Topic: Are spectacular returns over for bitcoin? (Read 611 times)

Bump.

With the recent developments, with the price clearly dropping from the ATH of the previous cycle, I believe it is relevant to bump this thread.

To what I was saying in the OP, which was based on not making more than 3.5 the ATH of the previous cycle, add this.

I think from now on the predictions are not going to be as bullish as what we were seeing in the second half of last year.

And that technical analysis based on a repeat of the cycle pattern has been proven wrong.

We cant just based on the events that happened last year 2021 but we can also based on events earlier than that year. Same when we expect higher pumps, we aren't only basing on the year 2021 or 2020 but we use the year 2017 as reference.

Everything is possible especially in cryptocurrency (like what they always say) so as 20k dip for btc although I think it will be harder now for it to happen because many people have learned their lessons from the past, add in the new people that constantly enter this market. Anyway we can still buy at 30k or 40k levels since it's expected that btc are mostly going upwards than downwards.

70k this year seems quite reasonable though Im not bullish enough to believe we pass that or even sustain that high.  I think we rise, we get some highs then sell off and repeat.  Some will be disappointed but its just more of the same and on a multi year basis its very positive price action imo.   We are certainly rising but Ive always said its not a good idea to want this to occur all in one year, its too brief a time; gradually is far better for accumulated gains.

Cycle would continue and get used into those Fuds,false information or news circling around because this community isnt surrounded by the same people who do share up on the same thoughts.
There's always those people who are criticizing and focuses more on negatives rather than positive of Bitcoin.

More adoption, more lies can be seen and even Binance can't control such a thing. Well, these journalist has a huge impact on the market once they spread wrong information as any people are still reliant on them rather than instead of asking into the site itself. Negative news, FUDs, scamming,  anything bad can be heard around but this will never stop the growth of Bitcoin and certainly, we'll see its spread and more adoption.

The partnership of Binance with Forbes may really of help when it comes to not spreading lies and nonfactual crypto-related articles. Definitely, this partnership has motives in terms of marketing, promotion of binance platform. But also, in the process, binance team has also the privilege to say something if their journalists are writing negative articles towards crypto especially if they are not supported by facts. With this high-value collaboration, some people may take a look at binance or other crypto sites and will be soon part of crypto community, which means, more adoption.

There has to be bigger bad news than the China ban or any crypto ban in any country as well as the cancellation of Tesla's adoption as a means of payment to make bitcoin price drop by more than 60% ATH in one month. This means that there is a more than 60% chance of a decline in the future and you can't turn it down if something bad happens to bitcoin. If you think $100K is possible, then you should also believe $10K is possible even though bitcoin is currently trading at $44K.

I just thought of something reasonable about the price of bitcoin because so far its price fluctuations have given me a lot of experience. There is always an opportunity to make a profit if you truly believe in bitcoin, but most traders are not brave enough to do so simply because they want to buy at a lower price.

Hey OP, didn't see this earlier I think, and hadn't taken you for an S&P vet -- though am not surprised given the quality of your contributions and comments.

I went through this phase actually even in 2020 -- I'd always held that the rally was coming and when it did, was only strengthened in my belief that the super cycles are over. Last year only cemented that belief -- even when 100k was still in play, it represented a "mere" 5x of the previous ATH, and the market thus far already to me invalidates the 12-month odd rally phase that many (including myself) had been expecting.

Doesn't change my decided stance with Bitcoin. It's the price of maturity. And it's a fair price.

I am considering investing more in bitcoin during a price correction although I know what other risks there are when I buy on a dip. Sometimes taking decisions is not easy because it is a risky investment but I just try to do it as long as I can bear the loss. When I start thinking about long term targets then everything seems safe to do with bitcoin where price volatility is not the reason why I shouldn't buy and collect more.

This has become a very familiar trend among traders and investors. Accumulate with each dip, collect more and hold for the long term. Although profits are not guaranteed, 1 bitcoin will still be 1 bitcoin if we really keep it safe.

well what is spectacular ?

  gold in 1999 was $250
 gold in 2022 is say $1750


the dollar moved from 1 to 1.84 in that time frame

so 1750/250 = 7 to 1  last 22 years for gold

and dollar dropped 1.84 to 1

so about 4x for gold over 22 years.

do I think BTC will do 4x from 69k or 276k by the year 2043 yeah easy.  but many would think 4 x in 22 years is not much gain

do I think btc will be 1 million by 2043 not sure. realistically 1 million for btc may never happen.

I would guess that it could still go down, and it could still go down too much, like 20k. However, the reality is that whales do not just "not let it happen", they simply accumulate during that period. They have more data than we could ever hope for which means that we are in a situation where we could technically see whales who end up seeing how much they could buy without disturbing the market movement.

So, if it goes down 10%, they check how much they could buy to make it a 9% drop without no increase at all, just buy within the system while going down to make it look like it is failing to stop going down. That way it still goes down, but they are collecting it while it is going down. When the price goes up, they end up making a profit.

I agree with your perspective, the market is undecided about which direction to take and I think this could last for a very long time, after all the price cannot go down that much as the whales will buy any bitcoin available below the 40k level, but retail investors are scared to buy right now, so we will need some kind of external factor to break this deadlock and finally convince the market participants about the direction that the market will take during the next months.

It seems like Bitcoin price is not really moving but we can see that lots of them are buying and selling that's why the price continue to move up and down a little. We are all holding too long but that doesn't mean we should have to dump I still believe Bitcoin will try its best to get close at almost $70k.

Although, we will see a lot of bloodbath if we want to do that but whatever it's for the pump. Let's just wait a little and persevere because it seems like a bull trap to me, so there's a possibility of someone would be trying to dump though. I think $30k isn't being tested yet so I would like to really wait for more.

 There is this hesitation in the market and that is the main problem. People do not want to sell right now because it looks like it is going up, but people do not want to buy neither because it looks like it is failing to go further up. So people do not know what to do, mainly holding it and liquidity drops down after a while as well if you remove all the whales. This is the problem we are facing right now, we have no idea what to do. I am glad that I keep buying, that is a good thing for me in the long run even if it drops today, but the short term people and the traders are in a big pickle right now and its hard for them to make a decision.

It is going to be interesting to see what happens next, obviously I am happy about the recovery that we saw, but right now the price is struggling again to go up, so there is a high possibility that the price overcorrected when it went down and what we are seeing is nothing more but a few whales taking advantage of it to get some cheap coins while at the same time they do not really have any intention to try to push the price of bitcoin any higher.

When you look at the post above, some members didn't show the bullishness on bitcoin this year. However, in the last 2 days, the price seems to be skyrocketed as one thread says. And now we did go above $41k, a good indication that the bulls might be back in the market. Nevertheless, this might be just for short term spike though, the biggest picture is how the price will do at the end of the year to say that the bulls are back in the market.

Indeed bitcoin has experienced a very sharp decline in price in the last few months. But despite the bearish conditions across the crypto market at the moment, I believe that the bull market is not over yet. Currently, bitcoin and other crypto-assets are struggling to bounce off their current lows. Therefore, there is a possibility for an increase again before another correction occurs.

I do not think it was the pandemic directly which caused the price of bitcoin to go up but the consequences of it, the government began to print a lot of money in order to protect their economies due to the reduction in the productivity of the people as we were sent to our homes and the reduction in taxes that the government had to suffer, this brought inflation and then investors tried to find a way to protect themselves from those effects, and they found in bitcoin a good way to do this, which is what caused the growth that we saw during 2020 and 2021.

BTC continues to move rapidly, at present after achieving a low ever since it seems to have a strong trend upwards and as always BTC is far more rapid moving then most assets.   Price tends to spike into periods of positive action and sometimes the opposite but overall its clear that BTC vastly outperforms most normal markets in the range of its gains, this comes with much volatility so beware of relying on regular returns.

I am not so sure about that, after all we saw a massive amount of money being printed all over the world and without a doubt that helped bitcoin to grow in value so quickly, and while governments inflate fiat all the time this time around they really abused of that power due to the pandemic, after all institutional investors really began to be interested in bitcoin once the governments increased the rate of their printing machines and they we are looking for a store of value to endure the storm that was coming, so if anything I would say the pandemic was on average positive for bitcoin.

Pandemic have played a big role in the progress of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. During the pandemic market became more visible to the common people. Slowly people got much aware about it and started investing. This is where the change happened, if not we would've experienced a slower growth by now. There is more chance for a bear market until the halving, and this doesn't move deep down. The market will fluctuate and move within limits than reaching big.

"When will it happen " is a very good question and if anyone can answer that then traders will not have issues than to be making cool money from trading. Since we don't know or we are not optimistic about the direction of the market then it becomes a game of chance.

Spectacular returns are not over for bitcoin. I think the pandemic potentially made this bull run lighter than it otherwise would have been/ it’s fine, we will see over 150k in 2025 the next bull run after 2024 halving. Maybe it’s bearish years now but 2025 rise a lot.

I often hear discussions that the market is getting saturated and whales will not return to cryptocurrencies, maybe this is a negative issue that we usually hear but at least we will see again in 6 months, if bitcoin can't make new ATH again, of course we have to be vigilant.

Let's randomly pick some periods, right?
If you pick March 2020- April 2021 then you also have to look at the previous 13 months, so February 2019 and you will get a 1.2x, not even close to the 3x let's not even count 10x return. And in the other direction From April 2021 to May 2022 what we would need what for 10x, just $640k per coin, pretty achievable, right?

You put either a YOY or start of the year period and go from that trying to maximize the gains picking date will make other periods look far worse, at least use a monthly average scale.  Either way, the times of 3x and 10x a year are coming to an end, you simply can't have these anymore, not unless the $ turn to toilet paper, just imagine what two periods of 10x in 12 months would mean, a market cap of 68 trillion, where is that money going to come from?


If big whales would be buying the dip the price would have already skyrocketed past 40k, but since we haven't managed to bounce back over 40k it means one thing only, the number of coins so-called whales are buying is lower than the amount poeple are selling.  I doubt there are whales buying in that much, other than some isolated cases I think almost everyone that has plans on holding and is not interested in trading the swings is waiting on the side, probably they think that missing an opportunity is better than catching a knife, although I don't see why it should get way lower than this in the current situation.

Below 20K? It will need a major FUD for that to happened since the only for the price to go that low is when institutional investors already sell all there holdings. There is no way that retail investors will dump hard the price in the face the institutional investors. Below 20K price is a good price to enter but the main question is when will it happened.

$20,000 is not shit. That is even a much better price than years ago. That's still a good price for Bitcoin, even better to those who grumbled months ago that they missed the train. If they are really serious to get into Bitcoin, $20,000 is a perfect opportunity. That's going to be a blessing to them.

Big whales are buying the dip. But I hope that big whales are not the only ones who are buying the dip now. If that's the case, that's definitely a way for Bitcoin to change hands from small retail owners to rich institutions.

Bitcoin market value increase can never be like before again particularly when its value was $1 and it increase to its current market price and whoever is expecting that same exponential growth to happen from now on in my opinion is waisting his or her time. Remember that not many were able to hold from when its value was $1 till now, so people should not bother much of how much they might have made.

Personally I see this with good eyes, obviously those that want to become rich in a week are going to complain, but a bitcoin that is more mature will help everyone as people will be more willing to use it as a currency once its value does not move as much as it did in the past, this will also attract the investors that are not looking to multiply their money many times over in a bull cycle but instead are looking for something like 10% per year on average, or some other realistic amount of profits like that, which in turn will strengthen the market over the long term.

Just 3x increase? I mean we moved from under 4k during march 2020 to 64k during april 2021, how is that just x3? You may calculate from the previous top to latest top, in that case it is 3x, but that would mean previous ones were not 10x neither, they were smaller. I would guess that right now we are getting higher and higher, the market cap is growing and getting closer to global gold cap as well, imagine how big of a number we are talking about.

If you are considering something like this as normal then you will expect it to keep going 10x higher, but x10 from ATH would mean that we would be either bigger or at least somewhere near gold marketcap. That would be awesome but also a bit unrealistic for the time being.

So far, long-term bitcoin investments have provided spectacular returns for most of its investors. We never really know if bitcoin can hit $100 in the next 1-4 years but if we go back in history how bitcoin proved ATH $69K is achievable then I believe ATH $100K can happen in the future.

It's just a matter of time in my opinion. Bitcoin will be more useful in the future as a means of payment in various countries. Adoption is expected to continue to increase, but we should not be overly optimistic about anything that is not yet guaranteed.

The expectations of 20k dollars are hard for now. The market again get to the pump, so you need to wait for the further rise. Now the price is trying to back to 38k$.Holding is necessary one in the cryoto. The pump market and dump market should be used to get good profit. Profit was a main target for the trading.Pump is the main target for the margin traders. They will sell with the less profit many times a day.

The cycle that occurs in the bitcoin market is indeed changing every year, but compared to 2018 the current decline is actually very bad, even the bitcoin price is getting depressed by the negative sentiment that continues to attack now, it looks like bitcoin is currently experiencing a slight increase in the market, do you think bitcoin has returned to a bullish path or is it just a trap before reaching a deeper price correction?

I don't expect the $20K in this month or in few just waiting for the lowest low if we entered into bearish cycle. I saw that price again moved to mid $37K now so yes this is a small recovery from $33K region but can we consider this as recovery or just a dead cat bounce?

a correction is always part of the bitcoin cycle wherein after making all time high always expect as well that there will be a massive correction ahead before it continually making another progress.. "buy low and sell high".. That's what it is so don't be surprised after this current situation bitcoin will skyrocketed again. Infact last year bitcoin really achieved 2 consecutive all time high right? So obviously it getting stronger and for sure there will be more surprises within this year despite of some negative news and etc.

We might hit $38k at any moment right now, so $20k might not happen in this month.
And on the contrary, if we hit $40k then obviously we are moving further away from the lowest low of $20k as someone has predicted.

So just hold on, we are seeing a good recovery this week and if this is sustainable at $40k, I would say that the bulls are definitely back in the market and will probably push the price higher again. I'm not saying that we will go to a new all time high again because that will be too much as it will really look artificial, but at least we are in the road to recovery again.

This would be a helpful tool for dealing with it because there have been a lot of questions about it. Some people's mentality may never change, but we are passing a different phase. Can you anticipate what will happen next? We are now mature, the market is much more mature than before. Hopefully we won't touch that shit ever again.

Now that big whales are buying the dip, let's see if Bitcoin market can come back stronger as we hope it will.

Exactly, PlanB really put a lot of hype on bitcoin to go to $100k, last year, just saying.

And look at what happened right now, instead, the price goes on a nosedive. So for sure many are disappointed, but hopefully they can get back when the price sinks below $30k and then dream of that 6 digits again on the next bitcoin bullish cycle. So I believed that there is still good returns for bitcoin, but it might take years to make a huge returns.

The price right now is $37,000. That's too high for people to start thinking Bitcoin is going to zero. I don't think this is the same old dip in the past. When the price fell down from $20,000 to $3,000 in the past, people could think that was the end of Bitcoin, but when the price fell down from $69,000 to $37,000, I don't think it will have the same effect to them.

Do you have a certain timeframe within which the price of Bitcoin will finally hit $20,000?

Wait for it, I bet the price drop will happen because I have been in the situations when the price falls people whistles that this is the end of Bitcoin so it is going to zero means every investors sell immediately and atleast recover something but the same set of people whistles its going to 100K or million when its in bearish so I understand how people react do I am just going to be on their opposite which is the rich people's mindset. Yes, I understand the risk but I calculate the risk factors and go with my appetite only that is why I diversified my portfolio into gold and real estate as well which allows me to go hard st cryptocurrency investment.

If the price is to fall down all the way to $20,000 then let it happen. I would gladly wait for it and be happy that I get to be adding more while the price is down. But I doubt the price will go as low as that. It is a possibility but not likely happening. If it happens though, that would probably be just a quick dip. For sure a lot of Bitcoin investors will be buying a lot when the price touches $20,000. That would cause a quick rebound. That does not happen so often. It's an elusive opportunity.

We all wish where the market should go. If it benefits you when the price dips below $20K, throw a coin in the wishing well and hope it will come true. But don't give the credit to the leprechaun because the market does what it does.  It may not make everyone happy but saving what we have to turn into stablecoin is what we can only do.

Gold is a good investment but its inflation is just not good for someone who wants to make money in the short term. If I have to invest in gold, I'd rather have it physically and not commodity funds.

Many speculations happen as they say that bitcoin price will recover soon, bitcoin price will go down for more, but that still speculation which we do not know will happen or it will not happen. What happened today is similar to what we already saw a few years ago when bitcoin reached $20k as the ATH and then the price dropped drastically in the next year and got the lowest price. So it already happened again this time but still, we do not know how much the lowest price of bitcoin is later but this time, bitcoin has a good movement. Even if suddenly, bitcoin price reach $20k, that will be the best time for us to invest more as the next bull run can be higher than the last ATH.

Hey bro, I wanted it to come below 20K then I am going to make huge investment and HODL until the peak of next ATH and this is my next big plan upto 2025 since I already invested on GOLD recently next is going to make investment from the money I have also expect few of my closed on also waiting for the perfect moment to jump into the market.

Good for you, FED increasing rates will also pump the S&P.


I heard of Gareth Holoway predicted recently about this $20K drop actually. The guy I legendary when it comes to price forecast although he had said it months ago, it may come true one day when the bubble pops. If this bear market will be the same as what we experience in 2018, it may really drop below $20K. Hope it will not happen but there are just crises today that might affect everything like worsening the supply chain disruption and worse and worse coming war.

Bitcoin price already reached $65k+ previous year.I  believe  bitcoin price movement still correction. Bitcoin journey is long term for me actually most people journey start 2020-2021 but when bitcoin price was $400-$500 This time we had start journey. I hope bitcoin price will recover soon.Coz bitcoin is mots popular and most valuable coin.I hope bitcoin price will be more increase and it will be reach in $70k+ this year.

We already touched 65K right so that is somewhere in the region of the calculation so I consider it as the ATH and I expect the further price hike in the next cycle depends on lot of factors. Yesterday we saw another nose dive followed by 7% spike now again its in mid 36k but still I don't think its recovery I am waiting for the price to fall below, anything below 20K will be the good time for me to invest all the profits I made from the previous cycle.

Most of the people that started investing in 2021 only did it because they knew Bitcoin went from $1K to $20K about 4 years prior and they are expecting the same kind of returns.

So they take out a calculator and put $20K x 20 and are expecting a price of $400,000. So this is the reason why many retail didn’t take much profits before $100K hit. They all believed that planB guy on Twitter who said $100k was guaranteed in November and never took profits at $69K.

Same with people who bought ETH, they were expecting at least $10k and perhaps $5k and neither were hit.

Well yes of course returns will slow down. The larger an asset is the harder it is to move.

Bitcoin is out of its 'get-rich-quick' phase of pure retail speculation on a small cap asset and now it is establishing itself as a safe long term global store of value. Notice how most retail speculators have gone to the altcoin market. Between meme token lovers and Defi maxis they are all chasing the next pump and dump or the next dapp (which is likely also a pump and dump). Some will get lucky on those, most will lose money. But that's where the huge bursts of retail money go now - random crap. While smart money gradually keeps flowing into Bitcoin. But yeah it's not going to 20x in a year anymore. I'd say for the rest of this decade an average annual growth rate of 40%-50% for Bitcoin would be good and reasonable. And before you say that's no good, realize that would put Bitcoin at between about $700k and $1.2 million before 2030.

Bitcoin has simply transitioned from the get rich quick speculative gamble where a new influx of investors can easily drastically out invest all who were already there, to the safe fast wealth builder. The nice thing about this is crypto winters are probably gone. The days of sitting around for two years wondering if Bitcoin will come back up are over. The price is likely to appreciate every year barring some global economic catastrophe.

We're still in the early phase of adoption for Bitcoin, but we're no longer in the early everyone immediately gets rich in a single halving cycle phase.

Because it has never been easier.
Before you had to create a POW coin, get hashrate, get on exchanges, even with PoS the whole financing method for shitcoins was really hard.
Now we have tokens and token factories, you pay a few hundred $ and you have a token, the owners of the chain on which you based it are welcoming you as it needs more activity, with thousands of swaps suddenly it's easier to convert from other coins into you shitcoin and it's easier to get away with your scam. Basically right now everyone is helping a shitcoin to grow because it helps them grow, and nobody cares about what will happen longtime.


What really pissed me off on these get-rich stories is how people praise your investors who now make pics with tons of cash and cars, without realizing for them to get that they must have sold their stash and are now getting out.


Is he a model for bitcoiners? I hope not! For a lot of crypto holders he is!
But, nothing we can de, the madness will stop on its own just like every other, but of course with dire consequences for some.

I can't say that CMC and its statistics are a good or bad indicator, but it seems to me that maybe a little less than 1 year ago the number of cryptos listed was around 13 000, and today it has already exceeded 17 000 - maybe the memory deceives me, but I don't remember any such spectacular increases in the past. As we have already had the opportunity to discuss on this topic, it seems that every kid today wants to have his own cryptocurrency and get rich before he turns 18.

It has always been easy for people to sell all kinds of rubbish, especially if it is nicely packaged - today it has become even easier because people have become obviously even stupider than before. A kid who makes millions by selling his pictures (NTF) of himself sitting in front of a computer is more than good proof that this is the case.

Not to everyone.
Poeple are always looking at percentages rather than the value itself.
In your example, both are 100x, but for the first one the effort was 99 cents, and for the second $990 000, 1 million times more money was needed. If we go full pessimistic mode, and we analyze just the value without extrapolation, the results are completely different, it gained 40k from 2017, so it will gain another 40k in, better stop here because this is overbearish even for me.


Getting rich?
It's again a thing of debating what rich means, a life without caring in an expensive country? You will need a lot of money to invest even now, and poeple who afford that money for investment must be doing quite well themselves. Somebody with 100$ to spare, how could he get rich? Even if BTC hits 50million, he will have 100k, far from being rich even by 3rd world countries.

But there is one good thing if this mirage is dispelled, BTC strongpoints can come again in the spotlight, once the discussions about the price going up and down are done as nothing spectacular happens, poeple might talk how useful it is and how it can actually improve things and replace expensive or incomplete solutions.
Either way, that time will come, we can't go endlessly with just price speculation


Unfortunately, that's an unwanted consequence, and with the amount of money pumper have made to date these so-called projects will not cease for a long time, there is an influx of possible victims that is simply feeding these at insane levels. On the surface nothing new, there have been events like these in the past in different sectors, hundreds of goldrushes have happened but right now it's too damn easy to invest in these, there is no barrier, buying crypto is as easy as buying a pizza now and its the same for the ones creating the scam, one website, a bounty to spread the word, 100$ on a shiny WP and that's it.

It will end only when the number of poeple losing money will be a clear majority, but it's not really something to be thrilled of happening.

People are not satisfied with 2-3x anymore. They dont even happy with 10x. They want 100x or 1000x. Within a week. That's why lots of money flow into shittiest shitcoins and Bitcoin aint pumping anymore. Only on dumps, capital flows into Bitcoin but that does not make it pump.

I've seen people posting comparisons of the prices of bitcoin starting from 2011 to the present. In the past years, bitcoin's price multiplied more than it was during the bull run. As we have reached $69k, it's likely that it won't go more than 5x when we head for another cycle within the next few years. So, after this upcoming halving that's coming within the next 2 years, it's likely that we get 1.5x to 4x (probably maximum) IMHO.

I would say that's only half true. Bitcoin is still good for getting rich if you have patience and a long term plan. Or better said, to improve your economic situation. Getting rich will depend on how we define it, your starting situation, monthly/annual investment and time.

Bitcoin it's not good for is hitting the big bucks in a short time. That has gone to the alts.


Yeah but imagine buying any shitcoin at x price and selling at a loss some months after, which is what usually happens. Or maybe even being unable to sell it. For every one who hits the jackpot there are more than 90 who lose, and more with the thousands of shitcoin out there.

No the returns for Bitcoin aren’t going to make you rich anymore. Maybe $34K was the local bottom and we can go back to $70K or even $100K. How much profit is that? About 3x. And that’s only if you buy at the low and sell at the absolute high which is not realistic.

Gone are the days when people bought BTC at $100 or mined 50BTC blocks with their GPUs. So Bitcoin won’t make you rich anymore. This is why many people are putting money into NFTs, DeFI, Meme coins, Meta, etc.

Imagine buying doge at 1 penny and selling at 70 cents a few months later. Those are amazing profits. However those investments are extremely risky.

It is a fact that Bitcoin’s price multiplying tens of folds in just a few years is already a thing of the past. That’s not going to happen with Bitcoin reaching $40,000 or $60,000 or $80,000.

It is true that early adopters are both lucky and brave. They came across Bitcoin and obtained some at just the perfect time. Of course, Bitcoin would still double, triple, and even quadruple but it will take a longer time.

To those who are planning to get into Bitcoin, they should not compare what they’ve learned from it’s price history and the situation of Bitcoin today. They should set longer terms in today’s situation. There is no way they could get rich overnight at this phase of Bitcoin’s growth.

But all this doesn’t mean Bitcoin has lost its bullish growth. Bitcoin couldn’t be more bullish. It’s simply that it is easier for $0.01 to grow to $1 than $60,000 to grow to $150,000.

Definitely expect calmer seas in the upcoming months/years.

As anticipated, this bull market run didn't have as much % ROI as previous ones just because of the fact that BTC market cap is already so mature.

Same trend will continue to happen even past this bear market. Obviously expect huge dumps this bear market and for the $20k support to be tested, but apart from that future bull markets should also be relatively tamed compared to the current one.

I think it would be natural to consider it? Considering the difference in the value of $1 and $1M and the possible growth difference between the two, well, It isn't that odd to consider it. I myself had considered investing in Bitcoin sometimes since even if I did invest, at most, I'd probably get thrice to 4 times the value of my investment, unlike way back then. Well, that was a "had" moment, still invested and went on with my life. It's still a return of investment and honestly, I have far less risk than those who invested back then, why would I complain still?

I also believe this is the case, but as long as Bitcoin is going up and not down, it's fine in my book. Plus, if you have been amassing coins for a long time, you probably have more than one coin, so that's hundreds of thousands of dollars in gains per cycle, which is pretty good. Also, the slow down of Bitcoin growth is a good opportunity to diversify into traditional investments, like stocks and real estate.

Maybe some beginners like to live in delusion, but I guess most are clear that they can't expect Bitcoin to bring them x20 or x50 in the next 10 or even 20 years. What I don't like is that these facts will really help all those altcoins that promise spectacular profits, and from my personal experience, a lot of small investors are looking for their profit in altcoins. Personal freedom is a matter for each individual, who we are to tell people what to do with their money - but they need to know the risks, as well as that without the success of Bitcoin, the whole crypto market cannot function.

It is easy for me to say that this situation does not affect me because I have experienced much worse, but I can very easily put myself in the position of those who have invested in Bitcoin in the past 6 months, and now nothing is clear to them.

Confused looks and just one question heard everywhere "But sir, shouldn't Bitcoin be worth at least $100k, what about PlanB?"

Its not pessimistic mate. This is an optimistic scenario because it assumes further growth and development of bitcoin. We could expect spectacular returns only after a dump from current $35k back to 3k$. Only this will give us space for "spectacular returns". But if we take optimistic scenario and further growth and development of bitcoin I expect bitcoin to stabilize in about 5-10 years and outperform gold x2 in next 20 years. So if gold yell around 10% annulaly on average - "Between January 1971 and December 2019, gold had average annual returns of 10.61 percent," I expect bitcoin to do around 20% annually on average which gives us 2 mln $ price target after 20 years.

There is a very popular chart that also proves your point:


https://forum.orgones.co.uk/t/bitcoin-price-may-be-following-a-square-root-function-of-the-logarithmic-chart/4649

I think that everyone has seen it before. Shows that possible gains are slowing down. Chart shows possible x3 in 4 years on this chart from 100k to 300k. Instead of x20 from 2013 ATH to 2017 ATH (also 4 years)

If we check the demand, supply and the limited supply of bitcoin which is 21 million bitcoin, it is true that people that invested at early stage are the ones that have most gain. When bitcoin was at $1, only little amount of money was required to increase the price bitcoin to $2, the more bitcoin is known and people buying it, the price rose but the money to make its price to double are getting higher.

When bitcoin was at young age, only few people will be involved to multiply its price by 2 because only little marketcap is needed, comparing it with this time, more people are involved, the market can not be manipulated this time unlike before and more people are needed to make the price volatile only few needed in the past.

All I have been saying is that it is true that for the price of bitcoin, It can not increase as much as before, but this is helping to lessen volatile also. This is called maturation, bitcoin is getting matue. More rich people may later because of this invest in bitcoin.

But if bitcoin do not that increasing like before after many adoption, remember that it will help against the inflation that makes fiat value to be reducing, if paired with fiat, it will be the winner.

Of course the returns are going to get lower and lower. I mean, at some point it will be totally be unrealistic to expect quick multipliers like what we've had.

But really, it really isn't totally a bad thing. Bitcoin had bigger multipliers in the past simply because it was far more risky back then; with far less products, far less actually-savvy investor holders, or just adoption in general. A lot of people think that lower price automatically means lower risk, but that's definitely not the case with bitcoin and some assets.

In summary: Bitcoin is highly likely to have less multipliers as mcap goes up, but with less risk. Pretty much like bitcoin moved from being a micro cap stock to a blue chip. Still one of the best r/r asset investments in my book.

I think this will have to be considered. Especially if we don't break $70K in this cycle, which would be only 3.5x the ath of the previous cycle.

Call me pessimistic if you want, but being as we are, with institutional adoption, starting state adoption in some cases, Bitcoins leaving the exchanges for a long time, hashrate at maximums, everyone with bullish predictions for last year, even former Bitcoin haters reconverted, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

What is clear is that it is easier for something worth $0.01 to become worth $1 than for something worth $10K to become worth $1M.

Thus, maybe the most we can expect for future cycles is a tripling of the previous ath. Maybe quadruple in some given cycle. But not to multiply the previous ath by 20 or more.

On a personal level, nothing changes for me. I have been doing DCA for years with the S&P 500 and I've been through similar bumps, if the price goes down, you keep buying and forget about it, just like if it goes up a lot. So I will continue to do the same both with the S&P and Bitcoin.

What I do think needs to be considered, especially if the price does not recover this year, are more realistic return forecasts for the future.

Edit: update from June 19, 2022 after Bitcoin price broke down to $18K.