Topic: Are people getting greedy again so soon?? (Read 5391 times)

My predictions following the crash are totally wrong because I fell into the same trap as everyone else - using the past to predict the future - Newsflash, it doesn't work! If we were talking about a mature market, which was totally commoditized, then my prediction involving the removal of all the bubble money before it starts again would make sense .. BUT ...

We have 2 months of big news bringing people with money into bitcoins.  Every one of those people wants to make money, and as such, were interested in getting in early.  Early is defined differently depending on your viewpoint.  Its $2 for old times, its $20 for people like myself, and its $140 for the new people.

If the price is $70 - its dirt cheap and we know its going to at least double in the near future, so is a good investment.  We also have the likes of Max Keiser talking about $100k bitcoins, so every price is cheap at the moment - so why wait?

I really think we are going back to $200 by the end of May - if not the end of April - and its only going to get more volatile!

$1000 by Xmas is still an evens bet!

The more I learn about BTC the more sarcasm I hear in posts like this

Just more and more peoples catching on the beauty and the genuis of bitcoin, this can bull to over 200..

Let see if the trend still intact by the end of next week.

Probably the next evolution of the internet before we get VISR's and can enter real Virtual reality and the first decent reform of currency that lead to more fancy things we haven't thought up yet in some book or a footnote lol.
Virtual worlds 1st major currency traded online
But I also want to live to see what will happen

QFT

I hitched my wagon to it, but I have no idea how or why this is happening.

I've learnt one thing from all this.

Fuck daytrading.

Haven't lost money - but I've got NFI what's going on.

Hmm I would like to change my opinion well Colbert has a big base and with the investment firms will cancel the deadcat bounce a bit and say this may be a second rally instead  if not == true go to opinion B XD

Hell yes there is new moneYcomming into the bitcoin mkt. I read and watched btc for two years, until the spike I really didnt take it seriously, now I have been waiting 8 days to get verifieD  mtgox and am still 8756 back in the que.
All the things everyone is talking about, you should be rejocing about if seing btc evolve into what, I thought you wanted it to become, a true altenative currency that does not inflate every ear to a lower value.
Anyone who looks at the dffrerence in the high price and where it is now is not seeing what I see, what I look at is the price it was in january 2012 compared to wher it is now.
I am a financial advisor full time, and if this were a stock with the exact same chart and I still saw the number of new buyers begging to get in (as I am) I would mortguage my house to buy more of that stock.

to smooth out the volatility just keep some of your money in fiat and some in bitcoin for now. Remember if one is down the other is up. dont spend your btc when it is down use fiat then.

BE HAPPY!  BITCOIN HAS GONE MAINSTREAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It takes a while until the new users are able to use the system, verification of account or new funds take days.
And at least some of the new users will buy, so it's not a bad idea.

Bitcoins were featured on Colbert Report yesterday. This is all the current users getting in before the millions who were just exposed get a chance to buy some.

Well O'Leary and some major investment firms may be putting some money in right now to acquire some positions which would explain the higher trade volumes but using standard parabolic bubble data theirs usually a corrective bounce known as the deadcat before we start to see real price changes so depends

Western Union and Moneygram article link for the lazy:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/2013-04-18-foxbusiness-bitcoin-buzz-draws-western-union-moneygram-179943

IMHO the recent "bubble" as it's been called, was from Venture Capital and other wealthy investors and they got a bit hyper. Since crash was caused by MtGox lag, they did what any reasonable person would do: wait a week and see if MtGox lag recurs. Lag is fixed, so it's back to normal slow steady rise.  If we are at 140 by April 26 that's a doubling every month.  Any faster and I expect more corrections.

Many SilkRoad sellers have won more money by now from selling some of the stack in the bubble than from selling drugs. I'm sure.
Almost all my coins went to SilkRoad or other shops also.   

When I bought my first Bitcoins for Silk Road purchases (nearly all my Bitcoins have gone there), it cost me around 3 GBP, about 8-9 months down the line, Bitcoins were costing about 5-6 GBP. Now this is almost a 100% move in less than a year. But you know what, traders and people doing business with Bitcoin can deal with this. They cant deal with what has happened between March and April 2013.

If the coin ranges around 100 - 150 USD for the next 6 months, in the world of Bitcoin, that is stable and individuals who are likely to make economic transactions using the currency will be able to deal with this, thus a "stable base" will have been found. But I dont believe that this will turn out to be the stabilised price. I think that there is still a shit load of speculative hot money that will seek to leave Bitcoin as soon as it realises that for now, the parasite party is over.

The previous crash 17 to 2 or there abouts was much larger, a crash of the same size would have seen this go to about 9$...

It tried to break through $50....twice if not more....

I wish it went to a few $ then I could buy

I have sells at 140$ and buys at 50$      Dispersed, but like 50% is in these two points.

the part that bothers me a is that the total volume of coins for sale today is 1/3 what it was yesterday (on Gox).  That either means that 'Joe the plumber' owns 2/3 of the bitcoins now (could be a good thing in the long run as they get familiar with market making skills)  or more than likely, the price is being pumped in preparation for the next dump.  I probably shouldn't point out how easy it is to tell that there is an unrestricted rise at the moment.  But they didn't pay me to stay quiet.  =)   So, it's a cautious buy from me for today, but no higher than 115 for today, which means I either go to the bank tonight for deposit, or sit this price out and wait for the market to cool down.

I imagine it will go down somewhat, enough for permabears to shout beartrap 1000 times, but when/if it becomes clear that it is only a correction from this movement that kind of talk will start to fade.

Without a doubt it's new money. Go look at the total volume for the last 11 days in USD. It is massive. The order book is at an ATH as well.

It feels crazy, doesn't it?

Its a bounce just wait for it to go back down

I'm 50/50 on whether this is new buyers popping up and shoving money into the market or just a dead cat bounce after the bubble inevitably popped.  If it's the former than it's time to cautiously buy, if it's the latter it's a very good idea to sit out a few months and let others get burned.

Personally I think that we're seeing a lot of people with Fiat transferred in from the delayed MtGox queues. They held off after the crash began because they didn't want to buy in not knowing where the bottom was. Since it's "stabalised" we're seeing a lot of these new people jump onto the bandwagon at "low" prices of 50-100 because that's all they've ever known. I'm expecting it to go up to around 130-150 before we have another correction.

Exactly, I've been in this for years and have watch 'corrections/crashes/bubbles' of various sizes happen many times now and bitcoin has always come out on top. Right now we have more positive media coverage than ever... and that s AFTER this latest correction. It is really quite incredible.

I bought, bull now. The Western Union news are very good. And if It comes down, well, I suppose that we are gonna hit maximums again, so fuck that.. If It dips, more fiat to buy btcs.

There is likely still tons of new money coming in, based on the huge queue for Mt. Gox. The new guys are probably hoping for the price to shoot back up again, and I think it will. People who got burned in the crash might be more wary. Personally I've been in the Bitcoin game for a while so this volatility doesn't bother me much.

ya man just wait till we start making new all time highs again and then be but hurt about selling

are people getting butt hurt too soon?? Lol

Oh, I learned my lesson and it was expensive (at least for the moment). So I was looking for some well explained/defended opinions.

edit:
To put it in perspective:


My point is if we are looking at "likely?"

Then wait 5-10 years.  It is that simple.  Bitcoin will never be stable with an ultra-tiny money supply.  It isn't going to happen.  Wanting and wishing for a sub $1B highly stable currency is just a pipe dream.  Look at the volatility of the silver market, although less volatile than BTC it still has some gut wrenching moves from time to time and that is with a "money supply" valued at around $30B.  Now gold with $7,000B "money supply" is rather stable (most days).

There never has been and likely never will be a tiny market which is also highly stable.  What makes something stable (in the free market) is huge sums of wealth on both sides.  "Bid walls" if you want to use that terminology in the tens of millions of dollars.   To move gold (May futures contract) $1 per ounce takes about $250,000,000 (short or long).  When Bitcoin has that kind of market depth it will be stable (or at least stable-ish).   Now how do you get that kind of market depth when the Bitcoin money supply is less than $1B?  (Hint: you don't).  So if you want stable ... then wait.  In 5-10 years Bitcoin will have a lot less volatility.  The BTC money supply will probably be in the tens of billions of US dollars ... or it will be zero.  Either way it will provide the stability you are looking for.  In the interim if BTC is either going to tens of billions or zero over the next decade how exactly would that happen in a gradual low volatility manner?  (Hint: it won't).

Note: this isn't to say one should be bullish on the price change in the short term.  That is a different debate.  However Bitcoin isn't going to be any more stable if it declines another 80%.  It is going to be just as volatile at $20 USD:BTC as it is at $100 USD:BTC.

I don't know what you 'should' do ... but what you should not do is panic. If you are going to do anything, do some research, read some (diverse) opinions, and then form your own so you have it mapped out in your mind and it is your own plan. If you only ever act on other people's advice or opinions you will never know what to do ... in the long run that is likely to be expensive

Thanks for the constructive input. Sounds reasonable.

I'm waiting myself for some kind of speedy dump to buy lower. But the news about Money Gram and Western Union are very bullish indeed..
Probably the best news that had happened till the moment to bitcoin if they became some kind of local exchangers of bitcoins all across the globe.

To translate: "I was speculating and lost everything. Ignore everything I am about to say because it will make you lose all your money too."

Seriously guys does it make any sense? I have some fiat ready and really don't know what to do... In like 12 hours we jumped almost +20 %.

+1

All sorts of new people in the casino now with different strategies and agendas ... interesting times indeed

+1 I believe this to generally be the case. There are still people this week learning about BTC that didn't even know about it until AFTER the correction/sell off. They could very well be watchful and careful but still very curious. As they watch the price rise they may very well want in. Others won't be careful at all and will see get rich quick possibilities. All kinds of new people coming to the table.

Like somebody mentioned earlier, the selloff was caused by greed.  Short-term speculation and the desire to make a quick buck.  It doesn't just go one way - greed isn't something that only exists when the price is going up, and it isn't gone when the price is stable.

The fact that bitcoin has not completely disintegrated and seems to have landed somewhere between $70 and $90 is a clear sign that it's not going anywhere.  Investing at this point is simply an acknowledgment of that.  The bust scared a lot of speculators; what remains is a growing number of people who believe in bitcoin's long-term potential.

Perhaps.

But for this to be the case, Bitcoin needs to attract a steady supply of fresh capital and i will tell you what, I wouldnt touch Bitcoin with a shitty bargepole right now, not until I have seen some long term stability, at whatever price. I think after the spectacular crash that Bitcoin has had, that most wise money feels the same way.

Due to the fact that Bitcoin is not going to appear overly appealing to fresh capital, I say it will stagnate lower over the near/medium term. Of course, the same cabal of parasites working to line there own pockets|bring Bitcoin down may have other ideas and could once again, move to drive the price exponentially higher in the near future. If this happens, as most people here are hoping, then it spells long term death for Bitcoin.

keep on crashing as long as the price keeps going up
i think what everyone learned is as the price falls keep buying. foolish people selling

Not everyone agrees that this is a deadcat bounce. Even bears like Proudhon have gone bullish now. I've been through so many of these 'crashes' now it doesn't phase me, and I think it doesn't phase many people. A correction was needed badly anyway. Sure this could end up being a bulltrap/dead cat bounce, no one knows the future, but we may simple continue the upwards trend that hasn't been broken yet.

That sounds like you lost money.

Fastest way to become a bear is to lose money.

If Bitcoin is to grow, then it must stagnate and find a stable base at any given price. I would suggest that it would be very unlikely that this stable base remains around the $100 mark, as their as still plenty holders of Bitcoins seeking short term profits and once these hands see that Bitcoin isnt going anywhere anytime soon, they will pull out, thus lowering the price further. Such people may be those who rushed in to capitalise on the dead cat bounce, those who have already seen the opportunity to make glittering profits and seen their equity savagely reduced, or indeed those who have infact lost money on bitcoin (often the most stubborn sellers). As it becomes obvious that the price is only going to slip lower over time, practically everyone holding Bitcoin as a store of value will seek to take some gains and or cut losses.

Whatever the price turns out to be, a stable baseline price is needed in order that real Bitcoin economic transactions have time to recover (yes, many business people have been totally fucked over by the April crash, as was totally predictable, just nobody knew for sure when this would happen), and time to further develop itself which will result in a steady flow of price insensitive Bitcoin users, i.e. people like myself who buy them and then spend them right away, rendering anything other than wild flucatations as inconsequential to our financial health. Either this happens, or Bitcoin continues to be hijacked by the spirit of parasitic speculation, which will destroy the fundamentals upon which Bitcoin relies, and the whole thing goes up in smoke and goes down n history alongside Dutch Tulips and French Colonial Bondsi as another classic lesson in self imploding speculative mania.

And one hundred 

A circle on a graph saying a rally is short term memory and greed, and you insisting that we are in a bear market, does not create the reality that we are in a bear market. The price went down into the 50s and met an incredibly strong support, and that support has followed the price all the way up into the 90s. People saw that bitcoin has the potential to be $200+, they saw that is has crashed in the past and recovered. The mindset now is get in cheap because whether it goes up tomorrow or a month from now, its going up. Sorry you missed the cheap buy-in point, but its not too late to get in for you

I'm seeing this all the time, both in these forums and surrounding me. People saying "nice it popped, now I can get on board and wait for the next bubble"

Kinda sad and pathetic if you ask me

Then wonderful. What I meant was get rich quick types who are going to panic quickly and do stupid things with their money. Weakhands.

What if I truly believe in the concept and believe I will get rich from it at the same time(we're still early adopters, a few years into the future, if it achieves widespread adoption, having 1 bit coin will be like having a gold bar)?

I'd say people aren't anymore or less greedy than they were before. Many people believe we simply had a much needed correction, and a bottom arrived in the 50s. There is plenty of media still taking bitcoin seriously rather than just dismissing it as a failed bubble. They discuss volatility and 'last weeks high' rather than laughing it off. That causes other people to take is seriously too including the 20,000+ a day of new people signing up to MtGox. Many of these people are get quick rich newbs, but plenty of others will genuinely love the concept and will join as new 'true believers.'

I actually think that the crash made more people believers than doubters.

'Biggest crash' huh? maybe by value lost, but in terms of % this is small.

The only reason bitcoin crashed in the first place is to "short-term memory and greed" by that logic.

The situation is very different now, lots of new people buying bitcoins and strong support building up at $70-$80-$90. I don't think it's another greed and delusion phase, we're slowly moving up with strong support following behind it. We didn't have that before. Still there is great resistance and selling pressure at $100 though, so it might be a bumpy ride before we confidently get through this barrier. I doubt we are going below $80 again barring some really bad news which could always happen. The buying pressure is truly scary when we dive below 90, the person who tried to trigger a panic sell last night with his 5k coins found that out the hard way.

Media coverage, new stores accepting BTC everyday, news about infrastructure being upgraded, plans on opening proffesional exchange in London etc.

Exactly. Bitcoins did not change. THE MARKET changed.

The technology underlying the asset does not affect the emotions of traders. We are now in a bear market, which means the trend is DOWN. If someone disagrees with this, I would like to hear what exactly changed between April 15 and today that is getting people so pumped again. I can't see any reasons other than short-term memory and greed.

The market changed how?

Bitcoins are not any less useful this week.

What changed was that people freaked and sold.

The people who are getting greedy now aren't even the same people.

They are new investors that just learned about bitcoin and want a part of it.

No. i.e. the market changed fundamentally following the events of Apr 10. We are not in a bull market any more. And just like when we were in a bull market, any dips were temporary and quickly rebounded (e.g. Valentine's Day), in the same way when we are in a bear market any rallies are temporary and bound to collapse. You can still make money ("bulls make money, bears make money ...") but you need to be able to read the situation and adapt to changes as they occur, and failure to do so due to stubbornness will fuck you up ("... and pigs get slaughtered").

In other words, there is nothing wrong with being a bull or being a bear. But it's not some tribal affiliation that you need to keep for life. Truly successful investors know when to change their mind and switch between the two.

LOL

+1

i.e:

It made sense to buy when cost $200, but now that its <$100, its obviously overpriced.

It's a free market. How should we lower the price when people want to have bitcoins? You can't forbid them to buy and they also can't buy it cheaper than anyone is willing to sell.

Exploit the greed. Sell high buy low. Repeat over and over.  Double, triple your profit.

I think the greedy and shortsighted were the ones selling

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
― Warren Buffett

I used to be a huge bull up until the crash. I am no longer trading due to personal circumstances. But in general, I think that to be successful you have to know when to adjust your views. Those who are stubborn get burned.

This is how I see it: