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Topic: Are you expecting a crash when Avalon Asics will be released? (Read 2947 times)

sr. member
Activity: 697
Merit: 272
Slimcoin - the Proof of Donation inventors!
You are right in a way, from my point of view.
I guess that as much Asics there are as much the owners of the asics will have to sell bitcoins to cover their expenses and initial investments.
By now it seems like they are not selling all the BTCs they are mining because they don't need to, they are making 46% of profit at the moment (at least I read so in blockchain.info statistics). But once there are a lot of asics sold being the number of mined BTCs each month the same, they will have to sell more and more BTCs, or the price of BTCs has to go on rising. Let's see.
 


Seems like it's not a good idea to invest in all those Asic shares now ... Most of them will probably lost money at the end of the year, prolly overrated.
But people are going crazy about it, and it must be taken into account.

Generally speaking I'm afraid that because of the huge bubble we experienced at the beginning of this year, it might be that everything: altcoins, Ascics shares and even bitcoins themselves will slowly go down for the rest of the year.

sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
You are right in a way, from my point of view.
I guess that as much Asics there are as much the owners of the asics will have to sell bitcoins to cover their expenses and initial investments.
By now it seems like they are not selling all the BTCs they are mining because they don't need to, they are making 46% of profit at the moment (at least I read so in blockchain.info statistics). But once there are a lot of asics sold being the number of mined BTCs each month the same, they will have to sell more and more BTCs, or the price of BTCs has to go on rising. Let's see.
 


Seems like it's not a good idea to invest in all those Asic shares now ... Most of them will probably lost money at the end of the year, prolly overrated.
But people are going crazy about it, and it must be taken into account.
hero member
Activity: 873
Merit: 1007
Seems OP is still recovering from 420
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
many miners mine and hold to sell at higher prices later.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
No. There is actually a very strong argument against a crash as a result of the Avalon ASIC release in particular in the case of batch #3. Why? Because I would not be surprised if in many cases the BTC that the ASIC will produce have already been sold., and their owners are in many cases flush with fiat and effectively "short" BTC.  They will look at their ASICs as a way to replace their BTC that were, in some cases, prematurely sold during the boom. On the other hand the GPU miners they displace had substantial electricity costs payable in fiat. The net effect can very well be less BTC hitting the market than before.

In short I would expect that the Avalon ASICs may end up in some of Bitcoin's strongest hands, or even in hands that are weak because they have to few BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 697
Merit: 272
Slimcoin - the Proof of Donation inventors!
You are right in a way, from my point of view.
I guess that as much Asics there are as much the owners of the asics will have to sell bitcoins to cover their expenses and initial investments.
By now it seems like they are not selling all the BTCs they are mining because they don't need to, they are making 46% of profit at the moment (at least I read so in blockchain.info statistics). But once there are a lot of asics sold being the number of mined BTCs each month the same, they will have to sell more and more BTCs, or the price of BTCs has to go on rising. Let's see.
 
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
When the first device will be received, the owner will mine like crazy, and the supply will increase.

Please. The difficulty adjusts so that the same number of coins are adjusted per unit of time. The supply will not increase.

More hashing power can only be good for the network.

It will increase in the extreme short term. The first few blocks would be generated faster so for a short period of time there would be marginally more bitcoins. Of course its unlikely that everybody turns on their asics at the same time.

A small increase in the extreme short term before the network corrects will do precisely nothing. Even if every newly mined coin was immediately sold at market prices the effect would be between minor and insignificant.


Agreed, but still to be fair it was necessary to point it out.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
The supply will not increase, the amount of coins created will be the same.
This
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Quote
OP please try to understand Bitcoin before you talk OK?

This ! Hahahaha
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Thanks for reminding me.  I forgot to sell when GPU mining took over from CPU's.  Am I too late?
sr. member
Activity: 358
Merit: 250
OP you really have no clue what you're talking about, my advice is to stop talking now while you're behind. Saying things like
"I probably understood it better than you will even in your whole life."
just makes it more of a facepalm
member
Activity: 71
Merit: 10
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
OP please try to understand Bitcoin before you talk OK?

I probably understood it better than you will even in your whole life.


The market just needs a trigger to fall, and this can be it. Or maybe not.

Quote
and the supply will increase


Nuff said.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
I call no change in value due to ASIC.

The coins do not increase in numbers.

The difficulty in making them will increase, but so will the ability to deal with the difficulty.

Either it will cancel itself out, or increase because of a preceived value-difficulty correlation.
sd
hero member
Activity: 730
Merit: 500
When the first device will be received, the owner will mine like crazy, and the supply will increase.

Please. The difficulty adjusts so that the same number of coins are adjusted per unit of time. The supply will not increase.

More hashing power can only be good for the network.

It will increase in the extreme short term. The first few blocks would be generated faster so for a short period of time there would be marginally more bitcoins. Of course its unlikely that everybody turns on their asics at the same time.

A small increase in the extreme short term before the network corrects will do precisely nothing. Even if every newly mined coin was immediately sold at market prices the effect would be between minor and insignificant.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
When the first device will be received, the owner will mine like crazy, and the supply will increase.

Please. The difficulty adjusts so that the same number of coins are adjusted per unit of time. The supply will not increase.

More hashing power can only be good for the network.

It will increase in the extreme short term. The first few blocks would be generated faster so for a short period of time there would be marginally more bitcoins. Of course its unlikely that everybody turns on their asics at the same time.
sd
hero member
Activity: 730
Merit: 500
When the first device will be received, the owner will mine like crazy, and the supply will increase.

Please. The difficulty adjusts so that the same number of coins are adjusted per unit of time. The supply will not increase.

More hashing power can only be good for the network.
full member
Activity: 143
Merit: 100
Not gonna happen.

Agree, the only way a market effect could be noticed is if a group of miners, get a large chunk of coins mined each day and either hoard/sell a disproportionate number of new coins then what is currently the average. 

Even then each day creates more total coins lessening the effect the coins produced each day effect the whole.

Isn't the average mining at 3600 per 24 hours?  So if someone had 50% of the minning power, they could only hoard/sell 1800 a day.  Which I suppose at the right time could mess with the market a little bit but traders with more coin have tried and failed numerous times.

sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Not gonna happen.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
OP please try to understand Bitcoin before you talk OK?

I probably understood it better than you will even in your whole life.


The market just needs a trigger to fall, and this can be it. Or maybe not.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
The supply will not increase, the amount of coins created will be the same.

U r wrong. For a short period of time (2016-block step) coins will be generated faster.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
OP please try to understand Bitcoin before you talk OK?
member
Activity: 73
Merit: 10
It's a self regulating protocol. Roughly the same number of coin will be generated, just the difficulty is going to skyrocket even more.
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
Is it going to be a crash?

Avalon or not, miners will want to sell at current juicy prices.  So, perhaps not a crash, but a slow decline.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Is this some sort of waybackmachine? Or replace avalon with bfl?
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
The supply will not increase, the amount of coins created will be the same.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
Is it going to be a crash?

No. Everything you wrote is not valid.
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
When the first device will be received, the owner will mine like crazy, and the supply will increase.
The early one will know that soon, everyone will receive their own one, and want to sell it fast, in order to make some profit (because they invested a lot).
The investors that bet that the price of bitcoins was going to skyrocket to 1000 USD will see that a lot of new bitcoins are being sold, and the demand is the same (or even decreasing, because they will be afraid by those new btc that come way too fast).
Then, more people will have Avalon Asics and want to sell btc, and the investors who wanted to make some profits will probably sell aswell in order to cut their losses.

Is it going to be a crash?
Aren't you a joker?
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
When the first device will be received, the owner will mine like crazy, and the supply will increase.
The early one will know that soon, everyone will receive their own one, and want to sell it fast, in order to make some profit (because they invested a lot).
The investors that bet that the price of bitcoins was going to skyrocket to 1000 USD will see that a lot of new bitcoins are being sold, and the demand is the same (or even decreasing, because they will be afraid by those new btc that come way too fast).
Then, more people will have Avalon Asics and want to sell btc, and the investors who wanted to make some profits will probably sell aswell in order to cut their losses.

Is it going to be a crash?
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