Author

Topic: anyone hit the BTC lotto lately? (Read 1169 times)

legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1001
July 16, 2014, 03:16:46 PM
#8
I've been trying. I have 100 Ghps solomining for fun. So far nothing. I did find a block on btcguild a while back.... too bad as I've only earned 5 btc on guild, would have made a ton more solomining.

I'm considering solomining with my full 12 Thps when it comes online - save for electricity costs, which would give me a 1% shot per day!!
Would you explain how you got to your conclusions, please?  At current difficulty, that 12TH/s would expect to solve a block every 72 days or so.  Expected daily earnings are about 0.35BTC.  I'm trying to figure out how you conclude that you've got a 1% chance a day to hit that block.  Thanks Smiley.


25 btc / .35 = 71.42 to 1 chance.


  the math  works this way.  either way the power spent is the same so forget the power  …..


for a day     he spends .35 btc (what he would have earned in a pool)   


    .35btc = about 217 usd      and 25 btc = about  15500    so his chance are no better or worse  then pool mining.


and you are correct that 1/72 = 1.39 percent not 1 %




I was thinking the odds would be worse than the actual lottery but when you present it this way it doesn't seem like too far off a probability to hit one
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
July 16, 2014, 02:23:20 PM
#7
I've been trying. I have 100 Ghps solomining for fun. So far nothing. I did find a block on btcguild a while back.... too bad as I've only earned 5 btc on guild, would have made a ton more solomining.

I'm considering solomining with my full 12 Thps when it comes online - save for electricity costs, which would give me a 1% shot per day!!
Would you explain how you got to your conclusions, please?  At current difficulty, that 12TH/s would expect to solve a block every 72 days or so.  Expected daily earnings are about 0.35BTC.  I'm trying to figure out how you conclude that you've got a 1% chance a day to hit that block.  Thanks Smiley.


25 btc / .35 = 71.42 to 1 chance.


  the math  works this way.  either way the power spent is the same so forget the power  …..


for a day     he spends .35 btc (what he would have earned in a pool)   


    .35btc = about 217 usd      and 25 btc = about  15500    so his chance are no better or worse  then pool mining.


and you are correct that 1/72 = 1.39 percent not 1 %


hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
July 16, 2014, 02:12:42 PM
#6
I've been trying. I have 100 Ghps solomining for fun. So far nothing. I did find a block on btcguild a while back.... too bad as I've only earned 5 btc on guild, would have made a ton more solomining.

I'm considering solomining with my full 12 Thps when it comes online - save for electricity costs, which would give me a 1% shot per day!!
Would you explain how you got to your conclusions, please?  At current difficulty, that 12TH/s would expect to solve a block every 72 days or so.  Expected daily earnings are about 0.35BTC.  I'm trying to figure out how you conclude that you've got a 1% chance a day to hit that block.  Thanks Smiley.

Well, you can figure out whether he's right or not.  First, how many blocks are found in a given day.  Second, how many TH/s are "used" in a given day to find the x number of blocks.  Then, how much is 12 TH/s (the amount he has) compared to the total amount "used" in a given day to find the blocks.  Then you can determine his % chance of finding a block in a given day. 

Everyone else thanks for your answers, I might try just for fun since electricity is almost free.
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1024
Mine at Jonny's Pool
July 16, 2014, 01:47:48 PM
#5
I've been trying. I have 100 Ghps solomining for fun. So far nothing. I did find a block on btcguild a while back.... too bad as I've only earned 5 btc on guild, would have made a ton more solomining.

I'm considering solomining with my full 12 Thps when it comes online - save for electricity costs, which would give me a 1% shot per day!!
Would you explain how you got to your conclusions, please?  At current difficulty, that 12TH/s would expect to solve a block every 72 days or so.  Expected daily earnings are about 0.35BTC.  I'm trying to figure out how you conclude that you've got a 1% chance a day to hit that block.  Thanks Smiley.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
July 16, 2014, 11:33:20 AM
#4
I've been trying. I have 100 Ghps solomining for fun. So far nothing. I did find a block on btcguild a while back.... too bad as I've only earned 5 btc on guild, would have made a ton more solomining.

I'm considering solomining with my full 12 Thps when it comes online - save for electricity costs, which would give me a 1% shot per day!!
you should consider doing it as it may be worth while to do so.
hero member
Activity: 843
Merit: 608
July 16, 2014, 01:12:33 AM
#3
I've been trying. I have 100 Ghps solomining for fun. So far nothing. I did find a block on btcguild a while back.... too bad as I've only earned 5 btc on guild, would have made a ton more solomining.

I'm considering solomining with my full 12 Thps when it comes online - save for electricity costs, which would give me a 1% shot per day!!
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
July 15, 2014, 10:38:58 PM
#2
it might be 0.0xxx % chance at this time difficulty Sad
you can read some comments about this
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/solo-mining-in-2014-415245
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/16687/solo-mining-just-for-luck-realistic
but i can't find updated one
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
July 15, 2014, 01:52:44 PM
#1
Just wondering anyone solo mining who has hit the BTC lotto lately and found a block, and how many hashes you're using?  Thinking about just leaving on a small miner at home for fun, just to see what happens, but won't do it if there's no shot in heck of finding a block.  Thanks.
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