Topic: Are we starting a bull run? (Read 6223 times)
I think the price will be substantially higher by the end of the year. There has been a lot of talk of big wall street money flowing in and I do think that will happen starting in September at the latest.
There has been a lot of time out with a lot of infrastructure, marketing, education going on. I think that's all good but I feel that it is coming to an end now. I also think a log of people have been clinging on to MT Gox in the hope of getting coins back. Once that's put behind us then we can move on from that and concentrate on what comes next.
I do agree with those that said people are waiting to enter the market. Bad news attract attention, people gets curious and enter the market. Even if one out of 100 get past the bad news, the market effect will be huge.
Today's movement suggests that we are, not sure if there is something in the works behind the scenes or if everyone has finally agreed that price has definitely bottomed out and now is a good time to jump aboard. Either way...hold on for the ride!
I think it's turning around. I see a strong correlation between Google Trends and the USD price. Check out
http://cryptocoinstats.com/interesttracker.php
for more. I checked Google Trends today and it looks like Bitcoin searches for May will be higher in April. I think that's a good sign that things will be turning around.
http://cryptocoinstats.com/interesttracker.php
for more. I checked Google Trends today and it looks like Bitcoin searches for May will be higher in April. I think that's a good sign that things will be turning around.
^^^^^^
that is some cool data 
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
Hahahahahahahaha.
What were you saying?
PS I really love the fact that you already went and edited the bolded sentence out of your post. Too bad others quoted you.
Well he is winning at getting his EW analysis wrong as many consecutive times as possible.
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
Hahahahahahahaha.
What were you saying?
PS I really love the fact that you already went and edited the bolded sentence out of your post. Too bad others quoted you.
This is where I point out that crypt does not really do TA tooo well ..
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
That is the sort of thing that I liked to think back when I was too lazy to learn about TA. Since I have learned a bit about TA, I don't think that any more.
Zoom out to the bigger picture and Bitcoin does TA fantastically well and there are plenty good analysts out there who are calling Bitcoin every bit as good as they call Forex, the Dow, Gold, etc.
IMO bitcoin has been easier to trade with TA than any other market. The major uptrends have been solid, staying within channels with very little retesting and emcompassing an order of magnitude or more. The initial crashes have typically been solid with typical dead cats. Of course this will not continue and may have already ended but I'm betting we will see at least one more solid, shorter term pattern encompassing an order of magnitude or more.
This is where I point out that crypt does not really do TA tooo well ..
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
That is the sort of thing that I liked to think back when I was too lazy to learn about TA. Since I have learned a bit about TA, I don't think that any more.
Zoom out to the bigger picture and Bitcoin does TA fantastically well and there are plenty good analysts out there who are calling Bitcoin every bit as good as they call Forex, the Dow, Gold, etc.
...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh
oh well ..you reap what you sow
oh well ..you reap what you sow
m8. I have no position in Bitcoin at the moment. I have banned myself from shorting or using leverage, otherwise I would have shorted at $520, which was my last 'official' call.....yeah, it went up as high as $548...would my nerve have held out after my last 'market chasing' short trade? Possibly not (which is why I have banned myself from touching leverage/shorting).
Thus, I have restricted myself to only trading long with 'physical' Bitcoin. So I am waiting on a long opportunity to present itself. Recent Bitcoin dreams I had pointed to longer periods and greater amounts of upside than downside. I have short/medium term bullish tingles in my groin, but I am being precautious. This is a vicious market and false sucker break-outs are par for the course. Practically before every brutal correction, there has been a low volume break-out of some description that would lure the overly bullish into a very bad investment. I have just had the most horrible trade of my life, if waiting for $30 worth of market action b4 taking a long lowers my risk of repeating such a horrible trade, then that is what I am going to do. Will let some other suckers jump in and take the first $20-$30 of the upside.
For me to go long, I am waiting on lesser log wave 4 trendline being breached. That presently means prices of around $475. Failing that, I would suggest that I have seen such a low volume trickle over a linear trendline many times b4 with Bitcoin which has very often been followed by a brutal correction. For example, I find it quite concerning how the price has been rising from $420 yet the volume decreasing over the past few days. May just be a blip. But if the textbook is applied, that is a very bearish signal.
This is where I point out that crypt does not really do TA tooo well ..
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh
oh well ..you reap what you sow
oh well ..you reap what you sow
m8. I have no position in Bitcoin at the moment. I have banned myself from shorting or using leverage, otherwise I would have shorted at $520, which was my last 'official' call.....yeah, it went up as high as $548...would my nerve have held out after my last 'market chasing' short trade? Possibly not (which is why I have banned myself from touching leverage/shorting).
Thus, I have restricted myself to only trading long with 'physical' Bitcoin. So I am waiting on a long opportunity to present itself. Recent Bitcoin dreams I had pointed to longer periods and greater amounts of upside than downside. I have short/medium term bullish tingles in my groin, but I am being precautious. This is a vicious market and false sucker break-outs are par for the course. Practically before every brutal correction, there has been a low volume break-out of some description that would lure the overly bullish into a very bad investment. I have just had the most horrible trade of my life, if waiting for $30 worth of market action b4 taking a long lowers my risk of repeating such a horrible trade, then that is what I am going to do. Will let some other suckers jump in and take the first $20-$30 of the upside.
For me to go long, I am waiting on lesser log wave 4 trendline being breached. That presently means prices of around $475. Failing that, I would suggest that I have seen such a low volume trickle over a linear trendline many times b4 with Bitcoin which has very often been followed by a brutal correction. For example, I find it quite concerning how the price has been rising from $420 yet the volume decreasing over the past few days. May just be a blip. But if the textbook is applied, that is a very bearish signal.
You are in so much denial ...its a joke
Can only see your own imposed view point
I suspect you have absolutely no fkn clue what I am even referring to. I am referring not to my own TA, but DanV's. DanV is the nasty Indian chap who, when Bitcoin was rebounding from first China ban crash and absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself), said that according to his EW analysis, the $450 low (he was using Gox as his chart) would be retested. That was on 5th Jan, with Bitcoin charging up past $1000 on Gox. To balance the scales, he was also expecting Bitcoin to go higher than it did but did state that the potential highs on that move were limited.
DanV has established two long term trendlines on his log scale Bitcoin graph. One runs from $995, $710, $548, and is currently sitting around $470. The other, the one which would need to be breached in order for DanV's wave 4 trendline to be confirmed as completed, runs from $1160, $995, and is currently hovering around $590. Now, should Bitcoin get up to, breach and show signs of holding above the trendline at $470, then I shall definitely be looking at a long trade as even if I doubt that the wave 4 has yet completed, there is still a lot of upside between the lower and upper trendlines.
So what the fk is this about my own imposed viewpoint? And if I can only see someone else's imposed viewpoint, who am I going to listen to.
DanV, with a track record of calling future market action to an impeccable standard.....
....or......
'Yip Yip' the forum Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchant?
...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh
oh well ..you reap what you sow
You are in so much denial ...its a joke
Can only see your own imposed view point
I suspect you have absolutely no fkn clue what I am even referring to. I am referring not to my own TA, but DanV's. DanV is the nasty Indian chap who, when Bitcoin was rebounding from first China ban crash and absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself), said that according to his EW analysis, the $450 low (he was using Gox as his chart) would be retested. That was on 5th Jan, with Bitcoin charging up past $1000 on Gox. To balance the scales, he was also expecting Bitcoin to go higher than it did but did state that the potential highs on that move were limited.
DanV has established two long term trendlines on his log scale Bitcoin graph. One runs from $995, $710, $548, and is currently sitting around $470. The other, the one which would need to be breached in order for DanV's wave 4 trendline to be confirmed as completed, runs from $1160, $995, and is currently hovering around $590. Now, should Bitcoin get up to, breach and show signs of holding above the trendline at $470, then I shall definitely be looking at a long trade as even if I doubt that the wave 4 has yet completed, there is still a lot of upside between the lower and upper trendlines.
So what the fk is this about my own imposed viewpoint? And if I can only see someone else's imposed viewpoint, who am I going to listen to.
DanV, with a track record of calling future market action to an impeccable standard.....
....or......
'Yip Yip' the forum Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchant?
we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.
I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.
You are in so much denial ...its a joke
Can only see your own imposed view point
we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.
I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.
thats entirely speculation. many would argue we havent even reversed down.
when you were saying sell, you had no better reason for it than the price was too high and you didnt like it. At that point we were at a juncture, after completing an ABC, C being impulsive, and we were going up, rather impulsively. I told you that i could see further down side was possible but I held until I could see that for sure, and then I made great deal shorting from cerca 750. Mind you I called the mt gox bottom and the 339 bottom.
I think Bitpay's tweet today is going to help launch this bull run nicely. 
https://twitter.com/BitPay/status/465206481474686976
https://twitter.com/BitPay/status/465206481474686976
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average.
No that's linear regression calculated for each day.
Please read about TA online.
And i was mentionning the resistance trendlineS.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
interesting, all the scamcoins, including dogecoin and EVEN litecoin rapidly go down, both in expected and actual value.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average.
No that's linear regression calculated for each day.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
I don t know if i should answer that? Is that kind of a joke?
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.
I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.
we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
From an EW analysts point of view, a trendline only needs to have two points of coincidence providing those two points are the start of Wave 1, and the retracement of Wave 2 in order to remain valid for the cycle. The EW cycle is considered finished only when the trendline is breached. As for the argument of log scale v linear scale, being a noob myself, I don't really know for sure which applies best, but it seems that any serious analyst uses log scale for measuring long time periods and/or massive changes in value. After all, Bitcoin going up from $5 to $10 means the same to someone invested in it as Bitcoin going from $500-$1000. Also, draw the line of your lesser wedge on the log scale starting from $995, and you will find that the post crash bounces to $710, and to $548, have played this lesser EW cycle trendline like a dream. Seems that the log scale trendline is hitting the exuberant excesses of the market bang on the head, whereas the linear scale just isn't. Afterall, we have already had a couple of break outs on two fairly 'significant' linear scale trendlines yet 'nothing happens'. I would suggest that one should indeed be using log scale when analysing the bigger picture in Bitcoin.
It will be interesting to see. The 10th is tomorrow. Either we break higher towards 3000 or this thing starts to reverse down again.
Whenever do the infamous dates actually coincide with significant market action?
It's more like a bull walk.
or catwalk
bitcoin has all the time in the world. it will suffer from erectile dysfunction until the last bear has been trapped. our bear population is quite resilient, though. It's more like a bull walk.
Its funny. Visually, when I looked at the chart I originally thought there was a much stronger impulse up on Houbi from this most recent low at 2559 than there was from the one before it at 2555. So I assumed this one would go higher and potentially break 2867.5.
But then I counted the bars and realized that in fact this movement up has taken longer and seems to have slightly less momentum forward. So, now I am not so sure that this move up is going to breach 2867.5 or even 2859.6 - the most recent high.
It will be interesting to see. The 10th is tomorrow. Either we break higher towards 3000 or this thing starts to reverse down again.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
It's more like a bull walk.
Desperation hasn't even settled in...
greed has set in.... everyone wants cheap coins.
Desperation hasn't even settled in...
sure, we are starting a bull run.. it wont go any back to 400
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
LOL!
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
I could fill your sell orders up 100 times. Not sure why you seem so proud of that.
What bet are you talking about? The one with you that you didn't take that I would have won or the one with Rptelia that he didnt take that I would have won? It gets confusing.
I think it's turning around. I see a strong correlation between Google Trends and the USD price. Check out
http://cryptocoinstats.com/interesttracker.php
for more. I checked Google Trends today and it looks like Bitcoin searches for May will be higher in April. I think that's a good sign that things will be turning around.
http://cryptocoinstats.com/interesttracker.php
for more. I checked Google Trends today and it looks like Bitcoin searches for May will be higher in April. I think that's a good sign that things will be turning around.
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
I dont see your argument why 'short term' if up, long term if down. not consistent. a wedge is a wedge, it can go up or down.
I have seen his charts, I know his position. he admits that he is ignorant of the fundamentals too. the fifth wave that is coming could take out 10k even if it is not a blow out fifth wave. we will break new highs. the analysis that I believe he is wrong about it the descesding impulse down to 266. Wave C has clearly terminated. it was an impulse and it has no steam left. this count is about to be invalidated.
I have seen his charts, I know his position. he admits that he is ignorant of the fundamentals too. the fifth wave that is coming could take out 10k even if it is not a blow out fifth wave. we will break new highs. the analysis that I believe he is wrong about it the descesding impulse down to 266. Wave C has clearly terminated. it was an impulse and it has no steam left. this count is about to be invalidated.
That isn't quite what I was saying but not to bother.
I have seen his charts, and the extensive videos he has posted on YouTube, and know his position.
You speak of a wedge.
Here is a screenshot I posted in another thread. Highlighted in Blue are the two long term trendlines that are coming into play. Left in the vanilla white of Bitcoinwisdom, is the upper resistance trendline of your wedge:
So the situation is as follows.
If Bitcoin rises $30, it takes out a resistance trend that has been with us since 6th Jan 2014.
If Bitcoin falls $30, it breaches a support trend that has been with us since 6th Jan 2013.
hmmm.
If Bitcoin rises $150, it takes out the resistance trend that has been in place since Dec 17 2013, with no further EW resistance trendlines above it.
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
I am with you on the lesser resitance line of the first wedge. If Bitcoin goes above here and holds, I will be looking at a tentative long punt. But would this prove to me that the low is in?Erm....No.
Its bull run from today onwards. Reason is because there is no more people in china holding BTC!!!! (maybe but really little). So its to the moon!!!
follow the fractals, and you will see this is not going to his plan. we should be going down right now. instead we are loser to breaking up out of the wedge on huobi than breaking down. his analysis is resting on a $30 move. dont put too much faith in it. there are alternative counts that are playing out better right now.
I don't think you have been following what he has said fully. If you had, you would know that we are some $150 away from the resistance trendline which would have to be breached to confirm DanV's Wave 4 has bottomed at $340. On the otherhand, we are a $30 move away from breaching the long term support trendline, which if Bitcoin holds above, would establish a strong short-term bullish case, but if it falls below, then we are looking at the large cycle support line currently hovering at $100 (which isn't to say that Bitcoin will go to $100).
DanV's position isn't so much that Bitcoin is headed into the ground from here, but that if there is a break-out above these trendlines, then Bitcoin isn't going 2 da moon. It may take out the ATH by a small margin, it fall a bit short. The crux of his argument is that we are somewhere in Wave 4 territory, and that Wave 5 can never have the strength of a Wave 3 (i.e. Bitcoin aint going to da moon anytime soon).
I dont see your argument why 'short term' if up, long term if down. not consistent. a wedge is a wedge, it can go up or down.
I have seen his charts, I know his position. he admits that he is ignorant of the fundamentals too. the fifth wave that is coming could take out 10k even if it is not a blow out fifth wave. we will break new highs. the analysis that I believe he is wrong about it the descesding impulse down to 266. Wave C has clearly terminated. it was an impulse and it has no steam left. this count is about to be invalidated.
follow the fractals, and you will see this is not going to his plan. we should be going down right now. instead we are loser to breaking up out of the wedge on huobi than breaking down. his analysis is resting on a $30 move. dont put too much faith in it. there are alternative counts that are playing out better right now.
I don't think you have been following what he has said fully. If you had, you would know that we are some $150 away from the resistance trendline which would have to be breached to confirm DanV's Wave 4 has bottomed at $340. On the otherhand, we are a $30 move away from breaching the long term support trendline, which if Bitcoin holds above, would establish a strong short-term bullish case, but if it falls below, then we are then looking down at DanV's large cycle support line currently hovering at $100 (which isn't to say that Bitcoin will go to $100).
DanV's position isn't so much that Bitcoin is headed into the ground from here, but that if there is a break-out above these trendlines, then Bitcoin isn't going 2 da moon. It may take out the ATH by a small margin, it fall a bit short. The crux of his argument is that we are somewhere in Wave 4 territory, and that Wave 5 can never have the strength of a Wave 3 (i.e. Bitcoin aint going to da moon anytime soon).
DanVs analysis is breaking up as we speak. wave C is likely complete. the IV wave does not need to bottom within the price range of wave iv, but it tends to bottom above the price low of wave IV ($50). Indicators are diverging to bullish favour within the scale of the correction. clear H&S forming, and we have made a strong base on top of the lower wedge trendline. Bullish EW counts have been playing out accurately assuming the 339 low was followed by a primary.
Erm, no it isn't and we are much closer to breaking the support trend (currently $425) than the resistance trend (currently $595).
Should the market avoid breaching the extended cycle support trendline, and breach the resistance trendline that has been with us since $995 in early Jan 2014, then I shall certainly look to take a tentative long position. Currently, the minor resistance trendline is at $480, but if it is going to breach, I imagine that it will occur around the $460-$470 mark. For DanV's Wave 4 to be proven to have bottomed at $340 (which he isn't ruling out by the way), Bitcoin is going to have to get up over $580, providing this thing is to play out within the next few weeks...it might not.....market might stagnate for months...not like it hasn't done that before.
follow the fractals, and you will see this is not going to his plan. we should be going down right now. instead we are loser to breaking up out of the wedge on huobi than breaking down. his analysis is resting on a $30 move. dont put too much faith in it. there are alternative counts that are playing out better right now.
DanVs analysis is breaking up as we speak. wave C is likely complete. the IV wave does not need to bottom within the price range of wave iv, but it tends to bottom above the price low of wave IV ($50). Indicators are diverging to bullish favour within the scale of the correction. clear H&S forming, and we have made a strong base on top of the lower wedge trendline. Bullish EW counts have been playing out accurately assuming the 339 low was followed by a primary.
Erm, no it isn't and we are much closer to breaking the support trend (currently $425) than the resistance trend (currently $595).
Should the market avoid breaching the extended cycle support trendline, and breach the resistance trendline that has been with us since $995 in early Jan 2014, then I shall certainly look to take a tentative long position. Currently, the minor resistance trendline is at $480, but if it is going to breach, I imagine that it will occur around the $460-$470 mark. For DanV's Wave 4 to be proven to have bottomed at $340 (which he isn't ruling out by the way), Bitcoin is going to have to get up over $580, providing this thing is to play out within the next few weeks...it might not.....market might stagnate for months...not like it hasn't done that before.
Not just ema; everything on the weekly chart is different from 2013. All the indicators. Everything is diverged and disjoined. So I don't see why there would automatically be any similarity.
There is also a very strong argument for Bitcoin Being on a grand cycle Wave 4 EW retracement. With Wave 3 starting at around $5 in May 2012, and terminating at $1160 in Dec 2013, as per DanV (if anyone hasn't seen his charts/videos I suggest they give his name a google). If this were to pan out, then a 62% (textbook wave 4 retracement ratio) retracement would equate with an ultimate bottom price of around $260, which is of course the price of the April 2013 high. It would all be textbook stuff if it pans out this way and from the short time I have been learning TA and watching Bitcoin, Bitcoin does tend to adhere to textbook TA principles. Granted, zoom in to the short term charts and try to start applying these TA principles there and expect to get chopped about like crazy. But over the bigger picture, Bitcoin likes to tick all the TA 101 boxes.
Don't say it doesn't, cos it does.
DanVs analysis is breaking up as we speak. wave C is likely complete. the IV wave does not need to bottom within the price range of wave iv, but it tends to bottom above the price low of wave IV ($50). Indicators are diverging to bullish favour within the scale of the correction. clear H&S forming, and we have made a strong base on top of the lower wedge trendline. Bullish EW counts have been playing out accurately assuming the 339 low was followed by a primary.
Not just ema; everything on the weekly chart is different from 2013. All the indicators. Everything is diverged and disjoined. So I don't see why there would automatically be any similarity.
There is also a very strong argument for Bitcoin Being on a grand cycle Wave 4 EW retracement. With Wave 3 starting at around $5 in May 2012, and terminating at $1160 in Dec 2013, as per DanV (if anyone hasn't seen his charts/videos I suggest they give his name a google). If this were to pan out, then a 62% (textbook wave 4 retracement ratio) retracement would equate with an ultimate bottom price of around $260, which is of course the price of the April 2013 high. It would all be textbook stuff if it pans out this way and from the short time I have been learning TA and watching Bitcoin, Bitcoin does tend to adhere to textbook TA principles. Granted, zoom in to the short term charts and try to start applying these TA principles there and expect to get chopped about like crazy. But over the bigger picture, Bitcoin likes to tick all the TA 101 boxes.
Don't say it doesn't, cos it does.
Even IF this was the reversal, why does everyone want to compare the recovery to the recovery in 2013? People are in a rush to make exact comparisons to the 2013 chart. "First itll go 600 for 3 weeks, then 800 for 3 weeks, then 1000, then the moon, bla bla bla". Why? What makes 2013 so special? That was a completely different chart. The 1W EMAs were up. This time they are down.
Why not? because EMA is down?
Even IF this was the reversal, why does everyone want to compare the recovery to the recovery in 2013? People are in a rush to make exact comparisons to the 2013 chart. "First itll go 600 for 3 weeks, then 800 for 3 weeks, then 1000, then the moon, bla bla bla". Why? What makes 2013 so special? That was a completely different chart. The 1W EMAs were up. This time they are down.
Why not? because EMA is down?
Even IF this was the reversal, why does everyone want to compare the recovery to the recovery in 2013? People are in a rush to make exact comparisons to the 2013 chart. "First itll go 600 for 3 weeks, then 800 for 3 weeks, then 1000, then the moon, bla bla bla". Why? What makes 2013 so special? That was a completely different chart. The 1W EMAs were up. This time they are down.
Rule of thirds will bring us to 466. It may stall if low volatility keeps us down in the Fifties at 450. If 466 doesn't hold then we'll stay sideways between Chinese magic 444 and rule of thirds 433. If it holds, then possible run up to the Chinese magic 555 before Western bears rule of thirds us back to 533, then back to Fifties level 500. Bitcoin speculation is ruled by magical thinking.
I seen 666 going steady for a while (months ago). I think it means something
Rule of thirds will bring us to 466. It may stall if low volatility keeps us down in the Fifties at 450. If 466 doesn't hold then we'll stay sideways between Chinese magic 444 and rule of thirds 433. If it holds, then possible run up to the Chinese magic 555 before Western bears rule of thirds us back to 533, then back to Fifties level 500. Bitcoin speculation is ruled by magical thinking.
I seen 666 going steady for a while (months ago). I think it means something
Rule of thirds will bring us to 466. It may stall if low volatility keeps us down in the Fifties at 450. If 466 doesn't hold then we'll stay sideways between Chinese magic 444 and rule of thirds 433. If it holds, then possible run up to the Chinese magic 555 before Western bears rule of thirds us back to 533, then back to Fifties level 500. Bitcoin speculation is ruled by magical thinking.
The Chinese don't trade in US dollars. But I remember 4444¥ being a sticking point.
Rule of thirds will bring us to 466. It may stall if low volatility keeps us down in the Fifties at 450. If 466 doesn't hold then we'll stay sideways between Chinese magic 444 and rule of thirds 433. If it holds, then possible run up to the Chinese magic 555 before Western bears rule of thirds us back to 533, then back to Fifties level 500. Bitcoin speculation is ruled by magical thinking.
bear is over. +1 for bull. Broke out of channel last few days. Now sideways for a bit i think. Run up to 580usd can now happen any day i think. If we are then stable without much dumping in the 500s and 600s we will see 800 and 1000 very, very soon after that. Don't be left behind.
yes, feathercoin _DEFIANTLY_ is the best...
I'm not sute about BTC but GooG is inflated (loads of fake promises) ... I will sell that shi5
Something defiantly is happening behind the scenes. Specially on the feathercoin forum.
id say it has to pass 466 and also dip ( no lower than the 420 technical indicator ) to say that its trending up
Seems like a lot of negative news has settled, as well as the price. I've heard about US based exchanges starting up and other things like the feds allowing political contributions in BTC.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/08/fec-approves-donations-in-bitcoin/8857603/
Does all this add up to a soon coming bull run? Thoughts?
Yes http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/08/fec-approves-donations-in-bitcoin/8857603/
Does all this add up to a soon coming bull run? Thoughts?
Slow is good, but it will accelerate thru this summer.
I guess that accelerating speed gonna be really slow
Personally I think, not backed by any analysis, that this year is going to be slow.
A slow moving is really bad, speculators may get tired and leave
Slow is good, but it will accelerate thru this summer.
Seems like a lot of negative news has settled, as well as the price. I've heard about US based exchanges starting up and other things like the feds allowing political contributions in BTC.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/08/fec-approves-donations-in-bitcoin/8857603/
Does all this add up to a soon coming bull run? Thoughts?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/08/fec-approves-donations-in-bitcoin/8857603/
Does all this add up to a soon coming bull run? Thoughts?
I think so. As 4chan would say, the summerfags are coming! Also, lots of positive news lately (MIT, VC investment, political donations) and people who first heard about it a few months ago have had time to see it perform relatively stably. Anecdotally, I've seen more people in Philadelphia interested in acquiring bitcoin lately.
Time will tell
Personally I think, not backed by any analysis, that this year is going to be slow.
A slow moving is really bad, speculators may get tired and leave
Not yet. Nothing to indicate we are even remotely close to one.
Personally I think, not backed by any analysis, that this year is going to be slow.
Personally I think, not backed by any analysis, that this year is going to be slow.
What I've noticed is in the past 4 days there has been a sudden action driven entirely by China, which started immediately following the 'joint exchange announcement'. So either China thinks everything is going to be ok or there is some kind of leveraged short covering before they cease margin trading. In either case, given the Chinese nature of it, I don't really trust it to end up turning into anything long term.
Seems like a lot of negative news has settled, as well as the price. I've heard about US based exchanges starting up and other things like the feds allowing political contributions in BTC.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/08/fec-approves-donations-in-bitcoin/8857603/
Does all this add up to a soon coming bull run? Thoughts?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/08/fec-approves-donations-in-bitcoin/8857603/
Does all this add up to a soon coming bull run? Thoughts?
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