Bitcoin since touched $5800-6000 area has not really clear to many if we are in bull market or it just a mere run to make noobs or newbies FOMO, and looking at it TA which shows it has not been on same lane even with FA but many says it's manipulation and crossing $5800 area below has been a major support but many think it should break it, so am wondering if we are getting close to bull market or we are just in swing market for now.
First of all, a bull run and bull trap isn't really mutually exclusive. Usually, a bull trap is opposed to a legitimate recovery, leading to a bull market.
If we go by these definitions, then I definitely don't see this rally going beyond $8-9k, because of the resistance that was seen through the last few attempts at breaking out. Referring back to the 2014 bear market, we can also see that it took the market around one and a half years before it was actually nearing recovery, a timeframe which I think is going to be approximately the same for the recovery this time as well.
The bearishness within the market is very unlikely to be reversed just by this small pump with no real apparent reason behind it. IMHO, we'll see further dips and corrections throughout the rest of the year, before we see any major recovery within the markets.
I usually consider three types of markets: bull markets, bear markets and sideways/range markets. Outside of the context of bubbles, markets range most of the time.
In that sense, one of the scenarios I'm leading towards is a range market. This is probably a bull trap in that we aren't entering a bull market yet, and there will probably be quite some time before we escape the negative sentiment. But I also wouldn't be surprised if the brunt of the bear market is over, and we don't see new lows in the $5,000s. Time will tell.
If we break $8,500 that's the first higher high since the crash. That
could be the beginning of an uptrend.
