Topic: Another Newbie Analysis Thread (Read 565 times)
How many times before to start a substantial investment into BTCmarket ?
As I'm forced to create a thread here before I'm allowed to post elsewhere in the forum, I figured I'd post some opinions and observations of mine around the cryptocurrency movement, and where I see flaws, benefits, and hopefully a chance to make some money during the current lull.
Firstly, I'd like to point out that the pre-Xmas period was booming for BTC and alt-currency trading on sites such as Cryptsy and BTC-e. Analysis of charts during this period shows that there was steady growth, good volume, and a lot of buy/sell support for all crypto-currencies.
When the arse dropped out of the market on the 7th of December, everyone sold their alt-currencies resulting in mass panic and great buy opportunity. Through to the 16th of December, steady growth was seen in BTC and people regained confidence, again buying alt-currencies which returned to their former value. Those who bought in to the alt-currency market at the bottom of the drop were able to see great ROI.
Again the market plummeted on the 19th of December, and while there has been some growth for the major currencies (BTC, LTC, NMC), most alt-currencies are yet to make a full recovery and have only seen support for growth of 20-30% of their December 19 low. Low trade volume has been a major factor in this, and was predicted to be the case for pre-Xmas and pre-NY since the November boom.
While you may have missed the 20-30% growth since the 19th, most alt-currencies dropped by significantly larger numbers. For example, ZET dropped from a high of 0.00012000 to about 0.00003000 and is now sitting at 0.00004700. It has potential to reach is previous high once volume starts coming back into the market. Another coin I have been monitoring and invested in at a low of 0.00035000 is WDC. It's currently at just under 0.00060000 and peaked at 0.00070000. With Scharmbeck and a massive push from the community, it will no doubt surpass its pre-drop value of 0.00075000, and go on to be a good long term investment.
On mining. Is it possible to see an ROI today? Scrypt mining, probably, SHA-256, not really.
Why?
Difficulty is skyrocketing for SHA-256, those that already have their $12k ASIC rigs are driving it up exponentially. Those who have just purchased new $12k rigs have 2-3 months of waiting for their investment to arrive, with predicted difficulty increases making ROI unlikely. The GHS/BTC market recently saw a plummet from 0.074 to 0.032 when the difficulty increased by a whopping 18%. That's a 56% drop in GHS value for an 18% increase in difficulty. The value of GHS will continue to drop every time difficulty increases, making mining less viable.
Due to the current trough in the market, Scrypt mining isn't really profitable either (at least not compared to late-November, early-December profitability). However, note that this is right now. I feel that mining for whatever your coin of choice is and holding that coin for a couple of weeks is probably the best option at the moment. With market predictions showing an increase in altcoin value, it might be best to keep your eggs in the altcoin basket and sell them off during the next peak.
On project/options investment. The first boat has been missed, but it's not too late to jump onboard the second boat. All options on Cryptostocks plummeted during the downfall and are now at higher-than-drop values. See Cryptsy and SBFS (Scharmbeck) stocks as an example. They're both more than 70% above their pre-drop value, and more than 100% above their drop value. It's worth noting however, that project stocks are low-volume trades if using them for day trading. Additionally, you won't see an ROI on your investment via dividends alone anytime soon, but if you buy more shares with those dividends and share prices go up, you will see a nice ROI when you're ready to sell your shares.
On development. This might be the best place to make some money off the crypto community at the moment. If you have a good idea, chances are that it hasn't been done yet, or has been done so poorly that there is plenty of room for improvement. If you can approach the right people to help create your project (and perhaps issue shares early on), there is very real opportunity to create a thriving business.
In conclusion. The cryptocurrency market is in its infant stages. If you've invested already, you're early to the game. While many see it as a bubble similar to the dotcom bubble, it is worth noting that a lot of the businesses created during the boom are still highly profitable businesses today. Amazon is a prime example. However, a LOT of those business no longer exist. The risk/reward during the crypto currency bubble seen today is going to be much the same. You could lose everything, or you could be the Warren Buffett of the crypto currency world.
Firstly, I'd like to point out that the pre-Xmas period was booming for BTC and alt-currency trading on sites such as Cryptsy and BTC-e. Analysis of charts during this period shows that there was steady growth, good volume, and a lot of buy/sell support for all crypto-currencies.
When the arse dropped out of the market on the 7th of December, everyone sold their alt-currencies resulting in mass panic and great buy opportunity. Through to the 16th of December, steady growth was seen in BTC and people regained confidence, again buying alt-currencies which returned to their former value. Those who bought in to the alt-currency market at the bottom of the drop were able to see great ROI.
Again the market plummeted on the 19th of December, and while there has been some growth for the major currencies (BTC, LTC, NMC), most alt-currencies are yet to make a full recovery and have only seen support for growth of 20-30% of their December 19 low. Low trade volume has been a major factor in this, and was predicted to be the case for pre-Xmas and pre-NY since the November boom.
While you may have missed the 20-30% growth since the 19th, most alt-currencies dropped by significantly larger numbers. For example, ZET dropped from a high of 0.00012000 to about 0.00003000 and is now sitting at 0.00004700. It has potential to reach is previous high once volume starts coming back into the market. Another coin I have been monitoring and invested in at a low of 0.00035000 is WDC. It's currently at just under 0.00060000 and peaked at 0.00070000. With Scharmbeck and a massive push from the community, it will no doubt surpass its pre-drop value of 0.00075000, and go on to be a good long term investment.
On mining. Is it possible to see an ROI today? Scrypt mining, probably, SHA-256, not really.
Why?
Difficulty is skyrocketing for SHA-256, those that already have their $12k ASIC rigs are driving it up exponentially. Those who have just purchased new $12k rigs have 2-3 months of waiting for their investment to arrive, with predicted difficulty increases making ROI unlikely. The GHS/BTC market recently saw a plummet from 0.074 to 0.032 when the difficulty increased by a whopping 18%. That's a 56% drop in GHS value for an 18% increase in difficulty. The value of GHS will continue to drop every time difficulty increases, making mining less viable.
Due to the current trough in the market, Scrypt mining isn't really profitable either (at least not compared to late-November, early-December profitability). However, note that this is right now. I feel that mining for whatever your coin of choice is and holding that coin for a couple of weeks is probably the best option at the moment. With market predictions showing an increase in altcoin value, it might be best to keep your eggs in the altcoin basket and sell them off during the next peak.
On project/options investment. The first boat has been missed, but it's not too late to jump onboard the second boat. All options on Cryptostocks plummeted during the downfall and are now at higher-than-drop values. See Cryptsy and SBFS (Scharmbeck) stocks as an example. They're both more than 70% above their pre-drop value, and more than 100% above their drop value. It's worth noting however, that project stocks are low-volume trades if using them for day trading. Additionally, you won't see an ROI on your investment via dividends alone anytime soon, but if you buy more shares with those dividends and share prices go up, you will see a nice ROI when you're ready to sell your shares.
On development. This might be the best place to make some money off the crypto community at the moment. If you have a good idea, chances are that it hasn't been done yet, or has been done so poorly that there is plenty of room for improvement. If you can approach the right people to help create your project (and perhaps issue shares early on), there is very real opportunity to create a thriving business.
In conclusion. The cryptocurrency market is in its infant stages. If you've invested already, you're early to the game. While many see it as a bubble similar to the dotcom bubble, it is worth noting that a lot of the businesses created during the boom are still highly profitable businesses today. Amazon is a prime example. However, a LOT of those business no longer exist. The risk/reward during the crypto currency bubble seen today is going to be much the same. You could lose everything, or you could be the Warren Buffett of the crypto currency world.
Jump to: