Around which year will the production per block will get halved?

odolvlobo

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Quote from: ArticMine on May 19, 2014, 04:18:01 PM

Quote from: railzand on May 19, 2014, 02:26:20 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on May 19, 2014, 01:13:34 PM

Woo Hoo, another Halving Day! The next one will be epic. We should start preparing now!

What was it like last time round?

Initially in late 2012 not much happened, but then we got the first bull market rise of 2013 of around 20x increase in BTC/USD.

More importantly, the difficulty fell only slightly until ASICs came out in February and then it went through the roof.

railzand

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Lux e tenebris

Quote from: ArticMine on May 19, 2014, 04:18:01 PM

Quote from: railzand on May 19, 2014, 02:26:20 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on May 19, 2014, 01:13:34 PM

Woo Hoo, another Halving Day! The next one will be epic. We should start preparing now!

What was it like last time round?

Initially in late 2012 not much happened, but then we got the first bull market rise of 2013 of around 20x increase in BTC/USD.

Good that's good. Thanks!

jonald_fyookball

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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political

Quote from: timk225 on May 23, 2014, 12:34:47 AM

I think that after the next halving day, mining rates will begin to drop along with the difficulty, because it is hard enough to make money mining now, and no one will invest money for HALF the potential reward.

Mining has been competitive for a while.

Haven't you noticed rig prices are also dropping tremendously?
Your satoshi buys a lot more ghS than it did, and that trend
will probably continue for a while, so people may keep buying
new hashing power.

timk225

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I think that after the next halving day, mining rates will begin to drop along with the difficulty, because it is hard enough to make money mining now, and no one will invest money for HALF the potential reward.

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: railzand on May 19, 2014, 02:26:20 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on May 19, 2014, 01:13:34 PM

Woo Hoo, another Halving Day! The next one will be epic. We should start preparing now!

What was it like last time round?

Initially in late 2012 not much happened, but then we got the first bull market rise of 2013 of around 20x increase in BTC/USD.

jonald_fyookball

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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on May 19, 2014, 11:30:08 AM

The time between halvings isn't measured in days it is measured in blocks; the subsidy is reduced by half every 210,000 blocks. The next halving will be at block 420,000. We have 118,426 blocks to go. If the network hashrate was stable than 144 blocks would be produced each day. To reach block 420,000 would take 822 days. The network however is still growing and thus on average more than 144 blocks are produced each day. As long as the average hashrate between now and the halving increases (which is almost certainly true) then the halving will occur earlier. How much earlier depends on the average change in hashrate between now and block 420,000.

Growth Per Difficulty Period | Halving Date
0% | 8/18/2016
10% | 6/04/2016
20% | 4/03/2016
30% | 2/10/2016

My guess is we reach block 420,000 in the summer of 2016.

By the way, DeathandTaxes, congrats on 15,000 posts. (Thats a lot of posts!)
Many people really appreciate your involvement in the bitcoin forum.

jonald_fyookball

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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political

Quote from: odolvlobo on May 19, 2014, 01:13:34 PM

Woo Hoo, another Halving Day! The next one will be epic. We should start preparing now!

How so? By loading up the ol stash?

railzand

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Quote from: odolvlobo on May 19, 2014, 01:13:34 PM

Woo Hoo, another Halving Day! The next one will be epic. We should start preparing now!

What was it like last time round?

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: yogi on May 19, 2014, 11:26:14 AM

http://bitcoinclock.com/

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-18 21:30:50 UTC (117 weeks, 3 days, 7 hours)

I think this is about as accurate as we can be, this far out.

That assumes 0% hashrate growth between now and block 420,000. That is probably the least likely scenario. The date will depend on what is the average time between blocks which will depend on the average hashrate growth between now and the halving. A hashrate growth of 10% to 20% seems more likely than 0%. That moves the range to March to June 2016.

IIOII

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See this useful thread for an approximation: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/chart-bitcoin-inflation-vs-time-130619

Quote from: whitslack on December 13, 2012, 10:08:08 AM

But I think we're a bit ahead right now.

odolvlobo

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Woo Hoo, another Halving Day! The next one will be epic. We should start preparing now!

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

The time between halvings isn't measured in days it is measured in blocks; the subsidy is reduced by half every 210,000 blocks. The next halving will be at block 420,000. We have 118,426 blocks to go. If the network hashrate was stable than 144 blocks would be produced each day. To reach block 420,000 would take 822 days. The network however is still growing and thus on average more than 144 blocks are produced each day. As long as the average hashrate between now and the halving increases (which is almost certainly true) then the halving will occur earlier. How much earlier depends on the average change in hashrate between now and block 420,000.

Growth Per Difficulty Period | Halving Date
0% | 8/18/2016
10% | 6/04/2016
20% | 4/03/2016
30% | 2/10/2016

My guess is we reach block 420,000 in the summer of 2016.

yogi

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Hamster ate my bitcoin

http://bitcoinclock.com/

cr1776

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Summer 2016 (northern hemisphere) is an estimate. (June-Sept). It depends on how quickly the network grows as to exactly when.

TrailingComet

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1 jan 2016

hensi

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TheSlimShady

1block= 25btc, when will it become 12.5btc/block?

Topic: Around which year will the production per block will get halved? (Read 1111 times)