Arbitrage on sports bets? | Bitcointalksearch.org

Fortify

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Quote from: 9kek on January 10, 2021, 12:57:29 PM

Did someone of you try to do Arbitrage on sport bets in BTC gambling sites?
Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

When you say arbitrage in this context, you are looking for sportsbooks that where either one place seriously misprices a bet or two of them have potentially mispriced a bet to a smaller degree. It's not impossible but the amount of chances to do this will be astonishingly small because these companies would likely lose a lot of money if this happened on a regular basis. It's simply not realistic to think that you could do this on a regular basis because it is effectively a money printing machine if anyone finds this setup. You might be better off comparing sportbooks to a P2P marketplace which usually has much tighter betting on it, although the commission they charge usually costs a small spread as well.

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Quote from: milewilda on December 07, 2021, 02:44:57 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I have not yet applied it in practice. I'm studying this strategy to be sure in what I do.

How?

https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/matched-betting-tips/arbitrage-betting/
http://sportsarbitrageguide.com/what_is_arbitrage_trading.php
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7Czx9LyfuU

But be careful this one is highly prohibited and once get caught then its an autobanned.

Could you please give examples of rules that prohibit arbitrage bets? I recently tried to find these points in the casino rules in which I place bets but could not. Plus there are several types of arbitrage bets, I do not think that they are all prohibited, because if it were so, then any player could be banned.

Quote from: STT on December 07, 2021, 03:13:40 PM

The reason they are so much against this strat is that its used to capture betting bonuses and special offers and cash out. The best arbitrage would be via a lay bet which is where in some countries you can become the bookmaker backing bets

It turns out that the best way to make arbitrage bets is not to use bonuses and promo offers so as not to abuse them. Maybe in this case the casino will be okay with this fact and will regard the player making arbitrage bets not as an enemy but as a liquidity provider.

STT

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The reason they are so much against this strat is that its used to capture betting bonuses and special offers and cash out. The best arbitrage would be via a lay bet which is where in some countries you can become the bookmaker backing bets, if the odds have become extremely biased this means you have the most profitable end of the trade.
I have done a bit of arbitrage but its a risky strategy to engage in as odds move towards the close and now you wont make profit. Also making two bets means you have paid two percentage fees for the house take basically. It can work best in the most popular mainstream games I think. I did a big arb on the USA election because of how controversial that is, the odds did vary quite a bit I found. I would have made most just guessing the correct outcome and I was correct there but I setup the arb so it was impossible for me to lose any cash. Ideally you dont do this one on the bets which are rarer with less traffic, big revenue reduces volatility risk.

milewilda

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I have not yet applied it in practice. I'm studying this strategy to be sure in what I do.

How?

https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/matched-betting-tips/arbitrage-betting/
http://sportsarbitrageguide.com/what_is_arbitrage_trading.php
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7Czx9LyfuU

But be careful this one is highly prohibited and once get caught then its an autobanned.

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Quote from: 9kek on January 10, 2021, 12:57:29 PM

Did someone of you try to do Arbitrage on sport bets in BTC gambling sites?
Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

I also looked into it some years ago and it was simply not possible since the house edge was very high, I have not checked recently but I suppose things are pretty much the same, so if you want to make some arbitrage bets you are better off going to fiat casinos as they have way better odds and the fact that there is heavy regulation in the industry plays in your favour and when you add the bonuses especially those that come in big events then you can find many opportunities to make some money.

magneto

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Quote from: 9kek on January 10, 2021, 12:57:29 PM

Did someone of you try to do Arbitrage on sport bets in BTC gambling sites?
Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

Nope, it's still the same old.

There are very rarely any worthwhile opportunities, and if there are, they are generally caused by some sort of inefficiency in the markets that you cannot actually take advantage of safely and profitably. For instance, if a sportsbook has low limits, high withdrawal requirements etc., you wouldn't be able to take advantage of arbs even if the odds at this particular sportsbook are great.

I wouldn't waste time on it honestly. But if you want to try, you can sign up to BitEdge for free. I signed up a while back and basically you would receive free updates on arb opportunities whenever they come up.

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Quote from: Twinkledoe on January 11, 2021, 05:08:56 PM

Quote from: mirakal on January 10, 2021, 04:51:20 PM

This isn't impossible though it's hard to arbitrage really.

I read some discussions in the past about arbitrage betting that it did not last too long because only few can really relate.
Bookies now with the use of the a good system won't allow anyone to abuse their site through arbitrage betting, I mean they have a very standard odds, if you'll find an arbitrage opportunity, it's only in a little percent of opportunity, that's why I'm saying it's hard job to do.

And you will end up just wasting your effort. I don't know any person here who is successful in arbitrage betting or he's just keeping it to himself. I believe there are few individuals doing it but they are just mum about it as they already found the trick on how to take advantage of this scheme.

a lot of people, almost all of them who find a tricky way to make guaranteed profit off something whether it was gambling or anything else, they won't share it to the public and risk the ability to do that trick if things can reach bookies, so asking publicly for something like this is useless and won't get him anything.

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Quote from: bitbollo on January 11, 2021, 05:24:30 PM

making arbitrage betting means that you must use several bookmakers.
it's very hard that one of them could see a strange movement since you're playing also in others website.
I don't think crypto sportsbook will restrict user since it's really hard to demonstrate arbitrage, and most of time you can win just a very small percentage!

my sweet summer child...ask me how I know you're a newbie bettor Cheesy

Quote from: ralle14 on January 12, 2021, 02:05:24 AM

I agree it's hard to spot gamblers that do arbitrage but still possible back then there was one bitcoin sportsbook I forgot which one but there was a case about one of their players getting limited because they claimed that he was doing arbitrage and the even got a proof coming from another sportsbook.

yep. Actually, a lot of btc bookmakers use the same layout/design, the same odds provider, almost the same everything, so at some point you have wonder if they have a line of communication between them which they could use to share info and spot arbers and the likes, and i think the answer is "yes, they do have that"

Wexnident

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Good luck with that then. Yes, Arbitrage betting can bring you significant profits, but really, it's more similar to doing illegal activities right under their noses which could lead to a lot of issues once caught. Maybe do it every now and then instead? At the very least, don't do it regularly since bookmakers might catch your tail in one of your tries.

Quote from: KTChampions on January 11, 2021, 03:48:41 PM

This state of affairs pisses me off - why shouldn't bookmakers just follow the rules and just run their business (mathematics is on their side anyway and they will always be in profit). What's the point in looking for and banning successful players? It seems to me that this greatly affects the image of betting and bookmakers.

Well, they're running a business, not a charity. Profits always come first, and that's also probably why Arbitrage betting even came to be in the first place. Profits are always right, or something like that.

ralle14

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Quote from: CarnagexD on January 11, 2021, 05:58:12 PM

I haven't encountered any BTC gambling site that allows this as of yet, coz it is gonna bankrupt the house, although it is quite understandable for people to d the these due to unfair house edge or other factors but really, it all boils down to the question whether you are gambling to relieve of stress or gambling to earn money, because the latter will be so hard to achieve.

At the start you're free to do so it's unlikely for them to get bankrupt because most sites have set a max profit to avoid these situations and only allow bigger limits to certain gamblers.

Quote from: bitbollo on January 11, 2021, 05:24:30 PM

making arbitrage betting means that you must use several bookmakers.
it's very hard that one of them could see a strange movement since you're playing also in others website.
I don't think crypto sportsbook will restrict user since it's really hard to demonstrate arbitrage, and most of time you can win just a very small percentage!

normally (real life betting) players got restricted only in certain situation (likewise playing heavy amount).

I agree it's hard to spot gamblers that do arbitrage but still possible back then there was one bitcoin sportsbook I forgot which one but there was a case about one of their players getting limited because they claimed that he was doing arbitrage and the even got a proof coming from another sportsbook.

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If you really wanna do arbitrage betting it is advisable to use two different sites rather than try your hardest to make it in one, more often than not they won't allow it as these types of betting strat causes the house to lose money. So better yet, choose a different betting site instead and do it on then arbitrage on both. You're still bound to win either way.

Quote from: CarnagexD on January 11, 2021, 05:58:12 PM

I haven't encountered any BTC gambling site that allows this as of yet, coz it is gonna bankrupt the house, although it is quite understandable for people to d the these due to unfair house edge or other factors but really, it all boils down to the question whether you are gambling to relieve of stress or gambling to earn money, because the latter will be so hard to achieve.

Because there are very few sites who would allow you to do so, and the sites that would allow you will only give you less rewards so it's not going to be that profitable either way. Just try my strat, that should work.

CarnagexD

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I haven't encountered any BTC gambling site that allows this as of yet, coz it is gonna bankrupt the house, although it is quite understandable for people to d the these due to unfair house edge or other factors but really, it all boils down to the question whether you are gambling to relieve of stress or gambling to earn money, because the latter will be so hard to achieve.

seleme

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Yes, it is possible but you have to be very fast and smart to liquidate the winnings, bets. The Stake and Bitsler have different odds on the same event but the difference is very small. If you can manage to catch the match bet, it will be easier on regular fiat sportsbooks. Long story short, it is better to use a script for finding the gaps between different gambling websites and events.

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making arbitrage betting means that you must use several bookmakers.
it's very hard that one of them could see a strange movement since you're playing also in others website.
I don't think crypto sportsbook will restrict user since it's really hard to demonstrate arbitrage, and most of time you can win just a very small percentage!

normally (real life betting) players got restricted only in certain situation (likewise playing heavy amount).

Quote from: AB de Royse777 on January 10, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Quote from: bitbollo on January 10, 2021, 01:05:43 PM

apparently nothing has changed, and as a reason I would add also the same provider for most of betting sites.
I opened some weeks ago this post asking for some update about "sure bets" but actually there is not any resource suitable for btc Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5284297

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

Twinkledoe

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Quote from: mirakal on January 10, 2021, 04:51:20 PM

This isn't impossible though it's hard to arbitrage really.

I read some discussions in the past about arbitrage betting that it did not last too long because only few can really relate.
Bookies now with the use of the a good system won't allow anyone to abuse their site through arbitrage betting, I mean they have a very standard odds, if you'll find an arbitrage opportunity, it's only in a little percent of opportunity, that's why I'm saying it's hard job to do.

And you will end up just wasting your effort. I don't know any person here who is successful in arbitrage betting or he's just keeping it to himself. I believe there are few individuals doing it but they are just mum about it as they already found the trick on how to take advantage of this scheme.

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Quote from: KTChampions on January 11, 2021, 03:48:41 PM

Quote from: AB de Royse777 on January 10, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

This state of affairs pisses me off - why shouldn't bookmakers just follow the rules and just run their business (mathematics is on their side anyway and they will always be in profit). What's the point in looking for and banning successful players? It seems to me that this greatly affects the image of betting and bookmakers.

I don’t think legitimate bookmakers would get mad about this. They want you to place bets. Only fly by night operations seem like they’d punish users for using their service if they feel like they might not make money from them.

KTChampions

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Quote from: AB de Royse777 on January 10, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

This state of affairs pisses me off - why shouldn't bookmakers just follow the rules and just run their business (mathematics is on their side anyway and they will always be in profit). What's the point in looking for and banning successful players? It seems to me that this greatly affects the image of betting and bookmakers.

tomahawk9

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Quote from: 9kek on January 10, 2021, 12:57:29 PM

Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

nothing has changed. House edge in btc bookmakers still bigger than fiat books because they're less liquid, this prolly won't change any time soon. But even if that weren't the case, arbing is a waste of time, so =P

Quote from: jaberwock on January 11, 2021, 05:00:48 AM

The problem with this method was that out of 10 games 1-2 games would have a goal scored i the first 10 mins which resulted in more loss than profit gained in the other 8-9 games.

eh, that wasn't the problem, the actual problem was that you were not even arbing Cheesy

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Quote from: AB de Royse777 on January 10, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Quote from: bitbollo on January 10, 2021, 01:05:43 PM

apparently nothing has changed, and as a reason I would add also the same provider for most of betting sites.
I opened some weeks ago this post asking for some update about "sure bets" but actually there is not any resource suitable for btc Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5284297

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

I really don't understand why anyone would have an issue with placing more bets. Back when I was gambling frequently, I would often place bets against each other, typically when the odds changed greatly after placing my first bet. Sometimes I could even manage to get bets placed at odds in a way where I would profit regardless of the outcome of the game. This is pretty typical hedging of bets that gamblers use, and it not only isn't illegal, or immoral, it supports the gambling house and provides you with protection. In the past I've done similar things with investing into stock options. It is possible to create a win no matter what scenario, moreso with investments than gambling, but with dynamic odds it can be extremely useful for gambling as well.

STT

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So long as there is live betting you can do arbitrage on your own bets but thats risky and I presume people who do this want to level large amounts and gain from differences while risking nothing. I'd say the perfect scenario probably doesnt exist because crypto is so changeable, I've hedged some of my bets though and sometimes I win whatever happens but usually it requires an overly popular match with odds that have swung too far to a favourite. Sometimes Ive bet against myself because its easier then trying to get the withdrawal to go through, hopefully I lose on that end and win more on a more nicely operated account not sure that counts as arbitrage exactly but it was a gain for me.

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Quote from: crzy on January 10, 2021, 05:28:10 PM

Quote from: AB de Royse777 on January 10, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Quote from: bitbollo on January 10, 2021, 01:05:43 PM

apparently nothing has changed, and as a reason I would add also the same provider for most of betting sites.
I opened some weeks ago this post asking for some update about "sure bets" but actually there is not any resource suitable for btc Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5284297

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

This is the risk of being greedy in gambling, better not to try this because I’m sure you’re on the watch list if you create profit bigger than expected. The house should always win and beside the arbitrage is also risky it cannot guarantee sure profit not unless you done this professionally.

Wanting to profit is not bad, we gamblers also want to make money through gambling, maybe get lucky and win the jackpot. Like some individuals out there who profited a lot and earned millions. The competition must be fair and give and take. We are risking our money. So a small way to atleast gain profit through arbitrage should be allowed. Anyway, i'm sure platforms doesn't restrict this. I've seen users experimenting which bookies has best odds. I guess just to be safe read their TOS.

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Quote from: crzy on January 10, 2021, 05:28:10 PM

This is the risk of being greedy in gambling, better not to try this because I’m sure you’re on the watch list if you create profit bigger than expected. The house should always win and beside the arbitrage is also risky it cannot guarantee sure profit not unless you done this professionally.

Wrong.

Arbitrage do guarantee you profit. You actually take the advantage of the odds. You place bets for both team in the same market. So one outcome is guaranteed. These days odd differences are not much so it's not easy to find odds for arbitrage like it used to be.

Quote from: jaberwock on January 11, 2021, 05:00:48 AM

I don't know about others but I tried to arbitrage in my own unique way and I failed brutally. I was basically betting on soccer games over/under market and I used to bet on under market at the start of the game or pre-match and then as the game starts , usually there are no gals in the first 10 mins which then swings the odds in favor of under and I used to bet on over market and make profit.

It's easier with different bookies and placing the bet at the same time. Some bookies had odd difference and you take the advantage of those differences not betting in the same market in different time-frame.

Here is a perfect reading for arbitrage betting: https://www.sbo.net/strategy/arbitrage-betting/

Quote

1. Using an odds comparison site such as Oddschecker, find a sporting event which offers two outcomes.
2. Find the highest odds available for each outcome from two different bookmakers.

jaberwock

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Quote from: 9kek on January 10, 2021, 12:57:29 PM

Did someone of you try to do Arbitrage on sport bets in BTC gambling sites?
Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

I don't know about others but I tried to arbitrage in my own unique way and I failed brutally. I was basically betting on soccer games over/under market and I used to bet on under market at the start of the game or pre-match and then as the game starts , usually there are no gals in the first 10 mins which then swings the odds in favor of under and I used to bet on over market and make profit.

The problem with this method was that out of 10 games 1-2 games would have a goal scored i the first 10 mins which resulted in more loss than profit gained in the other 8-9 games.

sempak

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there is a group active that makes conscious use of this. I will not mention sites, but more sites have and suffered from this. the most annoying thing is that arbitrage betters also assume that they simply have to be paid out. levski7 in the lead!

crzy

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Quote from: AB de Royse777 on January 10, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Quote from: bitbollo on January 10, 2021, 01:05:43 PM

apparently nothing has changed, and as a reason I would add also the same provider for most of betting sites.
I opened some weeks ago this post asking for some update about "sure bets" but actually there is not any resource suitable for btc Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5284297

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

This is the risk of being greedy in gambling, better not to try this because I’m sure you’re on the watch list if you create profit bigger than expected. The house should always win and beside the arbitrage is also risky it cannot guarantee sure profit not unless you done this professionally.

ralle14

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Quote from: fiulpro on January 10, 2021, 01:57:14 PM

They still earn their profits!!! then if a person is legally doing something that might prevent his chances of loosing and they aren't harming your overall earnings then why ban it in t&c ?

When you start winning they usually put a low limit instead of giving a ban on your account and they do it because long term winners prevents them from making more profit.

Quote from: fiulpro on January 10, 2021, 01:57:14 PM

I personally haven't done it because am not good at betting and due to Pandemic I do have a lot of pressure to not bet for a while therefore if I do make a bet I might just ask my friend to bet on other event with the higher outcome? This would work won't it ?

Yes, with live betting if you wait long enough you could get both sides at above even odds. On pre live it's much more difficult since you have to check so many sportsbook plus you risk your account getting limited but still possible here's a screenshot from bitodds alert

mirakal

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This isn't impossible though it's hard to arbitrage really.

I read some discussions in the past about arbitrage betting that it did not last too long because only few can really relate.
Bookies now with the use of the a good system won't allow anyone to abuse their site through arbitrage betting, I mean they have a very standard odds, if you'll find an arbitrage opportunity, it's only in a little percent of opportunity, that's why I'm saying it's hard job to do.

AB de Royse777

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Quote from: jaberwock on January 10, 2021, 02:11:23 PM

The thing is bookies won't catch you if you are smart enough specially with crypto bookies because you can make multiple accounts and bet different stakes to confuse them and keep benefiting. The problem is that hardly there are any arbitrage opportunities available because it is not easy to find markets with high variance between different bookies.

All these crypto bookies will ask you for KYC at some point if you win high and if they suspect any account. In the scam accusation board we see numbers of accusations and all those bookies are doing KYC.

So just because it's a crypto bookie that does not mean that they will no ask KYC.

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Quote from: 9kek on January 10, 2021, 12:57:29 PM

Did someone of you try to do Arbitrage on sport bets in BTC gambling sites?
Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

Nothing

I believe they use very "similar" algorithms to pre-determine which teams are most likely to win a particular game, based on previous matches.
That is why it is difficult to find good arbitrage bets.

I still prefer to place my bets in the course of a game in which I believe the end result is "against the statistics".

jaberwock

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Quote from: AB de Royse777 on January 10, 2021, 01:18:30 PM

Quote from: bitbollo on January 10, 2021, 01:05:43 PM

apparently nothing has changed, and as a reason I would add also the same provider for most of betting sites.
I opened some weeks ago this post asking for some update about "sure bets" but actually there is not any resource suitable for btc Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5284297

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

The thing is bookies won't catch you if you are smart enough specially with crypto bookies because you can make multiple accounts and bet different stakes to confuse them and keep benefiting. The problem is that hardly there are any arbitrage opportunities available because it is not easy to find markets with high variance between different bookies.

And like you said once the sportsbook finds that you are indulged in such activities they will limit your account to small stakes and in some cases even forfeit all the balance and banned from future betting.

fiulpro

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Quote from: 9kek on January 10, 2021, 12:57:29 PM

Did someone of you try to do Arbitrage on sport bets in BTC gambling sites?
Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

Hello
I do believe Arbitrage is the most intelligent strategy that one can apply for sure. It is Legal despite this the bookers they usually ban you if they find you doing something like that. But what I don't understand is :
They still earn their profits!!! then if a person is legally doing something that might prevent his chances of loosing and they aren't harming your overall earnings then why ban it in t&c ?
I personally haven't done it because am not good at betting and due to Pandemic I do have a lot of pressure to not bet for a while therefore if I do make a bet I might just ask my friend to bet on other event with the higher outcome? This would work won't it ?
I do think the House edge is something that is same everywhere therefore it does depend on how much profit you can earn and if you will make a significant amount. Making 1-2$ won't be worth it to get banned 😂.
Let us know if you try it ?
Maybe post some pictures and tell us the profit ?

AB de Royse777

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Quote from: bitbollo on January 10, 2021, 01:05:43 PM

apparently nothing has changed, and as a reason I would add also the same provider for most of betting sites.
I opened some weeks ago this post asking for some update about "sure bets" but actually there is not any resource suitable for btc Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5284297

Well make sure the bookies do not catch you on arbitrage betting. They do not like betters who do this kind of activities. For them gambling is a fun not to make money. If you find a way to make money then they will restrict you because they have a business to run LOL

bitbollo

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apparently nothing has changed, and as a reason I would add also the same provider for most of betting sites.
I opened some weeks ago this post asking for some update about "sure bets" but actually there is not any resource suitable for btc Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5284297

9kek

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Did someone of you try to do Arbitrage on sport bets in BTC gambling sites?
Some years ago i checked some sites and it wasn't possible (house edge was too big, bigger than the house edge in traditional sportbook sites).
Maybe something is changed in the last years?

Topic: Arbitrage on sports bets? (Read 331 times)