Are altcoin price movements have some mathematical explanation?

dossantosleite

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Quote from: AdolfinWolf on May 16, 2017, 11:35:55 AM

Quote from: Slark on May 16, 2017, 11:23:49 AM

Op, don't pay attention to technical analysis. It is not a good way to evaluate crypto market.
It maybe good for other assets like stocks, but crypto is just too volatile to measure by most technical indicators.
They were created long time ago to explain movements behind far more stable markets. RSI or MACD used for crypto is disappointment.

So what would you look for instead then? Things like developments or partnerships of coins that coin cause FUD? Is psychology the most important factor to determine if the coin will go up or down?

good question.

dady12

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I don't think TA have much to do with Aitcoin as this is quite different from force,check of the news on the particular coins and looking at trading volume and buy order and sell order,project developer news and what they have to offer with a bit of luck can do you good in cryptocurrency trading,what I normally do is to set my limit once I gain something small in order to minimize my loss as a coin can be dump when u are sleeping,within a second ,a coin you bought 10dollar can be 0.5cent

rickadone

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Any trading instrument (not just altcoins) will be following some patterns only if it is being traded with volume. It means if it is not being controlled by few people, then it must be having the basic aspects of support and resistance levels.

In other words, if there will be no chances for manipulations then we can find mathematical explanation with price movements of any trading instrument.

AdolfinWolf

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Quote from: Slark on May 16, 2017, 11:23:49 AM

Op, don't pay attention to technical analysis. It is not a good way to evaluate crypto market.
It maybe good for other assets like stocks, but crypto is just too volatile to measure by most technical indicators.
They were created long time ago to explain movements behind far more stable markets. RSI or MACD used for crypto is disappointment.

So what would you look for instead then? Things like developments or partnerships of coins that coin cause FUD? Is psychology the most important factor to determine if the coin will go up or down?

Slark

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Op, don't pay attention to technical analysis. It is not a good way to evaluate crypto market.
It maybe good for other assets like stocks, but crypto is just too volatile to measure by most technical indicators.
They were created long time ago to explain movements behind far more stable markets, Forex etc.
RSI or MACD used for crypto is for the most time a disappointment as these indicators often lags.

Ucy

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Quote from: Ayiranorea on May 16, 2017, 08:42:28 AM

The function of cryptocurrencies is purely on algorithmic programming. So it has got mathematical calculations in the trading purpose. None can make a exact prediction, because the system programming has the same base but will be modified based on the features added to it.

Exactly. Bot wouldn't be making correct predictions & trades if there were no mathematical calculations in trading. I assume the algorithm does lots of hard calculations before buying or selling

espante

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Quote from: mobnepal on May 16, 2017, 05:19:19 AM

Crypto market is completely different than usual forex market, those technical analysis may not be completely true in case of altcoin trading like in forex but it might help you to some extend. Hypes and Fuds have much larger effect on altcoin market.

The pump and dump mentality rains supreme because of the relatively low market capitalization of most alts and the never ending line of fools ready to follow dreaming to hit it big.

Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 09:22:44 AM

Quote from: carlfebz2 on May 16, 2017, 09:18:53 AM

Quote from: mobnepal on May 16, 2017, 05:19:19 AM

Crypto market is completely different than usual forex market, those technical analysis may not be completely true in case of altcoin trading like in forex but it might help you to some extend. Hypes and Fuds have much larger effect on altcoin market.

This is really correct, technical analysis wont really matter on crypto trading because its different for forex trading.There are some things on crypto that cannot be determined on any technical tools which we do commonly used on forex it might work sometimes but I strongly believe they wont really be needed at all but still a good choice as using it as a tool specially on making some trendlines but for Fibonacci and other stuffs would be useless at all,honestly speaking.

Thanks for your opinion. So if TA is useless for trading altcoins, what is useful and what to use in order to make predictions as accurate as possible ?
Also, do you do altcoin trading?

I do trade, generally going in for longer periods of times (several months) you can do good by understanding the fundamental side of the coin. Other than that its about reading the hype and fud that is peddled on this forum and the poloniex trollbox, and the relevant alt's slack for the most part.

AdolfinWolf

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Quote from: equator on May 16, 2017, 09:50:02 AM

Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 09:22:44 AM

Quote from: carlfebz2 on May 16, 2017, 09:18:53 AM

Quote from: mobnepal on May 16, 2017, 05:19:19 AM

Crypto market is completely different than usual forex market, those technical analysis may not be completely true in case of altcoin trading like in forex but it might help you to some extend. Hypes and Fuds have much larger effect on altcoin market.

This is really correct, technical analysis wont really matter on crypto trading because its different for forex trading.There are some things on crypto that cannot be determined on any technical tools which we do commonly used on forex it might work sometimes but I strongly believe they wont really be needed at all but still a good choice as using it as a tool specially on making some trendlines but for Fibonacci and other stuffs would be useless at all,honestly speaking.

Thanks for your opinion. So if TA is useless for trading altcoins, what is useful and what to use in order to make predictions as accurate as possible ?
Also, do you do altcoin trading?

Their is no charts for any trading of altcoins, first you have to read the details about the altcoin projects and its propectus and what is their goal to create this coin, and then how the developers are working on this project. because in the starting they can show you big roadmap but when it comes to reality they will fail and then the coin will soon get dumped and developer just run away.

No charts? Every exchange provides basic charts, and this site https://www.tradingview.com/ lets you create your own chart for most of the altcoins.

The site also provides charts from other people, and their thoughts. I wouldn't necessarily take their advice, but you can very much learn from it. This one for example, https://www.tradingview.com/chart/STRBTC/Ei6WtiOD-Stellar-Where-Have-We-Seen-This-Before/

And yes, i do think there is a technical aspect to altcoin trading, but it is pretty limited.

When looking at the volumes, comparing that to previous volumes and movements for example, to see if sell walls can be breached etcetera.

There's some good examples to see breakout points right here, http://imgur.com/a/EHuks

Ofcourse are these no longer relevant, but it is still a good example of how it could look like.

equator

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Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 09:22:44 AM

Quote from: carlfebz2 on May 16, 2017, 09:18:53 AM

Quote from: mobnepal on May 16, 2017, 05:19:19 AM

Crypto market is completely different than usual forex market, those technical analysis may not be completely true in case of altcoin trading like in forex but it might help you to some extend. Hypes and Fuds have much larger effect on altcoin market.

This is really correct, technical analysis wont really matter on crypto trading because its different for forex trading.There are some things on crypto that cannot be determined on any technical tools which we do commonly used on forex it might work sometimes but I strongly believe they wont really be needed at all but still a good choice as using it as a tool specially on making some trendlines but for Fibonacci and other stuffs would be useless at all,honestly speaking.

Thanks for your opinion. So if TA is useless for trading altcoins, what is useful and what to use in order to make predictions as accurate as possible ?
Also, do you do altcoin trading?

Their is no charts for any trading of altcoins, first you have to read the details about the altcoin projects and its propectus and what is their goal to create this coin, and then how the developers are working on this project. because in the starting they can show you big roadmap but when it comes to reality they will fail and then the coin will soon get dumped and developer just run away.

BlackPanda

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Price movement in my opinion far from mathematical. Because everything moves up and down spontaneously.
Price movements are difficult to regulate because things can happen in a very short time.

dossantosleite

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Quote from: carlfebz2 on May 16, 2017, 09:18:53 AM

Quote from: mobnepal on May 16, 2017, 05:19:19 AM

Crypto market is completely different than usual forex market, those technical analysis may not be completely true in case of altcoin trading like in forex but it might help you to some extend. Hypes and Fuds have much larger effect on altcoin market.

This is really correct, technical analysis wont really matter on crypto trading because its different for forex trading.There are some things on crypto that cannot be determined on any technical tools which we do commonly used on forex it might work sometimes but I strongly believe they wont really be needed at all but still a good choice as using it as a tool specially on making some trendlines but for Fibonacci and other stuffs would be useless at all,honestly speaking.

Thanks for your opinion. So if TA is useless for trading altcoins, what is useful and what to use in order to make predictions as accurate as possible ?
Also, do you do altcoin trading?

carlfebz2

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Quote from: mobnepal on May 16, 2017, 05:19:19 AM

Crypto market is completely different than usual forex market, those technical analysis may not be completely true in case of altcoin trading like in forex but it might help you to some extend. Hypes and Fuds have much larger effect on altcoin market.

This is really correct, technical analysis wont really matter on crypto trading because its different for forex trading.There are some things on crypto that cannot be determined on any technical tools which we do commonly used on forex it might work sometimes but I strongly believe they wont really be needed at all but still a good choice as using it as a tool specially on making some trendlines but for Fibonacci and other stuffs would be useless at all,honestly speaking.

gentlemand

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Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 08:45:19 AM

It's seems, that you just using other strategy to do trading, not choosing to do TA, but trying new coins and waiting for the big pump. Wink

Yes. It's far less hassle and all you have to do is wait. I don't think full time trading is good for anyone's mental health.

On r/bitcoinmarkets the trading obsessives often seem to crack eventually and walk away. One of the biggest sold everything at around $800 a few days before the price really started to rise.

So before you consider TA, how much control do you have over your own emotions? Will you be able to take profit at the right time? Will you know when to cut your losses?

Without that control everything else will be useless.

dossantosleite

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Quote from: gentlemand on May 16, 2017, 08:37:14 AM

Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 08:32:22 AM

I just want to make right steps without wasting time, energy and money.
But you doing trading of altcoins, right?

Yes, but very, very small amounts. I don't bother with TA, I just presume anything on Poloniex will eventually pump and sit there until it does. I've never made a loss because they're utterly shameless and will literally pump anything. I don't know how long that can last though.

My preference is to get in on the ground floor with something new. There are enough coins being given away for free. If you buy in with small amounts when they're tiny then you might get lucky, if they fail it doesn't really matter.

It's seems, that you just using other strategy to do trading, not choosing to do TA, but trying new coins and waiting for the big pump. Wink

Every person chose how they do trading, what strategy and plan to follow.

I am very new to trading stuff, so it's very interested to know more about it and about all the strategies and trading plans/methods.

But I still believe that good and proper TA minimise the risk and maximise the chance of correct prediction.

Ayiranorea

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The function of cryptocurrencies is purely on algorithmic programming. So it has got mathematical calculations in the trading purpose. None can make a exact prediction, because the system programming has the same base but will be modified based on the features added to it.

gentlemand

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Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 08:32:22 AM

I just want to make right steps without wasting time, energy and money.
But you doing trading of altcoins, right?

Yes, but very, very small amounts. I don't bother with TA, I just presume anything on Poloniex will eventually pump and sit there until it does. I've never made a loss because they're utterly shameless and will literally pump anything. I don't know how long that can last though.

My preference is to get in on the ground floor with something new. There are enough coins being given away for free. If you buy in with small amounts when they're tiny then you might get lucky, if they fail it doesn't really matter.

dossantosleite

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Quote from: gentlemand on May 16, 2017, 08:27:16 AM

Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 08:23:48 AM

So it's even not worth to learn and use? (technical analysis)

If it makes you feel better then why not?

This is the place where it pops up most often - https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/

I'm not a big trader so couldn't tell you whether it's any good, but from my observations all the TA people do is move their lines around when the price moves unexpectedly and say they knew it was going to happen all along.

I just want to make right steps without wasting time, energy and money.
But you doing trading of altcoins, right?

gentlemand

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Quote from: dossantosleite on May 16, 2017, 08:23:48 AM

So it's even not worth to learn and use? (technical analysis)

If it makes you feel better then why not?

This is the place where it pops up most often - https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/

I'm not a big trader so couldn't tell you whether it's any good, but from my observations all the TA people do is move their lines around when the price moves unexpectedly and say they knew it was going to happen all along.

dossantosleite

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Quote from: gentlemand on May 16, 2017, 08:05:39 AM

Technical analysis is hopeless enough with Bitcoin, it completely goes out the window when it comes to alts. The only explanation anyone needs is that it'll pump when the people who control them want it to, and collapse when they feel like taking some profit.

So it's even not worth to learn and use? (technical analysis)

ultrloa

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Quote from: gentlemand on May 16, 2017, 08:05:39 AM

Technical analysis is hopeless enough with Bitcoin, it completely goes out the window when it comes to alts. The only explanation anyone needs is that it'll pump when the people who control them want it to, and collapse when they feel like taking some profit.

Indeed and let simplier the thoughs on this since altcoins will pump if their are so many buys/buy orders will come to them and it will be dumped if majority of its trader selects to dump what they hold and it is proven that this matter really happens and sometimes the one who earn on it is those people who got more budget to spend on manipulating the market this matter is the same on bitcoin movements.

gentlemand

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Technical analysis is hopeless enough with Bitcoin, it completely goes out the window when it comes to alts. The only explanation anyone needs is that it'll pump when the people who control them want it to, and collapse when they feel like taking some profit.

nicolas1979

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I am sorry but not trust some kind like that, different opinion from me. Price movement is only because of supply, demand, and speculation. Price is always about number ( mathematic ) but when they moving nobody knows to where or until when, even mathematic can reach that. Mathematics can display price history and how to calculate where the price in the future, but always never same ( close yes same no ). If you have an ability in mathematic why not try to some research or strategy with real market altcoin?. I believe you will find your answer with that way. Thank you for your post.

BitcoinHodler

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HODLing is an art, not just a word...

i don't think we can call what they do "mathematical".

technical analysis is mostly pseduscinece, and by no means fool proof. it mostly gives some guidance to better guess the future movement.

and in my personal opinion technical analysis won't work at all in altcoins and will work a little with bitcoin since bitcoin price is moving more logically and altcoins prices are mostly pump and dump.
but that doesn't mean TA is useless though. you can still use it and get some good speculation out of it.

mobnepal

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Crypto market is completely different than usual forex market, those technical analysis may not be completely true in case of altcoin trading like in forex but it might help you to some extend. Hypes and Fuds have much larger effect on altcoin market.

dossantosleite

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I am very interested in trading altcoins and have my learning process already, but many stuff is hard to understand yet.
For example, I saw many videos in youtube showing about charts,how they are moving, how to add and read support and resistance areas, how to use fibonacci retracement, how to use lines and other technical analysis. So my question is, if these technical analysis really help to determine the price movement?

What is your thoughts about it? How much these analysis help to determine price movements and how much it helps in trading and predicting prices?

Topic: Are altcoin price movements have some mathematical explanation? (Read 877 times)