Antonopoulos answers the question about the impact of halving

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on April 11, 2020, 11:34:10 AM

Holy crap! TA purists and btc speculation fans just got BTFO by no other than Andreas Grin

For those who didn't watch the video, he said:

Quote from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TiAPAYY0NA

"prediction about the price is the same as astrology and reading tea leaves"

Damn!

All events, known in advanced, are priced in. The halving FOMO is priced in, the halving "mining-death-spiral therefore Bitcoin will crash" is also priced in.

Quote

Quote from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TiAPAYY0NA

"saying things like the head-and-shoulders pattern that is declining through the 200MA indicates that blah blah blah is equivalent to saying the price will do this because Mercury is in ascendant in the constellation of virgo"

Savage!! LOL

On another note, I wonder if the "small time" miners would be open to moving their hardware to countries where electricity cost is cheap. If i'm not mistaken in most countries in central and south america electricity subsidies are very common.

BUT Bitcoin never stayed under the 200-weekly SMA. Fact.

Kakmakr

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Andreas is one of my favourite Bitcoin experts, so I value his opinion. We usually see a slight increase in the Bitcoin price, about a week or two prior to the actual event, because the hype in Social media gives Bitcoin some extra free publicity.

The bump in the price soon stabilize or even drop a day or two after the event takes place, because speculators anticipate a slight drop in the price as the hype dies down, so they sell for a quick profit whilst the price is still high. So, if you want to buy and make a slight profit, you will have to buy a few weeks before the event to enable you to buy low. Wink

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I'm not a big fan of much but these guy's videos always crack me a grin. I probably don't agree it's irresponsible to do price prediction, it's simply what a lot of people do, since price speculation really is the easiest thing to do, even easier than astrology too (and that takes some degree of study!).

I do think halving's purely psychological, but yeah it means little more than what the system's already meant for it to mean.

Velkro

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Quote from: kryptqnick on April 11, 2020, 09:21:12 AM

1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game.
2. BTC price: He calls making price predictions 'irresponsible', even comparing it to astrology.
It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.

Do you agree with him?

Its hard to not agree when he just points out past events, that are facts.
Second, this is Andreas, most of people will agree with him because of that, and they are mostly correct

I agree also about miners, that how it works, not profitable? turn off equipment, every other miner will gain a bit by that also

Betwrong

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Quote from: webtricks on April 11, 2020, 10:13:35 AM

~
Well, there isn't anything controversial said by Anto in the video to disagree. He just narrated the aftermath of halving and it is evident that mining will become unprofitable for certain weak miners due to reduction in rewards. Low numbers of miners = Lower difficulty, hence, mining will still be profitable for other miners.

Once difficulty is lowered mining can become profitable again for those who left the game right after the halving. I mean, not only some other miners can keep up mining with profit after the difficulty adjustment to the lowered hashrate, but the same miners who just left can join in once again, thus restoring the security to almost the same level.

But what I like the most about this video is that he reminds us that

Quote from: https://youtu.be/2TiAPAYY0NA?t=394

"Keep in mind we have so much hash power increase over the last couple of years that even if 50% of the hash power was gone, we'd still end up somewhere where we were in 2018."

Which means that we shouldn't worry about Bitcoin network becoming less secure, even if the above mentioned "weak hands" will not return at all.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on April 11, 2020, 09:21:12 AM

I realize it's just one person's opinion but I do have respect when it comes to this one, so maybe it's an interesting topic to discuss. Yesterday, he published a new video on his Youtube channel where he talks about halving.
Here are some ideas I've circled out from the video.

1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game.
2. BTC price: He calls making price predictions 'irresponsible', even comparing it to astrology.
It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.

Do you agree with him?

I read a lot of topics concluding that halving means price going up. But I think it is hard to conclude it that way. I personally believe that no one can really say what will be the effect of halving. So I guess that is why he call it "irresponsible", it is creating a mislead information for others. It is better if we avoid creating such assumptions. We should really consider a lot of aspect. The effect will take some time too, and no one would really know if the price will go up, or go down, specially this year with the virus affecting us all.

PS. His opinion about the miners is natural too.

NotFuzzyWarm

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I still don't believe that we are going to see bitcoin halved

It is not a matter of believing -- the halving is hard coded into the BTC algorithm and WILL occur every 210,000 blocks or roughly every 4 years. At the current global hash rate the next halving will occur sometime in May this year.

While I am usually not a fan of Coindesk, they have a decent explanation of it here.

bearexin

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For me he’s really making a lot of sense. The both points he made, I think they are right. When the Halving is done, a lot of miners are going to drop out when they notice that they are no longer making any profit from it. And as for the price, if you check out what happened in the last time, the increase didn’t happen within short term or mid term, it took some time before it started to go up.

The last halving of Bitcoin happened in 9th July 2016 and the price didn’t pump immediately, the bull run happened in 2017 and the price of Bitcoin reached its peak around December.

OcTradism

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Halvings have effects on bitcoin price but there are some earlier or later effects. Most important, halvings bring the word bitcoin become more popular on newspapers and social medias, globally, and months later the real effects of halving will be shown. People probably don't recognize the impacts of block reward decreases till months later, then when they realize that, they have to accept higher price to own bitcoin.

- Halvings: catch more attention > warm up > more popular
- Some long delayed discovery on deflation after halvings > accept higher price.

Lucius

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mk4, some people don't even understand what halving is, and they actually take it as an event after which the price goes up to the Moon. But there are also media outlets that misinterpret the information, so some 2 months ago I read on one of my local portals that halving would actually cut the total BTC in half, and that the price will rise as a result of that. Of course, it's pure nonsense, but someone still reads it and believes it.

Halving is just one process that happens every 210,000 blocks, and which brings the total daily amount of mined coins 50% less than in the previous 4 years. If there is demand (and we see it exists), then only 900 new BTCs a day can play a significant role, especially for those who mine them.

mk4

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Quote from: Lucius on April 12, 2020, 09:23:08 AM

Looking at the first two halvings, it is very likely that nothing will change much after the third halving, and that it will have some effect on the price only next year or in Q4 2020. However, the current situation with a pandemic that has deeply shaken the world's largest economies should also be taken into account, because most countries have been in a technical recession before and with the current economic rescue measures a new major recession is at the door.

Yeap, apparently some people are expecting that some people will be like "holy crap, Bitcoin's mining reward per block has been cut in half? I'm gonna buy!" or something. To a certain extent, the halving is priced in. Heck, I think that the price will drop in the short term after the halving because people will be like, "what? that was uneventful as hell, and the price didn't go up." It will take time for us to feel the positive effects of the halving.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on April 11, 2020, 09:21:12 AM

It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.
Do you agree with him?

Looking at the first two halvings, it is very likely that nothing will change much after the third halving, and that it will have some effect on the price only next year or in Q4 2020. However, the current situation with a pandemic that has deeply shaken the world's largest economies should also be taken into account, because most countries have been in a technical recession before and with the current economic rescue measures a new major recession is at the door.

This is a new situation, the question is how will Bitcoin fight for its position in the market at a time when millions are out of work, when food production is declining, climate change is destroying agriculture and the world is facing real challenges.

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Andreas is just one person as you say OP but his opinions on bitcoin hold more weight than the average guy. I agree with his comments on mining but regarding price everybody likes to make predictions, it’s just a bit of fun.

OcTradism

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There are some cool ideas on this very old topic: [For merit] Discuss the effect mining rewards have on the price of Bitcoin.
I quoted my past answer because it is very highly that we saw a last test of capitulation last month. After capitulation finishes, we will start a new chapter for bitcoin price, and each time we see it, it is amazing.

Quote from: OcTradism on November 15, 2019, 08:50:25 AM

In a word: Capitulation.

Capitulation of miners often occurs in bear market or around halving time, when they surrender because of low income from mining (they feel mining income is not enough to pay for electricity bill in particular and production cost in general) or they feel shock when their mining rewards and income plummeted half by block halving.

When capitulation occurs - Difficulty ribbons compress or negatively flip - it is a very good signal of bottom price or very closely to the range of bottom price. Market needs to have a bit accumulation before blasting off.

Naturally, when most of weak miners surrender and leave the network, there are less pressure on the market (from their weak selling) and gradually price will become more stable and blast off later.

In other words, when the game changes from major to minor, it is the final stage of bear market and bull market will pop up to boost the price.

Bitcoin history price and halving days.

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I don't think we have enough data about halving. I don't think those for other coins are valid for BTC. For Bitcoin, we have seen only 2 halving so far. And in both of them there was a positive divergence between halving and price.

Therefore, it may be necessary to re-analyze the others before guessing what will happen for the 3rd time. It is not easy to predict what miners will do, but I think Bitcoin mining will always continue. Because even if the number of miners decreases, the difficulty level will decrease every 14 days and the income of the remaining miners will increase.
Nevertheless, the previous halvings showed that as Bitcoin's release rate decreased, this had a positive effect on the BTC price. What will happen this time? I think we will see its effects within a year.

thesmallgod

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I think what is holistic about this halving is that some miner will not be able to continue due to lower mining reward which gives room for other big miners (more centralization) however, it is still difficult to predict the price of the bitcoin will rise which is the most discussed issue among individuals this day. However, peoples expectations and also media discussion about the halving might have a short positive influence on the price of the bitcoin during the process.

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Quote from: mk4 on April 11, 2020, 10:59:23 AM

Well, sure. It's not like his answer concerning mining was an uncommon or controversial opinion. It's actually the likely outcome; especially knowing that the price is likely to stay the same in my opinion(or even drop a bit) in the short term after the halving.

Yeah, I also think what he says makes perfect sense. I am just putting it forward for a discussion more because of the points about the price and price prediction. For one, many here believe in TA, whereas this guy is quite harsh about it. Another thing is that people keep talking about halving pumping the price in the future because this is what happened the previous time, while he believes that it did not happen before and thus is not likely to happen now.

Quote from: pakhitheboss on April 11, 2020, 10:56:33 PM

Cryptocurrency market has been dominated by Whales so it is really impossible to predict the price using technical analysis. Furthermore the marketcap is very small as compared to the stock market. Hence manipulation is very easy for whales.

Only news based analysis works in this market.

I am not sure what Antonopoulos would say about the whales and their manipulations... Is it a fact that they manipulate the market? 'cause I still find it hard to believe. And IMO, in the video, he's pretty clear on why TA doesn't work: not because it cannot take some factors into account but because it's pseudo-scientific and involves false pattern recognition.

verita1

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I agree with him. He is a well-informed person in the crypto space.
Days ago, there was talk that miners could reduce their operations.
And with the current crisis, it is unpredictable to know if the price of bitcoin will rise or fall because it depends on many factors. The most important thing is to get out of this global health emergency because later we can recover the losses that we may have.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on April 11, 2020, 09:21:12 AM

I realize it's just one person's opinion but I do have respect when it comes to this one, so maybe it's an interesting topic to discuss. Yesterday, he published a new video on his Youtube channel where he talks about halving.
Here are some ideas I've circled out from the video.

1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game.
2. BTC price: He calls making price predictions 'irresponsible', even comparing it to astrology.
It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.

Do you agree with him?

Antonopoulos is right again.
I was thinking the same stuff.The reduced mining rewards will throw away all the small inefficient miners,so mining will become more "centralized". Perhaps miners located in China will increase their domination,so all the concerns from the past about Bitcoin being "controlled by the Chinese government" will flourish again.
Man,I wish that smaller miners,that are not located in China would find a way to survive the BTC halving.
The short term electricity prices in Europe are down because of the recession,but after the recession is gone,the prices will go back up,so the small EU miners won't survive.

joniboini

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on April 11, 2020, 07:30:15 PM

-snip-

I think he's saying that the probability is difficult to rely on and sometimes reasoning are made to justify the believes, especially when you try to predict in a very long time-frame.

I like his stance on price prediction to be honest because saying something like bitcoin will go to $100k or went down to $1k after halving sounds silly as hell if it comes from him.

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Quote

1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game.

It is a known fact, only the fittest will survive after halving.

Quote

2. BTC price: He calls making price predictions 'irresponsible', even comparing it to astrology.
It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.

Cryptocurrency market has been dominated by Whales so it is really impossible to predict the price using technical analysis. Furthermore the marketcap is very small as compared to the stock market. Hence manipulation is very easy for whales.

Only news based analysis works in this market.

Darker45

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This man knows what he is talking about unlike so many others who seem to feel that they are already experts merely because they are hodling hundreds of BTC. This man sounds objective in his opinions. Agreeing with him is a bit easy.

Predictions based on analyses are nothing but attempts to understand the patterns of BTC's movements. Well, more often than not, they are too far from being accurate. And then there are those that are nothing but attempts to create hype and FOMO among people.

As regards halving, Andreas' idea seems to coincides with theymos' when he pointed out that "Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply." So the reduction will take some time to sink in. These must be enlightened views on it.

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on April 11, 2020, 07:30:15 PM

I think he's too harsh on the price predictions, TA is not completely useless if done correctly, same goes for fundamental analysis. Let's be honest, majority of people come to Bitcoin for trading, so speculation is a huge part of Bitcoin discussions, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that. And I'm sure that at least some of the predictions are quite reasonable and some will become true.

It's probably less that he thinks that TA is 100% useless, it's more of because that he is a huge name in the bitcoin/cryptocurrency space and he wouldn't want to give false promises by making these useless price "predictions". It's not like you can use TA and FA to know for sure how the markets will move, they just help you by estimating the odds. Also, price predictions are hugely counter-productive in the first place.

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I have since thought the likelihood of some miners who are not using advanced machines and don't have access to cheat electricity as their counterpart. If there is no o immediate price increase in bitcoin some miners may very well drop out, but for people with cheap electricity, there is no need for dropping out.

hatshepsut93

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I think he's too harsh on the price predictions, TA is not completely useless if done correctly, same goes for fundamental analysis. Let's be honest, majority of people come to Bitcoin for trading, so speculation is a huge part of Bitcoin discussions, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that. And I'm sure that at least some of the predictions are quite reasonable and some will become true.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on April 11, 2020, 09:21:12 AM

I realize it's just one person's opinion but I do have respect when it comes to this one, so maybe it's an interesting topic to discuss.

1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game.

In 2012, the hash power dropped after halving but later increased. That means, some miners left the industry while later in 2013, some later came into mining again as other new miners also join and this increase the hash power.

In 2016, this repeats it self again and the hash power increased.

So, after May, 2020 halving, it is certain that some miners will leave but we do not know what the price of bitcoin can be. The price is the determinant.
If the price does not increase, it is very likely that hash power will reduce but if the price of bitcoin later increase, then, more miners will join in mining again and hash power will increase.

So, it depends on the bitcoin price.

coolcoinz

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He's a great speaker and I always feel engaged when I hear his interviews or explanations. Definitely one of the best frontmen that Bitcoin could have.
I agree with him. Making price predicrion when Bitcoin does not only depend on itself but also on multiple outside factors like the situation on the stock market is like trying to read someone's palm and tell future. You can analyse the charts, but past performance is only one of a dozen things in play here. Traders are not the only people playing this game.

tomahawk9

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Holy crap! TA purists and btc speculation fans just got BTFO by no other than Andreas Grin

For those who didn't watch the video, he said:

Quote from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TiAPAYY0NA

"prediction about the price is the same as astrology and reading tea leaves"

Damn!

Quote from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TiAPAYY0NA

"saying things like the head-and-shoulders pattern that is declining through the 200MA indicates that blah blah blah is equivalent to saying the price will do this because Mercury is in ascendant in the constellation of virgo"

Savage!! LOL

On another note, I wonder if the "small time" miners would be open to moving their hardware to countries where electricity cost is cheap. If i'm not mistaken in most countries in central and south america electricity subsidies are very common.

mk4

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Well, sure. It's not like his answer concerning mining was an uncommon or controversial opinion. It's actually the likely outcome; especially knowing that the price is likely to stay the same in my opinion(or even drop a bit) in the short term after the halving.

webtricks

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Quote from: kryptqnick on April 11, 2020, 09:21:12 AM

Do you agree with him?

Well, there isn't anything controversial said by Anto in the video to disagree. He just narrated the aftermath of halving and it is evident that mining will become unprofitable for certain weak miners due to reduction in rewards. Low numbers of miners = Lower difficulty, hence, mining will still be profitable for other miners.

He is absolutely right about price. Simply because miners will get lower rewards doesn't mean price of bitcoin will increase. I doubt market solely moves on demand/supply model. It is comparatively more effected by speculation. So, the price may move in totally unexpected direction after halving, who knows.

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When regards to mining, he got a point, of course the halving will give them downside due yo reducing the blockreward, so I am confuse how others saying btc halving will be one of the reason of its pump. But since difficulty will be lowered, some will benefit though, as what he says those are staying on the game. Miners arent just a quick earned people. They also probably have knowledge about charts so instead selling btc for profit and consumption they budget it and save some when its price increase.

On the case of price prediction, as long its not a wild guess then its not a bullshit thing. I mean, if there are back up or proof of what his predicting this could be accepted.

kryptqnick

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I realize it's just one person's opinion but I do have respect when it comes to this one, so maybe it's an interesting topic to discuss. Yesterday, he published a new video on his Youtube channel where he talks about halving.
Here are some ideas I've circled out from the video.

1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game.
2. BTC price: He calls making price predictions 'irresponsible', even comparing it to astrology.
It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.

Do you agree with him?

Topic: Antonopoulos answers the question about the impact of halving (Read 415 times)