Topic: Are the 30k btc coins already priced in? (Read 1208 times)

There is not a flying phucking chance, will these coins go for anything like above the exchange spot price, whatever it should be come the time of the auctions. To think otherwise is phucking delusional to the extreme......in otherwords, par for the course around here.....

30k btc coins is not already priced in !!!

if Bitpay, Second Market (or any other big player) want to promote Bitcoin then he will make at least $1,000 USD bid.

Buying FED GOV BTC at double price (... great news) will make market insane.  

tl;dr
if I had $30 M USD then I'd buy them all. And I'm sure price will double(2x $1,000) in next week.

Would be great if the price would crash to $0.10 for the period when the FBI sell the coins, those suckers (government) should get no cent out of this. And then it can hit back to 600. I´m fine with that 

I'd say above market price would be good wild.
Under market would lead to a flash crash.
Market price would be extremely boring.

Perhaps.

But having just taken a look at the swap rates on Bitfinex. To unlock 1 million USD worth, leveraged long traders will pay 0.5% interest per day. Those sort of rates are just not tenable. Once a market starts to rely on debt to uphold it's price, then it get's addicted to debt. Without a supply of cheap debt, then this market cannot take-off from here. As far as USD volume goes, Bitfinex is now market leader. Bitcoin needs Bitfinex to start buying in order to take off. Bitfinex can't buy if the swap rate is 0.5% per day.

It is clear to see how the market has risen in line with the initially low swap rates followed by the surge on USD swap volume on Bitfinex. It is also clear to see how the swap volume kept growing and growing only in order to keep Bitcoin up in its upper $600 consolidating range as whales continued to sell into the leverage long traders.

We have bullish divergence on the 4hr RSI, crossoever of the 4Hr MacD, but I say that Bitcoin cannot go a whole lot higher until there is either an injection of cheap credit onto Bitfinex and/or the market unwinds down further, freeing up adequate cheap credit for leveraged long traders to take advantage off......unless the whales on Stamp have other ideas, but is from Stamp that all the selling pressure has come and who is to say that the entity behind that selling pressure don't want Bitcoin further suppressed?  
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Why would they get a significant discount?? if the government had wanted to get those bitcoins dumped at one exchange they had already done that by theirselves, obviously the buyers will be assets / financial companies who wants to buy high amounts of bitcoins but dint want to do it by depositing seven figures at random exchanges.

well, i think the "news" of the 30k is priced in. but the wild card is the bidders that register and whether they get a discount or premium. if they get a significant discount, we could see some dumping on exchanges -- why not?

the price will be mostly around the market, and the buyers will hold that coins for long time, dont expect them to be selling

I'll wager they won't unless you try the freedom of information thing. There's zero reason for the vendors to publicise it. Same goes for the buyers most likely.

so you are saying "it could get wild" ?

Will the results become public?

Overly priced in. After the auction (and the results are public) I think the price will be higher than it is today.

Yeah it's not like if those coins are on sale, individual buyers (Majority) will stop buying on exchange sites, neither some rich guys will buy them and start selling them on exchange sites. Govt is also selling them in chunks of 3k coins.. But yeah I think pump/dump guys will surely take some advantage and will try to manipulate market again.

So it may dip little bit more but it will go back to 600+ range again in next month.

alot depends on how it goes

if we see 30K bitcoin trade above market... and how much above market? things could get wild

if we see 30K bitcoin trade below market... and how much below market? things could get wild

if we see 30K bitcoin trade pretty much at market, things could get wild

in conclusion, things could get wild!

 

It's likely it'll be used to scare a few weeds out of handing their coins over right up until the day itself. You may as well work the opportunity while you can even though the auction isn't public and the coins will probably end up in safe pairs of hands.

When the news came out that 30k would be auctioned, the price dipped (640 ish to sub 600)

Now this seems like a good stable level for a while (sub 570). At the end of the month when the sale is supposed to take place will the price dip a little more and then back up? (this is my guess).


Thought appreciated.

edit: in response to first comment. I agree with your last sentence. The buyer would probably be second market or some pro bitcoin company that would use it to possibly fund future bitcoin ventures.
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(responding w/out bumping my thread)

to adam. I feel the actual selling would not do much (I think its already priced in except maybe a slight dip), but I agree that anything could happen (partly why I made this post to see what everyone else was thinking).

to escrow.ms. I agree that there might be some manipulation but probably won't do too much damage. I agree with your last sentence (same thought process).