013 fractals had WXY structure where the initial leg down was the bottom. I believe Masterluc favors the 2012 fractal.

Scenario B: The other possibility is that we are still waiting for an 80-90%+ decline from the top over 1-3 years. That the altcoin markets and Google trends are both in utter despair support that idea. Bottom at $3,000 or lower.

Either way, a 90% crash is probably coming. The question for me is, will we go to $100,000 first?! Tongue

Altcoin markets are still up significantly over the last 6 months and google trends remain largely unchanged over the same period. If we remove December through January then the market is relatively stable and actually has a slight growth. Comparing things to the previous high is always going to lead to such conclusions.

Great observation, I will remember that " comparing things to the previous high always will lead to wrong conclusions ". Like always wishing new ATH, everyday new ATH, people would like price to rise all the time and they just to pick up profit when ever they wish, people are fools.
I don't believe in any of this scenarios, rarely I see some scenario to come true. Bitcoin is constantly surprises us and in if we watch bitcoin trough the years that surprises are more positive then negative that trend will last in the future too. Bitcoin is not a bubble, bitcoin price can't be bubble that popped. Its just ordinary market fluctuations get use to that.

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Quote from: exstasie on March 08, 2018, 03:27:28 AM

Long term, I'm seeing two main possibilities.

Scenario A: My preferred outcome is that we are in a fractal like summer 2012 or late spring 2013. If so, the correction is not over, but the lows may already be in. The plunge to $6,000 may have been the A wave of a bullish triangle. Or it could have been a W wave in a WXY consolidation. Both the 2012 and 2013 fractals had WXY structure where the initial leg down was the bottom. I believe Masterluc favors the 2012 fractal.

Scenario B: The other possibility is that we are still waiting for an 80-90%+ decline from the top over 1-3 years. That the altcoin markets and Google trends are both in utter despair support that idea. Bottom at $3,000 or lower.

Either way, a 90% crash is probably coming. The question for me is, will we go to $100,000 first?! Tongue

Altcoin markets are still up significantly over the last 6 months and google trends remain largely unchanged over the same period. If we remove December through January then the market is relatively stable and actually has a slight growth. Comparing things to the previous high is always going to lead to such conclusions.

JMD07

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

It's just normal as it needs enough time to do a bull run and bitcoin will surprise us in the coming months as this currency has no pattern and it depends on the supply and demand in the market. Let's just wait and give others a chance to buy their bitcoin.

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Quote from: followmenot on March 08, 2018, 03:02:36 AM

I think this is just regular panic and correction according to problems with latest binance problem. I am pretty sure markets will recover around may to july and bitcoin will reach above $20000, possibly 25000.

And I'm sure after a high decline.. would causes more people to bought at a low price, that's movement is certainly a common thing that will lead to a high rising back.
The price at $20k seems to be familiar if many people expect the price is back on it, your prediction may be supported by the facts, I think that it will soon be reached.. but in fact it seems the price movements is still slowly to climbing.

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Long term, I'm seeing two main possibilities.

Scenario A: My preferred outcome is that we are in a fractal like summer 2012 or late spring 2013. If so, the correction is not over, but the lows may already be in. The plunge to $6,000 may have been the A wave of a bullish triangle. Or it could have been a W wave in a WXY consolidation. Both the 2012 and 2013 fractals had WXY structure where the initial leg down was the bottom. I believe Masterluc favors the 2012 fractal.

Scenario B: The other possibility is that we are still waiting for an 80-90%+ decline from the top over 1-3 years. That the altcoin markets and Google trends are both in utter despair support that idea. Bottom at $3,000 or lower.

Either way, a 90% crash is probably coming. The question for me is, will we go to $100,000 first?! Tongue

followmenot

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I think this is just regular panic and correction according to problems with latest binance problem. I am pretty sure markets will recover around may to july and bitcoin will reach above $20000, possibly 25000.

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At 11000$ and landed at 9000$ there is no bubble popping in my opinion. Just pure panic and investors cashing bitcoin for security. Can we expect after all the rumours, news from left to right (majority are bad) and China’s regulation about social media account banning then Binance controversial hacking incidents that is still in investigations. We would be surprised if the price hold on and increase, right?

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

This was not a bubble. Bitcoin actually hasn't moved up much since the start of the year. In fact we're still negative from the start of the year. Recovering from $9k to $12k barely classifies as a pump since the previous high was just $12k as well.

The reason why this dump happened was not because of any sort of profit takers or the bubble popping. There wasn't one to begin with! Instead, it was mainly because people are worried about Binance and SEC's attitude towards exchanges.

What I'm seeing is a definitive dip that will probably last a while, could go down a bit lower in the meantime. But eventually people will stop panicking, realise that they've made a mistake by selling, and buy back, resulting in a recovery.

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For me this is a normal correction of price and not a bubble. 'cause on my view the price will never go dip even though on this moment the price is gradually decreasing, because i believe that some of the bitcoin news around the internet is not spreading false articles which is they say that there's a tend of price to spike again on this year. So perhaps the price will rebound again soon and it will never go dip, just keep holding 'cause for sure after this correction there will be a ATH again .

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

just because price goes down, it doesn't mean it is a bubble popping! a bubble is when price is so much higher than the intrinsic value and then it drops hard. like the $20k and the drop to $10k. not a 10% drop that in bitcoin is considered normal fluctuations!

and just because you saw a drop it doesn't mean we are in a bear market. this here is more of a sideways action than a bear or bull market. price is going up and down between two prices of $9k and $12k and until it breaks either one of these lines it is going to continue being a sideways action.

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No it's not popping, there are reasons for this dropping, the binance exchanges got some problem, there are some sudden huge transactions happened, and the Japan is try to clear the exchanges that not suit with the regulations, so this drop will be temporary, so don't panic

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Quote from: romero121 on March 07, 2018, 02:52:30 PM

The China's contribution to the cryptocurrency network is big, even after regulated usage they were the head people leading to the fluctuation of the market. What's going on is just the impact of ban of social media ban of exchange services rendered in China. So, this is not a bubble anymore.

China is always doing it and it is sometimes irritating to see and heard such news but somehow they were on the right move. I wonder what is their next move next month, should it be a ban again or a attempted hack to their exchanges or something. I wonder if bitcoin will gonna rise up again and break that 12k resistance.

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

Do you know what is a bubble popped? 20%? LOL Bitcoin made 20% swings daily several times last year. Bubble popped means that price went down few times from ATH. It went from 20k to 6k. In only few weeks. That you can say was a small bubble popped. If you want to call 11k Bitcoin a bubble right now price need to tank to $3k range. Maybe will happen next week.

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

I don't consider the current spike a bubble though. It took us several days to get from $9.7 to $11.6 (probably a week or more). So its a normal price increase. Maybe people are just cashing it out simple as that. No bubble has bee burst here.

Full year? Are you kidding me? The longest bear trend that I have witness is around 3 months if I'm not mistaken. So I don't think that we will not gain any significant increase in a span of a year.

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

Can't call this a bubble, same event has occurred numerous times, it looks like a simple price drop, it's how the market is working. The price has been relatively stable the past few months. It will probably remain below 14-15k for quite some time.

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We're not in a bear market, and a $1900 dip is not a nosedive drop, let alone a bubble popping, any other day that would've been just a correction. Binance FUD and some other news released earlier today caused some major panic selling among weak hands and noobs, nothing to be worried about. If anything the dip today was a golden opportunity for people to buy some cheap coins before the next bull run begins.

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Support above $10,000 is just too weak to hold for a longer period of time, which isn't anything new. If you also take the thinner overall market in consideration, dumping the market down is nothing more than a peanuts job. Current drop was either panic regarding Binance or the SEC, or just a whale attempt to make people think it has something to do with the aforementioned. Either way, the market will climb back up again, and likely also get dumped back below $10,000 for a brief moment. If people expect fireworks in the coming weeks/months, then you're likely going to be disappointed, especially so if we can't manage to break through the $11,780 resistance point. I expect another jump up to break that resistance point before the end of next week, but another failed attempt will again result in either the $10,000 to be tested, or to drop below it. I see it as a great profit making opportunity.

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You need to read some news, binance ''hack'' and regulations on japan but specially the binance issue drove the price down, nothing else. I'm expecting a rebound soon to where we were. If I had a dollar for every time someone said bitcoin bubble popped I would be a millionaire.

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

Today's price fall is not a bubble or even close to it, it also doesn't really signal that we're in a bear market (because of the reason behind it), it would be surprising if the price suffers for a whole year. The price was threatening again to break the resistance at 12k, next time it goes there I'm sure it will break it and then we won't see sub 10k ever again.

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Sadly yes, probably because of the result of continuing fears of the users about regulation and anxiety of the possible high profile thefts. In addition to the news of Korea banning bitcoin.

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I think the reason of the dumps of Bitcoin is just panic sales, this happens all the time and you have to be prepared for it. But it may go down from 10k down to 9k again, because, in fact, Bitcoins are sold at that time when price declines by the people, those who are not experienced.

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Quote from: Duzter on March 07, 2018, 04:05:44 PM

Quote from: bitcoinstress on March 07, 2018, 03:48:36 PM

We never know as long we have great Wall, I'm sure the price will not falling deep. In my opinion the price fall because all holder want taking a profit.

Still it is hard to predict the real growth, because very few predictions get close to the real growth while the rest moves far away from the reality. The growth of bitcoin has got affected by the bad news, and if the users around the globe tend to cash out on panic automatically there will be price drops and the same will continue for more time period.

Exactly. It comes to the point where on one side you want to keep money in btc, on the other side, if panic starts, many of us will follow that and sell "savings" in btc just to avoid bigger loss.

E. regarding the drop, I would also avoid calling drop from 11k to 9,5k this way.

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Quote from: aso118 on March 07, 2018, 03:04:13 PM

Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

If you are calling the price of $11,600 a bubble, then it must be the mildest bubble that Bitcoin has ever had. I would classify this drop only as lateral movement around the $10,000 to $11,000 range. The price can remain under $15,000 for a lot longer than a year. The previous highs were due to an overheated market and we will take some time to see those levels again.

OP shouldn't have had called what we have seen as a bubble popping, IMO the bubbles we have seen in the past are way more enormous than this one. Instead of a drop, I would consider this as part of the normal swings that happens whenever btc is in a bullish trend. The previous highs were not only due to that overheated market, it is also caused by the fast growth in user's numbers. IMO many people have decided to start using bitcoin only last year or this year.

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Quote from: bitcoinstress on March 07, 2018, 03:48:36 PM

We never know as long we have great Wall, I'm sure the price will not falling deep. In my opinion the price fall because all holder want taking a profit.

Still it is hard to predict the real growth, because very few predictions get close to the real growth while the rest moves far away from the reality. The growth of bitcoin has got affected by the bad news, and if the users around the globe tend to cash out on panic automatically there will be price drops and the same will continue for more time period.

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We never know as long we have great Wall, I'm sure the price will not falling deep. In my opinion the price fall because all holder want taking a profit.

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

If you are calling the price of $11,600 a bubble, then it must be the mildest bubble that Bitcoin has ever had. I would classify this drop only as lateral movement around the $10,000 to $11,000 range. The price can remain under $15,000 for a lot longer than a year. The previous highs were due to an overheated market and we will take some time to see those levels again.

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Right now there was no bubble and nothing has popped. The previous bottom on Feb 25 was lower than this one, so if we don't fall below that one it's still a bullish pattern. As long as the lowest points are higher as time goes by it's a good sign.
I suspect there were 2 things that might cause this dump. 1 is the news about the Gox money being put on auction and 2 is the problem with binance. When they sort it out the price will go back up.

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The China's contribution to the cryptocurrency network is big, even after regulated usage they were the head people leading to the fluctuation of the market. What's going on is just the impact of ban of social media ban of exchange services rendered in China. So, this is not a bubble anymore.

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on March 07, 2018, 02:28:10 PM

So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

The price was ridiculous at some point, but it also made everyone hear about cryptocurrency. It was like free advertising for bitcoin and what is now interesting, the bubble might turn into something quite regular. Just my opinion, but it might remain in around $8-10 k (maybe 12?) for a while.
https://ibb.co/fiYxV7

I am not quite sure about that (as probably most of us), just wish best for bitcoin.

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So looks like another bubble has popped and BTC is taking a nosedive dropping from 11600 to 9700 a mere 1900$ in 3 days. How long does a bear market normally last? I'm expecting atleast the full year, can it take longer?

Topic: Another Bubble popped? (Read 601 times)