The time between block can be modelled by an exponential distribution; for the probability of having 4 block that happens within, for example 3 minutes apart, you would look at the probability of the following: (1-exp(-2/10))^4, 0.0107968364% of the time. Further more, you can multiply the specific proportion of hashrate of the specific miner to get a rough estimate of their probability. Whilst it may seem small, it isn't statistically impossible.
You should also consider the fact that hashrate is increasing in between periods, and thereby making this even less of a rarity.
Topic: AntPool mines 4 blocks (26 btc) in 11 minutes (Read 75 times)
blocks 829275, 829276, 829277, and 829278. I have never seen anything quite like this, and I am wondering how they pulled it off.
Reading two articles and one thread can help you to be less curious about it.Bitcoin Block Time Variance: Theory vs Reality
Empty Blocks, Full Mempool
BTC empty blocks (2009 - 5 May 2020): miners, size, daily, monthly,yearly stats
There are different eras with different Mining rigs in Bitcoin mining history but because Bitcoin has Difficulty retarget, you can see similar charts for CPU, GPU and ASIC.
In mining, the chance of finding a block is always the same and is based on your hashrate in comparison to the total hashrate. It is NOT affected by whether or not you mined the previous block or any of the ones before that.
This means if you (the mining pool) have 30% of the total hashrate, you will have 30% chance of finding any block at any height. You could get lucky and find block x, x+1, x+2 and x+3 but in the end when you look at the large numbers (per 1000 blocks for example) you still will have mined only 30% of that total (300 blocks).
This means if you (the mining pool) have 30% of the total hashrate, you will have 30% chance of finding any block at any height. You could get lucky and find block x, x+1, x+2 and x+3 but in the end when you look at the large numbers (per 1000 blocks for example) you still will have mined only 30% of that total (300 blocks).
It’s basically variance. Remeber how we had those 2 hour block times, well this is the opposite. Basically the average is 10 minutes but sometimes blocks can be found in seconds or hours.
I don’t think it implies anything, they are a big pool and it’s normal for them to find this many blocks so quickly. I would be more concerned if all of a sudden a new private miner appeared and started to solve 50% of all daily blocks, and we didn’t know who it was. That would be more of a concern than this.
I don’t think it implies anything, they are a big pool and it’s normal for them to find this many blocks so quickly. I would be more concerned if all of a sudden a new private miner appeared and started to solve 50% of all daily blocks, and we didn’t know who it was. That would be more of a concern than this.
I am wondering how they pulled it off.
Luck
They've also mined 5 blocks in a row in 19 minute sa bit earlier 829,215 to 829,219
Foundry mined 4 blocks in 4 minutes, 828,838 to 828,842 and earlier got 6 in a row , 828,822 to 828,827.
Nothing special, happens all the time.
Viabtc mining 4 blocks in a row is more of an event since they have barely 10% of the hashrate.
Without knowing too much about the subject, I understand that this is due to pure statistical variability. An improbable but not impossible event that ends up happening, just as there are people who hit the lottery jackpot, however improbable it may be. As of today I see that they are the first mining pool, so it is not so strange.
blocks 829275, 829276, 829277, and 829278. I have never seen anything quite like this, and I am wondering how they pulled it off.
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