Topic: Are Bail-ins possible in Europe? (Read 2913 times)

Here you have a brand new article about the latest developements with Germany's gold (Title: Monkey Business):

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/

Well... why not :-), there have beem crezier stuff happening than this, and i belive it totally makes sence, its creative, efective and covert, i belive satoshi isnt even one person but rather a team.

dont forget the briliant move that (i belive) kissinger done when gold was unplugged from dollar, he managed to peg it to oil... how genial, all deals for obtaining oil had to be dealed/payed in dollars from then. And now, when dollar is failing.. here comes bitcoin...

Maybe I'm naive, but Schiff is no opportunist, he always goes against establishment and stays true to his principles. His dad is in jail for refusing to pay tax (not evasion, just outright rufusion). I believe he just doesn't get BTC and is badly informed, like many commentators out there.

The gold thing makes sense to me just as we wrote in the last posts, that's what I believe. There is no outrage because the media is a propaganda machine and people are sheep and have enough to worry about in their day-to-day lifes. Goebbels would be proud of the fine propaganda machine the Western media are at the moment.

Those BTC theories sound pretty wild to me, I have no reason to believe that. Satoshi being some government agent? I don't know...

+1 for bail-ins and wealth taxes being more "likely" than "possible". I'd say it's almost a certainty. The only real question is "when". I'd hazard a guess that we'll see them sometime before the end of 2017.

Well i belive Schiff understand BTC but he just has to interve for BTC because je is invested in it.

Well yeah, the germany situation with gold is really weird, the only explanation for is that they really dont have it there anymore, even physically not (because they would show it without any objection... since they didnt even show it to germans (i think they showed them only FEw (1-5)? Bars... :-D!? Is it even possible, and why isnt there any outrage because of this...?

The other reason might be, that USA has the gold, but doesnt want to give it back to their respected owners, and USA is betting on  the fact, that in the years ahead, there will some situation in which they simply refuse to give it back (under some pretex).

BTW whats your take on BTC... i have a little conspiracy of mine... I really belive that BTC was made by some USA agency (NSA, CIA etc.).
The reasons might be 2:

1) Counterback china, as the USD is dying, and china will want to conquer the world via their currency, usa comes with special new "undercover" currency- bitcoin.... to fight with the spreading yuan... That might also explain, why are the chinesse so bearish (bad) on bitcoin lately...

2) I belive that bitcoin might have been created also to supress the price of gold of similiar ways of protecting wealth... (well yeah... gold and silver mainly)... Because with all that money printing i think they might be worried that their current supression methods might not be so effective anymore... so they came out with a different method... make some other "place" that people might use to invest, instead of gold... Because lets face it... Bitcoin might be cool, but something physical like gold, is and always be sometinh physical... So they might have created something to "divert" attention of investors (savers) from gold, to bitcoin... and if they want, the might crash the bitcoin price with minimum effort (jsut bann the merchants from accepting it, and its finished)...

What do you think about this 2 little conspiracies about bitcoin?

That number is all over the internet, I have read it from a ton of different people really, that's why I have no doubt about it anymore. I have also sometimes read 100 times and remember having read 50 times somewhere. I never saw somebody denying this.

It's one of several reasons precious metals should skyrocket at some point. When that is, is impossible to say though.

They don't have it physically anymore, I believe so too. In case of most countries (Finland, Sweden, etc..), they have the bigger part of their gold not physically stored at home, but in London or New York vaults. This is because it's easier to roll some gold from one vault to the next in London (or maybe even just transfer it via accounting) than it would be to fly it from Stockholm to Madrid or whatever in case they lease or sell. So when they lease it, the gold is not physically relocated. It's not under their control anymore and its leased and re-leased.

That makes it a little easier to lose the overview...

I believe there is relatively little gold left in the west. It's all going towards Asia...

PS: Peter Schiff is a master in regards to PMs. He just needs to figure out BTC, ha ha...

Im in my 20-ties...

Someone will always predict imminent collapse--- Yeah thats the point, not only that the "public" government lie and manipulate but the alternative news sector je lieing also, thats sad :-).

I watched that clips... loved it, it was quite and eye opener for me, love the ones with peter schiff how were all other mocking him, that the economy is OK, and then it a month it went KO :-), loved that. I just wished the news and reporting (of the "alternative" media were more honest, more correct and less fear morgering.

Hey Mikcik, curious as to how old you are?

The economy did collapse in '08 and it has not much recovered unless you're in a minority segment of the economy (you likely are).

Someone will always predict imminent collapse. It sells news, and also the paranoids among us just push the clock two minutes forward. But people wrongly predicting does not mean a thing will not happen.

What you should also do is go back to 2007-2008 and watch CNBC clips and FBusiness news of the experts predicting how perfectly fine everything was and would continue to be. There are two sides to that coin.

Nobody knows. All we can do is take calculated risks.

But the world will not end even if the economy evaporates altogether, that is a part of it. People adapt, you look around and see everything okay, I compare it to c. 2000 and it is all not okay. It is disintegrating slowly and there are huge problems at the periphery. But this was also true in 1937. It's all relative... and yes bail-ins will happen the next time there is a major banking crisis, rest assured of that. I don't see that as imminent, but long term inevitable.

Where did you get that 70 number?

Well leased out is one thing, not being present at USA is another thing, i almost belive they dont even have the gold there physicaly (or its been replaced by tungsten), they didnt even allow germans to SEE the gold... i really belive there is no, or only a little gold.

where did you got the 70 number please?

You are kicking in open doors there, I'm the first one to believe that there is hardly any gold left in the central banks. Germany will only get back a small part of their gold till 2020. Finland and sweden were the most recent ones to admit that their gold is leased out.

All gone and every ounce sold 70 times in paper claims...

Bailins come when QE ZIRP and taxes is not enough.

Yeah i have heard that about gold and silver, i know about that.

BTW one reason the US hasnt defaulted yet might be also the fact that they have sold their gold to chinesse maybe, because i really dont belive they have a lot of gold, if youdont belive, than look at the german gov. who will be getting their gold back slowly in the next 6 years.

Also it is probably good to point out that both scenarios can happen, and they might happen even simultaneously, but i think they wouldnt risk the rage from public.
Because, the bailins, saves save the banks, but the wealth tax saves government, those are two separate subjects...?

Any party that wants to end the Euro in its current form is good enough for me... 

If there's REAL alternative of course we MUST support it but until then I'm out of this democracy charade.

BR

P.S.: I'm not saying AfD is not a valid alternative, I don't know them. Just be cautious, I've seen a lot of alternatives... of the same.

In case of your scenario, they don't even have the FUNDS to pay back all the accounts below 100k, even if they wanted to. It's a total and complete illusion to say you are save below 100k in any case. I'm not saying it WILL happen, I'm just saying it's an absolute realistic possibility.

Bonus question: Why would you keep your money at the bank at the moment? For the interrest? On a bank account, you have high risk with negative real return at the moment - which is the opposite of what people think you have: High security for a good positive return.

There is not the slightest reason to keep your money at the bank at the moment.

Posting-marathon is over, I guess the topic just got me all worked up, ha ha...!

+1 for most of the post: Exactly!

-1 for "stop voting" - not cool! There are parties who know what's up and want to end that failed Euro-experiment (I only mean the currency). "Alternative für Deutschland" in Germany, for example. Vote somebody alternative who comes close to your view.

Good post, I agree!

That's one of the reasons I'm so bullish for BTC - in a scenario like that people will be going crazy for it, no matter if they are restricted to a certain extent or not...!

How is that not confiscation or robbery? While according to official law it's not, law is not always the same thing as being morally right.

Did Hitler rob the Jews of their possessions? I would definitely say he did, but legally he was right, because he had prepared the law accordingly...

If the truth is harsh and people are sleeping, maybe you can wake them up by telling them the truth.

I don't think it would work that way. Maybe they give people some more time.

Anyways, I think that tax is more difficult to do and further away than bail-ins (for which the laws are basically in place already).

It's a good thing you know zerohedge and you are asking questions. Ultimately, you have to come to your own conclusions.

I have been spending several hours almost every day over the last 8 months to put the pieces of the puzzle together, and this is my conclusion. This is what makes sense to me, despite almost everybody in the "real world" telling me the opposite thing.

It should have happened already, but two good reasons why it hasn't: 1. The TIMING of the whole thing is impossible, don't even try to time it. 2. Desperate governments keep on finding unexpected ways to kick the can down the road one more time (QE...).

Read Andy Hoffmans posts on the Miles Franklin Blog, think about it, google if you don't understand something. He really goes into details and I learned a lot from him (his views on BTC are stupid though...).

Oh, and one more thing: Gold is an incredibly manipulated asset, that's a fact, not opinion. On a free market, its price would probably be at 3.000$ - 6.000$ right now.

Lets go back to the beginning.  When some banks got into trouble a few years back, governments bailed them out.  They poured in tax payers money to shore up the balance sheet so that the banks where solvent.  This was widely considered a bad thing, as it rewarded the banks for years of poor risk management (thats the raw nub, alot of other opinion is political and i'd rather leave that), and the presented us with a moral hazard. 

We have a banking system that assumes (because it is told so) that they will backed by nation governments if they get into difficulty.  The object of that government backing is actually to assure the population their deposits are safe, but it had come to be extended to the whole of the bank beyond depositors.  So banks took risks they wouldn't otherwise have done, lent money to those they shouldnt, or underpriced debt etc.

So the solution, to instruct the banks that actually that's not how its going to be. The depositors will be secured, as was always intended to be the case, but if they get into difficulty the first port of call isnt the government/central banks, but the owners of the bank and its principle debt, bondholders.  They reap the rewards, so they have to bail-in their assets to shore up the balance sheet.  by converting their debt to equity, or by buying more equity in a rights issue, they refund the balance sheet to remain solvent.  Its all about the balance sheet.

Well and isnt the whole idea of the bail-in the fact that you "actually" really didnt lose the money, that you just voila... become a shareholder of the bank? (when in reality yeah, you lost the money, and they gave you some stupid paper claiming that you own a share in the bank now...)

some of us doesnt understand the topic, but it might be me, could someone clarife that?

I agree - there would probably be plenty of people who (a) didn't figure it out, (b) were out of the country, (c) stupid or uninformed, or something else who wouldn't move their accounts under the 100k limit, but in the US in 2008, there were articles in the media about getting your balance under the FDIC limit.  So even if only 50% of the people did it, it would devastate their plans for funding and I bet there would be way more than that.

The guaranteed deposits are only guaranteed until they decide they have no other choice and then they are no longer guaranteed.

Will they go after the people under 100K Euro?  If they feel that they need the money and have no other way, then yes.  Will it happen?  I don't know, I don't think anyone does, but the IMF/Central Banks etc float ideas for a reason and if they can't print (inflate) their way out of the problems, then they'll use "other means".  The US has the ability to print and might think that will solve all their problems, but many countries don't and that is for a good reason - it is irresponsible and immoral to foist your debts off on future generations.

Dont think you quite understand the details of a bail-in.  They wont "go after" the deposits under €100k because they've guaranteed those deposits.  Deposits above €100k might be subject to a haircut, if needed, but there would have to be a very bad situation for a bank to be that distressed.  The whole point of the bail-in is for bondholders and shareholders to take the burden of any problem (since they take the benefits of gains made from risks that come good), so that the deposits are secured.  

The situation in Cyprus is a poor example as they didn't really know what they were doing/supposed to do/could do legally (effectivly they breached the  € rules on their first "plan" by ignoring implicit security of small depositors).  A better reference would be Cooperative Bank in the UK, that is how bail-ins are supposed to work.

Bail-ins: banks close Friday, surprise bail-ins announced Friday night, banks reopen late the following week and your balance is only 80% of what it was before.

Wealth tax: banks/markets close Friday.  Surprise Wealth tax announced based on closing prices that day and are due within 60-90 days (or at the end of the quarter) with the 10% taken right from your account that weekend.

Will it happen soon? Probably not, but these trial balloons are used for some time before it does so they can see what they can get away with and get people accustomed to the idea and terms - "oh that old idea, we've been hearing about it for 3 years  now, so it must be something we need to do."

Thats a great post, some posts are good because i cant figure everything (regrettably) myself :-(.

I didnt realize that majority of the people will move their funds in one bank account under 100 K euro, so above that limit, there wont be anything to confiscate... On the other hand dont underestimate the stupidity of people :-), on the other hand again, when you have over 100 K i euro, theres a reasonable chance, you are not stupid :-).

So do you guys think that they will go for money even under the 100 K euro? Well in that case i think that they would confiscate it all in one turn (to prevent the run on other banks , that are in a bad shape now, but still ok, but might fail in horizont of few months).

Also, how would the 10 % wealth tax played out?

- Is it for the entire (western) world? Or just USA? Just the real in debt problem countries, only eurozone (EU countries which pay with euro), only EU etc.?
- What do you think would be the timeframe? Would it be a short period (like 1.1.2015 theres an announcment that all people with nerth wealth will have to pay 10% until 31,1,2015 (only in a month), or will it be a londer period (pay your share of wealth tax, you have one year to do so)...? Because when theres a short time period you might not pay it (the tax) because you wotn get the cash so quickly. When theres a logn time period, you might try to cheat the tax somehow...

So what do you think, how would it play out?

In Cyprus they initially planned it in everyone, until there was outrage. I dare say in Cyprus there are very few people keeping over 100k Euros in any one bank now. Likewise if I were in a country and started hearing about bank issues, I would immediately get below the limit.

Then what? Most people do that because they aren't dumb and that means that everyone ends up paying since there is not enough money above the limit to steal, I mean confiscate, I mean, some word that means steal, bit sounds better. :-)

The global financial system is a mess and overdue for collapse for many years. The fact that it hasn't collapsed yet is because the (central) banks are able to create currency out of thin air and pump the economy (selected financial institutions and big corporations) while the People gets the inflation part of it in food prices and home bills. On the other hand all big western corporations has almost ceased their domestic production and export it to the East while smaller businesses cannot compete with cheap (for the time being at least) eastern labor and thus consequently fall out of the game.

But all things being finite (not sure about human stupidity though) the game will come to its end eventually. The problem is nobody knows the exact time of the next big black swan effect. All we can do is make our own decisions about our investments and I'm not talking about financial aspect only. Oh yeah, and stop voting! Politicians are all part of the same scam. Their job is to write favourable laws... yeah you guessed it right, they're not in the best interest of the People. So, stop voting and maybe there will be some peaceful change of scenery when the voting participation fall below 10% or so. Well they will probably ignore that signal as well and write some new laws making elections legitimate event at those ridiculous levels.

After all said I cannot imagine a very nice conclusion of the drama we're living in but I still hope I'll be proven wrong. Maybe we can overtake them on the right with cryptos or something. Who knows?

BR

100%. look in the past (zyprus, great depression etc) to see the future.

So about Bailins...

- I think its the "last step", nobody will try it, until its really necessary.
- They might try it once or twice again in some "major country" (in eurozone) and be really worried
- If they tried it for the (i dont know) third time, they will do it in a big scale (for example in ALL troubled banks in eurozone, or european union in general)
Because with each additional bailin, the faith in banks starts to crumble a LOT (!) and theres a big risk of "global" run on banks which nobody can afford. So i think one or twice more, and then suddenly in ALL (troubled) BANKS together at one moment (to prevent run on banks), and say that "its done" all banks are safe now. This would really hurt the faith in banking, but still it wouldnt really destroy it (like a global run on banks probably would).
So we might see 1 or at most 2 bailins in little more important countries (than Cyprus was) and then it goes BIG.
-Bailins apply for ammount ONLY (?) above 100 000 EUR (the smaller ones are insured).

Do you agree with this, or did i miss something?

Should anybody with less than 100 K EUR in a bank account be worried about Bailins?

Also this scenario would be good for the price of bitcoin, maybe a BIG time. Altough if there would be applied also capital controls (like in cyprus when you cannot deposit more then 100 EUR a day for example), and they probably would be in place to manage the panic, its a question how much money would flow in bitcoin since majority of paper money is on bank accounts, and when they are frozen or terrible slowed down, you dont have the money to diversife savings into bitcoin...

whats your take on this?

Yeah i saw that thread but will have to read through it still

"Yes, but I would prefer if we call it what it is. Confiscation of private property, robbery, stealing from private bank accounts etc."

Well i wouldnt really call that, becuase itrs not "true"= not correct for the "masses". When anybody says anything like this, its get dismissed by the "ordinary" people because it just doesnt sound possible, use correct terms, this is NOT one of them (even if in the burden core it is true)
You watch too much max keiser.

Article about this:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/10/23/why-the-imfs-10-wealth-tax-simply-will-not-work/
also
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrezza/2013/10/15/the-international-monetary-fund-lays-the-groundwork-for-global-wealth-confiscation/

Also i would like to add, according to the official page of the IMF (so the default source of this info) (at least i think it was that page :-), dotn have a link now):

The 10% tax would apply only to HOUSEHOLD (not individuals, at least i understand it this way) and only those with NET worth ( wealth-debts= positive) so people with a lot of debts wont be affected (probably?). Also under the phrase "household" i understand that if 2 parents live in one house, still with their children (who already have their income) that all these 4 people would pay only one 10% tax from their net worth (so if you have a net wealth, try moving in with some of your family member that has a lot of debts into one household, and you should be free from taxation :-) ).

Surprised no one mentioned this thread yet:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/my-bank-accounts-got-robbed-by-european-commission-over-700k-is-lost-160292
This was during the Cyprus bail-in.

Yes, but I would prefer if we call it what it is. Confiscation of private property, robbery, stealing from private bank accounts etc.

All EU countries are governed by the central EU leaders. In the case of my country over half our laws come from them, and the rest that we are allowed to make fall within that framework. I expect the numbers are similar for other countries but have no hard numbers on that. In essence, we are right now living in the United Nations of Europe. It's just not official yet and people like to be in denial about it.

What this means is that what can happen in one EU country can happen in any or all of them. Cyprus was a test case to see what the masses will tolerate. It will happen again, and again and again as long as we have countries going bankrupt.

lol... that will be an interesting situation. Net liability greater than net worth. In that case, I think the bankers will ask the individual to do forced labour. 

Totally agree and always agreed on :-)... On the other hand, there nothing as liquid as cash. BTC is still not and option for all savings (becauce GOV can ban it simply, rendering the price really low a really long time).

This is just one person example and it looks nice. But make that x1 000 000 people and you have recipe for a disaster. Who will buy they homes if so many people will be forced to sell it asap? And what will happen with people who have mortgages and they loan will be bigger than they home value? Banks will demand money to cover difference and if you wont pay, they will auction your house. This will make house prices fall dramatically. And probably not only this but cars and other assets too. I don't need to explain what will happen next.

Verses a bank collapse?  No.  We have to remember when they talk of bail-in they don't affect those below the threshold of the state guarantees, about €100k.  Their aim is bondholders €billions, converting secured loans to equity precisely to protect the depositors.

Well yeah i have read the articles (mostly on zerohedge), but i think they are quite over-reacting and blowing things out of proportion... Like when science say that they found a micribiological evidence of extraterestrial life and suddenly all news mediea are reporting on scientist founding out little green/grey men... Total overreacting and total blownout of proportion...
I came across these "conspiracy economy theories" (us dollar dead, supression of gold etc. etc.) in aprial 2013, so im quite new to the topic, but i remember that a lot of poeple said that the US (or global) economy will fail in spring 2013, then in summer, 2013, then in autumn, then in winter 2013... and still nothing... And it goes on and on (jsut put "economic collapse YEAR" in youtube search (e.g. economic collapse 2006 or other years) and youll find out that the economic collapse (which bailins are a part of) has been here since i dont know... 2005 or even earlier and still nothing has happened... the world should have ended at least 10 times now (due to economic problems) and still nothing happens. So even when i belive LONG term that th US will fail, there will be quite big economic problems in the world (worlwide stron depresion?) I also belive that the news media (even the alternative ones) are hugely exaggerating the issue... So when they say "Get ready to bailins in europe" i think we are still maybe even years away and it wont be as painfull as they painted out.
Thats why im writting here (probably not the best place due to the over-enthusiastic people around here) for different opinions...

The governments that can print will print, the governments that can't print (Euro zone) will be forced to bail-in, cue many concessions and severe austerity. At some point a country will say "no" to these and leave the Euro and that's when the SHTF for the Euro. It was quite close with Cyprus, but the politicians are often bought.

Of course nobody would ever do that!!! It's just a chat in parliament amongst friends, what were you thinking!?

Yeah, I can't believe how naive the people are about this, really. You don't get any real return for your money on a savings account, just a big real loss, and on top of that your money might be bailed in? And you are still leaving it on the account?

A tiny, but smart minority goes the other way and buys precious metals and maybe BTC... and they will be rewarded big time!

But you can also see it that way: If everybody was smart about it, we couldn't gain anything here. Just let the masses of idiots do the main part of paying through inflation and bail-ins...

A 10% wealth tax will be horrible. It will be much worse than the Cyprus haircut. And in some cases, it will ruin the people and turn them homeless.

For example, lets consider the example of someone, who is having outstanding loans worth some $100K, lives in a house which is worth $500K, and having no other assets. Now his net wealth is $400K, and @ 10% wealth tax, he will have to pay $ 40,000 to the government. He is having no other asset other than the house. So what he will do? He will have to sell his house immediately, which will make sure that he receives only a fraction of the actual worth. In the end, he will be left homeless, with $200K or something in his hand.

Lol, I'm sure bail-ins are coming here in Europe, believing anything else is very naive. That being said, nobody in the population believes bail-ins are coming...

I'm not sure how it works with national law, but I'm sure the European and US economy are a total mess right now and can only go downhill from here...

I'm not here to write you a 70-page essay about the arguments, but you can read up on it all over the internet in alternative media. Check out pages like zerohedge, King World News, Silver Doctors, Miles Franklin Blog. Just don't believe the mass media, they are just propaganda machines at the moment...

This will be massively bullish for gold, silver and, if governments don't find a way to take it out of the game, for BTC. I think BTC doesn't even have to be used as a currency then, just it being a safe store of value would be enough. That's what I'm talking about in my thread here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-worthless-if-not-usable-as-currency-396216

Not only possible....probable at some point in the future.

Canada has had some talks about adding the possibility of bail-ins to the next budget...although of course with the addendum of "oh we would NEVER do that, we were just chatting about it in parliament"...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-confiscation-of-savings-in-canada-cyprus-style-bail-ins-proposed-by-ottawa-government/5329263

The US as well...

http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/americans-warned-bank-bail-ins-coming/



Just do a search for "XXX country +bailins" and you will find every country in the world salivating over "the Cyprus experiment".

See Cyprus to show bail-ins are possible in Europe. Laws are added when needed.  As far as the wealth tax, it is certainly possible and increasingly likely.

Are Bail-ins and the IMF 10% wealth tax possible in Europe?

Are bail-ins really possible in Europe? What about the countries that dont pay with Euro... Whats your take on this?

I watch several videos and read several articles where they said so (that bailins are possible), and that they are in the laws already... On the other hand i had also read that bailins will be included in "nations" (?) laws not sooner than in 2018... so wheres the truth now...? Who should i belive... i feel that a lot of the articles about bailins comming soon are just fear mongering conspiracy idiots (i belive in a lot of "conspiracy theories" but they are blown out of proportion a lot of the times)...

So whats your thought on bailins and the 10% IMF wealth tax?


How would it affect bitcoin? (i think the price would rise of course).

Wouldnt it cripple the faith in banks forever...?
Would also some bank restrictions (capital control, you can withdrawl for example only a small specific ammount from your bank account)... Wouldnt it cripple the bitcoin exchnages, because people wouldnt be simply able to buy a sufficient ammount on BTC?

Whats your INFORMED opinnion on this issue, whats your arguments ("I FEEL it wont happen" really doesnt count, so as "i think the banksters will take all your money" also doesnt apply).

(if you dont know what bail-in is dont reply :-) )