Are the next generation asics (under 28nm) on the horizon already?

SMB-2525

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Quote from: Mabsark on August 20, 2014, 09:38:04 PM

If the supply of new bitcoins is halved shouldn't the price increase to reflect that?

There is no causal relationship between mining and the price of BTC. BTC price impacts mining return, mining return does not impact BTC price.

BTC has no intrinsic demand - there are plenty of easy substitutes.
BTC is treated as a store of value like gems. Gold and silver have a intrinsic value far less than their current price.
BTC has currency like features because its authenticity is easily validated and there is an exchange rate. Gold and silver coins are similar. Gems less so.

Mabsark

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Quote from: SMB-2525 on August 20, 2014, 06:53:21 PM

The problem with the next generation of chips is the rapidly declining benefit to mining. They will come on line in production quantities and will see the next halving during the projected useful life.

If the supply of new bitcoins is halved shouldn't the price increase to reflect that?

Quote from: cloverme on August 20, 2014, 07:40:33 PM

Agreed, this model of selling hardware to consumers cannot continue for long. You're lucky if you can obtain a ROI within a few months, as difficulty skyrockets, power requirements for the miners go up (not down), and the price of electricity always haunting you, there's little room for profits now. The hardware manufacturers act like they do us a favor when they pre-mine on hardware that we paid for, ship late, and then act put out when we start asking questions. Frustrating to be a miner these days...

That's why you shouldn't pre-order.

cloverme

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SpacePirate.io

Quote from: SMB-2525 on August 20, 2014, 06:53:21 PM

The problem with the next generation of chips is the rapidly declining benefit to mining. They will come on line in production quantities and will see the next halving during the projected useful life.

Agreed, this model of selling hardware to consumers cannot continue for long. You're lucky if you can obtain a ROI within a few months, as difficulty skyrockets, power requirements for the miners go up (not down), and the price of electricity always haunting you, there's little room for profits now. The hardware manufacturers act like they do us a favor when they pre-mine on hardware that we paid for, ship late, and then act put out when we start asking questions. Frustrating to be a miner these days...

SMB-2525

full member

Activity: 195

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The problem with the next generation of chips is the rapidly declining benefit to mining. They will come on line in production quantities and will see the next halving during the projected useful life.

Mabsark

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It's always a possibility. Intel have 14nm up and running and are open to clients using their fabs so I guess it's just a matter of money really.

Most ASIC manufacturers will be on 28nm by 2015. KnC are already on 20nm and I expect most to transition to 20nm in 2015 but the volume will be low though due to the competition for chip production. Basically, the bitcoin manufacturers will be fighting for the scraps.

Look at ASICMiner for example. The chips they've just brought out are 40nm and they'll be transitioning to 28nm around the end of the year. It stands to reason that they'll transition to 20nm sometime in 2015. A lot of companies already have 28nm miners on the market, so it also stands to reason that they'll transition to 20nm too. Like I said though, there's going to be a lot of competition for chip production. Hopefully bitcoin manufacturers can be squeezed in.

CryptoPanda

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Quote from: Mabsark on August 19, 2014, 03:07:40 PM

If any BTC ASIC manufacturers will be able to get in early on 16nm it'll only be for low volume orders. They'll be competing with AMD, Nvidia and all the ARM manufacturers.

So, do you think it's not realistic to expect them in 2015?

Mabsark

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If any BTC ASIC manufacturers will be able to get in early on 16nm it'll only be for low volume orders. They'll be competing with AMD, Nvidia and all the ARM manufacturers.

CryptoPanda

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Quote from: RoadStress on August 19, 2014, 06:48:23 AM

Quote from: CryptoPanda on August 19, 2014, 05:38:39 AM

Anyone reliable building something at 20nm or so?

Yes. KnC!

Quote

Is anything less than that realistic to expect in the next couple years actually?

Yes. I'm waiting for 16nm in 2015.

cool! Is any of the manufacturers already making claims about the 16nm process?

RoadStress

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Quote from: CryptoPanda on August 19, 2014, 05:38:39 AM

Anyone reliable building something at 20nm or so?

Yes. KnC!

Quote

Is anything less than that realistic to expect in the next couple years actually?

Yes. I'm waiting for 16nm in 2015.

CryptoPanda

sr. member

Activity: 910

Merit: 302

Anyone reliable building something at 20nm or so?
Is anything less than that realistic to expect in the next couple years actually?

Topic: Are the next generation asics (under 28nm) on the horizon already? (Read 1601 times)